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Florence

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    #272
    jimmynokia
    Registered Users Posts: 6,467 ✭✭✭jimmynokia


    Media already telling us its going to kill us all.. Usual BS.


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    #273
    Akrasia
    Registered Users Posts: 22,236 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    So they compared one fully-coupled model to the uncoupled GFS, which has been generating comical forecasts on Florence all week. It's not surprising to find such differences between these two models as the GFS has been that different to all the other models too! Is this paper real science or a wind-up?

    Real science.


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    #274
    star gazer
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,706 Mod ✭✭✭✭star gazer


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    To be fair the NHC do give great detail on local effects and warnings in the Public and Forecast Advisories and the Discussions, so personally I wouldn't have a problem there. It's just that sometimes their interpretations seem to tilt in favour of maintaining high intensities. They tend to go above the aircraft recon data for US-landfalling systems, quoting possible undersampling of max winds, yet with other storms they take the recon values at face value (e.g. Isaac yesterday). Not only recon figures, either.
    <snip>
    I think the current Saffir Simpson scales are good enough. The lower scales 1 and 2 are narrow enough to give a good indication of windspeed. Major scales 3-5 do get broader but at that stage it's getting serious enough that people need to get out and that's it. Destructive potential v windspeed is not a linear scale, but it really doesn't matter. For Cat 3 and above get out and stay out.

    This is the crux of it, if you have it at a lower Category 1 or 2, it's more difficult to have people "get out and stay out" which is where Florence ended up coming into landfall and yet the flooding is so bad as to warrant the evacuations. That then could be helped by distilling what the NHC has in advisories (and everyone else) into some measure of the windfield, rain and surge potential. So you have a wind scale plus.


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    #275
    irishrover99
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭irishrover99


    sdanseo wrote: »
    We might not have seen the last of Florence yet from an Irish perspective. NHC now expecting her to reintensify to a Tropical Storm east of Newfoundland and hurtle in our direction towards next weekend.

    At that stage, if it verified, it will have been a named system for more than 3 weeks.

    46b8277903ab35f2eeb06d67f158148a.png

    If things keeps going at this rate, we’ll have a new influx of tourists.

    Storm chasers 😀.


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    #276
    star gazer
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,706 Mod ✭✭✭✭star gazer


    It's heading slowly West, then North West through South Carolina for the next day or so but a lot of the heavy rains are still being pulled in over North Carolina.
    600mm for Newport, North Carolina so far. Around the 600mm is the storm rainfall total record for the State.

    Rainfall totals
    https://twitter.com/breakingweather/status/1040991145994727424
    https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1040998275892031488

    Rainband
    https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1041005078440751104

    There goes the neighbourhood
    https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1041006197200052226


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    #277
    Artane2002
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    sdanseo wrote: »
    We might not have seen the last of Florence yet from an Irish perspective. NHC now expecting her to reintensify to a Tropical Storm east of Newfoundland and hurtle in our direction towards next weekend.

    At that stage, if it verified, it will have been a named system for more than 3 weeks.

    Or ex-Florence but with tropical storm force winds ;)


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    #278
    MJohnston
    Registered Users Posts: 10,501 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    sdanseo wrote: »
    We might not have seen the last of Florence yet from an Irish perspective. NHC now expecting her to reintensify to a Tropical Storm east of Newfoundland and hurtle in our direction towards next weekend.

    At that stage, if it verified, it will have been a named system for more than 3 weeks.


    I don't know if it's recent or not, but there's a Storm Track section on Meteologix now, based on the ECM, and it shows a bit further out on the tracks than NOAA:


    https://meteologix.com/ie/cyclone-tracks/euro/grid-europe-africa/2018091512-240-florence.html


    Doesn't look like it'll bother us much:


    zCl7AW9.png


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    #279
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    The last advisory on Florence - now a Tropical Depression - has just been issued, It's picking up forward speed a bit.

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/160848.shtml


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    #280
    jimmynokia
    Registered Users Posts: 6,467 ✭✭✭jimmynokia


    https://www.met.ie/met-eireann-briefing-regarding-ex-tropical-storm-helene-at-midday-on-sunday-16th-september


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    #281
    REBELSAFC
    Registered Users Posts: 641 ✭✭✭REBELSAFC


    How apt that Emerald Isle was one of the wettest areas in North Carolina!!:D:D

    https://twitter.com/breakingweather/status/1040991145994727424


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    #282
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,513 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/1041708543198539776

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #283
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Florence Storm Totals up to today

    https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html
    ...Selected preliminary Storm Total Rainfall in inches from 200 PM
    EDT Thu Sep 13 through 1000 AM EDT Mon Sep 17...

    ...NORTH CAROLINA...
    ELIZABETHTOWN 6.2 NW 35.93 LISTED AS SUSPECT
    SWANSBORO 1.4 N 33.89
    GURGANUS .5 N 30.38
    HOFMANN FOREST RAWS 29.62
    HAMPSTEAD 4.1 WNW 29.52
    SUNNY POINT RAWS 27.44
    NATURE CONSERVANCY RAWS 27.40
    OAK ISLAND .9 ENE 26.98
    WILMINGTON 7.3 NE 26.58
    WHITEVILLE 6.1 NW 25.91
    NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NWS WFO 25.20
    MT. OLIVE 0.4 NW 25.04
    NEWPORT .2 SW 23.86
    TURNBULL CREEK RAWS 23.67
    EMERALD ISLE 0.2 ENE 23.49
    MAYSVILLE 3.4 SSW 23.07
    WILMINGTON INTL AP (KILM) 23.02
    LUMBERTON 2.3 NE 22.76
    YAUPON BEACH 22.07
    SUPPLY 4 NNW 21.92
    CEDAR POINT 0.9 WSW 21.73
    CROATAN RAWS 21.70
    BOLIVIA 7.8 SW 21.59
    MOREHEAD CITY .6 NW 21.20
    BACK ISLAND RAWS 20.87
    SANDY RUN RAWS 19.92
    FAYETTEVILLE (KFAY) 15.27
    PIEDMONT TRIAD INTL AP (KGSO) 6.99
    RALEIGH-DURHAM INTL AP (KRDU) 6.98
    CHARLOTTE/DOUGLAS INTL AP (KCLT) 6.13

    ...SOUTH CAROLINA...
    LORIS 2.9 WSW 23.63
    LORIS 1.4 ENE 23.18
    CHERAW WATER PLANT 22.58
    CAROLINA SAND HILLS RAWS (6E JEFFS 21.18
    CHESTERFIELD (MAIN ST) 19.94
    MARION 3 E RAWS 19.56
    DILLON 3.8 NW 18.38
    PAWLEYS ISLAND 2.6 N 15.75
    BENNETTSVILLE 1.2 SE 15.68
    MYRTLE BEACH 8.4 NNW 15.41
    HORRY RAWS 13.52
    MCBEE (USGS) 12.77
    GRAND STRAND AP (KCRE) 11.47
    HARTSVILLE 1.7 NW 11.39
    PEE DEE RIVER 11.29
    PAGELAND 3 SE 10.23
    CONWAY HADS 10.10
    FLORENCE AP (KFLO) 7.62
    ROCK HILL 2 W 7.48

    ...VIRGINIA...
    MEADOWS OF DAN 4.5 SW 10.56
    WILLIS 2.7 SE 9.86
    COPPER HILL 6.2 S 9.54
    CALLAWAY 4 WSW 8.84
    STUART 8.65
    CHECK 8.33
    FERRUM 6.60
    HORSE PASTURE 2 E 6.05
    WOOLWINE 5.86
    LAUREL FORK 5.65
    ROCKY MOUNT 4.3 NNW 5.65
    BENT MOUNTAIN 1 NNE 5.64
    SHAWSVILLE 4 E 5.60
    GALAX 5.25
    POAGES MILL 2 W 5.24
    DANVILLE REGL AP 5.00

    ...Selected preliminary Peak Wind gusts in miles per hour earlier
    in the event...

    ...GEORGIA...
    TYBEE ISLAND 1SSW 42
    FORT PULASKI 41
    AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD 39
    SAVANNAH AIRPORT 37
    STATESBORO 36

    ...NORTH CAROLINA...
    BUOY 30 SE NEW RIVER INLET 112
    FORT MACON 105
    WILMINGTON INT'L ARPT (KILM) 105
    CAPE LOOKOUT 97
    CEDAR ISLAND 1 N 89
    CHERRY POINT ASOS 87
    JACKSONVILLE ASOS 86
    FRISCO WOODS 80
    OCRACOKE 80
    HARKERS ISLAND 77
    DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY 76
    NORTH RIVER 75
    AVON 74
    BUXTON 73
    SNEADS FERRY 1 SSE 72
    NEW RIVER MCAS 70
    LUMBERTON MUNI 69
    FAYETTEVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT 66
    FORT BRAGG/SIMMO 66
    ROMINGER 2 SSW 61
    SILVERSTONE 1 SE 58
    RALEIGH-DURHAM INTL AIRPORT 47
    CHARLOTTE/DOUGLAS AIRPORT 34

    ...SOUTH CAROLINA...
    CHARLESTON 4 ESE 56
    FT. SUMTER RANGE FRONT LIGHT 55
    EDISTO BUOY 41004 54
    SHAW AFB 54
    CHARLESTON INTL AIRPORT 53
    CAPERS NEARSHORE BUOY 41029 51
    FLORENCE REGIONAL AIRPORT 50
    MYRTLE BEACH AFB 48
    DEWEES ISLAND 5 ESE 47
    MCENTIRE ANG 47
    PINOPOLIS 47
    SUMTER MUNICIPAL AIRPORT 47
    CAMDEN-WOODWARD FIELD 45
    SULLIVANS ISLAND 1 ENE 45
    WILD DUNES 2 WSW 45
    FOLLY BEACH 44
    BATTERY POINT 1 NNW 43
    BEAUFORT 43
    ORANGEBURG MUNICIPAL AIRPORT 40

    ...VIRGINIA...
    MOUNTAIN LAKE 48
    NORFOLK NAVAL AIR STATION 38
    PENHOOK 3 NE 38
    ROANOKE REGL AP 38
    BURKES GARDEN 37
    LANGLEY AFB 37
    NORFOLK AIRPORT 37
    VIRGINIA BEACH OCEANA 37
    MEADOWS OF DAN 1 W 35
    WALLOPS ISLAND 35
    DANVILLE REGL AP 33
    NEWPORT NEWS AIRPORT 33


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    #284
    sdanseo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Florence predicted to strengthen again in a couple of days:
    (30W is approx. mid-Atlantic)
    NOAA wrote:
    https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/tropical_advisories.php?storm=FLORENCE
    72H 20/1200Z 41.0N 53.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    96H 21/1200Z 40.7N 43.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    120H 22/1200Z 42.3N 34.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP


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    #285
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    This is why looking at wind speeds only is never a good idea!

    https://twitter.com/carlowweather/status/1041791010353934337?s=21


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    #286
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,089 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Sep 19, 2018

    Tropical Rainstorm Florence is moving east over the open waters of the northwestern Atlantic and is now positioned southeast of Nova Scotia. The storm will remain classified as a non-tropical storm system as it races eastward at 25-30 mph. The storm system will merge with a southward-moving cold front and the whole system will move eastward across the North Atlantic for the next few days. Eventually, the storm will intensify and become a very powerful wind and rainstorm as it approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom. What once was a powerful hurricane will bring strong, perhaps damaging winds and heavy rainfall to parts of Ireland and Northern Ireland and mostly the northern United Kingdom this weekend, mostly during Sunday.

    https://m.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic


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