Brexit discussion thread IV

Harika · 09-07-2018 3:48pm

Now she is selling the Brexit dividend, what does betting say how long she will survive?
Edit: https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/exit-dates-theresa-may
2018 just not which month

Leroy42 · 09-07-2018 3:48pm

Harika wrote: »

May brings up the new technology what will be brought forward to solve the border import issues. lol That this is not dead yet and brought back up to life while every SME says it won't work in time for Brexit.

Brought forward!

that makes it sound like they have it all ready but they were just holding out for the latest version or something.

Rather then the fact that they haven't even begun to look for tenders.

Nody · 09-07-2018 3:58pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

Are you aware of the implications of the path you are suggesting? Hard Border in NI, so reneging on an International agreement against the wishes of both the people in ROI and NI for a start.

Either massive issues with ports and airports, or temporarily opening the borders, which my first bet would see the entire camp at Calais move to the UK.

Which if you excuse me being cruel here is the best possible outcome for all parties. Now here's the cruel part; UK needs to go through a steel bath to shed the current leadership (both parties) and lies of EU and the implications. Yes that will cost them billion, thousands are likely to die due to it and it will cause a lot of pain and ramp up racist tendencies which will take a long time to heal. However I also think it's the only way they will ever get through their heads how deeply they been lied to is to go through that and find out the lies told over the decades. It's the only way for the voter base to see the reality of things and see beyond the "Lulz UK is a Empire all want our goods" view that is predominant today. In the long term that is the only real positive effect of a hard brexit; the fact they need to deal with all the lies and BS they been feed for ages.

Itssoeasy · 09-07-2018 4:00pm

It's a feisty House of Commons. Teresa may came back swinging after Jeremy Corbyn has his say.

Larbre34 · 09-07-2018 4:14pm

Itssoeasy wrote: »

It's a feisty House of Commons. Teresa may came back swinging after Jeremy Corbyn has his say.

But not on the issue.

Itssoeasy · 09-07-2018 4:17pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

Itssoeasy wrote: »

It's a feisty House of Commons. Teresa may came back swinging after Jeremy Corbyn has his say.

But not on the issue.

Well yeah fair point but she couldn't just sit there and not say anything. Swinging and missing is better than not swinging.

LeinsterDub · 09-07-2018 4:17pm

They said: "If she doesn't drop Chequers there will be another, then another, then another, then another".

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44771475

Surely Gove is the only one of note left?

dudara · 09-07-2018 4:17pm

There had been a covenant of sorts in the Tory party that no one would challenge for the leadership until 2019, as no one wanted the poisoned chalice of being the Brexit PM. I wonder how all that will play out now, the timeline is getting tighter every day, and the risks are growing even greater.

Penn · 09-07-2018 4:19pm

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

How is it her worst decision? All these people desire the top job. Getting it is the prize, and then holding onto it for as long as possible. Extraordinary times gave her a shot she otherwise would have been unlikely to receive. Had Remain carried the referendum, Cameron would still likely be PM facing off Corbyn on social / economic issues in the UK.

As it is, she is fixed in history forever, the second female Prime Minister ever and one who will have her contributions and period in charge analysed by Political commentators and students long after she's dead. That's what these people live for.

It was the prize they aspire to, but at the wrong time, knowing she would have to try and negotiate and deliver a Brexit that she herself didn't believe in and didn't believe it was in the best interests of the country.

I don't think any of them live for being a bad PM, which Theresa May will likely go down as given the absolute failure so far of the Brexit negotiations, her hubris in calling a General Election and losing their majority, and especially if in the coming weeks she is ousted by her own party.

I know they all aspire to the top job and to go down in history, but knowing the country was facing the challenge that was/is Brexit and not believing in it before the referendum, it was the wrong move for her at the wrong time. She should have waited until post-Brexit, however it ended up, and made her move at that stage. As a Remainer, she simply should not have gone for the position after the Leave vote won.

Professor Moriarty · 09-07-2018 4:20pm

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44771475

Surely Gove is the only one of note left?

Personally, I think Fox will go next. Gove went on TV on Sunday defending May and her Chequers deal so I can't see how he could resign with any credibility. Which means he could well resign, of course.

09-07-2018 4:20pm

She's coming across well but there are too many paradoxes in the plans. And the BBC is ages behind and makes her look like a ghost compared to the live stream on partiamentlive.tv.

I was expecting her to be flailing more.

kunst nugget · 09-07-2018 4:22pm

Nody wrote: »

Which if you excuse me being cruel here is the best possible outcome for all parties. Now here's the cruel part; UK needs to go through a steel bath to shed the current leadership (both parties) and lies of EU and the implications. Yes that will cost them billion, thousands are likely to die due to it and it will cause a lot of pain and ramp up racist tendencies which will take a long time to heal. However I also think it's the only way they will ever get through their heads how deeply they been lied to is to go through that and find out the lies told over the decades. It's the only way for the voter base to see the reality of things and see beyond the "Lulz UK is a Empire all want our goods" view that is predominant today. In the long term that is the only real positive effect of a hard brexit; the fact they need to deal with all the lies and BS they been feed for ages.

The problem is that there's a lot of people in Britain that don't think like that all that are going to be massively impacted by a hard Brexit. I wouldn't feel the need to say 'Good enough for you!' to these people who are going to suffer for someone else's ideology.

Infini · 09-07-2018 4:23pm

The Purge: Downing Street.

Bout the only way to describe this. It's been needed for a long time but the illogical headbangers need to be pushed out, they have 0 interest in peoples wellbeing only their illogical BS and this honestly should've happened sooner.

Now comes the moment of truth. If the Bullshyteers are sidelined then there's hope that this mess can be brought to an end. A total discrediting of their ideas is the only way to end their carryon once and for all. If they win out then when the shyte hits the fan they'll be remembered as the fools who ended the UK.

Harika · 09-07-2018 4:24pm

dudara wrote: »

There had been a covenant of sorts in the Tory party that no one would challenge for the leadership until 2019, as no one wanted the poisoned chalice of being the Brexit PM. I wonder how all that will play out now, the timeline is getting tighter every day, and the risks are growing even greater.

Election, let Labour be Brexit PM. Claim the mess was Labour not the Torries and at the next election get the PM back.

seamus · 09-07-2018 4:26pm

dudara wrote: »

There had been a covenant of sorts in the Tory party that no one would challenge for the leadership until 2019, as no one wanted the poisoned chalice of being the Brexit PM. I wonder how all that will play out now, the timeline is getting tighter every day, and the risks are growing even greater.

Maybe double-down; hand the reins to Labour and let Jeremy be the captain of the sinking ship?

At this stage I don't think any UK government can save the UK and themselves. Try to withdraw Brexit, or push through a really soft Brexit, and the tabloid press will savage you and call you a traitor, even if you do save the UK economy.
Bull and go with a hard Brexit, the UK economy tanks, and you're the guy who couldn't make it work, you're the overseer of the worst UK economy in centuries.

In the short-to-medium term, it's lose-lose for whoever has the PM's seat in the UK. I thought the chalice couldn't get any more poison than when May lifted it...but here we are.

Leroy42 · 09-07-2018 4:32pm

Infini wrote: »

Now comes the moment of truth. If the Bullshyteers are sidelined then there's hope that this mess can be brought to an end. A total discrediting of their ideas is the only way to end their carryon once and for all. If they win out then when the shyte hits the fan they'll be remembered as the fools who ended the UK.

The new Brexit Secretary, Dominic Raab, is a Brexiteer.

In an interview a fortnight ago, Raab said he supported a “full-fat Brexit” but “never said there weren’t risks with Brexit”.

“The truth is, there are risks and there are rewards; there are risks and there are opportunities,” he told the House magazine. “So, yes, let’s take the risks seriously. I don’t want to be cavalier about that. But let’s also grasp the opportunities. If we do that and we show a team effort, then this country will go on to bigger, better things.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/09/dominic-raab-appointed-new-brexit-secretary-in-uk-cabinet-reshuffle

Beechwoodspark · 09-07-2018 4:39pm

Gove stoutly defended the proposal on tv yest so if he resigned today he would look absolutely idiotic. But then...this is Michael Gove we are talking about. So it’s all relative.

Harika · 09-07-2018 4:46pm

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1016344708510048256

5,4,3,?

It is on, TM is on the death bed and the backstabbers are coming

Seth Brundle · 09-07-2018 4:48pm

Two humourous tweets from YLYL in this moment of madness...

https://twitter.com/haveigotnews/status/1016325482802024453

https://twitter.com/David_Cameron/status/595112367358406656

An Ciarraioch · 09-07-2018 4:59pm

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1016350766288789504

Igotadose · 09-07-2018 5:02pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1016350766288789504

Sorry for naivete here; if the PM loses the no confidence vote, then the Torys will need to pick a new PM, but does that 'collapse the government?' None of this necessitates another election, does it? It's up to the PM to call it?

Nody · 09-07-2018 5:05pm

Igotadose wrote: »

Sorry for naivete here; if the PM loses the no confidence vote, then the Torys will need to pick a new PM, but does that 'collapse the government?' None of this necessitates another election, does it? It's up to the PM to call it?

The new PM can continue on without a GE; esp. in this case they can blame for example Brexit and state due to the short time let there's not time for a GE at this time.

LeinsterDub · 09-07-2018 5:09pm

Igotadose wrote: »

Sorry for naivete here; if the PM loses the no confidence vote, then the Torys will need to pick a new PM, but does that 'collapse the government?' None of this necessitates another election, does it? It's up to the PM to call it?

An election requires a vote of no confidence in the government . This is an internal tory issue

Imreoir2 · 09-07-2018 5:11pm

It's hard to make TM's statements today add up with reality. Either she believes the EU will back down, or she believes she can fool everyone and agree a deal with the EU despite having ruled that kind of deal out again and again, or she believes that she is going to be ousted from No 10 and may as well go down promising a Brexit she can't deliver?

An Ciarraioch · 09-07-2018 5:11pm

Igotadose wrote: »

Sorry for naivete here; if the PM loses the no confidence vote, then the Torys will need to pick a new PM, but does that 'collapse the government?' None of this necessitates another election, does it? It's up to the PM to call it?

Yes, unlike what happened here with Albert and Bertie, the role of PM is only invested in the governing party, rather than Parliament, so in theory the Tories can carry on until 2022.

Kermit.de.frog · 09-07-2018 5:11pm

Leadership contest probably needed to totally clear the decks and give either TM or someone else new authority to proceed.

The whole thing is chaos as it is.

TM was laughed at in the commons by quite a few MP's.

Feel sorry for her in a way. She does not believe in Brexit and is hostage to the tory lunatic fringe.

Leroy42 · 09-07-2018 5:13pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Leadership contest probably needed to totally clear the decks and give either TM or someone else new authority to proceed.

The whole thing is chaos as it is.

TM was laughed at in the commons by quite a few MP's.

Isn't that what May's election to PM was supposed to achieve?

Table Top Joe · 09-07-2018 5:17pm

Nody wrote: »

Which if you excuse me being cruel here is the best possible outcome for all parties. Now here's the cruel part; UK needs to go through a steel bath to shed the current leadership (both parties) and lies of EU and the implications. Yes that will cost them billion, thousands are likely to die due to it and it will cause a lot of pain and ramp up racist tendencies which will take a long time to heal. However I also think it's the only way they will ever get through their heads how deeply they been lied to is to go through that and find out the lies told over the decades. It's the only way for the voter base to see the reality of things and see beyond the "Lulz UK is a Empire all want our goods" view that is predominant today. In the long term that is the only real positive effect of a hard brexit; the fact they need to deal with all the lies and BS they been feed for ages.

I was convinced of pretty much the same thing after Trump won the White House and the Republicans won everything else back in 16, “if there’s one positive it is these people will be shown up for the chancers they are”.......now things may change in November for the Republicans but Trumps approval ratings have been solid since day one(low but solid, and solid enough that there’s no reason he couldn’t win again tomorrow or in 2020)

I think you give some the leavers far too much credit, there is literally nothing that can change some people’s mind they’re just too thick *shrugs shoulders*, Brexit may well bring them hardship but you can bet your life it won’t be Nigel Farage or Boris bloody Johnson’s fault it will be May or Europe etc, the only positive I see from this is it may encourage more people to vote

Imreoir2 · 09-07-2018 5:18pm

Igotadose wrote: »

Sorry for naivete here; if the PM loses the no confidence vote, then the Torys will need to pick a new PM, but does that 'collapse the government?' None of this necessitates another election, does it? It's up to the PM to call it?

A GE would not be required but could happen. It would depend on the PM that's picked to replace her. Would they persue a no-deal policy that some of their own party would collapse the government over? Would they be able to maintain the support of the DUP?

seamus · 09-07-2018 5:23pm

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Would they be able to maintain the support of the DUP?

While I can't see the DUP giving up the only shot at power they're going to have for the foreseeable, their dogmatism makes them unpredictable. Leadership might be an internal matter for the Tories, but if the pick is someone who rankles the DUP for whatever reason, then you never know where they'll go.

Brexit discussion thread IV

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