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August 2018 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 24-07-2018 2:49am
    #1
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭


    1. Predict the IMT, the average temperature at five locations (Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park, Shannon). The 1981-2010 normal value is 15.1.

    2. Predict the MAX at any location as reported in the Monthly Summary.

    3. Predict the MIN at any location as reported in the Monthly Summary.

    4. Predict the PRC, the average for eleven locations, as % of normal.

    5. Predict the SUN, the average for six locations, as % of normal.

    6. BONUS: What will be the highest 24h rainfall in mm, and location? Points will be 7 and 3, superbomus available.

    Enter by 0300h Wed 1st of August with the usual late penalties.

    As I will be off-line until after that deadline, my forecast for the above is

    MTC _____ 16.1 _ 29.0 _ 2.5 _ 080 _ 120 __ 45.0 Ballyhaise

    and NormaL 15.1 _ 26.5 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 50.0 (pts based on climate)


«1

Comments

  • #2
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    sryanbruen _____ 16.4 _ 29.2 _ 3.5 _ 110 _ 110 __ 35.0 Oak Park

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #3
    Bsal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,775 ✭✭✭Bsal


    Bsal _____ 16.2 _ 30.1 _ 3.8 _ 85 _ 115 __ 42.0 Mount Dillon


  • #4
    adam240610
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 826 ✭✭✭adam240610


    Adam240610 _____ 16.2 _ 29.1 _ 1.8 _ 90 _ 110 _ 40.5 Oak Park


  • #5
    200motels
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,604 ✭✭✭200motels


    200motels ___________ 16.2 _ 31 _ 3.8 _ 070 _ 122__ 41.0 Ballyhaise


  • #6
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    pauldry___________ 16.0 _ 30 _ 2.9_ 90 _ 113__ 65.0 Finner


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  • #7
    Joe Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,783 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Joe Public _____ 15.9 _ 27.9 _ 2.9 _ 76 _ 129 __ 35.3 Johnstown Castle


  • #8
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,151 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    DOCARCH _____ 15.6 _ 29.3 _ 3.4 _ 085 _ 125 __ 23.6 Valentia


  • #9
    sunflower3
    Registered Users Posts: 193 ✭✭sunflower3


    Sunflower3 _____ 16.0 _ 28.1 _ 2.9 _ 080 _ 115 __ 21.0 Valentia


  • #10
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    sryanbruen _____ 16.4 _ 29.2 _ 3.5 _ 110 _ 110 __ 35.0 Oak Park

    Edit: sryanbruen _____ 15.7 _ 26.2 _ 2.5 _ 140 _ 70 __ 50.0 Oak Park

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #11
    Rikand
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,421 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    Rikand ____ 16.0 ___ 29.0 ___ 3.0 ___ 90 ___ 120 ___ 35.0 Mount Dillon


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  • #12
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    pauldry wrote: »
    pauldry___________ 15.5 _ 26.1_ 2.9_ 108_ 112__ 55.0 Finner

    not as optimistic now


  • #13
    adam240610
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 826 ✭✭✭adam240610


    adam240610 wrote: »
    Adam240610 _____ 16.2 _ 29.1 _ 1.8 _ 90 _ 110 _ 40.5 Oak Park
    Adam240610 _____ 16.2 _ 27.4 _ 1.8 _ 90 _ 110 _ 40.5 Oak Park
    Revised max temp to 27.4, don't see it reaching above 28 let alone 29.


  • #14
    waterways
    Registered Users Posts: 377 ✭✭waterways


    waterways _____ 16.3_26.6_ 3.0_077_117 __ 36.0 Cork


  • #15
    John mac
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,130 ✭✭✭John mac


    john mac _____ 15.8 _ 27.2 _ 2.5 _ 105 _ 107 __ 33.0 newport


  • #16
    kindredspirit
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 345 ✭✭kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 16.1 ____ 28.0 ___ 4.0 ___ 82 ___ 120 ___ 38. Cork.

    https://coolwatergarden.com/



  • #17
    Jpmarn
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,484 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Jpmarn _______16.6_30.6_ 2.4_087_125 __ 35.0 Ballyhaise


  • #18
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,227 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    JCXBXC__16.1_26.1_2.3_090_100_30.1mm Valentia.


  • #19
    mickger844posts
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    mickger844posts _____ 16.1 _ 28.0 _ 4.5 _ 090 _ 110 __ 35.0 Johnstown Castle


  • #20
    Tae laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 731 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Tae laidir ___ 15.8 _ 26.8 _ 2.8 _ 105 _ 95 __ 19.0 Belmullet


  • #21
    rameire
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,183 ✭✭✭rameire


    Rameire ___ 16.0_ 27.5 _ 2.9 _ 095 _ 85 __ 44.0 Claremorris

    🌞 3.8kwp, 🌞 Split 2.28S, 1.52E. 🌞 Clonee, Dub.🌞



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  • #22
    mrskinner
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 394 ✭✭mrskinner


    Skinner_____15.6_____25.9______4_______90______95______40 Valentia


  • #23
    dacogawa
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,842 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    Dacogawa ___________ 16.2 _ 28.4 _ 3.4 _ 92 _ 112 _ 41.0 Belmullet


  • #24
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Agh forgot...



    BLIZZARD7 _____ 16.4 _ 29.5 _ 3.0_ 087 _ 120 __ 40.0 Oak Park


  • #25
    dasa29
    Registered Users Posts: 572 ✭✭✭dasa29


    Agh forgot too

    Dasa29 _____ 15.8 _ 28.5 _ 4.0 _ 075 _ 120 __ 42.0 Valentia


  • #26
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for August 2018

    FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max 24h rain, loc'n

    Jpmarn ______________16.6 _ 30.6 _ 2.4 _ 087 _ 125 __ 35.0 _ Ballyhaise
    BLIZZARD7 ___ (-2) ___ 16.4 _ 29.5 _ 3.0 _ 087 _ 120 __ 40.0 _ Oak Park
    waterways ___________ 16.3 _ 26.6 _ 3.0 _ 077 _ 117 __ 36.0 _ Cork
    200motels ___________ 16.2 _ 31.0 _ 3.8 _ 070 _ 122 __ 41.0 _ Ballyhaise
    Bsal ________________ 16.2 _ 30.1 _ 3.8 _ 085 _ 115 __ 42.0 _ Mount Dillon
    Dacogawa ___________ 16.2 _ 28.4 _ 3.4 _ 092 _ 112 __ 41.0 _ Belmullet
    Adam240610 _________ 16.2 _ 27.4 _ 1.8 _ 090 _ 110 __ 40.5 _ Oak Park
    M.T. Cranium _________ 16.1 _ 29.0 _ 2.5 _ 080 _ 120 __ 45.0 _ Ballyhaise
    Kindred Spirit _________16.1 _ 28.0 _ 4.0 _ 082 _ 120 __ 38.0 _ Cork
    mickger844posts ______ 16.1 _ 28.0 _ 4.5 _ 090 _ 110 __ 35.0 _ Johnstown Castle
    JCXBXC _____________ 16.1 _ 26.1 _ 2.3 _ 090 _ 100 __ 30.1 _ Valentia

    Con Sensus __________ 16.1 _ 28.0 _ 3.0 _ 089 _ 115 __ 40.0 _

    Rikand ______________ 16.0 _ 29.0 _ 3.0 _ 090 _ 120 __ 35.0 _ Mount Dillon
    Sunflower3 ___________16.0 _ 28.1 _ 2.9 _ 080 _ 115 __ 21.0 _ Valentia
    Rameire _____________ 16.0 _ 27.5 _ 2.9 _ 095 _ 085 __ 44.0 _ Claremorris
    Joe Public ____________15.9 _ 27.9 _ 2.9 _ 076 _ 129 __ 35.3 _ Johnstown Castle
    Dasa29 _____ (-2) ____ 15.8 _ 28.5 _ 4.0 _ 075 _ 120 __ 42.0 _ Valentia
    john mac ____________ 15.8 _ 27.2 _ 2.5 _ 105 _ 107 __ 33.0 _ Newport
    Tae laidir ____________ 15.8 _ 26.8 _ 2.8 _ 105 _ 095 __ 19.0 _ Belmullet
    sryanbruen ___________15.7 _ 26.2 _ 2.5 _ 140 _ 070 __ 50.0 _ Oak Park
    DOCARCH ____________15.6 _ 29.3 _ 3.4 _ 085 _ 125 __ 23.6 _ Valentia
    MrSkinner ___________ 15.6 _ 25.9 _ 4.0 _ 090 _ 095 __ 40.0 _ Valentia
    pauldry ______________15.5 _ 26.1 _ 2.9 _ 108 _ 112 __ 55.0 _ Finner


    NormaL______________ 15.1 _ 26.5 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 50.0 (pts based on climate)

    _____________________________________________________

    as of 0600h 3rd, 22 forecasts, sdanseo and Lumi were yet to post, for now Con sensus (median) is mean of 11th and 12th ranked in each category.

    Locations chosen for maximum 24h rainfall:

    Valentia 5 (Con scores three if correct for max location)
    Oak Park 3, Ballyhaise 3, Belmullet 2, Cork 2, Mountdillon 2, JC 2 (Con scores two if any of them is max)
    1 for Newport, Finner, Belmullet, Claremorris
    (Con scores one point if correct)

    any other location, Con scores zero, your score is based on rank of your choice, three if you chose max location, two if you chose 2-3 ranked, and one if you choose 4-6 ranked.

    As I will now be off-line for most of August, it would be helpful if forecasters posted some data based on monthly data or ag report or for 24h max rain, yesterday's weather sections of the met.ie website. Thanks and good luck.


  • #27
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Phoenix Park with a max. of 26.2c on August 2nd. Can it stay that way please :D?

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #28
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Just had a bit of internet time, IMT to 9th is 16.1, PRC appears to be fairly low (55% a rough estimate) and SUN about 85% (has been near normal 3rd to 9th per Ag Report, but quite low on first two days, so blend is 85%). Hoping you will post any apparent MAX or MIN candidates and heavy rainfalls if any occur.


  • #29
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    4.5c at Moore Park on the 9th.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #30
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    2.6c at Mullingar

    That seems very low for August

    Is it?


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  • #31
    adam240610
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 826 ✭✭✭adam240610


    pauldry wrote: »
    2.6c at Mullingar

    That seems very low for August

    Is it?
    I wouldn't be surprised seeing 0c by the end of the month to be honest.


  • #32
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    1.2c in mt dillon

    think -2.7c is actually the coldest August temperature on record


  • #33
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    pauldry wrote: »
    2.6c at Mullingar

    That seems very low for August

    Is it?

    Mullingar's lowest August temps since 2000 (also some historical hot Summers):

    Year|Minimum temperature
    2017|4.3
    2016|5.8
    2015|4.0
    2014|3.7
    2013|6.6
    2012|6.2
    2011|3.7
    2010|3.9
    2009|6.3
    2008|7.1
    2007|7.8
    2006|4.5
    2005|6.3
    2004|4.3
    2003|5.5
    2002|7.0
    2001|4.2
    2000|4.7
    1995|6.5
    1989|3.0
    1983|4.7
    1976|4.3
    1975|2.6


    Extremely unusual to be that low and it's near early August too, closest comparison in the above was 1975 which had the exact same minimum. Looking at Mullingar's monthly record low minimum temperatures, the record low for August was 2.1c on 31st August 1986. So quite an unusually cold temperature for the station for August.

    And yes -2.7c is the record low for August in Ireland which occurred on 30th August 1964 at Rathdrum, Co. Wicklow.

    Coldest August nights since 2014 I believe.

    Data comes from Met Éireann.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #34
    dacogawa
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,842 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    Next years bonus question for August could be along the lines of "How much cloud cover for the Perseid meteor shower" or something along those lines.

    That's one of the hardest things to get any sort of grasp on, even the high resolution charts are not in agreement a few hours out...


  • #35
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Back to some internet time as we visit family on the last leg of our trip ... so getting ready for the possible rainfall totals from Ernesto (looks to be somewhat compromised by midnight being in the rainfall timing period), highest value I found in a very brief search of promising days was

    22.9 mm Markree on 1st

    (close second there was Knock)

    anyone aware of anything higher than that on a later date?

    will be checking more carefully before month is over in any case.


  • #36
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Saw a few 20mm readings MT but August 1st was wettest day. And 22mm in Markree is the highest I see too

    Newport had a lot yesterday so see what that is.


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  • #37
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Yup 37mm according to provisional data

    Beat that Ernesto


  • #38
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thanks, that 37.0 at Newport goes into first place for now, with those other two as second and third. Ernesto has a chance maybe for Finner or Malin Head if all the rain falls before midnight.

    IMT now on 15.7. I will update the PRC and SUN tomorrow using the ag report to blend with the values I gave for the 11th (12-18 in that report). But from today's ag report and obs, would estimate that PRC is now around 80% and SUN as low as 70%. The warmth is fading slower than the drought or sunshine apparently in the summer of 2018. However, it remains dry in a few parts of the south.


  • #39
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    sryanbruen may be putting a big hurt on us with his 70% sun forecast, only rameire at 85% went much below average and tae laidir with MrSkinner at 95% the only other supporters of cloudiness.

    A reminder -- anyone who gets a natural 9 or 10 in a 10-point category needing minimum progression scoring assistance reduces the boost by half, so let's say sryanbruen scores 9 or 10, then the next score should be 8 or 9 but would be cut to whatever half that boost was, perhaps not a big cut there for 85% but the cuts at 95% look like being 2 points in that scenario and most of the others around that also. (4 to 8 would reduce to 6, for example, for 100% vs actual of 70%). We rarely see this rule applied, although I can recall one case where min progression was needed even though most extreme forecast was more extreme than tha actual, just wasn't close enough to score enough points.

    Not as sure that we'll need any scoring assistance on PRC as it would be a long way to go to the higher end of those forecasts (again sryanbruen at 140%).


  • #40
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    IMT up to 15.9 after a warm 18th, new MAX of 26.6 at Oak Park (AFAIK).

    PRC after 18 days is about 72% of normal. No 24h (calendar day at least) rainfall amounts quite matched the current top three with Claremorris at 20.2 mm tops for 18th and Ernesto.

    SUN is now at around 73% of normal.

    We have one more day of travelling left to complete our journey and should be back to more regular contest duties by Tuesday.


  • #41
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    IMT on 16.0 after 23 days.

    Checked daily data and confirmed this is the current list of heaviest 24h rainfalls.

    RANK __ AMOUNT __ LOCATION ___ DATE __ rank of station for contest

    _ 1 _____ 37.0 _____ Newport ___ 17th _____ 1

    _ 2 _____ 22.9 _____ Markree ____ 1st _____ 2

    _ 3 _____ 21.6 _____ Belmullet ___ 17th ____ 3

    _ 4 _____ 21.3 _____ Knock _______ 1st ____ 4

    _ 5 _____ 19.8 _____ Newport _____ 1st

    _ 6 _____ 19.5 _____ Malin Head ___18th ____ 5

    _ 7 _____ 19.1 _____ Finner Camp _ 17th ____ 6

    _t 8 ____ 18.6 _____ Belmullet ___ 21st

    _t 8 ____ 18.6 _____ Mountdillon __ 18th ____ 7 (t)

    _t 8 ____ 18.6 _____ Mace Head ___ 18th____ 7 (t)

    _11_____ 18.3 _____ Claremorris __ 1st _____ 9

    _12_____ 18.2 _____ Mountdillon __ 1st _____

    _t13____ 18.0 _____ Valentia _____ 1st _____ 10

    _t13____ 18.0 _____ Knock ______ 18th ____


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  • #42
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,151 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    2c min. in Moorepark this morning.


  • #43
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    That low turned out to be 2.2 C and did not budge the previous extreme MIN we noted, 1.2 C.

    Probably one more chance to push the MIN down around Thursday. MAX probably set now, 26.6 as far as we know.

    Is the third going to be a bank holiday there, I am really relying on the MS this month and it would not appear until 5th if so.

    The IMT is now on 15.8 C. Expect a finish near 15.5 C.

    PRC appears to be close to 95 to 100% with the north generally 120% and the south generally closer to 50%. Yesterday moved it up at least 10%. I don't expect it to change much after this week with small amounts to be added, would expect an outcome near 90%.

    SUN likely around 75% of normal. This week may help it somewhat.



    Yesterday's rainfalls entered into play in the monthly contest, this is the revised list:


    RANK __ AMOUNT __ LOCATION ___ DATE __ rank of station for contest

    _ 1 _____ 37.0 _____ Newport ___ 17th _____1

    _ 2 _____ 22.9 _____ Markree ____ 1st _____ 2

    _ 3 _____ 22.3 _____ Moore Park _ 26th ____ 3

    _ 4 _____ 21.6 _____ Belmullet ___ 17th ____ 4

    _ 5 _____ 21.3 _____ Knock _______ 1st ____ 5

    _ 6 _____ 19.8 _____ Newport _____ 1st

    _ 7 _____ 19.7 _____ Oak Park ____ 26th ____ 6

    _ 8 _____ 19.5 _____ Malin Head ___18th ____ 7

    _ 9 _____ 19.4 _____ Johnstown C _ 26th ____ 8

    _10 _____ 19.1 _____ Finner Camp _ 17th ____ 9

    _t11 ____ 18.6 _____ Belmullet ___ 21st

    _t11 ____ 18.6 _____ Mountdillon __ 18th ____10 (t)

    _t11 ____ 18.6 _____ Mace Head ___ 18th____10 (t)

    _t11 ____ 18.6 _____ Valentia _____ 26th____10 (t)

    _t14 ____ 18.4 _____ Malin Head ___ 26th ___

    _t14 ____ 18.4 _____ Knock ______ 26th ___

    _14_____ 18.3 _____ Claremorris __ 1st _____ 13

    _15_____ 18.2 _____ Mountdillon __ 1st _____

    _t16____ 18.0 _____ Valentia _____ 1st _____

    _t16____ 18.0 _____ Knock ______ 18th ____


  • #44
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Provisional scoring for August 2018

    It could be a few days into September before everything is verified. This is the approximate state of affairs using projections from the values calculated yesterday. Note if you read that yesterday, I changed the numbers for PRC after doing a more careful check of the data, so far if it didn't rain again to end of the month, we have a guaranteed 82% while 26 days should reach just about that value if they have normal amounts. So with a less rainy pattern ahead, I will now go with 90%.

    FORECASTER _________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__Max 24h rain, loc'n ___ TOTALS

    Estimated values ______15.5_26.6_1.2_090_080__ 37.0 _ Newport

    NormaL______________ 21 _ 19 _ 20*_ 12 _ 06 __ 03 _ 02 _____ 83

    JCXBXC _____________ 19 _ 15 _ 18*_ 15 _ 06 __ 05 _ 01 _____ 79
    john mac ____________ 22 _ 14 _ 16*_ 10 _ 05 __ 06 _ 03 +1 ___77
    Adam240610 _________18 _ 12 _ 19*_ 15 _ 04 __ 06 _ 02 _____ 76
    Tae laidir ____________ 22 _ 18 _ 13*_ 10 _ 07 __ 01 _ 02 _____ 73
    MrSkinner ___________ 24 _ 13 _ 04*_ 15 _ 07 __ 06 _ 01 _____ 70
    Rameire _____________20 _ 11 _ 12*_ 13 _ 09 __ 05 _ 00 _____ 70
    sryanbruen __________ 23 _ 16 _ 16*_ 00 _ 08 __ 03 _ 02 _____ 68
    waterways ___________17 _ 20 _ 10*_ 11 _ 03 __ 07 _ 00 _____ 68
    pauldry _____________ 25 _ 15 _ 12*_ 09 _ 04 __ 01 _ 01 _____ 67

    Con Sensus __________ 19 _ 04 _ 10*_ 15 _ 03 __ 06 _ 02 _____ 59

    Joe Public ____________21 _ 07 _ 12*_ 10 _ 00 __ 07 _ 01 _____ 58
    Rikand ______________ 20 _ 00 _ 10*_ 15 _ 02 __ 07 _ 01 _____ 55
    Sunflower3 ___________20 _ 05 _ 12*_ 12 _ 03 __ 02 _ 01 _____ 55
    Dacogawa ___________ 18 _ 02 _ 08*_ 14 _ 04 __ 06 _ 02 _____ 54
    mickger844posts ______19 _ 06 _ 01*_ 15 _ 04 __ 07 _ 01 _____ 53
    M.T. Cranium _________19 _ 00 _ 16*_ 12 _ 02 __ 04 _ 00 _____ 53
    Jpmarn ______________14 _ 00 _ 17*_ 14 _ 01 __ 07 _ 00 _____ 53
    Kindred Spirit _________19 _ 06 _ 04*_ 12 _ 02 __ 07 _ 00 _____ 50
    DOCARCH ____________24 _ 00 _ 08*_ 13 _ 01 __ 02 _ 01 _____ 49
    BLIZZARD7 ___ (-2) ___ 16 _ 00 _ 10*_ 14 _ 02 __ 06 _ 02 _50-2=48
    Bsal ________________ 18 _ 00 _ 06*_ 13 _ 03 __ 05 _ 01 _____ 46
    Dasa29 _____ (-2) _____22 _ 01 _ 04*_ 10 _ 02 __ 05 _ 01 _45-2=43
    200motels ___________ 18 _ 00 _ 06*_ 08 _ 02 __ 06 _ 00 _____ 40
    ______________________________________________________________

    About one third of the field scored zero for MAX. I decided against minimum progression when it appeared that quite a few forecasts were
    quite close to the actual value and it seemed unfair to boost some scores when there was no room to boost the higher ones.

    The situation for MIN was a bit different, all scores were in need of a boost so I applied the standard minimum progression there.

    Location points for max rainfall ... if this holds, only one guess for closest location (Newport) and no guesses for either Moore Park or Markree in 2nd and 3rd so shifted the two points to any of 4th to 6th Belmullet, Knock, Oak Park, and one point to any of the remaining top ten including ties, which then included Malin Head, Johnstown Castle, Finner, Mountdillon, Mace Head or Valentia.

    =======================================================================

    (actual forecasts)

    FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max 24h rain, loc'n

    Jpmarn ______________16.6 _ 30.6 _ 2.4 _ 087 _ 125 __ 35.0 _ Ballyhaise
    BLIZZARD7 ___ (-2) ___ 16.4 _ 29.5 _ 3.0 _ 087 _ 120 __ 40.0 _ Oak Park
    waterways ___________ 16.3 _ 26.6 _ 3.0 _ 077 _ 117 __ 36.0 _ Cork
    200motels ___________ 16.2 _ 31.0 _ 3.8 _ 070 _ 122 __ 41.0 _ Ballyhaise
    Bsal ________________ 16.2 _ 30.1 _ 3.8 _ 085 _ 115 __ 42.0 _ Mount Dillon
    Dacogawa ___________ 16.2 _ 28.4 _ 3.4 _ 092 _ 112 __ 41.0 _ Belmullet
    Adam240610 _________ 16.2 _ 27.4 _ 1.8 _ 090 _ 110 __ 40.5 _ Oak Park
    M.T. Cranium _________ 16.1 _ 29.0 _ 2.5 _ 080 _ 120 __ 45.0 _ Ballyhaise
    Kindred Spirit _________16.1 _ 28.0 _ 4.0 _ 082 _ 120 __ 38.0 _ Cork
    mickger844posts ______ 16.1 _ 28.0 _ 4.5 _ 090 _ 110 __ 35.0 _ Johnstown Castle
    JCXBXC _____________ 16.1 _ 26.1 _ 2.3 _ 090 _ 100 __ 30.1 _ Valentia

    Con Sensus __________ 16.1 _ 28.0 _ 3.0 _ 089 _ 115 __ 40.0 _

    Rikand ______________ 16.0 _ 29.0 _ 3.0 _ 090 _ 120 __ 35.0 _ Mount Dillon
    Sunflower3 ___________16.0 _ 28.1 _ 2.9 _ 080 _ 115 __ 21.0 _ Valentia
    Rameire _____________ 16.0 _ 27.5 _ 2.9 _ 095 _ 085 __ 44.0 _ Claremorris
    Joe Public ____________15.9 _ 27.9 _ 2.9 _ 076 _ 129 __ 35.3 _ Johnstown Castle
    Dasa29 _____ (-2) ____ 15.8 _ 28.5 _ 4.0 _ 075 _ 120 __ 42.0 _ Valentia
    john mac ____________ 15.8 _ 27.2 _ 2.5 _ 105 _ 107 __ 33.0 _ Newport
    Tae laidir ____________ 15.8 _ 26.8 _ 2.8 _ 105 _ 095 __ 19.0 _ Belmullet
    sryanbruen ___________15.7 _ 26.2 _ 2.5 _ 140 _ 070 __ 50.0 _ Oak Park
    DOCARCH ____________15.6 _ 29.3 _ 3.4 _ 085 _ 125 __ 23.6 _ Valentia
    MrSkinner ___________ 15.6 _ 25.9 _ 4.0 _ 090 _ 095 __ 40.0 _ Valentia
    pauldry ______________15.5 _ 26.1 _ 2.9 _ 108 _ 112 __ 55.0 _ Finner


    NormaL______________ 15.1 _ 26.5 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 50.0 (pts based on climate)

    =========================================================

    An updated version of this scoring table will appear when all data are confirmed. It could be as late as 4-5 September.

    Then we can get around to the summer portion of the four seasons contest, and the annual update.


  • #45
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,227 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Jaysus am I the highest scoring user this month on provisional data? Think that's the first time I've ever gotten it!

    Just goes to show August was a hard to predict month.


  • #46
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Yes, can't guarantee it will end up just like that, but I think most of us just thought the warmth would continue a little more than it did, with the resulting dry and sunny conditions along for the ride, but it wasn't quite like that, without totally becoming a cool or overly wet month.

    Anyway, well done if that is the result or close to it.


  • #47
    Tae laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 731 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Otherwise known as a Normal August.


  • #48
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Apologies for the rather late appearance of the September contest thread:

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=107939123#post107939123


  • #49
    Jpmarn
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,484 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Tae laidir wrote: »
    Otherwise known as a Normal August.

    You typically wouldn't win a monthly by sticking to normal figures. That is how August 2018 was, you would win by sticking to the given figures averaged out over several years. NormaL usually don't do that well in a typical month in Ireland.


  • #50
    adam240610
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 826 ✭✭✭adam240610


    Third in the provisional? That's a shock for me haha, if only I had it a little less sunny.


  • #51
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Final value for IMT is 15.2, all scores lower by 3 (NormaL up 3).

    Final value for PRC is 88%, slight changes to most scores.

    SUN probably will end up near 80% as final seven days average 87.5%, previously had been running a bit lower than 80%.

    Will confirm all contest numbers from MS on 4th or 5th, summer seasonal scoring and annual updates to follow then.


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