Brexit discussion thread IV

An Ciarraioch

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Riddle me this brexit fans. How can JRM's ERG have 60 members and a rumoured 20 more at their meeting tonight yet the 22 committee doesn't have the votes?

Presumably they were taking the political temperature first.

Havockk

Pound going down.

LeinsterDub

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Presumably they were taking the political temperature first.

Now I'm starting this with I assume so expect to be wrong. But. I assume they are all fundamentally hard core brexit supports , May is attempting to deliver a soft one so why not get rid of her?

Rjd2

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Now I'm starting this with I assume so expect to be wrong. But. I assume they are all fundamentally hard core brexit supports , May is attempting to deliver a soft one so why not get rid of her?

Because the hard core Brexiters are very much in the minority when it comes to Tor MPS? Its why talk of Mogg been PM is so silly as there is no genuine route to him to that spot.

Havockk

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Now I'm starting this with I assume so expect to be wrong. But. I assume they are all fundamentally hard core brexit supports , May is attempting to deliver a soft one so why not get rid of her?

I'm guessing timing is the issue. They would want to wait until it was too late to negotiate anything else. So any time now.

Beechwoodspark

May has sent a fairly hard hitting letter back to Boris. It’s like east Enders at this stage

Infini

Havockk wrote: »

Pound going down.

I'm waiting on it to hit parity with the Euro (then buy ALL the goods! )

briany

Infini wrote: »

I'm waiting on it to hit parity with the Euro (then buy ALL the goods! )

That sweet spot where the Pound hits parity with the Euro but before the UK officially leaves on WTO terms, so that we have to pay a big chunk of customs on what we're buying.

LeinsterDub

“We will vote down the deal unless it meets our six tests,” a party source said. “Even if we are walking down the corridor with Tory Brexiters, we are still voting on the lines we have set ourselves.”

So to put the last 3 days into context. The British government has imploded over a plan half of them don't agree with, doesn't have the numbers to make it though parliament and will be rejected by the EU
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/09/labour-poised-to-vote-down-brexit-deal

An Ciarraioch

Johnson's PPS (what we would call a Junior Minister) has resigned.

TomOnBoard

Total implosion of UK Government.. What with the UK's Brexit and US Trump debacles, Putin must be laughing his balding little head off!!

embraer170

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

May has sent a fairly hard hitting letter back to Boris. It’s like east Enders at this stage

Do you have a link to it?

ancapailldorcha

Here you go:

FrancieBrady

Latest one to go...I think!

https://twitter.com/ConorBurnsUK/status/1016395619638837249

Topgear on Dave

Faisal Islam from C4 news on Twitter.

"No Boris is better than a bad Boris"

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1016408871215226881

sdanseo

Is the General Election - Labour Government - second refrendum option possible here? Hard to see why on earth she would call one, but equally hard to see any other outcome but a hardline Tory coup. Is it conceivable that she would seek a dissolution purely to deny them this and is that even possible under their makey-up constitution?

I know they have the Fixed Term Parliaments Act but May was able to circumnavigate that last time.

Hard to predict how the public would react if she did it again. She would be essentially signing her abdication, surely?

devnull

Jeremy Hunt new foreign secretary

Leroy42

Quite an extraordinary couple of days.

May thought, or at least the impression was created, that she had arrived at a consensus position for the cabinet. They may not all agree, but had been convinced by the argument that this was an acceptable way forward.

Within a few days the whole thing has come crashing down. The spin of course will be that TM was prepared for this, that she is better off without them if they can't agree. But fundamentally TM has been shown up to be unable to even bring those that she has worked most closely with, is is the leader to, along with her idea of where Brexit is going. Remembering that this 3rd way was as a result of the previous 2 other plans put forward by TM being roundly rejected by her cabinet and then the EU.

In any normal democracy TM would have already resigned. The latest BRexit Secretary, I mean why is he coming on board. Has he suddenly moved to the soft brexit camp, as only two weeks ago is was all for a hard brexit? And if not why is she taking hi on. Surely the time for trying to get everybody working together is long gone. TM, as PM, has stated her preference. It is not a proposal. This is, she believes after listening to all sides, the way forward. So surely the people she wants working for her at least agree on the path forward?

TM may, or may not, limp on. But she has no authority and the Tories know it, Labour knows it, the media know it and the EU certainly know it. Why would the EU enter into any agreement with TM knowing that:
1) she probably won't get the rest of the government to agree and,
2) that even if she does she hasn't a hope of making it stick.

FrancieBrady

Has anyone told him Boris isn't coming?

https://twitter.com/MiRo_SPD/status/1016301264257372161

briany

sdanseo wrote: »

Is the General Election - Labour Government - second refrendum option possible here? Hard to see why on earth she would call one, but equally hard to see any other outcome but a hardline Tory coup. Is it conceivable that she would seek a dissolution purely to deny them this and is that even possible under their makey-up constitution?

I know they have the Fixed Term Parliaments Act but May was able to circumnavigate that last time.

Hard to predict how the public would react if she did it again. She would be essentially signing her abdication, surely?

It's hard to say who'd even win another GE over there. Remain supporters appear to have no credible party, since both main parties' official position advocates for Brexit in one form or another. Maybe if Labour got the numbers, they could attempt a coalition with the Lib Dems and/or the SNP, and then we'd see a compromise leading to a second ref, but a second ref would also be further polarising. And if Labour did make a coalition with the SNP, they'd be accused of bringing regional politics into the heart of government, like with the Con-DUP, and allowing that to hold the whole process to ransom.

Pessimistic, but I can only see more chaos. The only positive being a change in flavour.

TomOnBoard

This is for Boris- just to prove that it is possible to bring up a big shine..

ARNOLD J RIMMER

Leroy42 wrote: »

Quite an extraordinary couple of days.

May thought, or at least the impression was created, that she had arrived at a consensus position for the cabinet. They may not all agree, but had been convinced by the argument that this was an acceptable way forward.

Within a few days the whole thing has come crashing down. The spin of course will be that TM was prepared for this, that she is better off without them if they can't agree. But fundamentally TM has been shown up to be unable to even bring those that she has worked most closely with, is is the leader to, along with her idea of where Brexit is going. Remembering that this 3rd way was as a result of the previous 2 other plans put forward by TM being roundly rejected by her cabinet and then the EU.

In any normal democracy TM would have already resigned. The latest BRexit Secretary, I mean why is he coming on board. Has he suddenly moved to the soft brexit camp, as only two weeks ago is was all for a hard brexit? And if not why is she taking hi on. Surely the time for trying to get everybody working together is long gone. TM, as PM, has stated her preference. It is not a proposal. This is, she believes after listening to all sides, the way forward. So surely the people she wants working for her at least agree on the path forward?

TM may, or may not, limp on. But she has no authority and the Tories know it, Labour knows it, the media know it and the EU certainly know it. Why would the EU enter into any agreement with TM knowing that:
1) she probably won't get the rest of the government to agree and,
2) that even if she does she hasn't a hope of making it stick.

I don't think May thought it was all done and dusted in Chequers. She knew she wouldn't get embarrassed by MPs walking out of the meeting. She would have seen the resignations coming once they left the meeting.

She will work with parties across parliament to get support. This way when ( not if ) the EU reject the deal the blame can be passed to all parties involved.

It's a case now of if opposition parties fall for if or let the Tories fall on the sword.

Thargor

Have to agree with this, did Johnson even mention her before he left? RTE giving it more coverage than BBC or Sky. The chamber had about 10 people in it for the briefing earlier:

https://twitter.com/Max_Fisher/status/1016324334493880320

Thargor

Lol:

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1016325032698695682

Pa8301

Thargor wrote: »

Lol:

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1016325032698695682

To be fair, I don't think Malcolm Tucker would stand for this sh*tshow!

Itssoeasy

Theresa May makes Jim Hacker looks competent.

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/ajayjagota/status/1016415814931615745

If this is believed we could be witnessing one of shortest lived cabinets

An Ciarraioch

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1016417713852436480

Capt'n Midnight

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Letters written out but not delivered until after @POTUS visit

Ah , that might explain the lull , rather than a coup

Then again a week is a long time in politics, and that would give May some time.

Rjd2

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1016417713852436480

May is playing hard ball here with the promotion of Hancock and Hunt who are remainers. She is giving the leavers nothing.

Also

for those who don't like clicking, Mogg doesn't feel they have the numbers to get rid of May so focus will switch to the white paper.

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1016414362213351424