The Dilemma of the Undecideds in the abortion referendum

Loafing Oaf

antiskeptic wrote: »

I


Wonder will this lead to a toning down of the legislation - given the split view on it.
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Wonder no more. They won't. Or not in any substantial way...

drunkmonkey

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Wonder no more. They won't. Or not in any substantial way...

Your forgetting all the pro lifers that voted yes. You can expect it to change once the voting starts. I don't think the yes vote was an endorsement for abortion on demand, the exit polls reflect that. It's not what the majority of women want.

Zubeneschamali

antiskeptic wrote: »

I gather from someone fb-ing on the RTE poll, that if combining No and Yes views, there was 72% in favour of legislating for the hard cases.

And only 52% in favour of legislation on abortion on demand.

That was just an exit poll.


The Government published heads of a bill with 12 weeks unrestricted abortion, and 66% of the country voted Yes on the understanding that that was what they were getting. The No campaign jumped up and down shouting that that is what we were getting if we voted yes.


They thought that the old scary words "abortion on demand" would stop people voting Yes. It didn't.


So, exactly as the No side said, the Government will bring in the 12 weeks legislation.

fergus1001

antiskeptic wrote:

And only 52% in favour of legislation on abortion on demand.

only a majority ?! oh my god

splinter65

fergus1001 wrote: »

only a majority ?! oh my god

That’s 48% of those who voted who don’t want abortion on demand. Quite a few. Some thinking to be done by the legislators, I’m sure you’ll agree.
How all this will pan out with the current state of the healthcare system especially the fact that a good number of GPs will be opting out (including my own, and his wife, 2 seperate huge practices) will certainly be interesting.

LuckyLloyd

52% in the exit poll is still a majority. Proceed.

splinter65

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

52% in the exit poll is still a majority. Proceed.

Yes it is of course and well done to the yes campaign ,but 48% is still a lot of voters who need to be pleased, and certainly cannot be ignored.
Because that’s politics.

LuckyLloyd

splinter65 wrote: »

Yes it is of course and well done to the yes campaign ,but 48% is still a lot of voters who need to be pleased, and certainly cannot be ignored.
Because that’s politics.

We proceeded with divorce on a narrower margin. And moreover, as noted, that's exit polling data. Draft legislation has been endorsed by a 2:1 margin. I would suggest the exit polling data makes it easier for the government to look for quick implementation if anything - as it backs up the cross the board nature of support reflected in the final result.

splinter65

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

We proceeded with divorce on a narrower margin. And moreover, as noted, that's exit polling data. Draft legislation has been endorsed by a 2:1 margin. I would suggest the exit polling data makes it easier for the government to look for quick implementation if anything - as it backs up the cross the board nature of support reflected in the final result.

A lot of proponents of divorce are still very unhappy with the very restrictive nature of divorce in Ireland, the government had to legislate to reflect the narrowness of the vote then, and have shied away from relaxing the conditions in the intervening years (must be nearly 20?), what makes you think they won’t have to adopt a softly softly approach in this case?

pitifulgod

splinter65 wrote: »

Yes it is of course and well done to the yes campaign ,but 48% is still a lot of voters who need to be pleased, and certainly cannot be ignored.
Because that’s politics.

In this instance, you are clutching at straws. The legislation is expected to get usual debates etc but it will go through in much the same form as proposed.

Loafing Oaf

splinter65 wrote: »

That’s 48% of those who voted who don’t want abortion on demand. Quite a few. Some thinking to be done by the legislators, I’m sure you’ll agree.

No further thinking required. Our legislators will proceed to pass the 12-week legislation, as they have an unimpeachable mandate to do.

splinter65

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

No further thinking required. Our legislators will proceed to pass the 12-week legislation, as they have an unimpeachable mandate to do.

Your Fr Ted meme clinched your well thought out response perfectly, when in doubt, introduce Fr Ted.
I don’t think Michael Martin will agree with you this morning, but there you go....

Loafing Oaf

splinter65 wrote: »

I don’t think Michael Martin will agree with you this morning, but there you go....

Why shouldn't he? It was two of his TDs who came up with the 12-week unrestricted proposal in the first place. If anything he will be surprised that the percentage supporting that proposal is as high as it is. His presumption will be that the no-voting FF supporters, pragmatists that they are, will accept a fait accompli and will have largely forgotten about the whole thing by the time the next election rolls around. Who else are they going to vote for anyway?

Ash.J.Williams

splinter65 wrote: »

Yes it is of course and well done to the yes campaign ,but 48% is still a lot of voters who need to be pleased, and certainly cannot be ignored.
Because that’s politics.

In democracy the 48% of an unofficial poll do not exist and are technically dead.

splinter65

Ash.J.Williams wrote: »

In democracy the 48% of an unofficial poll do not exist and are technically dead.

In politics 48% is a huge amount of votes and I think you’ll soon find that the legislation put forward will reflect that.

ArmaniJeanss

splinter65 wrote: »

In politics 48% is a huge amount of votes and I think you’ll soon find that the legislation put forward will reflect that.

In a world where No had won on a 52/48 margin, what sort of leeway would the victors be offering I wonder. Abortion up to 6 weeks maybe? Perhaps a coin-toss for rape victims beyond that?
Or dare I suggest it would have been seen as a definitive and resounding vote to keep the status quo.

Loafing Oaf

splinter65 wrote: »

In politics 48% is a huge amount of votes and I think you’ll soon find that the legislation put forward will reflect that.

Just to be clear here, it's quite possible there will be some tinkering round the edges of the legislation as a token gesture to the pro-lifers, beefed-up right to conscious objection or such. But as for rolling back the 12-weeks unrestricted element, no chance.

Word to the wise here, liberals love it when you guys engage in this kind of delusional 'thinking'. It means that they can get on with implementing their agenda while you guys sit around bigging yourselves up on the internet. Same goes for any suggestion there won't be enough GPs to implement the proposals...

pitifulgod

splinter65 wrote: »

In politics 48% is a huge amount of votes and I think you’ll soon find that the legislation put forward will reflect that.

David Quinn even said that he expects the legislation to get through pretty unopposed given the overall result.

eire4

pitifulgod wrote: »

David Quinn even said that he expects the legislation to get through pretty unopposed given the overall result.

You would think so. The landslide nature of the yes vote should make this pretty straight forward.

Loafing Oaf

splinter65 wrote: »

Yes it is of course and well done to the yes campaign ,but 48% is still a lot of voters who need to be pleased, and certainly cannot be ignored.
Because that’s politics.

Are you still confident Fianna Fail will be looking to water down the legislation?

Martin prevents FF TDs and senators tabling abortion law amendments
Leader says any amendments must go through health spokesman

A number have argued that abortion in cases of rape, incest and fatal foetal abnormalities should be allowed but say the 12 weeks proposal is a step too far.

By restricting such TDs and senators from tabling amendments, Mr Martin has effectively limited their options to voting for, against or abstaining on the legislation.

Zubeneschamali

The most I can see is a few token amendments from Independents, quickly voted down.

blanch152

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The most I can see is a few token amendments from Independents, quickly voted down.

Mattie McGrath and Ronan Mullen will table 100 amendments between them, and that is their democratic entitlement.

Zubeneschamali

blanch152 wrote: »

Mattie McGrath and Ronan Mullen will table 100 amendments between them, and that is their democratic entitlement.

There would be no point. A few amendments voted down to register a protest and get their names in the News, then quietly vote No.

PopePalpatine

Just putting my pedantic hat on, there is some point in it, how else could filibustering become a thing?

GreeBo

PopePalpatine wrote: »

Just putting my pedantic hat on, there is some point in it, how else could filibustering become a thing?

Does the speaking time for TD's not negate the efficacy of filibustering in the Dail?