All-New United Ireland Thread

An Ciarraioch · 16-05-2018 1:45pm #1

Between Brexit and the current Stormont stand-off, discussion concerning a united Ireland has grown in recent years, and the oncreased likelihood of the election of an SF First Minister in future Stormont elections will only intensify such a debate. So what issues need to be considered?

1. What would the cost of unification be and would the EU subside the adjustment?
2. Would a new Ireland require changes to the national flag and anthem?
3. Should parties in the Republic publish policy papers to prepare for a future referendum?
4. Would unionists be entitled to dual citizenship, and would the question of the Commonwealth re-emerge in that context?
5. Would the national government remain a unitary state, or would a federal government with regional assemblies emerge?
6. Would Southern politicians campaign in an NI referendum, and how can Alliance voters and liberal Protestants be persuaded to vote for unity?

Fr Tod Umptious · 16-05-2018 6:51pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Between Brexit and the current Stormont stand-off, discussion concerning a united Ireland has grown in recent years, and the oncreased likelihood of the election of an SF First Minister in future Stormont elections will only intensify such a debate. So what issues need to be considered?

1. What would the cost of unification be and would the EU subside the adjustment?
2. Would a new Ireland require changes to the national flag and anthem?
3. Should parties in the Republic publish policy papers to prepare for a future referendum?
4. Would unionists be entitled to dual citizenship, and would the question of the Commonwealth re-emerge in that context?
5. Would the national government remain a unitary state, or would a federal government with regional assemblies emerge?
6. Would Southern politicians campaign in an NI referendum, and how can Alliance voters and liberal Protestants be persuaded to vote for unity?

1. Costs would be the current UK government spend on NI plus a lot lot more. Not sure about EU funding, did they help fund German reunification ?

2. probably, if you want to extend a olive branch to those from NI that are against to move, to not do so would be disengenious.

3. Parties should prepare policy papers to set out how a transition to a United Ireland would be managed and how much it would cost.

4. Yes people born in NI before unification should be entitled to dual citizenship, and I'd even extend that to the grandchildren of people born in NI.

5. In the short to medium term some sort of NI assembly should exist, if just to manage the transition alone.

6. Yes southern politicians should campaign and be able to explain to "Alliance and liberal protestant" why a UI would be in thier interest.

Jim2007 · 16-05-2018 7:40pm

You left out one:

- Would Irish people be willing to vote for United Ireland, that would see Irish soldiers being sent home in body bags from NI, because that will be a reality that will have to be addressed.

blanch152 · 16-05-2018 7:54pm

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

1. Costs would be the current UK government spend on NI plus a lot lot more. Not sure about EU funding, did they help fund German reunification ?

2. probably, if you want to extend a olive branch to those from NI that are against to move, to not do so would be disengenious.

3. Parties should prepare policy papers to set out how a transition to a United Ireland would be managed and how much it would cost.

4. Yes people born in NI before unification should be entitled to dual citizenship, and I'd even extend that to the grandchildren of people born in NI.

5. In the short to medium term some sort of NI assembly should exist, if just to manage the transition alone.

6. Yes southern politicians should campaign and be able to explain to "Alliance and liberal protestant" why a UI would be in thier interest.

In terms of your answer to question 4, why should future people born in Northern Ireland be forced to give up their aspiration to be British and have a British passport?

An Ciarraioch · 16-05-2018 7:58pm

blanch152 wrote: »

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

1. Costs would be the current UK government spend on NI plus a lot lot more. Not sure about EU funding, did they help fund German reunification ?

2. probably, if you want to extend a olive branch to those from NI that are against to move, to not do so would be disengenious.

3. Parties should prepare policy papers to set out how a transition to a United Ireland would be managed and how much it would cost.

4. Yes people born in NI before unification should be entitled to dual citizenship, and I'd even extend that to the grandchildren of people born in NI.

5. In the short to medium term some sort of NI assembly should exist, if just to manage the transition alone.

6. Yes southern politicians should campaign and be able to explain to "Alliance and liberal protestant" why a UI would be in thier interest.

In terms of your answer to question 4, why should future people born in Northern Ireland be forced to give up their aspiration to be British and have a British passport?

Indeed, I'd presume that it would be permanently guaranteed under the GFA, but just wanted that clarified?

blanch152 · 16-05-2018 8:30pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Indeed, I'd presume that it would be permanently guaranteed under the GFA, but just wanted that clarified?

I would also assume that it would be open to the people of Northern Ireland to change their mind at a later date and rejoin the UK.

James Brown · 16-05-2018 8:43pm

blanch152 wrote: »

I would also assume that it would be open to the people of Northern Ireland to change their mind at a later date and rejoin the UK.

I would say not. Parts of Munster cannot secede from the state. Once united, it would need be an all Ireland will to join the UK. Unless we are suggesting all former British ruled provinces should have that opportunity? I'd say no.

An Ciarraioch · 16-05-2018 9:05pm

There's a little-known article in the Constitution (15.2.2), that suggests Dev may very well have had the North in mind back in 1937:

"Provision may however be made by law for the creation or recognition of subordinate legislatures and for the powers and functions of these legislatures".

Fr Tod Umptious · 16-05-2018 9:06pm

blanch152 wrote: »

In terms of your answer to question 4, why should future people born in Northern Ireland be forced to give up their aspiration to be British and have a British passport?

The grandchildren of people born before reunification would be able to be British citizens.

So if a child is born the minute before reunification their grandchildren would have the automatic right to a UK passport.
That grandchild might not be born for 70 or 80 years after reunification, that's a pretty long time.

Add to that that the UK probably allows citizenship if a parent is a citizen then the children of that grandchild could also be British citizens, and their children and their children etc etc

blanch152 · 16-05-2018 9:17pm

Matt Barrett wrote: »

I would say not. Parts of Munster cannot secede from the state. Once united, it would need be an all Ireland will to join the UK. Unless we are suggesting all former British ruled provinces should have that opportunity? I'd say no.

That would mean that under the GFA we keep having referenda until we get the right answer we want, but then we stop. I don't think so, that isn't bi-partisan, and a new agreement has to continue to recognise the legitimate aspirations of the unionist community to be part of the UK.

blanch152 · 16-05-2018 9:18pm

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

The grandchildren of people born before reunification would be able to be British citizens.

So if a child is born the minute before reunification their grandchildren would have the automatic right to a UK passport.
That grandchild might not be born for 70 or 80 years after reunification, that's a pretty long time.

Add to that that the UK probably allows citizenship if a parent is a citizen then the children of that grandchild could also be British citizens, and their children and their children etc etc

Do you not realise the implications of what you are saying - a united Ireland means the complete abolition of unionism as a legitimate political aspiration? Can you imagine the likely reaction?

An Ciarraioch · 16-05-2018 9:32pm

blanch152 wrote: »

Matt Barrett wrote: »

I would say not. Parts of Munster cannot secede from the state. Once united, it would need be an all Ireland will to join the UK. Unless we are suggesting all former British ruled provinces should have that opportunity? I'd say no.

That would mean that under the GFA we keep having referenda until we get the right answer we want, but then we stop. I don't think so, that isn't bi-partisan, and a new agreement has to continue to recognise the legitimate aspirations of the unionist community to be part of the UK.

In a new Dáil, however, whatever single Protestant party would emerge after unification could very well hold the balance of power after an election - they probably wouldn't want to enter a coalition, but they would have enough clout to secure their interests.

jm08 · 16-05-2018 9:33pm

Jim2007 wrote: »

You left out one:

- Would Irish people be willing to vote for United Ireland, that would see Irish soldiers being sent home in body bags from NI, because that will be a reality that will have to be addressed.

Why would Irish soldiers be sent into Northern Ireland? If peace keeping was required, it should be a UN Peacekeeping one.

jm08 · 16-05-2018 9:39pm

blanch152 wrote: »

That would mean that under the GFA we keep having referenda until we get the right answer we want, but then we stop. I don't think so, that isn't bi-partisan, and a new agreement has to continue to recognise the legitimate aspirations of the unionist community to be part of the UK.

Surely it should be the same as what happened when ROI became a Free State/Republic? Plenty of southern unionists still living in the Irish State then. I don't think there was any provision made for them.

Fr Tod Umptious · 16-05-2018 9:44pm

blanch152 wrote: »

Do you not realise the implications of what you are saying - a united Ireland means the complete abolition of unionism as a legitimate political aspiration? Can you imagine the likely reaction?

Don't get me wrong, I totally agree with unionism as a political aspiration and would personally be against reunification.

But if it ever came to pass that we had a united Ireland at some stage the idea of automatic dual citizenship based on location of birth would have phased out. Seventy or eighty odd years after unification would be a pretty long phasing out.

blanch152 · 16-05-2018 10:25pm

jm08 wrote: »

Surely it should be the same as what happened when ROI became a Free State/Republic? Plenty of southern unionists still living in the Irish State then. I don't think there was any provision made for them.

Why should it be the same as then?

Unlike then, we have signed an international agreement recognising the legitimate right of people in Northern Ireland to be British.

I mean, we do honour our international agreements?

jm08 · 16-05-2018 11:24pm

blanch152 wrote: »

Why should it be the same as then?

Unlike then, we have signed an international agreement recognising the legitimate right of people in Northern Ireland to be British.

I mean, we do honour our international agreements?

The border was imposed, without a referendum - unlike the potential removal of the border to reunite the island of Ireland.

Its up to the British State to recognise people born in the State of NI as British/offer them continued citizenship. The Irish State can't do that.

funkey_monkey · 16-05-2018 11:28pm

I live in NI. I feel very aggrieved that we are leaving the EU on the basis of a 52% / 48% result. I feel that in something as important as this for all citizens that a simple majority would not be sufficient.
Therefore, following this train of thought through, the referendum for a United Ireland would also require a similar margin.

Are all referendums a simple majority or is there any precedence for a required winning margin?

Avatar MIA · 16-05-2018 11:33pm

blanch152 wrote: »

I mean, we do honour our international agreements?

The right to British citizenship is within the gift of the UK government, not the Irish government. Stop trying to build windmills.

Avatar MIA · 17-05-2018 10:17am

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Therefore, following this train of thought through, the referendum for a United Ireland would also require a similar margin.

No, for a UI referendum it would be 50% +1 requirement. NI was a gerrymandered state and when a majority want to leave it will be so.

And not including 50% of unionists (which is an impossibility when you think about it), but a simple majority.

As for the fear of violence threat some bring up. The unionists were not terrorised out of the union. And what would loyalists be fighting for, for the UK to take NI back into the union - after a majority voted to leave? No UK government would have any truck with such a terrorist demand.

Owryan · 17-05-2018 10:19am

jm08 wrote: »

Why would Irish soldiers be sent into Northern Ireland? If peace keeping was required, it should be a UN Peacekeeping one.

One would assume that as part of a united Ireland then Irish troops would be stationed there as is the norm.

Fr Tod Umptious · 17-05-2018 10:50am

funkey_monkey wrote: »

I live in NI. I feel very aggrieved that we are leaving the EU on the basis of a 52% / 48% result. I feel that in something as important as this for all citizens that a simple majority would not be sufficient.
Therefore, following this train of thought through, the referendum for a United Ireland would also require a similar margin.

Are all referendums a simple majority or is there any precedence for a required winning margin?

I doubt a border poll would be called unless there was a clear majority in favour of reunification, having one if the othcome was in the balance would be very dangerous.

Brexit is a bad example, it was something Cameron threw out there to tray and keep UKIp from eating into the Tory base, no one ever expected it to happen

McMurphy · 17-05-2018 11:19am

Jim2007 wrote: »

You left out one:

- Would Irish people be willing to vote for United Ireland, that would see Irish soldiers being sent home in body bags from NI, because that will be a reality that will have to be addressed.

This makes no sense, and is.something I've posted about before.

On what basis would Irish soldiers be brought home in body bags?

This thing about loyalist paramilitaries isn't something I personally give much credence to.

What would the loyalist paramilitaries aims be?

Force the Irish govt to withdraw from a part of the island of Ireland? Don't see that one working out, or making sense.

Get the British Government to re-invade? Won't happen.

Fight for a serperate independent state? There goes the unionist ethos.

One would assume any hard-core unionist who wouldn't wish to be governed by anyone other than those within the union would most likely up stick and head across the water, where my guess is they would quickly realise that the citizens on the mainland view them as Irish people anyway.

Regardless who they swear allegiance or loyalty to.

Fr Tod Umptious · 17-05-2018 11:44am

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

This makes no sense, and is.something I've posted about before.

On what basis would Irish soldiers be brought home in body bags?

This thing about loyalist paramilitaries isn't something I personally give much credence to.

What would the loyalist paramilitaries aims be?

Force the Irish govt to withdraw from a part of the island of Ireland? Don't see that one working out, or making sense.

Get the British Government to re-invade? Won't happen.

Fight for a serperate independent state? There goes the unionist ethos.

One would assume any hard-core unionist who wouldn't wish to be governed by anyone other than those within the union would most likely up stick and head across the water, where my guess is they would quickly realise that the citizens on the mainland view them as Irish people anyway.

Regardless who they swear allegiance or loyalty to.

It's complete folly to suggest that unionists/loyalists would go meekly into a UI or just head to GB if it occured.

Look at Brexit, the DUP the biggest unionist party in NI were on the leave side even though it made no ecomonic sense for their core voters.

They supported leave just to show that they were more British than anyone else.

An Ciarraioch · 17-05-2018 12:22pm

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

funkey_monkey wrote: »

I live in NI. I feel very aggrieved that we are leaving the EU on the basis of a 52% / 48% result. I feel that in something as important as this for all citizens that a simple majority would not be sufficient.
Therefore, following this train of thought through, the referendum for a United Ireland would also require a similar margin.

Are all referendums a simple majority or is there any precedence for a required winning margin?

I doubt a border poll would be called unless there was a clear majority in favour of reunification, having one if the othcome was in the balance would be very dangerous.

Brexit is a bad example, it was something Cameron threw out there to tray and keep UKIp from eating into the Tory base, no one ever expected it to happen

An analysis of the latest Lucid Talk poll gives nationalists a 10% lead over unionists among under-44s, so while a poll wouldn't pass now, it could very well do so in 10 years time. In any case, the outline of the ultimate Brexit deal could influence how the 10% "others" would vote in such a referendum.

https://bangordub.wordpress.com/2018/03/05/managing-decline-the-lucid-talk-poll-feb-2018/

blanch152 · 17-05-2018 12:25pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

An analysis of the latest Lucid Talk poll gives nationalists a 10% lead over unionists among under-44s, so while a poll wouldn't pass now, it could very well do so in 10 years time. In any case, the outline of the ultimate Brexit deal could influence how the 10% "others" would vote in such a referendum.

https://bangordub.wordpress.com/2018/03/05/managing-decline-the-lucid-talk-poll-feb-2018/

I was told the very same thing 30 years ago. I'm still waiting.

A lot of those poll projections fail to comprehend that political views change as people age - they generally become more conservative.

It is the proportion of people at various ages that matter.

McMurphy · 17-05-2018 12:29pm

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

It's complete folly to suggest that unionists/loyalists would go meekly into a UI or just head to GB if it occured.

Look at Brexit, the DUP the biggest unionist party in NI were on the leave side even though it made no ecomonic sense for their core voters.

They supported leave just to show that they were more British than anyone else.

Which is why I envisage the most hard-core up and leaving for the mainland, rather than live in a united Ireland.

jm08 · 17-05-2018 12:34pm

Owryan wrote: »

One would assume that as part of a united Ireland then Irish troops would be stationed there as is the norm.

Would the existing policing not continue with the existing PSNI? I don't think you will see Irish Defence forces patrolling loyalist areas of Belfast. That would be incredible stupid. If there is need for Peacekeeping, get the UN to supply troops.

James Brown · 17-05-2018 3:54pm

blanch152 wrote: »

That would mean that under the GFA we keep having referenda until we get the right answer we want, but then we stop. I don't think so, that isn't bi-partisan, and a new agreement has to continue to recognise the legitimate aspirations of the unionist community to be part of the UK.

Upon a united Ireland, the GFA would no longer be relevant. The country united could vote to join the UK or commonwealth. It makes no sense to have every county acting alone on such matters.
The historic East Germany is no more. Therefore it won't be voting separately from West Germany on any issues or referenda.
So too will Northern Ireland in it's current form, no longer be.
You suggest after re-unification, after a united Ireland has come, some counties can vote to go off and join the Arab League if they so wish?

Like now, the people of Sligo will have as many democratic rights as the people of Derry. They can vote for whom ever, to colour the government any way they wish.

James Brown · 17-05-2018 4:03pm

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

It's complete folly to suggest that unionists/loyalists would go meekly into a UI or just head to GB if it occured.

Look at Brexit, the DUP the biggest unionist party in NI were on the leave side even though it made no ecomonic sense for their core voters.

They supported leave just to show that they were more British than anyone else.

I think they'll quite easily find their feet in a united Ireland. We have tribal politics in the south too. We've parish pump politics and cronyism. They could easily assimilate. They are self preserving if anything. It's not about being more British. If the British monarchy became Jewish, they'd switch allegiance to some other suited their goals soon enough. They are loyal to their aims and whom ever will assist them.

I could see a state of Ulster, not too dissimilar to how U.S. states or Canadian provinces operate being an option.

Charles Babbage · 17-05-2018 9:38pm

blanch152 wrote: »

That would mean that under the GFA we keep having referenda until we get the right answer we want, but then we stop. I don't think so, that isn't bi-partisan, and a new agreement has to continue to recognise the legitimate aspirations of the unionist community to be part of the UK.

They can persuade the rest of us of the desireability of this, if they want to join the UK. Peeling off parts of the country is not acceptable.

Seemingly some see the trend
https://www.channel4.com/news/by/gary-gibbon/blogs/forty-shades-of-green-fifty-shades-of-orange

All-New United Ireland Thread

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