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What race will "insert horse name here" run in

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    #62
    longshotvalue
    Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    WickIow Brave wrote: »
    Djakadam went off 3s fav last year. Now 33s. I wouldn't say he's gone at the game at all. Way overs.

    I had another look and ladbrokes gave me a price boost to 40/1. In my mind he is at worst 2/1 to place maybe 5/2.


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    #63
    RivetingRoger
    Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    Still half expect Djakadam to show up in the Ryanair


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    #64
    RivetingRoger
    Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    For me the bet of the week is UDS @ 2/1 or even 9/4
    Stone cold cert to win for me
    Nothing there to beat it, its nearest market oppostion are horses that are not even running in the race ie Min, Yorkhill, Douvan
    Top Notch is never ever beating UDS and Cue Card's days in grade one class are over. Waiting Patiently certainly would come close but again, not going to run.
    UDS is buying money and a treble with Apples Jade, Samcro, UDS is literally buying money


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    #65
    posturingpat
    Registered Users Posts: 2,722 ✭✭✭posturingpat


    RivetingRoger wrote: »
    For me the bet of the week is UDS @ 2/1 or even 9/4
    Stone cold cert to win for me
    Nothing there to beat it, its nearest market oppostion are horses that are not even running in the race ie Min, Yorkhill, Douvan
    Top Notch is never ever beating UDS and Cue Card's days in grade one class are over. Waiting Patiently certainly would come close but again, not going to run.
    UDS is buying money and a treble with Apples Jade, Samcro, UDS is literally buying money

    I agree with most of this but i've something in the back of my mind telling me he might be near the end of the line. Has been at such a high level for so long and puts a lot into every race. It all catches up eventually.


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    #66
    WickIow Brave
    Closed Accounts Posts: 620 ✭✭✭WickIow Brave


    I've already accepted that if I back UDS he'll lose and if I take him on he wins. I hope Yorkhill runs here.


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    #67
    RivetingRoger
    Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    I would agree he may not still be 7/8 but my main reason for such confidence is there is nothing to beat him in that race. Ironically the only horses that could beat him (WP apart) are Yorkhill/Min but neither will run

    If Top Notch and Cue Card are 2nd and 3rd in the betting at the post, UDS wins 100%
    And at 2/1 and even 9/4 its the biggest giveaway since Vautours evens in the same race 2 years ago


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    #68
    RivetingRoger
    Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    WickIow Brave wrote: »
    I've already accepted that if I back UDS he'll lose and if I take him on he wins. I hope Yorkhill runs here.

    Big problem for Yorkhill backers is, whether he runs in CH or Ryanair, in both cases, Ruby will not be on him, and with no Ruby I can't see Yorkhill win anything.
    Ruby seems to be able to handle him in a way PT obviously can't and with Ruby on board you would be far more confident, but no way Ruby gets off Faugheen or UDS so I'd say Yorkhill is unlikely :(


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    #69
    posturingpat
    Registered Users Posts: 2,722 ✭✭✭posturingpat


    RivetingRoger wrote: »
    I would agree he may not still be 7/8 but my main reason for such confidence is there is nothing to beat him in that race. Ironically the only horses that could beat him (WP apart) are Yorkhill/Min but neither will run

    If Top Notch and Cue Card are 2nd and 3rd in the betting at the post, UDS wins 100%
    And at 2/1 and even 9/4 its the biggest giveaway since Vautours evens in the same race 2 years ago

    :mad: This infuriates me so much. Stick the house car, mortgage, child benefit,college saving funds, family treasure on if he's 100% to win.
    There's no 100% certainty in racing and certainly not at Cheltenham.:mad:


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    #70
    kiers47
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭kiers47


    RivetingRoger wrote: »
    I would agree he may not still be 7/8 but my main reason for such confidence is there is nothing to beat him in that race. Ironically the only horses that could beat him (WP apart) are Yorkhill/Min but neither will run

    If Top Notch and Cue Card are 2nd and 3rd in the betting at the post, UDS wins 100%
    And at 2/1 and even 9/4 its the biggest giveaway since Vautours evens in the same race 2 years ago

    Your setting yourself up for a spectacular fall here. There are no 100%. It is racing everything has a chance of being beat.

    There is a fundamental flaw in how people perceive racing as a betting medium. People are to sentimental and inconsiderate of price. Price is everything.

    Every horse should have a price that you would consider backing them and laying them(or just no bet if thats how your inclined). If you are interested in making money that is.

    I think 2/1 is probably fairish i think id take him or leave him at that price if he started getting towards the 6/4 mark id be against him.


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    #71
    longshotvalue
    Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    RivetingRoger wrote: »
    I would agree he may not still be 7/8 but my main reason for such confidence is there is nothing to beat him in that race. Ironically the only horses that could beat him (WP apart) are Yorkhill/Min but neither will run

    If Top Notch and Cue Card are 2nd and 3rd in the betting at the post, UDS wins 100%
    And at 2/1 and even 9/4 its the biggest giveaway since Vautours evens in the same race 2 years ago

    If Waiting Patiently runs in this he is the most likely winner. Cur Card will give UDS a very good run for him money if he is in the same form as his last race. There is far better 2/1 shots as much as i love the horse and the fact that ill be roaring him home.


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    #72
    WickIow Brave
    Closed Accounts Posts: 620 ✭✭✭WickIow Brave


    Yorkhill is a big danger wherever he goes and Townend on him wouldn't bother me in the slightest. He gave Ruby a horrible time at Fairyhouse last year. Nothing to do with the jockey I think Cheltenham is near enough the only track he can show his ability.


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    #73
    RivetingRoger
    Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    posturingpat wrote: »
    :mad: This infuriates me so much. Stick the house car, mortgage, child benefit,college saving funds, family treasure on if he's 100% to win.
    There's no 100% certainty in racing and certainly not at Cheltenham.:mad:

    Jyzis Sorry for pissing in you're cornflakes Pat!
    I meant it as a figure of speech!
    Of course he isnt 100%, nothing is. I get that.
    I was being a bit hyperbolic, fair enough!!!


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    #74
    RivetingRoger
    Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    posturingpat wrote: »
    :mad: This infuriates me so much. Stick the house car, mortgage, child benefit,college saving funds, family treasure on if he's 100% to win.
    There's no 100% certainty in racing and certainly not at Cheltenham.:mad:

    For ther record....
    House - Rentng
    Car - an 06!
    Child Benefit - She would divorce me!
    College savings funds - ya...that.....cough!
    Family Treasure........ see above!


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    #75
    Charlie George
    Registered Users Posts: 539 ✭✭✭Charlie George


    Djackadam has zero chance, was winning all around him in Ireland before last 2 years gold cups and wasn't good enough and doesn't stay 3 miles 2,a snippet of the horse this year so for me has zero chance, which one of Mullins will ruby pick.


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    #76
    longshotvalue
    Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    Charlie George wrote: »
    Djackadam has zero chance, was winning all around him in Ireland before last 2 years gold cups and wasn't good enough and doesn't stay 3 miles 2,a snippet of the horse this year so for me has zero chance, which one of Mullins will ruby pick.


    No he wasn't , his form looks fairly similar other than the 1 bad run. He's only won the John Durkan and nothing else.

    He's a better horse on decent ground and anyone that thinks he doesn't stay is being silly, he has been placed in 3 gold cups, he stays, just not as well as sizing john for example.


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    #77
    kiers47
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭kiers47


    aidankkk wrote: »
    No he wasn't , his form looks fairly similar other than the 1 bad run. He's only won the John Durkan and nothing else.

    He's a better horse on decent ground and anyone that thinks he doesn't stay is being silly, he has been placed in 3 gold cups, he stays, just not as well as sizing john for example.

    He's only been placed in 2. He was 4th last year.


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    #78
    WickIow Brave
    Closed Accounts Posts: 620 ✭✭✭WickIow Brave


    Do some people ever consider price when they
    back a horse?

    ZERO CHANCE
    CANNOT WIN

    Yeah, thanks for telling me a 33/1 shot has 'zero chance'.


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    #79
    posturingpat
    Registered Users Posts: 2,722 ✭✭✭posturingpat


    RivetingRoger wrote: »
    For ther record....
    House - Rentng
    Car - an 06!
    Child Benefit - She would divorce me!
    College savings funds - ya...that.....cough!
    Family Treasure........ see above!

    100% but.


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    #80
    posturingpat
    Registered Users Posts: 2,722 ✭✭✭posturingpat


    RivetingRoger wrote: »
    Jyzis Sorry for pissing in you're cornflakes Pat!
    I meant it as a figure of speech!
    Of course he isnt 100%, nothing is. I get that.
    I was being a bit hyperbolic, fair enough!!!

    Indeed I was Ott, apologies,I should've put on the kettle and then replied but I can't help myself when I see posts like that, particularly this time of year when it's at its most frequent.


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    #81
    posturingpat
    Registered Users Posts: 2,722 ✭✭✭posturingpat


    WickIow Brave wrote: »
    Do some people ever consider price when they
    back a horse?

    ZERO CHANCE
    CANNOT WIN

    Yeah, thanks for telling me a 33/1 shot has 'zero chance'.

    Notice I'm not having any derogatory comments towards anybody thinking of an each way nibble this year at the price despite continually doing so last year.
    Price is such a huge factor and people seem to ignore it so often.
    I don't fancy him at all but could understand someone having a bit of 33/1, if they were taking 3/1 I'd tell them to get a new hobby.


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    #82
    Father Hernandez
    Registered Users Posts: 11,227 ✭✭✭✭Father Hernandez


    What race will the Storyteller go in, brown plate or Ultima? Preferably the latter...


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    #83
    posturingpat
    Registered Users Posts: 2,722 ✭✭✭posturingpat


    Father Hernandez wrote: »
    What race will the Storyteller go in, brown plate or Ultima? Preferably the latter...

    Elliott said the plate most likely at a Preview last night according to twitter....


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    #84
    carq
    Registered Users Posts: 869 ✭✭✭carq


    Verdana Blue- Champ hurdle or Mares ?


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    #85
    posturingpat
    Registered Users Posts: 2,722 ✭✭✭posturingpat


    carq wrote: »
    Verdana Blue- Champ hurdle or Mares ?

    Think Nicky said Champion. Hard to see her stay in the Mares, ball of speed.


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    #86
    diomed
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭diomed


    Order Date Race Runners
    1 13-Mar-18 Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m87y 53
    2 13-Mar-18 Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 (5yo+) 1m7f199y 13
    3 13-Mar-18 Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m1f 83
    4 13-Mar-18 Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m87y 19
    5 13-Mar-18 OLBG Mares' Hurdle (Grade 1) (Registered as The David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m3f200y 27
    6 13-Mar-18 National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Riders' Novices' Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m7f170y 53
    7 13-Mar-18 Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m4f78y 78
    8 14-Mar-18 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) (Registered As The Baring Bingham) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m5f26y 70
    9 14-Mar-18 RSA Insurance Novices' Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m80y 47
    10 14-Mar-18 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m5f26y 119
    11 14-Mar-18 Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 (5yo+) 1m7f199y 21
    12 14-Mar-18 Glenfarclas Chase (A Cross Country Chase) Cl2 (5yo+) 3m6f37y 21
    13 14-Mar-18 Boodles Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 (4yo) 2m87y 41
    14 14-Mar-18 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (A Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race) (Grade 1) Cl1 (4-6yo) 2m87y 31
    15 15-Mar-18 JLT Novices' Chase (Grade 1) (Registered As The Golden Miller) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m3f198y 46
    16 15-Mar-18 Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m7f213y 52
    17 15-Mar-18 Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) (Registered as The Festival Trophy) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m4f166y 28
    18 15-Mar-18 Sun Bets Stayers' Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m7f213y 26
    19 15-Mar-18 Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m4f166y 94
    20 15-Mar-18 Trull House Stud Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered as The Dawn Run) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m179y 30
    21 15-Mar-18 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Riders' Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 3m2f 46
    22 16-Mar-18 JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 (4yo) 2m179y 36
    23 16-Mar-18 Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m179y 87
    24 16-Mar-18 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) (Registered As The Spa Novices' Hurdle) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m7f213y 63
    25 16-Mar-18 Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m2f70y 27
    26 16-Mar-18 St. James's Place Foxhunter Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 3m2f70y 32
    27 16-Mar-18 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m4f56y 141
    28 16-Mar-18 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m62y 65

    1449


    I took this from the Racing Post website.
    Are the fields still that large, or is the RP website out of date?


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    #87
    madmoose
    Registered Users Posts: 1,022 ✭✭✭madmoose


    Upto date, 6 day stage tomorrow for the tuesday.


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    #88
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    aidankkk wrote: »
    No he wasn't , his form looks fairly similar other than the 1 bad run. He's only won the John Durkan and nothing else.

    He's a better horse on decent ground and anyone that thinks he doesn't stay is being silly, he has been placed in 3 gold cups, he stays, just not as well as sizing john for example.

    I'm a huge fan of your work Aidan but can't agree about Djakadam. His only graded chase wins are in the John Durkan on soft or heavy ground. He hasn't won a three mile chase of any description since the Thyestes over three years ago, on heavy, beating absolutely nothing.

    At the very least, that suggests to me that he's less suited to 3m+ and better ground, even if he is an admirably consistent performer. I would never be one to rule any horse in or out but at the prices I'd far rather Edwulf or even (if you held a gun to my head) Outlander.


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    #89
    FatRat
    Registered Users Posts: 3,194 ✭✭✭FatRat


    What are the chances that Oistrakh le Noir gets into the Fred Winter? I'm very keen on this horse and see that he's actually very strong in the betting even though, I'd imagine, it's very likely he won't get in on his mark? Or is there something I'm missing.


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    #90
    posturingpat
    Registered Users Posts: 2,722 ✭✭✭posturingpat


    By the look of Elliotts piece with Kevin Blake he has 1st dibs on Codd in the Amateur races, rides Jury duty and Squoateur and also retains the ride on Cause of causes in the xcountry.
    Pat Kelly may get looking sharpish before all the good amateurs are gone.


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    #91
    RivetingRoger
    Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    posturingpat wrote: »
    By the look of Elliotts piece with Kevin Blake he has 1st dibs on Codd in the Amateur races, rides Jury duty and Squoateur and also retains the ride on Cause of causes in the xcountry.
    Pat Kelly may get looking sharpish before all the good amateurs are gone.

    Does'nt Codd usually ride Mall Dini if Davy doesnt?


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