August 2018 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Confirmed scoring for August 2018

IMT was 15.2, MAX 26.6, MIN 1.2, PRC 88% and SUN 78%.

These numbers lead to slight changes in the scoring table posted earlier:

FORECASTER _________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__Max 24h rain, loc'n ___ TOTALS

Confirmed values ______15.2_26.6_1.2_088_078__ 37.0 _ Newport

NormaL______________ 24 _ 19 _ 20*_ 11 _ 06 __ 03 _ 02 _____ 85

JCXBXC _____________ 16 _ 15 _ 18*_ 14 _ 06 __ 05 _ 01 _____ 75
john mac ____________ 19 _ 14 _ 16*_ 09 _ 04 __ 06 _ 03 +1 ___72
Adam240610 _________15 _ 12 _ 19*_ 14 _ 04 __ 06 _ 02 _____ 72
Tae laidir ____________ 19 _ 18 _ 13*_ 09 _ 07 __ 01 _ 02 _____ 69
Rameire _____________17 _ 11 _ 12*_ 13 _ 09 __ 05 _ 00 _____ 67
MrSkinner ___________ 21 _ 13 _ 04*_ 14 _ 07 __ 06 _ 01 _____ 66
sryanbruen __________ 20 _ 16 _ 16*_ 00 _ 08 __ 03 _ 02 _____ 65
waterways ___________14 _ 20 _ 10*_ 11 _ 02 __ 07 _ 00 _____ 64
pauldry _____________ 22 _ 15 _ 12*_ 08 _ 03 __ 01 _ 01 _____ 62
Joe Public ____________18 _ 07 _ 12*_ 11 _ 00 __ 07 _ 01 _____ 56

Con Sensus __________ 16 _ 04 _ 10*_ 15 _ 03 __ 06 _ 02 _____ 56

Sunflower3 ___________17 _ 05 _ 12*_ 12 _ 03 __ 02 _ 01 _____ 52
Rikand ______________ 17 _ 00 _ 10*_ 14 _ 02 __ 07 _ 01 _____ 51
Jpmarn ______________11 _ 00 _ 17*_ 15 _ 01 __ 07 _ 00 _____ 51
Dacogawa ___________ 15 _ 02 _ 08*_ 14 _ 03 __ 06 _ 02 _____ 50
M.T. Cranium _________16 _ 00 _ 16*_ 12 _ 02 __ 04 _ 00 _____ 50
mickger844posts ______16 _ 06 _ 01*_ 14 _ 04 __ 07 _ 01 _____ 49
Kindred Spirit _________16 _ 06 _ 04*_ 13 _ 02 __ 07 _ 00 _____ 48
DOCARCH ____________21 _ 00 _ 08*_ 14 _ 01 __ 02 _ 01 _____ 47
BLIZZARD7 ___ (-2) ___ 13 _ 00 _ 10*_ 15 _ 02 __ 06 _ 02 _48-2=46
Bsal ________________ 15 _ 00 _ 06*_ 14 _ 03 __ 05 _ 01 _____ 44
Dasa29 _____ (-2) _____19 _ 01 _ 04*_ 11 _ 02 __ 05 _ 01 _43-2=41
200motels ___________ 15 _ 00 _ 06*_ 09 _ 01 __ 06 _ 00 _____ 37
______________________________________________________________

About one third of the field scored zero for MAX. I decided against minimum progression when it appeared that quite a few forecasts were
quite close to the actual value and it seemed unfair to boost some scores when there was no room to boost the higher ones.

The situation for MIN was a bit different, all scores were in need of a boost so I applied the standard minimum progression there.

Location points for max rainfall ... if this holds, only one guess for closest location (Newport) and no guesses for either Moore Park or Markree in 2nd and 3rd so shifted the two points to any of 4th to 6th Belmullet, Knock, Oak Park, and one point to any of the remaining top ten including ties, which then included Malin Head, Johnstown Castle, Finner, Mountdillon, Mace Head or Valentia.

Congrats to JCX BXC, John mac and Adam240610 for leading the pack in August.

Annual updates and four seasons report will follow.

=======================================================================

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max 24h rain, loc'n

Jpmarn ______________16.6 _ 30.6 _ 2.4 _ 087 _ 125 __ 35.0 _ Ballyhaise
BLIZZARD7 ___ (-2) ___ 16.4 _ 29.5 _ 3.0 _ 087 _ 120 __ 40.0 _ Oak Park
waterways ___________ 16.3 _ 26.6 _ 3.0 _ 077 _ 117 __ 36.0 _ Cork
200motels ___________ 16.2 _ 31.0 _ 3.8 _ 070 _ 122 __ 41.0 _ Ballyhaise
Bsal ________________ 16.2 _ 30.1 _ 3.8 _ 085 _ 115 __ 42.0 _ Mount Dillon
Dacogawa ___________ 16.2 _ 28.4 _ 3.4 _ 092 _ 112 __ 41.0 _ Belmullet
Adam240610 _________ 16.2 _ 27.4 _ 1.8 _ 090 _ 110 __ 40.5 _ Oak Park
M.T. Cranium _________ 16.1 _ 29.0 _ 2.5 _ 080 _ 120 __ 45.0 _ Ballyhaise
Kindred Spirit _________16.1 _ 28.0 _ 4.0 _ 082 _ 120 __ 38.0 _ Cork
mickger844posts ______ 16.1 _ 28.0 _ 4.5 _ 090 _ 110 __ 35.0 _ Johnstown Castle
JCXBXC _____________ 16.1 _ 26.1 _ 2.3 _ 090 _ 100 __ 30.1 _ Valentia

Con Sensus __________ 16.1 _ 28.0 _ 3.0 _ 089 _ 115 __ 40.0 _

Rikand ______________ 16.0 _ 29.0 _ 3.0 _ 090 _ 120 __ 35.0 _ Mount Dillon
Sunflower3 ___________16.0 _ 28.1 _ 2.9 _ 080 _ 115 __ 21.0 _ Valentia
Rameire _____________ 16.0 _ 27.5 _ 2.9 _ 095 _ 085 __ 44.0 _ Claremorris
Joe Public ____________15.9 _ 27.9 _ 2.9 _ 076 _ 129 __ 35.3 _ Johnstown Castle
Dasa29 _____ (-2) ____ 15.8 _ 28.5 _ 4.0 _ 075 _ 120 __ 42.0 _ Valentia
john mac ____________ 15.8 _ 27.2 _ 2.5 _ 105 _ 107 __ 33.0 _ Newport
Tae laidir ____________ 15.8 _ 26.8 _ 2.8 _ 105 _ 095 __ 19.0 _ Belmullet
sryanbruen ___________15.7 _ 26.2 _ 2.5 _ 140 _ 070 __ 50.0 _ Oak Park
DOCARCH ____________15.6 _ 29.3 _ 3.4 _ 085 _ 125 __ 23.6 _ Valentia
MrSkinner ___________ 15.6 _ 25.9 _ 4.0 _ 090 _ 095 __ 40.0 _ Valentia
pauldry ______________15.5 _ 26.1 _ 2.9 _ 108 _ 112 __ 55.0 _ Finner


NormaL______________ 15.1 _ 26.5 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 50.0 (pts based on climate)

=========================================================

M.T. Cranium

Annual Scoring Summary for 2018 (Jan to Aug)

rank _FORECASTER _______ JAN_FEB_MAR_APR_MAY_JUN_JUL_AUG _ TOTAL _ JUL rank _ best 6/8 (rank)

01 _ Pauldry_____________ 73 _ 58 _ 89 _ 48 _ 76 _ 59 _ 78 _ 62 ___ 543 ___ 01 ____ 437 (1)

(02) _ Con Sensus ________ 73 _ 67 _ 69 _ 51 _ 71 _ 54 _ 84 _ 56 ___ 525 ___(02) ____420 (t 3)

02 _ sryanbruen __________56 _ 71 _ 65 _ 60 _ 74 _ 46 _ 85 _ 65 ___ 522 ___t03 ____ 420 (3)
03 _ Dacogawa ___________71 _ 67 _ 70 _ 67 _ 63 _ 52 _ 71 _ 50 ___ 511 ___ 02 ____ 409 (6)
t04_ Rikand _____________ 66 _ 64 _ 62 _ 61 _ 74 _ 65 _ 65 _ 51 ___ 508 ___t03 ____ 396 (10)
t04_ waterways __________ 81 _ 34 _ 51 _ 73 _ 76 _ 46 _ 83 _ 64 ___ 508 ___ 06 ____ 428 (2)
06 _ Rameire ____________ 52 _ 56 _ 67 _ 49 _ 76 _ 44 _ 88 _ 67 ___ 499 ___ 08 ____ 406 (7)
07 _ Jpmarn _____________71 _ 61 _ 49 _ 57 _ 68 _ 60 _ 81 _ 51 ___ 498 ___ 05 ____ 398 (t 8)
t08_ MrSkinner ___________73 _ 64 _ 72 _ 42 _ 69 _ 36 _ 68 _ 66 ___ 490 ___ 10 ____ 412 (t 4)
t08_ Tae laidir ___________ 78 _ 53 _ 63 _ 47 _ 61 _ 52 _ 67 _ 69 ___ 490 ___ 12 ____ 391 (11)
10 _ JCXBXC _____________34 _ 72 _ 54 _ 43 _ 77 _ 56 _ 78 _ 75 ___ 489 ___t13 ____ 412 (t 4)
11 _ DOCARCH ___________63 _ 62 _ 75 _ 61 _ 68 _ 42 _ 69 _ 47 ___ 487 ___ 07 ____ 398 (t 8)

(12) NormaL ____________ 75 _ 52 _ 48 _ 71 _ 63 _ 31 _ 59 _ 85 ___ 484 ___(18) ____ 405 (8)

12 _ M.T. Cranium ________ 60 _ 45 _ 52 _ 56 _ 86 _ 49 _ 77 _ 50 ___ 475 ___ 09 ____ 381 (t 14)
t13_ mickger844posts _____ 75 _ 77 _ 69 _ 42 _ 54 _ 44 _ 62 _ 49 ___ 472 ___ 11 ____ 386 (13)
t13_ Joe Public ___________ 35 _ 62 _ 48 _ 81 _ 61 _ 66 _ 63 _ 56 ___ 472 ___t13 ____ 389 (12)
15 _ sunflower3 __________ 68 _ 56 _ 63 _ 58 _ 57 _ 41 _ 65 _ 52 ___ 460 ___t15 ____ 367 (17)
16 _ BLIZZARD7 __________27 _ 73 _ 46 _ 70 _ 92 _ 52 _ 48 _ 46 ___ 454 ___t15 ____ 381 (t 14)
17 _ john mac ____________48 _ 58 _ 58 _ 42 _ 63 _ 39 _ 67 _ 72 ___ 447 ___ 22 ____ 366 (18)
18 _ Kindred Spirit ________ 59 _ 56 _ 55 _ 28 _ 66 _ 57 _ 77 _ 48 ___ 446 ___ 18 ____ 370 (16)
19 _ Bsal ________________63 _ 49 _ 71 _ 38 _ 56 _ 34 _ 71 _ 44 ___ 426 ___ 19 ____ 354 (20)
20 _ dasa29 _____________ 69 _ 40 _ 83 _ 43 _ 54 _ 35 _ 57 _ 41 ___ 422 ___ 20 ____ 347 (21)
21 _ 200motels ___________36 _ 65 _ 47 _ 49 _ 85 _ 32 _ 62 _ 37 ___ 413 ___ 21 ____ 345 (22)
22 _ sdanseo _____________45 _ 61 _ 57 _ 52 _ 57 _ 64 _ 65 _ --- ___ 401 ___ 17 ____ 356 (19)
23 _ Lumi _______________ 54 _ 54 _ 62 _ --- _ 77 _ 55 _ --- _--- ___ 302 ___ 23
24 _ Adam240610 ________ --- _ --- _ 56 _ --- _ ---_ --- _ 64 _ 72 ___ 192 ___ 25
25 _ Artane2002 __________--- _ --- _ ---_ 59 _ 57 _ 47 _ --- _ --- ___ 163 ___ 24
________________________________________________________________________________________

Note: The column headed "Jul rank" shows previous month's position in total score. The July table had the same column header but it should have read June rank then. I was on holiday etc etc. The order of this table will switch over to best 7 of 9 in September and from then on will be best 8 of 10 in Oct, 9 of 11 in Nov and 10 of 12 in Dec. ... Ranks for your best 6 of 8 scores appear after those totals (last entry).

Congrats to Pauldry who remains ahead of Con Sensus in the total score and best 6 of 8, and to waterways and sryanbruen who are ahead or keeping pace with Con in the best 6 of 8 portion. Dacogawa and Rikand are also close in the total score.

Next and last report will be four seasons summer portion of contest update ...

M.T. Cranium

Four Seasons contest update

Points for summer total score (Jun, Jul, Aug)

FORECASTER __ Total score __ Points

JCX BXC _______ 209 _______ 10
Pauldry ________ 199 ________ 7
Rameire ________199 ________ 7
sryanbruen _____ 196 ________ 5

__ Con Sensus __ 194 ________ (4)

waterways ______ 193 ________ 4
JPmarn _________192 ________ 3
tae laidir ________188 ________ 2
Joe Public _______185 ________ 1
Kindred Spirit ____182 ________ 1
rikand __________181 ________ 1
john mac _______ 178
M.T. Cranium ____ 176

NormaL ________ 175

(lower scores .. dac 173 .. MrS 170 .. DOC 158 .. sun 158 ... mick 155 ... Bsal 149 ... BLIZ 146 ... dasa 133 ... 200m 131)



(winter, spring and summer seasons points totals)

FORECASTER _________ Winter __ Spring ___ Summer ___ TOTAL to date

Pauldry _______________ 6 ________10 _______ 7 _______ 23
JPmarn ______________ 10 ________ -- _______ 3 _______ 13
JCX BXC ______________ -- ________ -- ______ 10 _______ 10
Tae laidir ______________7 ________ -- _______ 2 _________9
Waterways ____________ -- ________ 5 _______ 4 _________9

___ Con Sensus_________4 ________ 1 _______ 4 _________ 9

Dacogawa _____________ 5 ________ 3 _______ -- ________ 8
sryanbruen ___________ -- ________ 4 ________ 4 ________ 8
rameire _______________-- ________ 1 ________7 ________ 8
BLIZZARD7 ____________-- ________ 7 _______ -- ________ 7

___ NormaL____________7 ________ -- _______ -- ________ 7

DOCARCH _____________ -- ________6 _______ -- ________ 6
mickger844posts _______ 4 ________ -- _______ -- ________ 4
rikand ________________1 ________ 2 ________ 1 ________ 4
MrSkinner _____________3 ________ -- _______ -- ________ 3
sunflower3 ____________ 2 ________ -- _______ -- ________ 2
Kindred Spirit __________ 1 ________ -- _______ 1 ________ 2
Joe Public _____________ -- ________ 1 _______ 1 ________ 2
John mac _____________ 1 ________ -- _______ -- ________ 1
M.T. Cranium __________ -- ________ 1 _______ -- ________ 1

_________________________________________________________________

Pauldry now needs only one point in the autumn portion to win this contest.