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The Dilemma of the Undecideds in the abortion referendum

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    #542
    antiskeptic
    Registered Users Posts: 9,555 ✭✭✭antiskeptic


    oscarBravo wrote: »
    The country doesn't legislate. The Oireachtas legislates.

    ...on behalf of the people.


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    #543
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    antiskeptic wrote: »
    ...on behalf of the people.

    Yes, precisely what will happen in this case if Yes wins.


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    #544
    antiskeptic
    Registered Users Posts: 9,555 ✭✭✭antiskeptic


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    Yes, precisely what will happen in this case if Yes wins.

    Technically any majority is the countries view. Which ought the politicians seek for by way of the choice offered

    60/40

    80/20


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    #545
    Hitman3000
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,596 ✭✭✭Hitman3000


    antiskeptic wrote:
    Not if that major shindig in the Phoenix Park, organized by No, has anything to do with it.


    They're going to ply the students with free beer from 7 to 10?


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    #546
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    antiskeptic wrote: »
    Which ought the politicians seek for by way of the choice offered

    60/40

    80/20

    Neither - the politicians should offer the best solution, and let the people approve or not.

    Trying to game the referendum to make it pass gives us nonsense like the 5 year condition in the Constitution for divorce, which requires us to have another referendum to delete it later.


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    #547
    antiskeptic
    Registered Users Posts: 9,555 ✭✭✭antiskeptic


    Hitman3000 wrote: »
    They're going to ply the students with free beer from 7 to 10?


    Fake news - sorry


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    #548
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    Hitman3000 wrote: »
    They're going to ply the students with free beer from 7 to 10?

    I think the idea is that if the students are in the Park at all today, they are not at home voting in Ballydehob.


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    #549
    antiskeptic
    Registered Users Posts: 9,555 ✭✭✭antiskeptic


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    Neither - the politicians should offer the best solution, and let the people approve or not.

    Lets suppose a proposition was posed for hard cases and that attracted an 80/20 result yes. And the current attracts 60/40 yes.

    Would you find the former a better result?

    Thought experiment


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    #550
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users Posts: 16,079 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    blanch152 wrote: »

    If the referendum is passed, there is the possibility of the Government's legislative proposals being defeated by a combination of SF, FF, rural Independents and FG rebels and a more restrictive regime being put in place. That is by far the best chance of you getting what you seek, so the only rational logical decision for you is to vote YES.

    Only in the sense that there is a 'possibility' Dublin won't win the Leinster Football Championship this year. For the legislation to go down would necessitate one of two extremely unlikely developments: Sin Fein not supporting it or the vast majority of (supposedly) undecided Fine Gael TDs voting against...


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    #551
    cournioni
    Moderators, Regional North East Moderators Posts: 12,739 Mod ✭✭✭✭cournioni


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    Not sure why that took any thought - abortion without restriction up to 12 weeks has been the proposal since before the referendum was even announced.

    I am pleased with this, since it sidestepped most of the No campaigns nonsense completely. They seem to have been preparing for a "hard cases" referendum, and were caught on the hop by the straightforward nature of the citizen's assembly proposal.
    Clearly because there were other factors at play. Abortion without restriction is simply the dealbreaker that could not be overlooked in the end.


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    #552
    Hitman3000
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,596 ✭✭✭Hitman3000


    Zubeneschamali wrote:
    I think the idea is that if the students are in the Park at all today, they are not at home voting in Ballydehob.


    Shows they have a contempt for young people. Large number of my son's college friends travelled home last night. I collected 3 of his friends myself.


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    #553
    antiskeptic
    Registered Users Posts: 9,555 ✭✭✭antiskeptic


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    Polling back as far as January said more people agreed with the 12 week proposal than disagreed.


    That merely reflects the need to chose between the current option.

    It doesn't reflect what would be the case in a difficult case only option


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    #554
    antiskeptic
    Registered Users Posts: 9,555 ✭✭✭antiskeptic


    Turns out the Phoenix Park thing is a fake news. I heard it from a friend .. who heard it from a friend.

    Apols to boards ( and No and Yes). Should have checked


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    #555
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    antiskeptic wrote: »
    Lets suppose a proposition was posed for hard cases and that attracted an 80/20 result yes. And the current attracts 60/40 yes.

    Would you find the former a better result?

    No, because the "hard cases" amendment would be another botch like the 8th, trying to capture chapters of legal nuance in a paragraph. Nobody would know what it even meant until people died and cases got to the Supreme Court.

    This is precisely the situation we are trying to claw our way out of after 35 years.


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    #556
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    cournioni wrote: »
    Clearly because there were other factors at play. Abortion without restriction is simply the dealbreaker that could not be overlooked in the end.

    But it was the headline proposal from the Citizens Assembly a year ago! The basis for the Referendum.

    Nobody sprang it on you at the last minute - if that is a deal breaker, there was no deal day 1.


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    #557
    cournioni
    Moderators, Regional North East Moderators Posts: 12,739 Mod ✭✭✭✭cournioni


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    But it was the headline proposal from the Citizens Assembly a year ago! The basis for the Referendum.

    Nobody sprang it on you at the last minute - if that is a deal breaker, there was no deal day 1.
    I’d prefer it if you didn’t pretend to speak for me. If you don’t mind. Thanks.


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    #558
    Hitman3000
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,596 ✭✭✭Hitman3000


    antiskeptic wrote:
    Turns out the Phoenix Park thing is a fake news. I heard it from a friend .. who heard it from a friend.


    I'm shocked that someone made up stuff.


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    #559
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users Posts: 16,079 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    cournioni wrote: »
    Made my decision to vote No after a lot of thought. Not ideal but I feel that there have to be other solutions to protecting the mothers health without threatening the life of other unborn by Repeal of the 8th.

    The key factor in my decision is that I absolutely disagree with Abortion on Demand. Not acceptable to deliberately kill inside or outside of the womb.

    If that is what you believe I find it hard to see how you were in any doubt about how to vote.


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    #560
    Nettle Soup
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,312 ✭✭✭Nettle Soup


    cournioni wrote: »
    I’d prefer it if you didn’t pretend to speak for me. If you don’t mind. Thanks.

    :confused::rolleyes:;)


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    #561
    cournioni
    Moderators, Regional North East Moderators Posts: 12,739 Mod ✭✭✭✭cournioni


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    If that is what you believe I find it hard to see how you were in any doubt about how to vote.
    Just assessing all of the options available. Not all of us have the time to look into these things intensely from day one.


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    #562
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,266 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    Only in the sense that there is a 'possibility' Dublin won't win the Leinster Football Championship this year. For the legislation to go down would necessitate one of two extremely unlikely developments: Sin Fein not supporting it or the vast majority of (supposedly) undecided Fine Gael TDs voting against...

    Sinn Fein do not support abortion on demand up to 12 weeks. They need an Ard Fheis to change that. If there is a vote in the Dail next week on the Government proposal, Sinn Fein would have to vote against.

    Have a look at the numbers, and some of these are only guesses based on stated views. In favour of the governments' proposal

    For: 42

    Solidarity: 6
    Labour Party: 7
    Green Party: 2
    Social Democrats: 2
    Independents for Change: 4
    Fianna Fail: 14
    Other Independents: 7

    Against: 65

    Sinn Fein: 23
    Fianna Fail: 30
    Other Independents: 12

    That leaves the 50 FG TDs. If 13 of them break ranks and vote against the proposal, it could be defeated.

    One of two things need to happen for the legislation to pass - a SF Ard Fheis to change their position or at least 37 FG TDs hold their nerve.


  • Options
    #563
    Nettle Soup
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,312 ✭✭✭Nettle Soup


    cournioni wrote: »
    Just assessing all of the options available. Not all of us have the time to look into these things intensely from day one.

    I don't think it's that complex given the wealth of information.

    The question today is whether you want to repeal the 8th amendment (article 40.3.3) and replace it with these 13 words: "Provision may be made by law for the regulation of termination of pregnancies.”

    The draft bill that the government have proposed should Yes win is also freely available and has been discussed at length.

    Here you go;
    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/what-would-replace-the-eighth-amendment-the-text-the-law-the-politics-1.3505902


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    #564
    .......
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,057 ✭✭✭.......


    This post has been deleted.


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    #565
    antiskeptic
    Registered Users Posts: 9,555 ✭✭✭antiskeptic


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    No, because the "hard cases" amendment would be another botch like the 8th, trying to capture chapters of legal nuance in a paragraph. Nobody would know what it even meant until people died and cases got to the Supreme Court.

    This is precisely the situation we are trying to claw our way out of after 35 years.


    So, in turning down an 80/20 yes in favour of a 60/40 yes you are trusting women and men?


  • Options
    #566
    cournioni
    Moderators, Regional North East Moderators Posts: 12,739 Mod ✭✭✭✭cournioni


    Nettle Soup wrote: »
    I don't think it's that complex given the wealth of information.

    The question today is whether you want to repeal the 8th amendment (article 40.3.3) and replace it with these 13 words: "Provision may be made by law for the regulation of termination of pregnancies.”

    The draft bill that the government have proposed should Yes win is also freely available and has been discussed at length.

    Here you go;
    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/what-would-replace-the-eighth-amendment-the-text-the-law-the-politics-1.3505902
    Very good.

    Like I said, when I had time, I took my time, assessed all of the information and options and made my decision. It doesn’t matter when I or anybody else did it. You’re making an utterly pointless argument out of nothing.

    Main point is that the prospect of Abortion on Demand was the dealbreaker for me.


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    #567
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users Posts: 16,079 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    blanch152 wrote: »
    Sinn Fein do not support abortion on demand up to 12 weeks. They need an Ard Fheis to change that. If there is a vote in the Dail next week on the Government proposal, Sinn Fein would have to vote against.

    Have a look at the numbers, and some of these are only guesses based on stated views. In favour of the governments' proposal

    For: 42

    Solidarity: 6
    Labour Party: 7
    Green Party: 2
    Social Democrats: 2
    Independents for Change: 4
    Fianna Fail: 14
    Other Independents: 7

    Against: 65

    Sinn Fein: 23
    Fianna Fail: 30
    Other Independents: 12

    That leaves the 50 FG TDs. If 13 of them break ranks and vote against the proposal, it could be defeated.

    One of two things need to happen for the legislation to pass - a SF Ard Fheis to change their position or at least 37 FG TDs hold their nerve.

    SF have brought their Ard Fheis forward to next month to settle policy on the 12-week legislation. Given the centralisation of power in the party and the prominent role Mary Lou has taken in the yes campaign, how likely is any motion supporting that legislation to be defeated? Can you imagine the shower of manure that would rain down on SF heads from all shades of the left if they were responsible for the defeat of the legislation in the Dail, given that Varadkar, Martin, Coveney etc. are supporting it?

    As far as the FG waverers go, well I'll refer you what happened when feet were held to the fire over POLDPA. Even some of the most loudly pro-life deputies like John O'Mahony and James Bannon trooped into the Ta lobby when threatened with expulsion. Okay the threat this time will instead be an ongoing legal and political crisis over the issue, which is not as immediate. But how likely is any TD who hasn't declared a position on the legislation up to now to stand up and defy the party leadership if the referendum is passed?


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    #568
    .......
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,057 ✭✭✭.......


    This post has been deleted.


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    #569
    Nettle Soup
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,312 ✭✭✭Nettle Soup


    ....... wrote: »
    This post has been deleted.

    Obviously he did all his research but the No soundbyte (abortion on demand for everyone) worked a treat :)


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    #570
    cournioni
    Moderators, Regional North East Moderators Posts: 12,739 Mod ✭✭✭✭cournioni


    ....... wrote: »
    I find this a curious viewpoint.

    We already have abortion on demand, subject to the UKs abortion regime, which is more liberal than anything we have proposed.

    Hard to understand why it would be a dealbreaker under the circumstances unless the deal being broken is simply NIMBYism.
    Which I disagree with also, but we are not voting on 13 and 14, therefore it is pointless bringing the UK into what I decide to vote for in Ireland.


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    #571
    ArthurDayne
    Registered Users Posts: 1,631 ✭✭✭ArthurDayne


    cournioni wrote: »
    Very good.

    Like I said, when I had time, I took my time, assessed all of the information and options and made my decision. It doesn’t matter when I or anybody else did it. You’re making an utterly pointless argument out of nothing.

    Main point is that the prospect of Abortion on Demand was the dealbreaker for me.

    Abortion on demand is already happening via travelling abroad -- such travel being protected by the Constitutional article that people are voting on today.

    All you are doing by voting No is voting to retain a constitutional article which in one line says it acknowledges the right to life of the unborn, but in the very next line effectively constitutionally protects citizens who seek information on services to 'kill their baby' and travel abroad to perform said 'killing'.

    By voting No -- you are not stopping abortion on demand. You are only preventing this country from making legislation which (a) reflects the current reality whether you accept it or not and (b) make laws which will provide a more humane framework for rape victims, women carrying a foetus with a fatal abnormality, and other horrific circumstances.

    Irish people are having abortions every single day -- and the Constitution is banning them in one line but letting the Brits do it for us in another. That is the reality. By voting no, you are voting to impose your own beliefs on the rest of us -- with your head firmly in the sand as to what is happening in this country.


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