Brexit discussion thread IV

judeboy101

If these leaks are correct, its sh1t or get of the can time for jrm.

An Ciarraioch

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1014896671946432513

LeinsterDub

Leroy42 wrote: »

Well turns out there was a reason why they kept it hidden.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/05/david-davis-says-mays-new-brexit-customs-plan-is-unworkable

So she flies over to meet Merkle to get her support, and whilst she is gone the guy who actual job it is to the the bloody thing is saying that the plan is unworkable.

So DD, what is your great plan then?

He's not wrong though. That's part max fac and has been rejected

An Ciarraioch

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1014927902075510784

Imreoir2

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1014927902075510784

Is the UK government going to fall because it can't agree a deal that would be rejected by the EU anyway?

Rhineshark

I loathe Boris Johnson, he's about second/third on the list of modern non-actively-homicidal politicians I despise (under Trump, about level with JRM and Farage).


But fine, take the reins, Johnson. They'll strangle you too and you'll bloody deserve it.


I don't think he can make it too much worse as this point. Even if he puffs his chest out and demands cliff-edge Brexit, at least we all know where we stand and can get on with it.

flatty

Exactly. If teresa may had any backbone jrm, bobo and Davis would have been plotting from the back benches. If she is clever enough to tie her own shoelaces, she must have some sort of plan. The galling thing is that even the softest of soft brexits will leave the UK worse off. Not having a second referendum once a deal is agreed is a perversion of democracy in my opinion.

Imreoir2

Just to substantiate the fears of food shortages in the Uk in the event of a no-deal Brexit, a major British retail industry body, the British Retail Consortium, has warned of food rotting at ports in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

It is time for a reality check on the damaging consequences for millions of UK consumers and tens of thousands of EU-based producers if we fail to reach an agreement in the Brexit negotiations that protects the free flow of goods between the EU and the UK from 29 March 2019.

50% of Britain’s food is imported, and of that 60% comes from the EU-27. In other words, nearly one third of the food eaten by 65m people in the UK comes from EU farms and factories. These well-established, just in time, supply chains are vital for providing choice and value to UK consumers, as well as protecting the livelihoods of tens of thousands of farmers and food producers in the EU.

To bring in a third of the food that the country eats requires a vast, complex and interconnected supply chain. To give a sense of the scale, according to the latest UK government figures, in 2016 3.6 million containers from the EU passed through UK ports, just under 10,000 per day. This equates to over 50,000 tonnes per day of food passing through our ports. These goods can currently enter the UK with minimal delay, which allows for truly frictionless trade. This means that salad leaves, for example, can be loaded onto lorries in Spain on a Monday, delivered to stores in the UK on a Thursday, and still have 5 days’ shelf life.

But this supply chain is fragile. Failure to reach a deal – the cliff edge scenario – will mean new border controls and multiple ‘non-tariff barriers’, through regulatory checks, that will create delays, waste and failed deliveries.

The consequences of this will be dramatic for UK consumers. It is likely that we will see food rotting at ports, reducing the choice and quality of what is available to consumers.

The latest BRC analysis finds that food and beverage products would face an average increase in the cost of importing from the EU of up to 29% from non-tariff barriers alone, under a no deal scenario. Much of these increases will end up passed to consumers in higher prices. And the impact on SME retailers in the UK will be devastating. Our figures estimate that more than 12,500 small retail businesses will be at high risk of going bust in the event of no deal.

The consequences for EU producers and the countries from which they export will be also be severe. EU-27 businesses face losing £21 billion of agri-food exports to the UK.

Failure to achieve a smooth transition will create a lose-lose scenario for UK consumers and EU producers alike. Time is running out as we are fast approaching the point where the food supply chain can prepare for a no-deal Brexit at all, as EU farmers will want to know who their customers will be before planting their crops or raising their animals this autumn, for delivery to UK consumers next spring.

We must avoid the cliff edge on 29 March 2019 at all costs, so we call on the UK government to focus on proposing a workable solution to the backstop that gets the Withdrawal Agreement over the line and preserves frictionless trade during the transition period, and on the EU to be flexible and creative in the negotiations and recognise what is at stake for exports to the UK.

https://brc.org.uk/media/281307/brc-letter-to-pm-m-barnier-final.pdf

flutered

trellheim wrote: »

Katy Adler reporting it. Looks like Merkel sticking to the Commission to sort it out.

the uk has been told this numerous times, yet they still try the divide and conquer stunt, because that is seememly all they know, as they have not done any negiotiating since they joined the eec

flutered

Nody wrote: »

Is that even possible at this stage? I mean no one can seriously today think May is actually in charge of anything; rather she's simply sprinting between camps with proposals to see if they are willing to agree or not. At this stage an Octopus would have shown more spine than what she's done to date...

Then again it's simply now expected if we consider UK politics. Remember how Davis was going to strike a deal with Germany? And I'm willing to bet that UK has done exactly nothing about Gibraltar as well (which as the strongest pro EU part of UK will get the worst treatment once Spain puts up the hard border and the companies based there can't sell into EU) and Gibraltar may actually be Spanish before NI becomes Irish (their shock will be felt way faster than the rest of UK). At this stage I've gone past the disbelief, the rage and the sheer shock of their failure as politicians and simply sit back and watch the slow motion crash. There is no plan, there is no leadership, there is no brilliant hidden strategy behind it all; it's simply sheer and utter incompetence across the board on the UK side. This is one of the easiest negotiations they can do with a partner who very much want to make a deal and has been up front with all the options on the table and they STILL fail to even get to the table to read the deals due to infighting...

you left out the maldives which exports 90% of its produce to spain

Thargor

Look at the pathetic amount of likes and retweets on the BBC and CH4 reporters tweets, we give more of a sh1t about this here on Boards than their entire country does, they have been completely brainwashed by their Godawful media.

An Ciarraioch

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1014940223422259210

Sounds rather implausible, but if talks collapse, could prove an interim solution (12 months max).

sink

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1014940223422259210

Sounds rather implausible, but if talks collapse, could prove an interim solution (12 months max).

I've been saying this for months. To paraphrase ACD. When you eliminate all that is impossible, whatever remains no matter how implausible must be reality.

The the Brextremist leaders have committed themselves to deeply to a hard Brexit that is politically fatal (read impossible) for them to backtrack. They have no support left in the centre, all their support comes from the europhobic right wing and should they betray them they will be dropped like a hot rock. So they absolutely cannot compromise, no more than a drowning man can compromise as he pulls his would be rescuer under with him.

The EU will not compromise. It's absolute priority is protect the integrity of the single market. A compromised single market would jeopardise the EU itself. It will not change it's internal rules for the benefit of a third party. Maintaining low trade barriers to the UK market is more of a preference than essential.

The DUP will not compromise. Any further detachment of Northern Ireland from Britain damages their absolute priority of maintaining the union. They will burn their own house to the ground before they will consider any separation that risks the union.

With all that considered the political arithmetic leaves May with only two choices. 1. Do nothing and crash out by default. 2. Cobble together whatever coalition she can to pass a SM/CU bill and that means reaching across the aisle and seeking support from the opposition.

The only other possibility is not a choice for Theresa May, that being the collapse of her government and her resignation. It's hard to know how that would play out. The EU may be willing to extend the negotiations to allow time for a new government to form, but it might also see the removal of the UK before European Parliament Elections in 2019 and the new budget in 2020 as preferable.

An Ciarraioch

Fox has apparently been assured by May that the UK will have an independent trade policy after Brexit.

Kermit.de.frog

In tomorrow's London Times

Theresa May tells Brexiteers there can be no free trade deals with America


That's gonna rile a few feathers!

KingNerolives

What if may pulls off a worldie and we are all left red faced for having doubted her iron will resilience?

Inquitus

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Fox has apparently been assured by May that the UK will have an independent trade policy after Brexit.

The only way that will happen is with a cliff edge Brexit, which I am beginning to think Parliament will not allow. Cake and Unicorns with warnings aside.

Enzokk

KingNerolives wrote: »

What if may pulls off a worldie and we are all left red faced for having doubted her iron will resilience?

What outcome would leave us blushing? What do you think it would take to make us respect her?

Kermit.de.frog

What was it Theresa May use to say?


Strong and stable?


She is going through all this for a plan that will be dead on arrival in Brussels.

Trasna1

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Is the UK government going to fall because it can't agree a deal that would be rejected by the EU anyway?

If the UK government survives the next few days it will remain in place and deliver a soft Brexit.

However if the brexiteers really believe in the cause then the government will collapse over the weekend. I guess we will see the colour of their money now.

ambro25

JP Morgan has asked some employees to leave London before year end, according to a memo leaked to Bloomberg

Le mémo interne que s’est procuré Bloomberg rend un peu plus tangible les projets de relocalisation des équipes du géant bancaire JPMorgan Chase & Co., en prévision du Brexit. L’institution qui emploie quelque 10.000 personnes à Londres a demandé à plusieurs dizaines de ses employés de se préparer à une relocalisation au sein de l’Union européenne, et ce avant que le Royaume-Uni ne sorte de l’espace commun. Soit d’ici fin mars 2019.

Whatever comes out of today’s session at Chequers, it’s already far too late for whole swathes of U.K.-based sociology-economic ‘engines’.

According to the Article, these in particular are off to Paris, Madrid and Milan.

Nody

Trasna1 wrote: »

If the UK government survives the next few days it will remain in place and deliver a soft Brexit.

However if the brexiteers really believe in the cause then the government will collapse over the weekend. I guess we will see the colour of their money now.

Well apparently few if any Brexiteers are going to resign over it; the reason? EU will block the suggestion for them and they want to be around for the next government.

Several government whips was last night said to be on three verge of resignation over their fury at the PM’s plan.

But allies of Boris Johnson last night predicted he won’t resign as Foreign Secretary even if he loses the colossal fight today.

Boris is thought to have been persuaded that since the EU are likely to shoot down Mrs May’s plan, it is worth him staying on to influence the next government fight over the shape of Brexit, likely to arrive by the Autumn.

From The Sun and seeing what a coward Boris has been on any actual confrontation (see Heathrow issue for example) I'm not surprised he's not resigning.

VinLieger

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

In tomorrow's London Times

Theresa May tells Brexiteers there can be no free trade deals with America


That's gonna rile a few feathers!

The UK would lose so much of its identity with a US free trade deal. The set of demands would be obscene especially with the current administration.

Beechwoodspark

Fraser Nelson on RTÉ saying that may is confident she has numbers to back the plan today and if it comes to it, would be ok with resignations.

Boris, Gove etc- it’s make or break time

McGiver

FT claiming a German minister says EU being inflexible in negotiations. Which isn't true. So even FT has to follow the line "oh it's the EU's fault" and make thinly veiled attacks on the EU.

https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1014971147400736769?s=09

First Up

ambro25 wrote: »

JP Morgan has asked some employees to leave London before year end, according to a memo leaked to Bloomberg

Le mémo interne que s’est procuré Bloomberg rend un peu plus tangible les projets de relocalisation des équipes du géant bancaire JPMorgan Chase & Co., en prévision du Brexit. L’institution qui emploie quelque 10.000 personnes à Londres a demandé à plusieurs dizaines de ses employés de se préparer à une relocalisation au sein de l’Union européenne, et ce avant que le Royaume-Uni ne sorte de l’espace commun. Soit d’ici fin mars 2019.

Whatever comes out of today’s session at Chequers, it’s already far too late for whole swathes of U.K.-based sociology-economic ‘engines’.

According to the Article, these in particular are off to Paris, Madrid and Milan.

Only a handful though.

judeboy101

If that little weasel Gove backs her, she will be able to sell it. Bobo and Davis haven't the clout he seems to wield.

ambro25

First Up wrote: »

Only a handful though.

Numbers of relocated City bankers are irrelevant, a point which most Leavers continually fail to grasp (likewise the fact that Brexit has yet to actually happen).

Their professional activity and combined contributions to the national economy and no.11’s coffers, very much are.

Soft, hard or boiled Brexit, or even no Brexit at all, those tens of relocated bankers -and all the other tens here and hundreds there- represent £Millions upon £Millions’ worth of actual, measurable net loss to the local economy and the Exchequer...and they’re not coming back anytime soon.

Leroy42

Could the EU live with the (leaked still) proposals. Alignment on regulations on goods and Agri means that there would be no hard border, not only in NI but across the whole of the UK. That is a really big win for the EU, basically the status quo.

The possibility is always there for them to move away from alignment as time passes, but with that would come hard borders and nobody is going to want that. And there is nothing to stop any country leaving so its not really much different. From a strictkly Irish POV, putting aside all the other factors, isn't this exactly what we were looking for?

Services seems to be a sticking point. The UK want to diverge and with services being intertwined with goods in many cases this could be a serious competitive advantage to the UK. But the question needs to be whether it is worth the risk of a hard Brexit rather than going for a deal?

The noises coming out of the EU would seem to suggest (and I saw a thread on Macron saying that the EU simply cannot give in to anything as it would only increase the likely breakup of the EU) that they are willing to stick to their guns and its either everything or nothing. But that is easier to say when the UK had nothing on the table.

CelticRambler

Leroy42 wrote: »

Could the EU live with the (leaked still) proposals. Alignment on regulations on goods and Agri means that there would be no hard border, not only in NI but across the whole of the UK. That is a really big win for the EU, basically the status quo.

Hmm, yeah-but ... is it a status the EU wants to keep "quo" ? As it is, the Brexiteers are bragging about the 5-minute clearance times for freight coming in from China, which we know is/was because the UK wasn't complying with the existing rules.



Now they're (supposedly) saying that they'll voluntarily remain aligned with our rules, and will agree to be punished if they don't, even though they're not obliged to like they were when they broke the rules before. As a gesture of good faith, they'll offer us a technological solution that definitely won't be ready in the the foreseeable future, but if we could just trust them, it'll all work out in the end ...



Well, we'll know by midnight, I suppose. :cool: