EV 2018 sales down?

liamog

So effectively Nissan's advantage is that they are buying an inferior product which happens to be manufactured next door.

The reality is that Hyundai for example can sell as many IONIQ EVs as it can supply. The fact that there is over one years waiting list for one shows that there is pent up demand and the numbers are low due to the (battery) supply issues and not because they don't sell.

The other side of the equation is that there is no point for the legacy makers to sell cars with high range as there are not enough batteries to even build the entry level cars.

It will be interesting to see how the new LEAF will do once they start to ship in volume.

PS. Saw one old model 181 LEAF yesterday. New driver was on his first long trip.

goz83

grogi wrote: »

Let's start with https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gasoline_direct_injection#Emissions....

There is a nice overview here https://www.empa.ch/web/s604/soot-particles-from-gdi.

In the current state of affairs, Euro6 diesels are less polluting than Euro6 direct-injection petrols. NOx is under control with EGR and AdBlue injections and PM with DPF - as result they emit much less small PM, especially benzopyrens etc.

I take those results with a dollop of salt, but let's for arguments sake say that they are spot on. It is not saying that petrol is worse than diesel. It is saying that particulate filters should be fit to GDI vehicles too. That's before you take into account that thousands of modern (clean) diesels have had their DPF removed because of the associated problems and expenses.

If the same tests were performed on a diesel with no DPF, the results would be quite different and unfortunately it's not uncommon for the DPF to be removed. I had four car garage clients and all of them offered and advertised DFP removal.

Vronsky

unkel wrote: »

Yeah that must be it. The first announcement of the free BIK was maybe in November / December? And still very vague at that stage - it looked like it was only going to be for one year. Which is no good. With the firm 3 year commitment now in place, presumably orders are coming in and deliveries will start to rise in March / April.

If Leaf availability is going to be good, it surely has every chance to be no 1 here, but the Teslas will be dark horses and I wouldn't bet against the Model S becoming the best selling EV here this year.

Although people here know about Tesla, that have not really made a song and dance about their presence in Ireland.
I mean I haven't seen any advertising unlike any of the other manufacturers.

Tesla don't do any advertising.

goz83

samih wrote: »

Tesla don't do any advertising.

Well, they do...just not in the traditional way.

Vronsky

samih wrote: »

Tesla don't do any advertising.

And if you want to expand beyond a fanboy user base they will need to.

Google didn't advertise for years (and made a virtue out of it) then all of a sudden you'd see Google billboards on the London underground.

Vronsky, I'm referring to the fact that you said you didn't see any advertising for Tesla and there is a good reason for it as there is none. However, the free advertising by the owners and the press seem to work for them just fine. That being said Ireland is a market that could use an ad campaign but globally the free model seem to work just fine for Tesla as the hundreds of thousands of Model 3 deposits show.

Vronsky

samih wrote: »

Vronsky, I'm referring to the fact that you said you didn't see any advertising for Tesla and there is a good reason for it as there is none. However, the free advertising by the owners and the press seem to work for them just fine. That being said Ireland is a market that could use an ad campaign but globally the free model seem to work just fine for Tesla as the hundreds of thousands of Model 3 deposits show.

The question was why isn't Tesla out the door with orders in Ireland. Yes, globally their strategy send to be working and have developed a loyal and dedicated fan base - but market awareness of the company in Ireland is low.

And no matter what incentives, BIK or otherwise, they won't sell many of people don't know they exist. Now that may suit Tesla and their limited manufacturing capacity at the moment, but it would go some way to explain why we haven't seen many in the 2018 figures.

cros13

Deleted User wrote: »

OK, but 2017 stats according to this puff piece

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-environment-norway-autos/norway-powers-ahead-over-half-new-car-sales-now-electric-or-hybrid-idUSKBN1ES0WC

Show they fell, despite the bullish headline

Yet, ebil.no speculates over 4,000 people are on the pre-order list for the Nissan Leaf launch edition in Norway. None of which will be delivered in January yet they'll flood into the stats for February to June.
January is also a traditionally weak sales month in Norway for all cars, with March and September being the peak months.

Audi has nearly 1000 pre-orders (with deposits) for their eTron SUV in Norway as well.
Jaguar are opening pre-orders there for the iPace on March 1st.

Vronsky wrote: »

And if you want to expand beyond a fanboy user base they will need to.

Google didn't advertise for years (and made a virtue out of it) then all of a sudden you'd see Google billboards on the London underground.

Sure eventually.... but for the moment they sell every car they can make spending far less money per car on promotion than their competitors. They probably won't start using traditional advertising until they've munched through the vast majority of the 500,000 model 3 orders.

BoatMad

The question was why isn't Tesla out the door with orders in Ireland.

because the >40K company car market in ireland is not that big and you have to displace those users loyalty to very established brands in that market segment

also many company cars are lease hire and Im not aware that Teslas are on leases hire here in any numbers

Vronsky

BoatMad wrote: »

because the >40K company car market in ireland is not that big and you have to displace those users loyalty to very established brands in that market segment

also many company cars are lease hire and Im not aware that Teslas are on leases hire here in any numbers

And in order to do that displacement you have to do marketing - which Tesla hasn't done in Ireland.

A product won't sell if people don't know it exists and is available. And being a couple of press releases, Tesla have been invisible in Ireland.

Now I couldn't give a fiddler's what Tesla sells here and whether or not they are a success or otherwise - but I'm simply addressing the question as to why they're not selling like hot cakes here.

Or it could be that the Irish user has a higher expectation in that particular segment.

BobbyBingo

Vronsky wrote: »

And in order to do that displacement you have to do marketing - which Tesla hasn't done in Ireland.

A product won't sell if people don't know it exists and is available. And being a couple of press releases, Tesla have been invisible in Ireland.

Now I couldn't give a fiddler's what Tesla sells here and whether or not they are a success or otherwise - but I'm simply addressing the question as to why they're not selling like hot cakes here.

Or it could be that the Irish user has a higher expectation in that particular segment.

Or it could be that supply is limited ? Tesla orders put through post the budget on the 10 October are only being fulfilled over the next couple of weeks. I'd be surprised if newly registered Tesla numbers for March 2018 don't jump...

goz83

Interesting. Haven't searched for the NY Times article.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/0206/938622-european_commission_carmakers/

NIMAN

goz83 wrote: »

Interesting. Haven't searched for the NY Times article.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/0206/938622-european_commission_carmakers/

Ha.....asking car manufacturers to behave more ethically..

Sure why don't we ask burglars to stop robbing houses too.

JackieChan

BoatMad wrote: »

because the >40K company car market in ireland is not that big and you have to displace those users loyalty to very established brands in that market segment

also many company cars are lease hire and Im not aware that Teslas are on leases hire here in any numbers

For a 75d on a 3yr leasing deal for 50k km allowance(for the 3 years) it is typically over €1700/mth. Not exactly small money

gally74

unkel wrote: »

I'm shocked there weren't more Tesla sales. I expected sales to explode. I honestly did. Is the target market (high level managers / company directors) really ignorant of EVs and the zero BIK that's in place? When a similar arrangement was put in place in the Netherlands a few years ago, The Tesla Model S was instantly the best selling EV in the country

The rest of the market collapsing was pretty obvious. Can't get Ioniq. New Leaf not out yet. Old Leaf old hat, only a good deal at massive discounts - (which don't really seem to be on offer much / there isn't all that much old stock). Zoe overpriced, Golf good diesel scrappage but like Ioniq poor availability. I3 will only ever be nice at the prices BMW is looking for. That's about the market covered, or did I miss anything?

I'd buy an I pace any day before a Tesla,

Casati

JackieChan wrote: »

For a 75d on a 3yr leasing deal for 50k km allowance(for the 3 years) it is typically over €1700/mth. Not exactly small money

That’s really expensive at 61k over three years but it’s an 87k car

Most ‘exec’ level company cars are a lot cheaper, ie circa 50k gets a E220 or 520d and you can get a three year lease for less than 30k. I’m not saying a 520d is a better car but this is the typical competition on company car fleets

Tesla are offering pcp on the 75d with a three year cost of 57,000 so that’s beyond the reach of most exec car allowances too - ie a company car driver offered a car allowance in lieu of a 520d might be 12k before tax per annum

The Tesla suits the smaller company where the owner can buy a Tesla cash out of company profit and then drive it at zero BIK and probably sell after three years for strong money but I doubt that this is a big market

Water John

Toyota dropping diesel in cars.
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/toyota-to-end-production-of-diesel-cars-this-year-1.3415933

That is a real market signal.

Shefwedfan

Water John wrote: »

Toyota dropping diesel in cars.
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/toyota-to-end-production-of-diesel-cars-this-year-1.3415933

That is a real market signal.

On the cards now for a while once they pushed Hybrid across the range, especially the vehicles which you would normally buy diesel

If buying Rav4/C-HR etc they are pushing hybrid

n97 mini

Water John wrote: »

Toyota dropping diesel in cars.
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/toyota-to-end-production-of-diesel-cars-this-year-1.3415933

That is a real market signal.

Japanese manufacturers were always reluctant participants in the diesel market. There's no real market outside the EU for diesel cars. It only exists in the EU because the German and French car manufacturers have lobbied for it.

n97 mini

n97 mini wrote: »

It only exists in the EU because the German and French car manufacturers have lobbied for it.

That's because of the scare mongering around Co2 and the Man Made Climate Change Scam.

It was the easiest cheapest way for them to reduce Co2 which is all legislators cared about.

ayux4rj6zql2ph

This post has been deleted.

Hard to know, rumours of banning new diesel sales might actually make 2nd hand values rocket , most of the population simply won't touch an electric car unless they're made to and that's not going to effect 2nd hand car buyers unless restrictions are put on older diesels or there's big hikes on Diesel which is unlikely.

Water John

Well Mad Lad, you kept telling us most people had no interest and never would in EV. However, we now have a situation where demand for same, exceeds supply.

I suppose us farmers, will always have a use for an old diesel to tow a trailer. But diesel as a transport fuel will gradually fade out.

I said the majority of people have no interest in Electrics in their current form I never said people wouldn't buy them when they become good enough. But taxes will need to go up in the mean time but you just can't make people change to electric when there's not many models to choose and range is still low.

Gradually Diesel for passenger cars will fade out but it will take a lot longer I reckon for agricultural vehicles and most heavy goods vehicles.

I can't wait to see the back of diesels and welcome more EV sales but manufacturers need to get the finger out, battery suppliers too.

Once range hits a real 300 Km and recharge times maybe 30 mins tops for this 300 Kms or at least 250 then electrics become viable for a lot more people but people still need a lot more models to choose.

The greatest drive to change people will be increased taxes and also reduced diesel production.

I would estimate that most of these Toyota Diesel buyers would simply choose the hybrid anyway and not go the EV route.

This time next year should see a good improvement in the Fast charge Network at some major motorway Topaz service stations, 4 x 350 Kw chargers per site and Topaz plan to install their own chargers too at other locations. It would be good progress at least in the network.

n97 mini

Water John wrote: »

Well Mad Lad, you kept telling us most people had no interest and never would in EV. However, we now have a situation where demand for same, exceeds supply.

I suppose us farmers, will always have a use for an old diesel to tow a trailer. But diesel as a transport fuel will gradually fade out.

There are alternatives to diesel tractors (e.g. CNG), just not many in Europe. Time to start lobbying your TD!

grogi

Water John wrote: »

Toyota dropping diesel in cars.
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/toyota-to-end-production-of-diesel-cars-this-year-1.3415933

That is a real market signal.

Is it a surprise for anybody?!

Toyota wasn't investing significant money into diesel engines development for years. When they needed some (exp for Avensis), they are buying them externally...

Water John

There are even EV tractor, prototypes.

BoatMad

This time next year should see a good improvement in the Fast charge Network at some major motorway Topaz service stations, 4 x 350 Kw chargers per site and Topaz plan to install their own chargers too at other locations. It would be good progress at least in the network.

Yes the Gov his looking at seriously incentivising MSA to expand EV charging , On line MSAs are of course effectively owned by the NRA ( or its successor )

I suspect this is whats driving this , as its a major policy platform for DCCAE