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August 2018 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 24-07-2018 2:49am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,187 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the IMT, the average temperature at five locations (Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park, Shannon). The 1981-2010 normal value is 15.1.

    2. Predict the MAX at any location as reported in the Monthly Summary.

    3. Predict the MIN at any location as reported in the Monthly Summary.

    4. Predict the PRC, the average for eleven locations, as % of normal.

    5. Predict the SUN, the average for six locations, as % of normal.

    6. BONUS: What will be the highest 24h rainfall in mm, and location? Points will be 7 and 3, superbomus available.

    Enter by 0300h Wed 1st of August with the usual late penalties.

    As I will be off-line until after that deadline, my forecast for the above is

    MTC _____ 16.1 _ 29.0 _ 2.5 _ 080 _ 120 __ 45.0 Ballyhaise

    and NormaL 15.1 _ 26.5 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 50.0 (pts based on climate)


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen _____ 16.4 _ 29.2 _ 3.5 _ 110 _ 110 __ 35.0 Oak Park

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,713 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal _____ 16.2 _ 30.1 _ 3.8 _ 85 _ 115 __ 42.0 Mount Dillon


  • Registered Users Posts: 747 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    Adam240610 _____ 16.2 _ 29.1 _ 1.8 _ 90 _ 110 _ 40.5 Oak Park


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels ___________ 16.2 _ 31 _ 3.8 _ 070 _ 122__ 41.0 Ballyhaise


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    pauldry___________ 16.0 _ 30 _ 2.9_ 90 _ 113__ 65.0 Finner


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public _____ 15.9 _ 27.9 _ 2.9 _ 76 _ 129 __ 35.3 Johnstown Castle


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,103 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH _____ 15.6 _ 29.3 _ 3.4 _ 085 _ 125 __ 23.6 Valentia


  • Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3 _____ 16.0 _ 28.1 _ 2.9 _ 080 _ 115 __ 21.0 Valentia


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    sryanbruen _____ 16.4 _ 29.2 _ 3.5 _ 110 _ 110 __ 35.0 Oak Park

    Edit: sryanbruen _____ 15.7 _ 26.2 _ 2.5 _ 140 _ 70 __ 50.0 Oak Park

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,554 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Rikand ____ 16.0 ___ 29.0 ___ 3.0 ___ 90 ___ 120 ___ 35.0 Mount Dillon


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    pauldry wrote: »
    pauldry___________ 15.5 _ 26.1_ 2.9_ 108_ 112__ 55.0 Finner

    not as optimistic now


  • Registered Users Posts: 747 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    adam240610 wrote: »
    Adam240610 _____ 16.2 _ 29.1 _ 1.8 _ 90 _ 110 _ 40.5 Oak Park
    Adam240610 _____ 16.2 _ 27.4 _ 1.8 _ 90 _ 110 _ 40.5 Oak Park
    Revised max temp to 27.4, don't see it reaching above 28 let alone 29.


  • Registered Users Posts: 350 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways _____ 16.3_26.6_ 3.0_077_117 __ 36.0 Cork


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,995 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac _____ 15.8 _ 27.2 _ 2.5 _ 105 _ 107 __ 33.0 newport


  • Registered Users Posts: 317 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 16.1 ____ 28.0 ___ 4.0 ___ 82 ___ 120 ___ 38. Cork.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,408 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn _______16.6_30.6_ 2.4_087_125 __ 35.0 Ballyhaise


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,664 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    JCXBXC__16.1_26.1_2.3_090_100_30.1mm Valentia.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts _____ 16.1 _ 28.0 _ 4.5 _ 090 _ 110 __ 35.0 Johnstown Castle


  • Registered Users Posts: 622 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir ___ 15.8 _ 26.8 _ 2.8 _ 105 _ 95 __ 19.0 Belmullet


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,756 ✭✭✭ rameire


    Rameire ___ 16.0_ 27.5 _ 2.9 _ 095 _ 85 __ 44.0 Claremorris


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  • Registered Users Posts: 359 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner_____15.6_____25.9______4_______90______95______40 Valentia


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,772 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa ___________ 16.2 _ 28.4 _ 3.4 _ 92 _ 112 _ 41.0 Belmullet


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    Agh forgot...



    BLIZZARD7 _____ 16.4 _ 29.5 _ 3.0_ 087 _ 120 __ 40.0 Oak Park


  • Registered Users Posts: 457 ✭✭ dasa29


    Agh forgot too

    Dasa29 _____ 15.8 _ 28.5 _ 4.0 _ 075 _ 120 __ 42.0 Valentia


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,187 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for August 2018

    FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max 24h rain, loc'n

    Jpmarn ______________16.6 _ 30.6 _ 2.4 _ 087 _ 125 __ 35.0 _ Ballyhaise
    BLIZZARD7 ___ (-2) ___ 16.4 _ 29.5 _ 3.0 _ 087 _ 120 __ 40.0 _ Oak Park
    waterways ___________ 16.3 _ 26.6 _ 3.0 _ 077 _ 117 __ 36.0 _ Cork
    200motels ___________ 16.2 _ 31.0 _ 3.8 _ 070 _ 122 __ 41.0 _ Ballyhaise
    Bsal ________________ 16.2 _ 30.1 _ 3.8 _ 085 _ 115 __ 42.0 _ Mount Dillon
    Dacogawa ___________ 16.2 _ 28.4 _ 3.4 _ 092 _ 112 __ 41.0 _ Belmullet
    Adam240610 _________ 16.2 _ 27.4 _ 1.8 _ 090 _ 110 __ 40.5 _ Oak Park
    M.T. Cranium _________ 16.1 _ 29.0 _ 2.5 _ 080 _ 120 __ 45.0 _ Ballyhaise
    Kindred Spirit _________16.1 _ 28.0 _ 4.0 _ 082 _ 120 __ 38.0 _ Cork
    mickger844posts ______ 16.1 _ 28.0 _ 4.5 _ 090 _ 110 __ 35.0 _ Johnstown Castle
    JCXBXC _____________ 16.1 _ 26.1 _ 2.3 _ 090 _ 100 __ 30.1 _ Valentia

    Con Sensus __________ 16.1 _ 28.0 _ 3.0 _ 089 _ 115 __ 40.0 _

    Rikand ______________ 16.0 _ 29.0 _ 3.0 _ 090 _ 120 __ 35.0 _ Mount Dillon
    Sunflower3 ___________16.0 _ 28.1 _ 2.9 _ 080 _ 115 __ 21.0 _ Valentia
    Rameire _____________ 16.0 _ 27.5 _ 2.9 _ 095 _ 085 __ 44.0 _ Claremorris
    Joe Public ____________15.9 _ 27.9 _ 2.9 _ 076 _ 129 __ 35.3 _ Johnstown Castle
    Dasa29 _____ (-2) ____ 15.8 _ 28.5 _ 4.0 _ 075 _ 120 __ 42.0 _ Valentia
    john mac ____________ 15.8 _ 27.2 _ 2.5 _ 105 _ 107 __ 33.0 _ Newport
    Tae laidir ____________ 15.8 _ 26.8 _ 2.8 _ 105 _ 095 __ 19.0 _ Belmullet
    sryanbruen ___________15.7 _ 26.2 _ 2.5 _ 140 _ 070 __ 50.0 _ Oak Park
    DOCARCH ____________15.6 _ 29.3 _ 3.4 _ 085 _ 125 __ 23.6 _ Valentia
    MrSkinner ___________ 15.6 _ 25.9 _ 4.0 _ 090 _ 095 __ 40.0 _ Valentia
    pauldry ______________15.5 _ 26.1 _ 2.9 _ 108 _ 112 __ 55.0 _ Finner


    NormaL______________ 15.1 _ 26.5 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 50.0 (pts based on climate)

    _____________________________________________________

    as of 0600h 3rd, 22 forecasts, sdanseo and Lumi were yet to post, for now Con sensus (median) is mean of 11th and 12th ranked in each category.

    Locations chosen for maximum 24h rainfall:

    Valentia 5 (Con scores three if correct for max location)
    Oak Park 3, Ballyhaise 3, Belmullet 2, Cork 2, Mountdillon 2, JC 2 (Con scores two if any of them is max)
    1 for Newport, Finner, Belmullet, Claremorris
    (Con scores one point if correct)

    any other location, Con scores zero, your score is based on rank of your choice, three if you chose max location, two if you chose 2-3 ranked, and one if you choose 4-6 ranked.

    As I will now be off-line for most of August, it would be helpful if forecasters posted some data based on monthly data or ag report or for 24h max rain, yesterday's weather sections of the met.ie website. Thanks and good luck.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Phoenix Park with a max. of 26.2c on August 2nd. Can it stay that way please :D?

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,187 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Just had a bit of internet time, IMT to 9th is 16.1, PRC appears to be fairly low (55% a rough estimate) and SUN about 85% (has been near normal 3rd to 9th per Ag Report, but quite low on first two days, so blend is 85%). Hoping you will post any apparent MAX or MIN candidates and heavy rainfalls if any occur.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    4.5c at Moore Park on the 9th.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    2.6c at Mullingar

    That seems very low for August

    Is it?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 747 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    pauldry wrote: »
    2.6c at Mullingar

    That seems very low for August

    Is it?
    I wouldn't be surprised seeing 0c by the end of the month to be honest.


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