EV 2018 sales down?

Casati · 02-02-2018 04:24PM #1

I see on the main Motors Buying pages that EV sales for the first month are down over 30% versus 2017

That must be a real shocker as although I know the new Leaf is coming, the current model is still for sale and at a much lower price than the new model, not to mention Tesla now officially on the market with the BIK advantage, and other good EV’s like the Zoe and Ionia not to mention the new Golf and I3 in the market too.

Am I the only one surprised by this? Maybe Nissan have thousands of orders for new Leaf’s?

https://m.imgur.com/Mj0caeF

daheff · 02-02-2018 04:27PM

if you look at EV and Hybrids, the 2017 /2018 figures are similar.

My guess is people are opting for hybrids more so than EVs right now.

KCross · 02-02-2018 04:40PM

Its understandable. You generally can't tell anything from one month.

Very few people would buy the old model Leaf in Jan when the new model started hitting the roads yesterday. The full pricelist isn't even available yet so you would be crazy to buy an old model for what could be similar money for a 40kWh in a few months.

You can't buy an Ioniq

Both of those models account for 90%+ sales from last year.

You really need to wait until the new Leaf is arriving in volume. Then you will know if EV is on the up or not.

02-02-2018 05:02PM

It seems that only EVs you can actually buy it the moment is are Tesla S/X, i3, e-Golf and Zoe. Probably no new model LEAFs were registered in January and only a handful of outgoing models remained available to buy this year. No Hyundai IONIQs have shipped for a long time either.

I suspect that the second half of '18 will probably be quite a wild ride for Nissan as unlike almost everybody else they will not be battery manufacturing constrained. There is also rumoured Zoe refresh coming this summer with CCS and 110 PS targeting late summer making it more interesting car for many.

BobbyBingo · 02-02-2018 06:28PM

I believe that there is a backlog within the SEAI processing the EV grants and that reg-ing of 181 cars were being delayed as a consequence. Surely this would have a (very) material effect on Jan figs ?

NIMAN · 02-02-2018 06:34PM

They just aren't catching on, are they? Simple as that.

Government needs to give these figures serious attention. The uptake is shockingly slow.

Time to start hitting diesel harder?

ewj1978 · 02-02-2018 06:38PM

NIMAN wrote: »

They just aren't catching on, are they? Simple as that.

Government needs to give these figures serious attention. The uptake is shockingly slow.

Time to start hitting diesel harder?

yes lets force people to buy cars that will have to use an already disfunctional network.

NIMAN · 02-02-2018 06:39PM

ewj1978 wrote: »

yes lets force people to buy cars that will have to use an already disfunctional network.

Not force, but incentivise.

Agree with you about the network, although it doesn't affect a lot of owners who only home charge

unkel · 02-02-2018 07:30PM

I'm shocked there weren't more Tesla sales. I expected sales to explode. I honestly did. Is the target market (high level managers / company directors) really ignorant of EVs and the zero BIK that's in place? When a similar arrangement was put in place in the Netherlands a few years ago, The Tesla Model S was instantly the best selling EV in the country

The rest of the market collapsing was pretty obvious. Can't get Ioniq. New Leaf not out yet. Old Leaf old hat, only a good deal at massive discounts - (which don't really seem to be on offer much / there isn't all that much old stock). Zoe overpriced, Golf good diesel scrappage but like Ioniq poor availability. I3 will only ever be nice at the prices BMW is looking for. That's about the market covered, or did I miss anything?

Sabre Man · 02-02-2018 08:16PM

unkel wrote: »

I'm shocked there weren't more Tesla sales. I expected sales to explode. I honestly did. Is the target market (high level managers / company directors) really ignorant of EVs and the zero BIK that's in place? When a similar arrangement was put in place in the Netherlands a few years ago, The Tesla Model S was instantly the best selling EV in the country

It takes a few months after ordering for new Teslas to be delivered to Ireland, so perhaps more will show up in the coming months. In the past European deliveries have tended to be skewed towards the end of the quarter to maximize quarterly sales numbers.

unkel · 02-02-2018 08:27PM

Yeah that must be it. The first announcement of the free BIK was maybe in November / December? And still very vague at that stage - it looked like it was only going to be for one year. Which is no good. With the firm 3 year commitment now in place, presumably orders are coming in and deliveries will start to rise in March / April.

If Leaf availability is going to be good, it surely has every chance to be no 1 here, but the Teslas will be dark horses and I wouldn't bet against the Model S becoming the best selling EV here this year.

Rod Fantana · 02-02-2018 09:36PM

I ordered my Model X a few days after the budget in October. Latest estimate for delivery is mid March. I reckon it will be April/May before we will see a significant upturn in new Tesla registrations.

cros13 · 03-02-2018 07:01AM

Ioniq - Hyundai Ireland failed to get much of an allocation this year. UK/Ireland waiting list now over 12 months.
eGolf - 7 registered, but VW are supply constrained at the production side and have slowed down the line
Zoe - selling a lot better than it was thanks to the battery lease being dropped and the ZE40 battery, still some supply issues.
Leaf - first mk2 leaf deliveries not until early February and late March, both of which are fixed quantity deliveries
Tesla - 12 registrations but lots of people waiting on production/delivery of cars order late last year
BMW - new i3 got a price hike and the i3S which is the most attractive model for new buyers is not available in volume yet

03-02-2018 08:52AM

I do laugh at Toyota's Add, "you don't have to plug it in and will run on electric most of the time" or something like that. BS ! But yet you hear no add for the Leaf or it's advantages over a hybrid, no add from BMW on the i3, no add from Hyundai on the ioniq EV etc, no Add from renault on the Zoe etc. Only ones advertising are Toyota.

The majority of people are not willing to live with a low range car and manufacturers are and have been dragging their heals for years, EU legislation will still not do anything to deter people from driving diesel even after the diesel emissions scandal in the U.S, yes it was no issue here because our standards for air quality are very low compared to the U.S but it should have highlighted the issue all the same but E.U legislators care more about the pockets of E.U car makers more than the health of it's citizens.

Nissan for instance has only got one car model, the Leaf since 2011, a utter joke !

If batteries are an issue at present then there's no reason to have a large battery (20-30 Kwh) and a generator that only tops up the batteries. Forget plug-ins.

The real issue is money, and as long as ICEs are so profitable then there's little to 0 incentive for manufacturers to stop making them in favour of electrics, this is by far the greatest problem.

grogi · 03-02-2018 09:03AM

NIMAN wrote: »

They just aren't catching on, are they? Simple as that.

Government needs to give these figures serious attention. The uptake is shockingly slow.

Time to start hitting diesel harder?

Why just diesel? ICE in general...

goz83 · 03-02-2018 10:52AM

grogi wrote: »

Why just diesel? ICE in general...

Because it’s the most common and the worst.

Casati · 03-02-2018 11:11AM

cros13 wrote: »

Ioniq - Hyundai Ireland failed to get much of an allocation this year. UK/Ireland waiting list now over 12 months.
eGolf - 7 registered, but VW are supply constrained at the production side and have slowed down the line
Zoe - selling a lot better than it was thanks to the battery lease being dropped and the ZE40 battery, still some supply issues.
Leaf - first mk2 leaf deliveries not until early February and late March, both of which are fixed quantity deliveries
Tesla - 12 registrations but lots of people waiting on production/delivery of cars order late last year
BMW - new i3 got a price hike and the i3S which is the most attractive model for new buyers is not available in volume yet

If a single model, eg the Zoe, sold in reasonable numbers then the sales would show a big spike. Looks like EV’s are going to be a small niche this year again

thierry14 · 03-02-2018 11:52AM

Casati wrote: »

If a single model, eg the Zoe, sold in reasonable numbers then the sales would show a big spike. Looks like EV’s are going to be a small niche this year again

They will be a niche till the proper ones come along in 2020

Then explode

Perfectly understandable

ted1 · 03-02-2018 12:01PM

Casati wrote: »

cros13 wrote: »

Ioniq - Hyundai Ireland failed to get much of an allocation this year. UK/Ireland waiting list now over 12 months.
eGolf - 7 registered, but VW are supply constrained at the production side and have slowed down the line
Zoe - selling a lot better than it was thanks to the battery lease being dropped and the ZE40 battery, still some supply issues.
Leaf - first mk2 leaf deliveries not until early February and late March, both of which are fixed quantity deliveries
Tesla - 12 registrations but lots of people waiting on production/delivery of cars order late last year
BMW - new i3 got a price hike and the i3S which is the most attractive model for new buyers is not available in volume yet

If a single model, eg the Zoe, sold in reasonable numbers then the sales would show a big spike. Looks like EV’s are going to be a small niche this year again

I don’t think there will be a surplus on the forecourts

Sleeper12 · 03-02-2018 12:30PM

Casati wrote:

I see on the main Motors Buying pages that EV sales for the first month are down over 30% versus 2017

Aren't petrol and diesel new cars down too though?

grogi · 03-02-2018 01:35PM

goz83 wrote: »

Because it’s the most common and the worst.

They are not unfortunately. Modern petrols are worse than modern diesels unfortunately...

cros13 · 03-02-2018 02:35PM

Sleeper12 wrote: »

Aren't petrol and diesel new cars down too though?

Yes but in most markets EV sales are up, including in the UK which saw a 14% overall drop.
The big problem is that a lot of these issues are supply issues due to lack of battery production capacity (in large part down to the carmakers in general being f...ing idiots and assuming supply will appear by magic).
What little vehicle supply there is is being allocated to the markets which already have strong EV sales like Norway, Netherlands and the UK.

With the exception of Tesla, Nissan and BYD all the carmakers are sharing a pool of battery supply that's only growing this year and next year by 50% YoY.
But to replace european annual car sales alone we need ~30 times 2017's global lithium ion production. That's actually very achievable... but the ~€100-150 billion over 10 years needed to build that capacity out needs to come from somewhere and the current manufacturers don't have the money nor are their management willing to take on that kind of risk.

goz83 · 03-02-2018 08:54PM

grogi wrote: »

They are not unfortunately. Modern petrols are worse than modern diesels unfortunately...

Please explain how you came to that conclusion

liamog · 03-02-2018 09:48PM

Nissan have sold out of AESC.

We can add them to the list of manufacturers competing for global capacity.
Their are a number of vehicle manufacturers who think that 2020 is the tipping point.
When will we expect the big expansion announcements by LG Chem, SK Innovation, and Samsung SDI to achieve the required battery production?

03-02-2018 09:52PM

cros13 wrote: »

Yes but in most markets EV sales are up, including in the UK which saw a 14% overall drop.
The big problem is that a lot of these issues are supply issues due to lack of battery production capacity (in large part down to the carmakers in general being f...ing idiots and assuming supply will appear by magic).
What little vehicle supply there is is being allocated to the markets which already have strong EV sales like Norway, Netherlands and the UK.

With the exception of Tesla, Nissan and BYD all the carmakers are sharing a pool of battery supply that's only growing this year and next year by 50% YoY.
But to replace european annual car sales alone we need ~30 times 2017's global lithium ion production. That's actually very achievable... but the ~€100-150 billion over 10 years needed to build that capacity out needs to come from somewhere and the current manufacturers don't have the money nor are their management willing to take on that kind of risk.

EV sales are down in Norway also

grogi · 03-02-2018 11:19PM

goz83 wrote: »

Please explain how you came to that conclusion

Let's start with https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gasoline_direct_injection#Emissions....

There is a nice overview here https://www.empa.ch/web/s604/soot-particles-from-gdi.

In the current state of affairs, Euro6 diesels are less polluting than Euro6 direct-injection petrols. NOx is under control with EGR and AdBlue injections and PM with DPF - as result they emit much less small PM, especially benzopyrens etc.

cros13 · 03-02-2018 11:36PM

liamog wrote: »

Nissan have sold out of AESC.

We can add them to the list of manufacturers competing for global capacity.

Sure, but Nissan didn't let their AESC stake go without guaranteed cell volume and pricing for a period of a few years after the sale. That's a fairly standard practice especially with upcoming products (Leaf/eNV200) relying on AESC cells.
And all current AESC plants are co-located with Nissan factories. So, Nissan has a guaranteed supply of AESC cells but is going to the market for several newer products like the 60kWh Leaf ePlus (LG Chem) and the rumored new SUV (also rumored to use LG Chem cells).
That's the reason I've been saying that Leaf ePlus supply will be severely constrained and to expect the vast bulk of Leaf sales post the introduction of the ePlus to still have the 40kWh AESC pack.

Deleted User wrote: »

EV sales are down in Norway also

YoY? I can't find the january stats but I'd imagine it's a supply/timing issue same as everywhere else.

Sabre Man · 03-02-2018 11:56PM

About 2127 EVs were sold in Norway in January 2018 (23% market share for BEV and hydrogen vehicles, up from 17.1% one year ago)

Sources:
http://www.hegnar.no/Nyheter/Motor/2018/02/Stup-i-antallet-registrerte-biler-i-januar
https://www.motor.no/artikler/kraftig-fall-i-nybilsalget-i-januar/

Most popular:
Volkswagen Golf: 754
BMW i3: 614
Renault Zoe: 334
Toyota Yaris: 319
Toyota Auris: 253
Volvo V90: 227
Toyota Rav4: 213
Toyota C-HR: 202
Volkswagen Passat: 194
Hyundai IONIQ: 190

The total number of cars sold fell by 29.5% compared to January 2017 but this is probably due to the large number of big engined cars sold in the same period last year due to tax changes in 2017.

liamog · 04-02-2018 12:56AM

cros13 wrote: »

Sure, but Nissan didn't let their AESC stake go without guaranteed cell volume and pricing for a period of a few years after the sale. That's a fairly standard practice especially with upcoming products (Leaf/eNV200) relying on AESC cells.
And all current AESC plants are co-located with Nissan factories. So, Nissan has a guaranteed supply of AESC cells but is going to the market for several newer products like the 60kWh Leaf ePlus (LG Chem) and the rumored new SUV (also rumored to use LG Chem cells).
That's the reason I've been saying that Leaf ePlus supply will be severely constrained and to expect the vast bulk of Leaf sales post the introduction of the ePlus to still have the 40kWh AESC pack.

What's the difference between Nissan ordering N packs from a third party and Hyundai ordering N packs from a third party, that's the effective new relationship between Nissan and AESC.

The only difference I see is that Nissan are far more bullish on their order book. Mid to term long term I don't think it makes sense for vehicle manufacturers to directly enter the cell manufacturing business. The cells have too many other uses such as energy storage, so it should make sense that a third party can do it more efficiently.

cros13 · 04-02-2018 01:22AM

liamog wrote: »

What's the difference between Nissan ordering N packs from a third party and Hyundai ordering N packs from a third party, that's the effective new relationship between Nissan and AESC.

AESC is currently not supplying anyone else (apart from effectively sample order quantities).
AESC's factory sites were laid out to provide capacity or expansion capacity for ~600,000 40kWh-class vehicles per annum.
And AESC's current volume chemistries are uncompetitive with LG and Samsung SDI because of substantially worse energy density per kg.
They have something in the works but it's 2 years out.

GSR capital has a long term plan to move a lot of AESC's production to China and supply both the chinese and global market but they are years from doing any of that. For the moment they are lashed to the bow of HMS Nissan.

And on the open market it's not just the technical aspects of their uncompetitive product, it's the fact that their raw material requirements to make those uncompetitive products are broadly similar and that their plants being co-located beside Nissan plants means that to sell to anyone else they need to also cover higher transport costs.

04-02-2018 01:45AM

cros13 wrote: »

YoY? I can't find the january stats but I'd imagine it's a supply/timing issue same as everywhere else.

OK, but 2017 stats according to this puff piece

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-environment-norway-autos/norway-powers-ahead-over-half-new-car-sales-now-electric-or-hybrid-idUSKBN1ES0WC

Show they fell, despite the bullish headline

EV 2018 sales down?

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