Brexit discussion thread IV

Professor Moriarty

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

(non)reaction on the EU side
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-44762836

There was a reporter on the radio from the FT. They did some analysis and concluded that Davis spent a total of four hours speaking with Barnier in the past year. Robbins, on the other hand, spends many days in Brussels on a monthly basis.

LeinsterDub

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Two precedents in the recent past - firstly, Major replacing Thatcher in 1990, followed by Brown succeeding Blair in 2007.

Or even TM herself took over from Cameron.

Zubeneschamali

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Irish govt line is that this resignation is an internal British matter and nothing has changed since Friday.

Friday changed nothing either - the only things that matter are the actual negotiations. Until the UK team bring a proposal to the negotiations, all this Chequers/Westminster excitement is just noise.

Itssoeasy

On bbc five live a caller is saying the EU are blocking everything and the uk have been bending over backwards to try and work this out. I mean bending over backwards might not be correct in fairness.

lawred2

Itssoeasy wrote: »

On bbc five live a caller is saying the EU are blocking everything and the uk have been bending over backwards to try and work this out. I mean bending over backwards might not be correct in fairness.

just heard something similar on another phone in show...

mind boggles

Nody

Itssoeasy wrote: »

On bbc five live a caller is saying the EU are blocking everything and the uk have been bending over backwards to try and work this out. I mean bending over backwards might not be correct in fairness.

It all depends on what you think of as the starting position; if you look purely at UK's position May's paper is bending backwards with a year or two ago. That it's still utterly ridiculous and has zero chance in reality does not change that from someone uneducated about EU and how EU works. And that in turn falls back on both the newspapers and more importantly politicians failure to explain EU to the population in the first place which is what lead us here.

Itssoeasy

lawred2 wrote: »

just heard something similar on another phone in show...

mind boggles

Also they seem to think that brexit was the right thing to do and it's going okay. 1) no it's not really and 2) in no way is it going remotely well if looked at objectively.

swampgas

I think DD just wanted a good excuse to get out, he knew there was no way he could deliver on Brexit. Some good comments here:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/09/he-didnt-want-to-be-left-holding-the-baby-readers-on-davis-resignation

I think this comment nails it:

"The irony is that he is now being described as “principled” for running away from the very process he fought to set in motion’
Davis has wanted an excuse to do this for months: to resign on “principle” instead of having to actually figure out how to proceed with wrecking the country. He almost had it last month and then at the last minute decided it wasn’t going to look “principled” enough.

All his “activity” in “negotiating” with the EU has mostly involved booking flights and hotel rooms. Nothing else was achieved. Every direction he turned he got the same answer: Brexit is a man-made disaster, and all his pontification over the years was based on his own complete ignorance of basic facts about the EU. He spent most of the referendum campaign claiming the U.K. would negotiate individually with Germany, France, etc.! He literally had no clue about even the basics of how the EU works.

The irony is that he is now being described as “principled” for running away from the very process he fought for so long to set in motion, now he’s realised what a disaster it will inevitably be." -danielearwicker

Leroy42

So in effect, DD has admitted that his approach to Brexit and its negotiations has failed miserably, and now has simply walked away with only a few months left.

And instead of blaming himself for failing to deliver anything on which TM could work with, he instead blames TM for failing to deliver despite him complete failure.

ancapailldorcha

Leo Varadkar has weighed in:

Earlier last night, Mr Varadkar said the UK must be a full member of the European Single Market, or else stay out of it entirely, in response to Ms May’s latest Brexit plan.
He gave a cautious welcome to the deal agreed by the British cabinet, which he hailed as a “real political success” for Ms May.

In his first public comments since the UK cabinet agreed the new approach last Friday – which moves Britain towards a so-called soft Brexit – Mr Varadkar said he was more optimistic than before that an EU-UK exit deal could be struck by the end of the year.

I mean, the government knew this full well before employing the divide and conquer tactics and they've frittered away most of the time allowed under Article 50. It seems that they are slowly coming around but deadlines don't allow for slow, unfortunately for them.

ArmaniJeanss

Dominic Raab moves from Housing to be the new Brexit Minister.

wiki bio
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominic_Raab

Professor Moriarty

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Dominic Raab moves from Housing to be the new Brexit Minister.

wiki bio
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominic_Raab

A Brexiteer.

lawred2

Leroy42 wrote: »

So in effect, DD has admitted that his approach to Brexit and its negotiations has failed miserably, and now has simply walked away with only a few months left.

And instead of blaming himself for failing to deliver anything on which TM could work with, he instead blames TM for failing to deliver despite him complete failure.

Mod: No more name calling please.

Water John

The Hard Brexiteers have lost faith in both Gove and Johnson, it seems. Let that small club coalesce around Mogg.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/08/haunted-boris-johnson-toes-the-soft-brexit-line-for-now

Johnson quoted recently as saying, 'we might as well stay in the EU', says it all really.
Davis, Gove and Johnson, all considered potential leaders have all been fatally damaged by Brexit.

Imreoir2

While it seems that despite the obviously flawed nature of the UK's proposal, May does want to move in the direction of an acceptable and close relationship with the EU. The basic problems that have been there from the start remain unchanged, however. She has at best 20 weeks to sort the mess out and get a deal agreed. Does anyone believe that she can climb down from all her red lines, and agree a backstop in that period of time?

What I am not clear on is the level of detail needed by the end of the year. My understanding is that a full deal does not need to be in place, only the Withdrawl Treaty (of which it is really only the Backstop that is missing) and a "detailed joint political declaration" on the future relationship, which can be put into final form during the transition period. The question is, just how detailed does the political declaration have to be? Of course the EU wont agree to a declaration that accepts the breakup of the single market etc, but there might be some room for manouver, and constructive fudging there? Then again, the willingness of the EU to accomodate the UK in this way is surely at a low ebb by now.

May might be hoping that if she can get the withdrawl treaty sorted, the EU will allow her to phrase the future relationship section of the agreement in sufficiently vague terms to allow negioation to move forward into the transition phase without having to compleatly abandon her red lines domestically before the end of the year.

If that is her game, she might be planning to make a few concessions on the future relationship and to hold back the backstop, and only agree to it at the last minute, selling it at home as the necessary evil to prevent a no-deal Brexit. She might be hoping that the EU will accept the withdrawl treaty and allow some of the other issues to be kicked into the transition period.

lawred2

lawred2 wrote: »

Mod: No more name calling please.

that looks like whatever name calling you've objected to was aimed at Leroy - the poster I quoted

for the record it wasn't

ancapailldorcha

lawred2 wrote: »

that looks like whatever name calling you've objected to was aimed at Leroy - the poster I quoted

for the record it wasn't

I'm aware of that. It was aimed at David Davis. Either way, it's unacceptable. Let's leave it at that.

McGiver

cryptocurrency wrote: »

LeinsterDub wrote: »

How can you honestly say people knew they were voting for a hard Brexit?

taking back control is just that.

Control they never lost? Hilarious.

Enzokk

So Andrea Leadsom on The Daily Politics just said that free movement of people will end. That is fine, it can be a fudged, but what was interesting is that she said that unlike the interview Theresa May gave on Saturday EU citizens will not be given preferential treatment over any other nation. So we are back to a hard Brexit again.

Then again she is also under the pretension that if the UK is a part of the single market they will not be a rule taker. So in one way you can ignore her as her views seems completely void of logic, yet she is in Cabinet and she will have a lot of supporters as well.

flatty

Leroy42 wrote: »

flatty wrote: »

That is a most interesting, and slightly reassuring post, but, surely she can see that failing to have another referendum is a perversion of democracy given even the change in demographic since the original.
Anyhow I can see why one would be dissuaded from this also.

If true, then how can we reconcile it with her 1st speech on Brexit (Lancaster House I think) where she laid out very hard red lines almost guaranteeing a hard brexit (unless the EU folded).

The logic would need to be that she drove the cabinet, and the country, to believe that hard brexit was a good option when all the time she knew it was a terrible idea? So her grand plan was to lie for two years before finally pulling the big reveal?

Sorry, I'm not buying it

Me neither tbh.

lawred2

Enzokk wrote: »

So Andrea Leadsom on The Daily Politics just said that free movement of people will end. That is fine, it can be a fudged, but what was interesting is that she said that unlike the interview Theresa May gave on Saturday EU citizens will not be given preferential treatment over any other nation. So we are back to a hard Brexit again.

Then again she is also under the pretension that if the UK is a part of the single market they will not be a rule taker. So in one way you can ignore her as her views seems completely void of logic, yet she is in Cabinet and she will have a lot of supporters as well.

Surely freedom of movement can not end in any situation short of hard Brexit!

Zubeneschamali

Enzokk wrote: »

So Andrea Leadsom on The Daily Politics just said that free movement of people will end. That is fine, it can be a fudged

Well, no. That means they are right out of the Single Market for goods, which is something May claims she wants.

Zubeneschamali

lawred2 wrote: »

Surely freedom of movement can not end in any situation short of hard Brexit!

It means no Single Market, but they could still have a Free Trade deal like Canada, a Customs Union like Turkey or an Association Agreement like Ukraine.

It is all the other UK red lines which rule those out.

Strazdas

Enzokk wrote: »

So Andrea Leadsom on The Daily Politics just said that free movement of people will end. That is fine, it can be a fudged, but what was interesting is that she said that unlike the interview Theresa May gave on Saturday EU citizens will not be given preferential treatment over any other nation. So we are back to a hard Brexit again.

Then again she is also under the pretension that if the UK is a part of the single market they will not be a rule taker. So in one way you can ignore her as her views seems completely void of logic, yet she is in Cabinet and she will have a lot of supporters as well.

That means no chance of access to the Single Market. Every other EU and Single Market member accepts freedom of movement : there is no opt out of this on offer to any country,

Harika

On LBC they said that until now Boris Johnson has held still, does he resign, Theresa May will be challenged and might be down before Trumps visit on Thursday.

judeboy101

lawred2 wrote: »

Surely freedom of movement can not end in any situation short of hard Brexit!

Fom can be fudged, just look at how EU fudged it post Swiss referendum.

Beechwoodspark

Harika wrote: »

On LBC they said that until now Boris Johnson has held still, does he resign, Theresa May will be challenged and might be down before Trumps visit on Thursday.

Trump might even be tempted to meddle. Farage probably imploring him to.

judeboy101

Harika wrote: »

On LBC they said that until now Boris Johnson has held still, does he resign, Theresa May will be challenged and might be down before Trumps visit on Thursday.

He's at a Baltic conference in London today he has a scheduled press con at 5ish, we will know then.

Harika

judeboy101 wrote: »

He's at a Baltic conference in London today he has a scheduled press con at 5ish, we will know then.

Sun is pushing him already but he was also told that if he doesn't back TM he might be out for any future leadership of the party.

LeinsterDub

judeboy101 wrote: »

Fom can be fudged, just look at how EU fudged it post Swiss referendum.

I'm no expert in Swiss politics but it was my understanding that it was the Swiss who did the fudging. They still have FOM but no can give priority to Swiss nationals.

Last Friday, the Swiss parliament adopted a bill that gives priority to Swiss-based job seekers - Swiss nationals and foreigners registered in Swiss job agencies - but which avoids quotas on EU citizens

https://euobserver.com/justice/136398