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Florence

  • 08-09-2018 10:18am
    #1
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,698 Mod ✭✭✭✭ star gazer


    Florence is forecast to be a Major Hurricane as it approaches the East coast of the US. It did briefly reach Category four winds a few days ago, confounding forecasters, but has since been weakened by shear to a tropical storm for now. It should be back to Hurricane strength during tomorrow. There's still some time to go before greater certainty comes as to whether it does make landfall on the East coast of the US and where but it is forecast to be a very dangerous and very destructive Hurricane so erring on the side of caution is wise. There's still time for the forecast track to shift but the window for a benign outcome is narrowing.

    North Carolina State of Emergency https://twitter.com/breakingweather/status/1038227298305146880

    025318_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
    Graphics archive
    LOCATION...24.5N 54.2W
    ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM SE OF BERMUDA
    ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
    nhc
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 08/0900Z 24.5N 54.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
    12H 08/1800Z 24.6N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
    24H 09/0600Z 24.6N 56.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
    36H 09/1800Z 24.6N 57.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
    48H 10/0600Z 24.9N 59.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
    72H 11/0600Z 26.0N 64.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
    96H 12/0600Z 28.0N 70.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
    120H 13/0600Z 30.9N 75.8W 125 KT 145 MPH


«13456710

Comments

  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,698 Mod ✭✭✭✭ star gazer


    Florence is better organised but still impacted by drier air. Expected to start rapid intensification in about 24 hours but should be a Hurricane again even before then.
    min pressure 995mb, forward movement at 11km/h 7mph. max sustained wind 100km/h 65mph. nhc
    863
    WTNT41 KNHC 081453
    TCDAT1

    Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 37
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
    1100 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

    Florence has undergone a dramatic structural evolution just within
    the past 6 hours or so. Vertical shear has decreased just enough
    for the storm to take on a more symmetric shape, with convection
    developing in a ring around the low-level center, and an elongated
    band wrapping around to the northeastern part of the circulation.
    The convection has waned a little bit in intensity, however, due to
    the presence of dry air, and Dvorak estimates support maintaining
    an initial intensity of 55 kt for now. A NOAA P-3 aircraft is
    approaching Florence now on a research mission and should provide
    some useful data to better assess the storm's intensity.

    Some parts further to the North of the current track at potential landfall have already soaked up a lot of water with increased flooding potential were significant Florence precipitation to fall there.
    https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1038433526331441154


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Still some potential that it could remain just offshore and recurve but most guidance pointing at Florence impacting the SE coast. High confidence of becoming a dangerous major Hurricane.

    https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/1038465785231024128

    https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1038464607659143168

    https://twitter.com/AWxNYC/status/1038455264045932544

    https://twitter.com/NWS/status/1038462806595719168

    https://twitter.com/AlexJLamers/status/1038443534221828097


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Latest ECM showing consistency in general track. Beginning to show Florence stall ( or make slow progress ) on the coast which would not be good news, can only imagine the amount of rain it would dump. GFS showing a brush with the coast and a sort of a meandering pirouette before moving off in a NE'ly direction towards Newfounland and up towards Greenland.

    XBZRLCK.png

    92Ascbn.png

    6gDGIGT.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58




  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,698 Mod ✭✭✭✭ star gazer


    As expected, it's starting to strengthen. Tropical Storm Florence is up to 110km/h 70mph max sustained wind with minimum central pressure down to 989mb and moving West 270 at 7km/h. It is still expected to intensify rapidly soon and within about 48 hours be a Major Hurricane. The track is nudged a little North on this run so potentially heading towards the border of North Carolina and South Carolina, both of which have declared a state of emergency.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Entering an environment low in shear and high SST's and higher temperatures in depth ,Florence projected to be a Major Cat 4 Hurricane at landfall ( or near landfall ). See below, the strongest Atlantic tropical storm in two decades forecast by the NHC from 5 days out.

    https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1038492065242464260


    NHC
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 08/2100Z 24.6N 54.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
    12H 09/0600Z 24.6N 55.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
    24H 09/1800Z 24.7N 56.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
    36H 10/0600Z 25.0N 58.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
    48H 10/1800Z 25.4N 60.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
    72H 11/1800Z 26.9N 66.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
    96H 12/1800Z 29.5N 72.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
    120H 13/1800Z 32.5N 77.0W 120 KT 140 MPH


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,202 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    The 06Z SHIPS has southerly shear increasing again over the last 24 hrs before landfall, so hopefully that plus the slither of low ocean heat content and continuing dry mid levels will help temper its intensity by then.

    http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2018/al062018/stext/18090906AL0618_ships.txt

    2018AL06_OHCNFCST_201809090000.GIF


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,202 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    The eye is trying to form

    diag20180909T050513_amsr2_37.png

    diag20180909T050515_amsr2_85.png


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,698 Mod ✭✭✭✭ star gazer


    Florence is still a tropical storm but expected to become a Hurricane again today with, as mentioned above, it looking better organised now. Still 989mb. 110km/h moving at 9km/h. The track on five days has it a little North into North Carolina but remember it could still end up quite a distance away from that this far out.

    vis0.gif
    Florence


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Latest imagery, Florence getting organised. ECM and GFS slight difference on track but both showing Florence stalling just inland or on the coast for 4-5 days .

    Sat Loop including lightning.

    ukzMD7h.gif

    LIY2j3v.gif

    epbPY8p.gif

    qzSdUrk.png

    kvmhrnb.png

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 09/0900Z 24.5N 55.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
    12H 09/1800Z 24.6N 56.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
    24H 10/0600Z 24.8N 58.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
    36H 10/1800Z 25.3N 60.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
    48H 11/0600Z 26.1N 63.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
    72H 12/0600Z 28.2N 69.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
    96H 13/0600Z 31.3N 74.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
    120H 14/0600Z 34.4N 77.9W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND


    NHC


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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,698 Mod ✭✭✭✭ star gazer


    Hurricane Florence is gaining strength. Maximum Sustained Wind 120km/h 75mph, Minimum Central Pressure 984mb and forward movement 9km/h 6mph.
    The track is broadly the same as the previous NHC guidance.
    It's forecast to be a Category 4 Hurricane in about 2 days.
    There is also a worry that it slows or even stalls at around landfall in five days time and all the flooding implications that go with that.

    Virginia has also declared a State of Emergency.

    For anyone in the potentially impacted area or for people curious:
    Hurricane safety
    Hurricane ready


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,447 ✭✭✭ pad199207


    star gazer wrote: »
    Hurricane Florence is gaining strength. Maximum Sustained Wind 120km/h 75mph, Minimum Central Pressure 984mb and forward movement 9km/h 6mph.
    The track is broadly the same as the previous NHC guidance.
    It's forecast to be a Category 4 Hurricane in about 2 days.
    There is also a worry that it slows or even stalls at around landfall in five days time and all the flooding implications that go with that.

    Virginia has also declared a State of Emergency.

    For anyone in the potentially impacted area or for people curious:
    Hurricane safety
    Hurricane ready

    Have a few friends in a place called Litchfield south of Myrtle Beach. Think they could escape the worst .


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,698 Mod ✭✭✭✭ star gazer


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Have a few friends in a place called Litchfield south of Myrtle Beach. Think they could escape the worst .

    It's too early to tell. While adjustments have been pushing the forecast Florence landfall North it could still come back Southwards again. With the NHC graphic in the opening post, the cone is not the area of impact of the Hurricane, it's the area where the center of Florence might end up being and even that isn't a 100% garauntee, especially almost 5 days out. Here's more information on it: nhc


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,818 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Looks like it should maintain a vertically stacked near perfect profile as it approaches landfall given the lack of wind shear on the projected path.

    This is turning in to a fairly serious situation.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Florence a hurricane again Cat 1 with winds detected by a Hurricane Hunter of 70mphs. Pressure down to 984 mb.



    A ragged eye detected with an almost complete eyewall.

    Cloud tops getting colder. Lightning detected around the core.

    fm4hCLW.gif

    mqrUWc4.gif

    WlS1xeE.gif

    A very strong ridge set to form over NW Atlantic steering Florence in towards land and when it reaches land it is set to slow due to a ridge over land. the NHC noting that this is concerning as on day 5 Florence could stop moving leading to serious heavy rain bringing about flood hazzards.

    The NHC saying
    In
    combination with low vertical wind shear and progressively warmer
    waters near 29C, this structure is a blueprint for rapid
    intensification. Almost all of the intensity guidance is showing at
    least one period of rapid strengthening during the next few days,
    which is rather rare. The NHC wind speed forecast is raised in the
    first couple of days following the guidance trend, then is very
    similar to the previous one. All indications are that Florence will
    be an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane while it moves over
    the western Atlantic toward the southeastern United States.


    C15hcSP.png


    NHC


    1. There is an increasing risk of two life-threatening impacts from
    Florence: storm surge at the coast and freshwater flooding from a
    prolonged heavy rainfall event inland. While it is too soon to
    determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of these
    impacts, interests at the coast and inland from South Carolina into
    the mid-Atlantic region should closely monitor the progress of
    Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and follow
    any advice given by local officials.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 09/1500Z 24.4N 56.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
    12H 10/0000Z 24.5N 57.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
    24H 10/1200Z 24.9N 59.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
    36H 11/0000Z 25.6N 61.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
    48H 11/1200Z 26.4N 64.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
    72H 12/1200Z 29.0N 70.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
    96H 13/1200Z 32.2N 75.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
    120H 14/1200Z 35.0N 78.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,818 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Lots of great information and material on the Weather Channel, live stream



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,698 Mod ✭✭✭✭ star gazer


    Hurricane Florence has stronger winds of 140km/h, 85mph in the latest nhc run. 975mb.
    The track is a little bit South and it speeds up forward motion on day 3 and 4 and slows down on day five inland which could have a stronger Hurricane make landfall and then more rainfall from a lingering Florence.
    Discussion 42
    ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
    TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

    Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 42
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
    500 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

    The last reconnaissance fix indicated that the pressure had fallen
    to about 978 mb with Florence, a drop of about 6 mb in 4 hours, with
    uncontaminated SFMR winds of about 70 kt. Since then, the satellite
    presentation has continued to improve, with intensifying deep
    convection near the center. Thus the wind speed is set to 75 kt on
    this advisory.

    Radar data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter indicated that there were
    still a few breaks in the eyewall, possibly allowing some dry air to
    mix into the core. This structure has potentially kept Florence
    from intensifying rapidly so far. It is likely, however, that the
    eyewall will close soon with low environmental shear present,
    resulting in a faster intensification rate. The guidance is
    remarkably well clustered, with all of the hurricane models showing
    category 4 strength within 48 hours, which is uncommon given the
    current intensity. The new forecast continues to show rapid
    intensification and is increased 5 or 10 kt at most time periods,
    but it is still not as high as the Florida State Superensemble or
    the NOAA corrected consensus models. It is worth noting that the
    model guidance is also significantly increasing the size of
    Florence's wind field over the next few days, and the official
    forecast reflects this trend.


    The fixes from the aircraft indicate that Florence hasn't gained
    much latitude yet, and continues moving westward at about 6 kt.
    There is no change to the synoptic reason as a very strong ridge is
    forecast to build over the northwestern Atlantic during the next few
    days. This pattern should steer Florence west-northwestward at a
    much faster forward speed by Tuesday. On Wednesday, the hurricane
    will likely turn northwestward and slow down somewhat due to another
    ridge forming over the Ohio Valley. The most notable change from
    the previous advisory is that most of the models are showing a
    faster motion in 3 or 4 days, which unfortunately increases the risk
    of a destructive hurricane landfall. The GFS and its ensemble mean
    are outliers from the main model envelope, showing the system near
    the Outer Banks, while the rest of the guidance is well to the
    southwest. While a near-miss isn't impossible given the spread of
    the ECMWF Ensemble, there is much more support for a track to the
    southwest, especially considering the poleward bias of the GFS thus
    far this season. Therefore, the official track forecast is shifted a
    little bit to the southwest, and is very close to the
    corrected-consensus models.


    The NOAA G-IV jet is conducting a synoptic surveillance mission this
    afternoon to gather data near and around Florence for assimilation
    into the numerical models, and these missions will continue through
    Tuesday. In addition, upper-air stations across portions of the
    central and eastern U.S. are conducting special 0600 UTC and 1800
    UTC radiosonde launches to collect extra data for the numerical
    models. Hopefully these data will help improve the track and
    intensity forecasts.

    Key Messages:

    1. There is an increasing risk of two life-threatening impacts from
    Florence: storm surge at the coast and freshwater flooding from a
    prolonged heavy rainfall event inland. While it is too soon to
    determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of these
    impacts, interests at the coast and inland from South Carolina into
    the mid-Atlantic region should closely monitor the progress of
    Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and follow
    any advice given by local officials.

    2. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
    Coast will continue this week. These swells will result in
    life-threatening surf and rip currents.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 09/2100Z 24.4N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
    12H 10/0600Z 24.6N 58.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
    24H 10/1800Z 25.1N 60.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
    36H 11/0600Z 25.9N 63.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
    48H 11/1800Z 27.0N 66.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
    72H 12/1800Z 30.3N 72.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
    96H 13/1800Z 33.5N 77.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
    120H 14/1800Z 35.0N 79.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND

    $$
    Forecaster Blake


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,818 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    18z GFS is moving toward the ECM with a more direct hit rather than glancing blow in the Carolinas it had been progging to this point...

    gfsna-0-102.png?18


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,818 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    The eye wall is forming now.

    53607559.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,818 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    New NOAA advisory.

    663
    WTNT41 KNHC 100248
    TCDAT1

    Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 43
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
    1100 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

    Florence's satellite appearance has continued to improve quite
    markedly since the previous advisory. An eye was evident in GOES-16
    high-resolution infrared imagery and other channels between
    2300-0000 UTC, but it became cloud covered immediately thereafter
    due to a strong burst of deep convection in the southern and eastern
    eyewall where cloud tops colder than -80C and an abundance of
    lightning activity was observed. Since that time, the CDO has
    expanded and become more circular, outflow has increased and become
    more symmetrical, and an eye has begun to re-appear. The initial
    intensity has been increased to 80 kt for this advisory based on a
    subjective Dvorak intensity estimate of T4.5/77 kt from SAB and NHC
    objective intensity estimates ranging from 77 kt to 87 kt.

    The initial motion estimate is 280/06 kt. Once again, there is no
    significant change to the previous forecast track or synoptic
    reasoning. The models appear to be getting better dialed in on both
    the location and strength of the developing blocking ridge in the
    vicinity of Bermuda during the next 4 days as the mid-latitude flow
    amplifies across the CONUS and the northwestern Atlantic. In fact,
    the global models are now in very good agreement on forecasting
    Florence's upper-level mass outflow being deposited to the north and
    east of the hurricane, which will act to further strengthen the
    blocking ridge and help to drive the hurricane northwestward toward
    the southeastern U.S. coastal region. The new NHC model guidance is
    even more tightly packed about the previous forecast track, with
    less than a 90 n mi cross-track spread at 72 h and less than 120 n
    mi spread at 96 h, just prior to expected landfall. Therefore, the
    new official advisory track is essentially just an update and
    extension of the previous forecast, and lies between the nearly
    juxtaposed HCCA and FSSE corrected consensus track models.

    Now that Florence has developed an inner-core ring of deep
    convection, which has insulated the eye from intrusions of dry air,
    rapid intensification appears likely to begin soon and continue for
    the next 36 hours or so due to the expected very low vertical wind
    shear conditions, dual outflow jet pattern that will be developing,
    and very warm SSTs of 29-29.5 deg C beneath the hurricane. The most
    favorable combination of the aforementioned factors will occur in
    about 48 h, and that's when Florence is likely to achieve its
    maximum intensity. After 72 hours, the wind shear is expected to
    increase to around 10-15 kt from the south or southwest, and the
    dual outflow pattern is forecast to change to only a single poleward
    outflow pattern. This slight degradation in the upper-level
    environment, along with slightly cooler SSTs, is expected to result
    in a gradual weakening of the powerful cyclone. However, Florence is
    still forecast to be near category-4 strength when the dangerous
    hurricane makes landfall. The official intensity forecast is an
    average of the intensity forecast from the corrected consensus
    models HCCA and FSSE, with the latter explicitly forecasting a peak
    intensity of 134 kt in 72 hours. It is also worth noting that the
    model guidance is also significantly increasing the size of
    Florence's wind field over the next few days, and the official
    forecast reflects this trend.

    The NOAA G-IV jet will conduct another synoptic surveillance
    mission early Monday morning in support of the 1200 UTC model
    cycle, and these flights will continue through Tuesday. In addition,
    upper-air stations across portions of the central and eastern U.S.
    are conducting special 0600 UTC and 1800 UTC radiosonde launches to
    collect extra data for the numerical models. Hopefully these data
    will help improve the track and intensity forecasts.

    Key Messages:

    1. There is an increasing risk of two life-threatening impacts from
    Florence: storm surge at the coast and freshwater flooding from a
    prolonged heavy rainfall event inland. While it is too soon to
    determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of these
    impacts, interests at the coast and inland from South Carolina into
    the mid-Atlantic region should closely monitor the progress of
    Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and follow
    any advice given by local officials.

    2. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
    Coast will continue this week. These swells will result in
    life-threatening surf and rip currents.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 10/0300Z 24.6N 57.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
    12H 10/1200Z 24.9N 59.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
    24H 11/0000Z 25.6N 61.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
    36H 11/1200Z 26.5N 64.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
    48H 12/0000Z 27.8N 67.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
    72H 13/0000Z 31.2N 73.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
    96H 14/0000Z 34.0N 77.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
    120H 15/0000Z 35.2N 79.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND

    $$
    Forecaster Stewart

    Still CAT 1 but that won't last!

    Dms2jkNW0AI2Vvn.jpg

    This could well hit CAT 5 enroute.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,709 ✭✭✭ igCorcaigh


    Could be a lot of rain with this one if it stalls


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,202 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    al062018.18090918.gif

    I still think ocean heat content is a bit low for a Cat4 landfall, especially with shear increasing before then and still some dry air to get through. Thursday night/Friday morning our time is the expected landfall.

    00Z SHIPS
    http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2018/al062018/stext/18091000AL0618_ships.txt

    2018AL06_OHCNFCST_201809100000.GIF

    2018AL06_16KMGWVP_201809100300.GIF


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,847 ✭✭✭ Pa ElGrande




  • Registered Users Posts: 15,847 ✭✭✭✭ Villain


    She is going to leave her mark, question is just where exactly will she hit and how much water will she drop.

    https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1039055674095923200


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,698 Mod ✭✭✭✭ star gazer


    Hurricane Florence is strengthening rapidly. Category 2 Hurricane.
    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 44
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
    500 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

    ...FLORENCE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING...
    ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE VERY SOON...


    SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
    LOCATION...24.9N 58.9W
    ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SE OF BERMUDA
    ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES
    NHC

    One of the most important dangers to be aware of is the storm surge from Florence and where the maximum height of the impact will be is dependent on the ultimate track among other things. It'll be another day before forecasts come out. NHC Surge on twitter.

    Tropicaltidbits a new aircraft reconnaissance mission is en route to Florence.

    Water vapour for Florence.
    wv0.gif


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,698 Mod ✭✭✭✭ star gazer


    Florence is now a Major Hurricane again. There are likely to be significant evacuations associated with Florence in the coming days for areas most at risk. It's the water both from storm surge and flooding from rainfall that have caused the most fatalities in Hurricanes previously.
    SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
    LOCATION...25.0N 60.0W
    ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
    ABOUT 1240 MI...2000 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES
    NHC


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,818 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Now officially CAT 4 @130 MPH


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,698 Mod ✭✭✭✭ star gazer


    368
    WTNT61 KNHC 101556
    TCUAT1

    Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
    1200 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

    ...FLORENCE BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...

    Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Florence
    has continued to rapidly stregthen and has maximum sustained winds
    near 130 mph (195 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure based
    on data from the aircraft is 946 mb (27.93 inches).


    SUMMARY OF 1200 PM AST...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
    LOCATION...25.0N 60.2W
    ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
    ABOUT 1230 MI...1985 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...195 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES

    $$
    Forecaster Blake
    The question then becomes how much stronger does it get in the next two days.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,202 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    A nice eyewall is finally becoming apparent in the latest microwave scan.

    diag20180910T111717_ssmis17_85.png

    Hopefully the weakening shown by the SHIPS LGEM just before landfall (84 hrs) takes place. Still a destructive 107-kt Cat 3 but the cooler seas and increased shear would prevent a Cat 4.

    http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2018/al062018/stext/18091012AL0618_ships.txt


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  • Registered Users Posts: 37,334 ✭✭✭✭ Itssoeasy


    Wilmington is looking right in the firing line. Isn't there islands off the caronlina coast ? I'd be getting out of dodge fairly sharpish if I lived there. I assume that Anderson Cooper will be travelling to the area ?


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