Florence

star gazer · 14-09-2018 4:36pm

The hourly NHC update. Pressure rising as expected with landfall and some storm rainfall totals so far.

501
WTNT61 KNHC 141559
TCUAT1

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1200 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...FLORENCE WOBBLING SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA...

NOAA Doppler weather radar data and surface observations indicate
that the center of Hurricane Florence has turned back toward west.
An erratic motion between westward and west-southwestward is likely
today.

During the past hour, a station operated by Weatherflow at Federal
Point, North Carolina, reported a sustained wind of 56 mph (90 km/h)
and a gust to 72 mph (116 km/h), a sustained wind of 53 mph (85
km/h) and a gust to 72 mph (116 km/h) was observed at Mercer Pier in
Wrightsville Beach, and a sustained wind of 51 mph (82 km/h) and a
gust to 75 mph (121 km/h) was measured at the Wilmington offshore
buoy. In addition, an Amateur Radio operator in Oak Island near
Cape Fear, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 68
mph (109 km/h) and a gust to 87 mph (140 km/h).

Some Hurricane Florence heavy rainfall reports received thus far --

18.53 inches Oriental, NC
14.07 inches Surf City, NC
13.81 inches WFO Morehead City, NC
13.07 inches Jacksonville, NC

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...34.0N 78.2W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM ENE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Gaoth Laidir · 14-09-2018 5:43pm

star gazer wrote: »

Florence is moving slowly along the coast, just inland.

It's a good question. They could add something like large, medium and small storm (wind field) and have a set size for each (and also add the total kinetic energy estimate?). Or an estimate of total land rainfall from it? The wind speed is too important to be left out but adding something onto the wind scale could be useful with good education messages about meaning. Fortunately with Florence much of the preparation was done in anticipation of a higher category storm that made most sit up and respect warnings. The late messages of downgrading Categories may have led a few to complacency but hopefully not too many who weren't going to take the risk anyway. The eyewall was hard to anticipate in the days before landfall, worth studying for future reference. The forecasting

It's important to acknowledge the people who forecast and research the science to better understand what is going on currently and what will happen. Mostly it's a great convenience to know what weather is forecast but it saves lives and livelihoods too.

I think the current Saffir Simpson scales are good enough. The lower scales 1 and 2 are narrow enough to give a good indication of windspeed. Major scales 3-5 do get broader but at that stage it's getting serious enough that people need to get out and that's it. Destructive potential v windspeed is not a linear scale, but it really doesn't matter. For Cat 3 and above get out and stay out.

The NHC had a major bust with their intensity forecasts of Florence over the past week, but particularly the past 3 days. For some reason they were going a bit tabloid with their figures and language. Yes, it's the peak of the season, but the data were always stacked against the major landfall they continuously predicted. At less than 24 hours out they were 40 knots out with their peak intensity for yesterday (135 kts versus actual 95 kts). The highest Florence got to was 120 kts, and even at that this figure was very questionable the past few days. They had been forecasting 135 kts and 140 kts for days, but it was never going to happen over ocean heat content too low that far north and in such a swathe of dry air over the whole ocean. This is the 2nd year I've noticed this with US-landfalling hurricanes. Strange.

star gazer · 14-09-2018 7:16pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I think the current Saffir Simpson scales are good enough. The lower scales 1 and 2 are narrow enough to give a good indication of windspeed. Major scales 3-5 do get broader but at that stage it's getting serious enough that people need to get out and that's it. Destructive potential v windspeed is not a linear scale, but it really doesn't matter. For Cat 3 and above get out and stay out.

The NHC had a major bust with their intensity forecasts of Florence over the past week, but particularly the past 3 days. For some reason they were going a bit tabloid with their figures and language. Yes, it's the peak of the season, but the data were always stacked against the major landfall they continuously predicted. At less than 24 hours out they were 40 knots out with their peak intensity for yesterday (135 kts versus actual 95 kts). The highest Florence got to was 120 kts, and even at that this figure was very questionable the past few days. They had been forecasting 135 kts and 140 kts for days, but it was never going to happen over ocean heat content too low that far north and in such a swathe of dry air over the whole ocean. This is the 2nd year I've noticed this with US-landfalling hurricanes. Strange.

Interestingly the NHC and others got the intensity wrong the other way around out in the Atlantic as expected dry air and cooler ocean surface temps didn't stop it going to Category 4 the first time. The point i'm thinking of is when a Hurricane is "only" Cat 1 or 2 but has likely very large impacts expected and how does it get translated to people that while the winds may not be catastrophic some of the storm surge and rainfall accumulations could be? I don't think the Saffir Simpson Hurricane wind scale should be changed just add to it, like a Category 2 Hurricane with large impacts but help people understand the danger.

star gazer · 14-09-2018 7:27pm

Two fatalities reported on CNN as a tree fell into a house. Dozens trapped by storm surge and flood waters. It's a seriously destructive Hurricane.

abc news on Florence
https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1040647532366508035

There's a wave by the window.
https://twitter.com/DavidWMTW/status/1040546042364743680

Gaoth Laidir · 14-09-2018 7:37pm

star gazer wrote: »

Interestingly the NHC and others got the intensity wrong the other way around out in the Atlantic as expected dry air and cooler ocean surface temps didn't stop it going to Category 4 the first time. The point i'm thinking of is when a Hurricane is "only" Cat 1 or 2 but has likely very large impacts expected and how does it get translated to people that while the winds may not be catastrophic some of the storm surge and rainfall accumulations could be? I don't think the Saffir Simpson Hurricane wind scale should be changed just add to it, like a Category 2 Hurricane with large impacts but help people understand the danger.

To be fair the NHC do give great detail on local effects and warnings in the Public and Forecast Advisories and the Discussions, so personally I wouldn't have a problem there. It's just that sometimes their interpretations seem to tilt in favour of maintaining high intensities. They tend to go above the aircraft recon data for US-landfalling systems, quoting possible undersampling of max winds, yet with other storms they take the recon values at face value (e.g. Isaac yesterday). Not only recon figures, either.

Anyway, at least they're not in Ireland, facing this monster...:rolleyes:

spookwoman · 14-09-2018 7:48pm

https://twitter.com/gourdnibler/status/1040678572262916096

Graces7 · 15-09-2018 7:05am

reading the RTE report on Florence.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/0915/993909-hurricane-florence/

sdanseo · 15-09-2018 11:04am

Graces7 wrote: »

reading the RTE report on Florence.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/0915/993909-hurricane-florence/

RTÉ top-notch reporting as usual.

Florence had been a Category 3 hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale with 1930km/h winds as of Thursday, but dropped to a Category 1 hurricane before coming ashore.

Akrasia · 15-09-2018 12:06pm

Pretty heavy rainfall totals in some areas already with the potential for 10-20 inches more before the event is over

MJohnston · 15-09-2018 12:51pm

For context, the average annual rainfall for Dublin is 28.8 inches.

Rikand · 15-09-2018 1:36pm

MJohnston wrote: »

For context, the average annual rainfall for Dublin is 28.8 inches.

Ah sure the wesht gets 28 inches every day and doesnt even make a dent

splinter65 · 15-09-2018 1:42pm

Rikand wrote: »

Ah sure the wesht gets 28 inches every day and doesnt even make a dent

Even in the heatwave shure it rained non stop....

Graces7 · 15-09-2018 1:53pm

sdanseo wrote: »

RTÉ top-notch reporting as usual.

You must be a professional proofreader!

SleetAndSnow · 15-09-2018 2:04pm

sdanseo wrote: »

RTÉ top-notch reporting as usual.

God somebody must have changed the scales of what makes a hurricane! if that is CAT 3 id dread to see CAT 5!

sryanbruen · 15-09-2018 2:57pm

https://twitter.com/StephanieAbrams/status/1040942767877312518

Akrasia · 15-09-2018 2:58pm

A scientific analysis of hurricane Florence has already been released with preliminary results attributing 50% of the rainfall to climate change. And saying that Florence remained a higher category storm for longer and grew 80 kilometers larger than it would have been if the global warming signal was removed

https://cpb-us-e1.wpmucdn.com/you.stonybrook.edu/dist/4/945/files/2018/09/climate_change_Florence_0911201800Z_final-262u19i.pdf

The study is based on the CAM model

MJohnston · 15-09-2018 4:10pm

Rikand wrote: »

Ah sure the wesht gets 28 inches every day and doesnt even make a dent

I don't want to hear about Wesht's sex life, whoever they are

sdanseo · 15-09-2018 5:33pm

We might not have seen the last of Florence yet from an Irish perspective. NHC now expecting her to reintensify to a Tropical Storm east of Newfoundland and hurtle in our direction towards next weekend.

At that stage, if it verified, it will have been a named system for more than 3 weeks.

igCorcaigh · 15-09-2018 5:49pm

MJohnston wrote: »

I don't want to hear about Wesht's sex life, whoever they are

LOL!

Gaoth Laidir · 15-09-2018 6:20pm

Akrasia wrote: »

A scientific analysis of hurricane Florence has already been released with preliminary results attributing 50% of the rainfall to climate change. And saying that Florence remained a higher category storm for longer and grew 80 kilometers larger than it would have been if the global warming signal was removed

https://cpb-us-e1.wpmucdn.com/you.stonybrook.edu/dist/4/945/files/2018/09/climate_change_Florence_0911201800Z_final-262u19i.pdf

The study is based on the CAM model

So they compared one fully-coupled model to the uncoupled GFS, which has been generating comical forecasts on Florence all week. It's not surprising to find such differences between these two models as the GFS has been that different to all the other models too! Is this paper real science or a wind-up?

jimmynokia · 15-09-2018 6:24pm

Media already telling us its going to kill us all.. Usual BS.

Akrasia · 15-09-2018 6:43pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

So they compared one fully-coupled model to the uncoupled GFS, which has been generating comical forecasts on Florence all week. It's not surprising to find such differences between these two models as the GFS has been that different to all the other models too! Is this paper real science or a wind-up?

Real science.

star gazer · 15-09-2018 7:30pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

To be fair the NHC do give great detail on local effects and warnings in the Public and Forecast Advisories and the Discussions, so personally I wouldn't have a problem there. It's just that sometimes their interpretations seem to tilt in favour of maintaining high intensities. They tend to go above the aircraft recon data for US-landfalling systems, quoting possible undersampling of max winds, yet with other storms they take the recon values at face value (e.g. Isaac yesterday). Not only recon figures, either.
<snip>

I think the current Saffir Simpson scales are good enough. The lower scales 1 and 2 are narrow enough to give a good indication of windspeed. Major scales 3-5 do get broader but at that stage it's getting serious enough that people need to get out and that's it. Destructive potential v windspeed is not a linear scale, but it really doesn't matter. For Cat 3 and above get out and stay out.

This is the crux of it, if you have it at a lower Category 1 or 2, it's more difficult to have people "get out and stay out" which is where Florence ended up coming into landfall and yet the flooding is so bad as to warrant the evacuations. That then could be helped by distilling what the NHC has in advisories (and everyone else) into some measure of the windfield, rain and surge potential. So you have a wind scale plus.

irishrover99 · 15-09-2018 7:38pm

sdanseo wrote: »

We might not have seen the last of Florence yet from an Irish perspective. NHC now expecting her to reintensify to a Tropical Storm east of Newfoundland and hurtle in our direction towards next weekend.

At that stage, if it verified, it will have been a named system for more than 3 weeks.

If things keeps going at this rate, we’ll have a new influx of tourists.

Storm chasers ðŸ˜€.

star gazer · 15-09-2018 7:56pm

It's heading slowly West, then North West through South Carolina for the next day or so but a lot of the heavy rains are still being pulled in over North Carolina.
600mm for Newport, North Carolina so far. Around the 600mm is the storm rainfall total record for the State.

Rainfall totals
https://twitter.com/breakingweather/status/1040991145994727424
https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1040998275892031488

Rainband
https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1041005078440751104

There goes the neighbourhood
https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1041006197200052226

Artane2002 · 15-09-2018 8:01pm

sdanseo wrote: »

We might not have seen the last of Florence yet from an Irish perspective. NHC now expecting her to reintensify to a Tropical Storm east of Newfoundland and hurtle in our direction towards next weekend.

At that stage, if it verified, it will have been a named system for more than 3 weeks.

Or ex-Florence but with tropical storm force winds

MJohnston · 15-09-2018 8:19pm

sdanseo wrote: »

We might not have seen the last of Florence yet from an Irish perspective. NHC now expecting her to reintensify to a Tropical Storm east of Newfoundland and hurtle in our direction towards next weekend.

At that stage, if it verified, it will have been a named system for more than 3 weeks.

I don't know if it's recent or not, but there's a Storm Track section on Meteologix now, based on the ECM, and it shows a bit further out on the tracks than NOAA:

https://meteologix.com/ie/cyclone-tracks/euro/grid-europe-africa/2018091512-240-florence.html

Doesn't look like it'll bother us much:

Gaoth Laidir · 16-09-2018 8:53am

The last advisory on Florence - now a Tropical Depression - has just been issued, It's picking up forward speed a bit.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/160848.shtml

jimmynokia · 16-09-2018 2:50pm

https://www.met.ie/met-eireann-briefing-regarding-ex-tropical-storm-helene-at-midday-on-sunday-16th-september

REBELSAFC · 17-09-2018 8:45am

How apt that Emerald Isle was one of the wettest areas in North Carolina!!:D:D

https://twitter.com/breakingweather/status/1040991145994727424

sryanbruen · 17-09-2018 3:22pm

https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/1041708543198539776

Gaoth Laidir · 17-09-2018 8:28pm

Florence Storm Totals up to today

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html

...Selected preliminary Storm Total Rainfall in inches from 200 PM
EDT Thu Sep 13 through 1000 AM EDT Mon Sep 17...

...NORTH CAROLINA...
ELIZABETHTOWN 6.2 NW 35.93 LISTED AS SUSPECT
SWANSBORO 1.4 N 33.89
GURGANUS .5 N 30.38
HOFMANN FOREST RAWS 29.62
HAMPSTEAD 4.1 WNW 29.52
SUNNY POINT RAWS 27.44
NATURE CONSERVANCY RAWS 27.40
OAK ISLAND .9 ENE 26.98
WILMINGTON 7.3 NE 26.58
WHITEVILLE 6.1 NW 25.91
NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NWS WFO 25.20
MT. OLIVE 0.4 NW 25.04
NEWPORT .2 SW 23.86
TURNBULL CREEK RAWS 23.67
EMERALD ISLE 0.2 ENE 23.49
MAYSVILLE 3.4 SSW 23.07
WILMINGTON INTL AP (KILM) 23.02
LUMBERTON 2.3 NE 22.76
YAUPON BEACH 22.07
SUPPLY 4 NNW 21.92
CEDAR POINT 0.9 WSW 21.73
CROATAN RAWS 21.70
BOLIVIA 7.8 SW 21.59
MOREHEAD CITY .6 NW 21.20
BACK ISLAND RAWS 20.87
SANDY RUN RAWS 19.92
FAYETTEVILLE (KFAY) 15.27
PIEDMONT TRIAD INTL AP (KGSO) 6.99
RALEIGH-DURHAM INTL AP (KRDU) 6.98
CHARLOTTE/DOUGLAS INTL AP (KCLT) 6.13

...SOUTH CAROLINA...
LORIS 2.9 WSW 23.63
LORIS 1.4 ENE 23.18
CHERAW WATER PLANT 22.58
CAROLINA SAND HILLS RAWS (6E JEFFS 21.18
CHESTERFIELD (MAIN ST) 19.94
MARION 3 E RAWS 19.56
DILLON 3.8 NW 18.38
PAWLEYS ISLAND 2.6 N 15.75
BENNETTSVILLE 1.2 SE 15.68
MYRTLE BEACH 8.4 NNW 15.41
HORRY RAWS 13.52
MCBEE (USGS) 12.77
GRAND STRAND AP (KCRE) 11.47
HARTSVILLE 1.7 NW 11.39
PEE DEE RIVER 11.29
PAGELAND 3 SE 10.23
CONWAY HADS 10.10
FLORENCE AP (KFLO) 7.62
ROCK HILL 2 W 7.48

...VIRGINIA...
MEADOWS OF DAN 4.5 SW 10.56
WILLIS 2.7 SE 9.86
COPPER HILL 6.2 S 9.54
CALLAWAY 4 WSW 8.84
STUART 8.65
CHECK 8.33
FERRUM 6.60
HORSE PASTURE 2 E 6.05
WOOLWINE 5.86
LAUREL FORK 5.65
ROCKY MOUNT 4.3 NNW 5.65
BENT MOUNTAIN 1 NNE 5.64
SHAWSVILLE 4 E 5.60
GALAX 5.25
POAGES MILL 2 W 5.24
DANVILLE REGL AP 5.00

...Selected preliminary Peak Wind gusts in miles per hour earlier
in the event...

...GEORGIA...
TYBEE ISLAND 1SSW 42
FORT PULASKI 41
AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD 39
SAVANNAH AIRPORT 37
STATESBORO 36

...NORTH CAROLINA...
BUOY 30 SE NEW RIVER INLET 112
FORT MACON 105
WILMINGTON INT'L ARPT (KILM) 105
CAPE LOOKOUT 97
CEDAR ISLAND 1 N 89
CHERRY POINT ASOS 87
JACKSONVILLE ASOS 86
FRISCO WOODS 80
OCRACOKE 80
HARKERS ISLAND 77
DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY 76
NORTH RIVER 75
AVON 74
BUXTON 73
SNEADS FERRY 1 SSE 72
NEW RIVER MCAS 70
LUMBERTON MUNI 69
FAYETTEVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT 66
FORT BRAGG/SIMMO 66
ROMINGER 2 SSW 61
SILVERSTONE 1 SE 58
RALEIGH-DURHAM INTL AIRPORT 47
CHARLOTTE/DOUGLAS AIRPORT 34

...SOUTH CAROLINA...
CHARLESTON 4 ESE 56
FT. SUMTER RANGE FRONT LIGHT 55
EDISTO BUOY 41004 54
SHAW AFB 54
CHARLESTON INTL AIRPORT 53
CAPERS NEARSHORE BUOY 41029 51
FLORENCE REGIONAL AIRPORT 50
MYRTLE BEACH AFB 48
DEWEES ISLAND 5 ESE 47
MCENTIRE ANG 47
PINOPOLIS 47
SUMTER MUNICIPAL AIRPORT 47
CAMDEN-WOODWARD FIELD 45
SULLIVANS ISLAND 1 ENE 45
WILD DUNES 2 WSW 45
FOLLY BEACH 44
BATTERY POINT 1 NNW 43
BEAUFORT 43
ORANGEBURG MUNICIPAL AIRPORT 40

...VIRGINIA...
MOUNTAIN LAKE 48
NORFOLK NAVAL AIR STATION 38
PENHOOK 3 NE 38
ROANOKE REGL AP 38
BURKES GARDEN 37
LANGLEY AFB 37
NORFOLK AIRPORT 37
VIRGINIA BEACH OCEANA 37
MEADOWS OF DAN 1 W 35
WALLOPS ISLAND 35
DANVILLE REGL AP 33
NEWPORT NEWS AIRPORT 33

sdanseo · 17-09-2018 8:39pm

Florence predicted to strengthen again in a couple of days:
(30W is approx. mid-Atlantic)

NOAA wrote:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/tropical_advisories.php?storm=FLORENCE
72H 20/1200Z 41.0N 53.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/1200Z 40.7N 43.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/1200Z 42.3N 34.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Villain · 17-09-2018 9:00pm

This is why looking at wind speeds only is never a good idea!

https://twitter.com/carlowweather/status/1041791010353934337?s=21

igCorcaigh · 19-09-2018 8:45pm

Sep 19, 2018

Tropical Rainstorm Florence is moving east over the open waters of the northwestern Atlantic and is now positioned southeast of Nova Scotia. The storm will remain classified as a non-tropical storm system as it races eastward at 25-30 mph. The storm system will merge with a southward-moving cold front and the whole system will move eastward across the North Atlantic for the next few days. Eventually, the storm will intensify and become a very powerful wind and rainstorm as it approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom. What once was a powerful hurricane will bring strong, perhaps damaging winds and heavy rainfall to parts of Ireland and Northern Ireland and mostly the northern United Kingdom this weekend, mostly during Sunday.

https://m.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic

Florence

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