EV 2018 sales down?

Casati

I see on the main Motors Buying pages that EV sales for the first month are down over 30% versus 2017

That must be a real shocker as although I know the new Leaf is coming, the current model is still for sale and at a much lower price than the new model, not to mention Tesla now officially on the market with the BIK advantage, and other good EV’s like the Zoe and Ionia not to mention the new Golf and I3 in the market too.

Am I the only one surprised by this? Maybe Nissan have thousands of orders for new Leaf’s?


https://m.imgur.com/Mj0caeF

daheff

if you look at EV and Hybrids, the 2017 /2018 figures are similar.


My guess is people are opting for hybrids more so than EVs right now.

KCross

Its understandable. You generally can't tell anything from one month.

Very few people would buy the old model Leaf in Jan when the new model started hitting the roads yesterday. The full pricelist isn't even available yet so you would be crazy to buy an old model for what could be similar money for a 40kWh in a few months.

You can't buy an Ioniq


Both of those models account for 90%+ sales from last year.

You really need to wait until the new Leaf is arriving in volume. Then you will know if EV is on the up or not.

It seems that only EVs you can actually buy it the moment is are Tesla S/X, i3, e-Golf and Zoe. Probably no new model LEAFs were registered in January and only a handful of outgoing models remained available to buy this year. No Hyundai IONIQs have shipped for a long time either.

I suspect that the second half of '18 will probably be quite a wild ride for Nissan as unlike almost everybody else they will not be battery manufacturing constrained. There is also rumoured Zoe refresh coming this summer with CCS and 110 PS targeting late summer making it more interesting car for many.

BobbyBingo

I believe that there is a backlog within the SEAI processing the EV grants and that reg-ing of 181 cars were being delayed as a consequence. Surely this would have a (very) material effect on Jan figs ?

NIMAN

They just aren't catching on, are they? Simple as that.

Government needs to give these figures serious attention. The uptake is shockingly slow.

Time to start hitting diesel harder?

ewj1978

NIMAN wrote: »

They just aren't catching on, are they? Simple as that.

Government needs to give these figures serious attention. The uptake is shockingly slow.

Time to start hitting diesel harder?

yes lets force people to buy cars that will have to use an already disfunctional network.

NIMAN

ewj1978 wrote: »

yes lets force people to buy cars that will have to use an already disfunctional network.

Not force, but incentivise.

Agree with you about the network, although it doesn't affect a lot of owners who only home charge

unkel

I'm shocked there weren't more Tesla sales. I expected sales to explode. I honestly did. Is the target market (high level managers / company directors) really ignorant of EVs and the zero BIK that's in place? When a similar arrangement was put in place in the Netherlands a few years ago, The Tesla Model S was instantly the best selling EV in the country

The rest of the market collapsing was pretty obvious. Can't get Ioniq. New Leaf not out yet. Old Leaf old hat, only a good deal at massive discounts - (which don't really seem to be on offer much / there isn't all that much old stock). Zoe overpriced, Golf good diesel scrappage but like Ioniq poor availability. I3 will only ever be nice at the prices BMW is looking for. That's about the market covered, or did I miss anything?

Sabre Man

unkel wrote: »

I'm shocked there weren't more Tesla sales. I expected sales to explode. I honestly did. Is the target market (high level managers / company directors) really ignorant of EVs and the zero BIK that's in place? When a similar arrangement was put in place in the Netherlands a few years ago, The Tesla Model S was instantly the best selling EV in the country

It takes a few months after ordering for new Teslas to be delivered to Ireland, so perhaps more will show up in the coming months. In the past European deliveries have tended to be skewed towards the end of the quarter to maximize quarterly sales numbers.

unkel

Yeah that must be it. The first announcement of the free BIK was maybe in November / December? And still very vague at that stage - it looked like it was only going to be for one year. Which is no good. With the firm 3 year commitment now in place, presumably orders are coming in and deliveries will start to rise in March / April.

If Leaf availability is going to be good, it surely has every chance to be no 1 here, but the Teslas will be dark horses and I wouldn't bet against the Model S becoming the best selling EV here this year.

Rod Fantana

I ordered my Model X a few days after the budget in October. Latest estimate for delivery is mid March. I reckon it will be April/May before we will see a significant upturn in new Tesla registrations.

cros13

Ioniq - Hyundai Ireland failed to get much of an allocation this year. UK/Ireland waiting list now over 12 months.
eGolf - 7 registered, but VW are supply constrained at the production side and have slowed down the line
Zoe - selling a lot better than it was thanks to the battery lease being dropped and the ZE40 battery, still some supply issues.
Leaf - first mk2 leaf deliveries not until early February and late March, both of which are fixed quantity deliveries
Tesla - 12 registrations but lots of people waiting on production/delivery of cars order late last year
BMW - new i3 got a price hike and the i3S which is the most attractive model for new buyers is not available in volume yet

I do laugh at Toyota's Add, "you don't have to plug it in and will run on electric most of the time" or something like that. BS ! But yet you hear no add for the Leaf or it's advantages over a hybrid, no add from BMW on the i3, no add from Hyundai on the ioniq EV etc, no Add from renault on the Zoe etc. Only ones advertising are Toyota.

The majority of people are not willing to live with a low range car and manufacturers are and have been dragging their heals for years, EU legislation will still not do anything to deter people from driving diesel even after the diesel emissions scandal in the U.S, yes it was no issue here because our standards for air quality are very low compared to the U.S but it should have highlighted the issue all the same but E.U legislators care more about the pockets of E.U car makers more than the health of it's citizens.

Nissan for instance has only got one car model, the Leaf since 2011, a utter joke !

If batteries are an issue at present then there's no reason to have a large battery (20-30 Kwh) and a generator that only tops up the batteries. Forget plug-ins.

The real issue is money, and as long as ICEs are so profitable then there's little to 0 incentive for manufacturers to stop making them in favour of electrics, this is by far the greatest problem.

grogi

NIMAN wrote: »

They just aren't catching on, are they? Simple as that.

Government needs to give these figures serious attention. The uptake is shockingly slow.

Time to start hitting diesel harder?

Why just diesel? ICE in general...

goz83

grogi wrote: »

Why just diesel? ICE in general...

Because it’s the most common and the worst.

Casati

cros13 wrote: »

Ioniq - Hyundai Ireland failed to get much of an allocation this year. UK/Ireland waiting list now over 12 months.
eGolf - 7 registered, but VW are supply constrained at the production side and have slowed down the line
Zoe - selling a lot better than it was thanks to the battery lease being dropped and the ZE40 battery, still some supply issues.
Leaf - first mk2 leaf deliveries not until early February and late March, both of which are fixed quantity deliveries
Tesla - 12 registrations but lots of people waiting on production/delivery of cars order late last year
BMW - new i3 got a price hike and the i3S which is the most attractive model for new buyers is not available in volume yet

If a single model, eg the Zoe, sold in reasonable numbers then the sales would show a big spike. Looks like EV’s are going to be a small niche this year again

thierry14

Casati wrote: »

If a single model, eg the Zoe, sold in reasonable numbers then the sales would show a big spike. Looks like EV’s are going to be a small niche this year again

They will be a niche till the proper ones come along in 2020

Then explode

Perfectly understandable

ted1

Casati wrote: »

cros13 wrote: »

Ioniq - Hyundai Ireland failed to get much of an allocation this year. UK/Ireland waiting list now over 12 months.
eGolf - 7 registered, but VW are supply constrained at the production side and have slowed down the line
Zoe - selling a lot better than it was thanks to the battery lease being dropped and the ZE40 battery, still some supply issues.
Leaf - first mk2 leaf deliveries not until early February and late March, both of which are fixed quantity deliveries
Tesla - 12 registrations but lots of people waiting on production/delivery of cars order late last year
BMW - new i3 got a price hike and the i3S which is the most attractive model for new buyers is not available in volume yet

If a single model, eg the Zoe, sold in reasonable numbers then the sales would show a big spike. Looks like EV’s are going to be a small niche this year again

I don’t think there will be a surplus on the forecourts

Sleeper12

Casati wrote:

I see on the main Motors Buying pages that EV sales for the first month are down over 30% versus 2017

Aren't petrol and diesel new cars down too though?

grogi

goz83 wrote: »

Because it’s the most common and the worst.

They are not unfortunately. Modern petrols are worse than modern diesels unfortunately...

cros13

Sleeper12 wrote: »

Aren't petrol and diesel new cars down too though?

Yes but in most markets EV sales are up, including in the UK which saw a 14% overall drop.
The big problem is that a lot of these issues are supply issues due to lack of battery production capacity (in large part down to the carmakers in general being f...ing idiots and assuming supply will appear by magic).
What little vehicle supply there is is being allocated to the markets which already have strong EV sales like Norway, Netherlands and the UK.

With the exception of Tesla, Nissan and BYD all the carmakers are sharing a pool of battery supply that's only growing this year and next year by 50% YoY.
But to replace european annual car sales alone we need ~30 times 2017's global lithium ion production. That's actually very achievable... but the ~€100-150 billion over 10 years needed to build that capacity out needs to come from somewhere and the current manufacturers don't have the money nor are their management willing to take on that kind of risk.

goz83

grogi wrote: »

They are not unfortunately. Modern petrols are worse than modern diesels unfortunately...

Please explain how you came to that conclusion

liamog

Nissan have sold out of AESC.

We can add them to the list of manufacturers competing for global capacity.
Their are a number of vehicle manufacturers who think that 2020 is the tipping point.
When will we expect the big expansion announcements by LG Chem, SK Innovation, and Samsung SDI to achieve the required battery production?

cros13

cros13 wrote: »

Yes but in most markets EV sales are up, including in the UK which saw a 14% overall drop.
The big problem is that a lot of these issues are supply issues due to lack of battery production capacity (in large part down to the carmakers in general being f...ing idiots and assuming supply will appear by magic).
What little vehicle supply there is is being allocated to the markets which already have strong EV sales like Norway, Netherlands and the UK.

With the exception of Tesla, Nissan and BYD all the carmakers are sharing a pool of battery supply that's only growing this year and next year by 50% YoY.
But to replace european annual car sales alone we need ~30 times 2017's global lithium ion production. That's actually very achievable... but the ~€100-150 billion over 10 years needed to build that capacity out needs to come from somewhere and the current manufacturers don't have the money nor are their management willing to take on that kind of risk.

EV sales are down in Norway also

grogi

goz83 wrote: »

Please explain how you came to that conclusion

Let's start with https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gasoline_direct_injection#Emissions....

There is a nice overview here https://www.empa.ch/web/s604/soot-particles-from-gdi.

In the current state of affairs, Euro6 diesels are less polluting than Euro6 direct-injection petrols. NOx is under control with EGR and AdBlue injections and PM with DPF - as result they emit much less small PM, especially benzopyrens etc.

cros13

liamog wrote: »

Nissan have sold out of AESC.

We can add them to the list of manufacturers competing for global capacity.

Sure, but Nissan didn't let their AESC stake go without guaranteed cell volume and pricing for a period of a few years after the sale. That's a fairly standard practice especially with upcoming products (Leaf/eNV200) relying on AESC cells.
And all current AESC plants are co-located with Nissan factories. So, Nissan has a guaranteed supply of AESC cells but is going to the market for several newer products like the 60kWh Leaf ePlus (LG Chem) and the rumored new SUV (also rumored to use LG Chem cells).
That's the reason I've been saying that Leaf ePlus supply will be severely constrained and to expect the vast bulk of Leaf sales post the introduction of the ePlus to still have the 40kWh AESC pack.

Deleted User wrote: »

EV sales are down in Norway also

YoY? I can't find the january stats but I'd imagine it's a supply/timing issue same as everywhere else.

Sabre Man

About 2127 EVs were sold in Norway in January 2018 (23% market share for BEV and hydrogen vehicles, up from 17.1% one year ago)

Sources:
http://www.hegnar.no/Nyheter/Motor/2018/02/Stup-i-antallet-registrerte-biler-i-januar
https://www.motor.no/artikler/kraftig-fall-i-nybilsalget-i-januar/

Most popular:
Volkswagen Golf: 754
BMW i3: 614
Renault Zoe: 334
Toyota Yaris: 319
Toyota Auris: 253
Volvo V90: 227
Toyota Rav4: 213
Toyota C-HR: 202
Volkswagen Passat: 194
Hyundai IONIQ: 190

The total number of cars sold fell by 29.5% compared to January 2017 but this is probably due to the large number of big engined cars sold in the same period last year due to tax changes in 2017.

liamog

cros13 wrote: »

Sure, but Nissan didn't let their AESC stake go without guaranteed cell volume and pricing for a period of a few years after the sale. That's a fairly standard practice especially with upcoming products (Leaf/eNV200) relying on AESC cells.
And all current AESC plants are co-located with Nissan factories. So, Nissan has a guaranteed supply of AESC cells but is going to the market for several newer products like the 60kWh Leaf ePlus (LG Chem) and the rumored new SUV (also rumored to use LG Chem cells).
That's the reason I've been saying that Leaf ePlus supply will be severely constrained and to expect the vast bulk of Leaf sales post the introduction of the ePlus to still have the 40kWh AESC pack.

What's the difference between Nissan ordering N packs from a third party and Hyundai ordering N packs from a third party, that's the effective new relationship between Nissan and AESC.

The only difference I see is that Nissan are far more bullish on their order book. Mid to term long term I don't think it makes sense for vehicle manufacturers to directly enter the cell manufacturing business. The cells have too many other uses such as energy storage, so it should make sense that a third party can do it more efficiently.

cros13

liamog wrote: »

What's the difference between Nissan ordering N packs from a third party and Hyundai ordering N packs from a third party, that's the effective new relationship between Nissan and AESC.

AESC is currently not supplying anyone else (apart from effectively sample order quantities).
AESC's factory sites were laid out to provide capacity or expansion capacity for ~600,000 40kWh-class vehicles per annum.
And AESC's current volume chemistries are uncompetitive with LG and Samsung SDI because of substantially worse energy density per kg.
They have something in the works but it's 2 years out.

GSR capital has a long term plan to move a lot of AESC's production to China and supply both the chinese and global market but they are years from doing any of that. For the moment they are lashed to the bow of HMS Nissan.

And on the open market it's not just the technical aspects of their uncompetitive product, it's the fact that their raw material requirements to make those uncompetitive products are broadly similar and that their plants being co-located beside Nissan plants means that to sell to anyone else they need to also cover higher transport costs.

cros13

cros13 wrote: »

YoY? I can't find the january stats but I'd imagine it's a supply/timing issue same as everywhere else.

OK, but 2017 stats according to this puff piece

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-environment-norway-autos/norway-powers-ahead-over-half-new-car-sales-now-electric-or-hybrid-idUSKBN1ES0WC

Show they fell, despite the bullish headline

liamog

So effectively Nissan's advantage is that they are buying an inferior product which happens to be manufactured next door.

The reality is that Hyundai for example can sell as many IONIQ EVs as it can supply. The fact that there is over one years waiting list for one shows that there is pent up demand and the numbers are low due to the (battery) supply issues and not because they don't sell.

The other side of the equation is that there is no point for the legacy makers to sell cars with high range as there are not enough batteries to even build the entry level cars.

It will be interesting to see how the new LEAF will do once they start to ship in volume.

PS. Saw one old model 181 LEAF yesterday. New driver was on his first long trip.

goz83

grogi wrote: »

Let's start with https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gasoline_direct_injection#Emissions....

There is a nice overview here https://www.empa.ch/web/s604/soot-particles-from-gdi.

In the current state of affairs, Euro6 diesels are less polluting than Euro6 direct-injection petrols. NOx is under control with EGR and AdBlue injections and PM with DPF - as result they emit much less small PM, especially benzopyrens etc.

I take those results with a dollop of salt, but let's for arguments sake say that they are spot on. It is not saying that petrol is worse than diesel. It is saying that particulate filters should be fit to GDI vehicles too. That's before you take into account that thousands of modern (clean) diesels have had their DPF removed because of the associated problems and expenses.

If the same tests were performed on a diesel with no DPF, the results would be quite different and unfortunately it's not uncommon for the DPF to be removed. I had four car garage clients and all of them offered and advertised DFP removal.

Vronsky

unkel wrote: »

Yeah that must be it. The first announcement of the free BIK was maybe in November / December? And still very vague at that stage - it looked like it was only going to be for one year. Which is no good. With the firm 3 year commitment now in place, presumably orders are coming in and deliveries will start to rise in March / April.

If Leaf availability is going to be good, it surely has every chance to be no 1 here, but the Teslas will be dark horses and I wouldn't bet against the Model S becoming the best selling EV here this year.

Although people here know about Tesla, that have not really made a song and dance about their presence in Ireland.
I mean I haven't seen any advertising unlike any of the other manufacturers.

Tesla don't do any advertising.

goz83

samih wrote: »

Tesla don't do any advertising.

Well, they do...just not in the traditional way.

Vronsky

samih wrote: »

Tesla don't do any advertising.

And if you want to expand beyond a fanboy user base they will need to.

Google didn't advertise for years (and made a virtue out of it) then all of a sudden you'd see Google billboards on the London underground.

Vronsky, I'm referring to the fact that you said you didn't see any advertising for Tesla and there is a good reason for it as there is none. However, the free advertising by the owners and the press seem to work for them just fine. That being said Ireland is a market that could use an ad campaign but globally the free model seem to work just fine for Tesla as the hundreds of thousands of Model 3 deposits show.

Vronsky

samih wrote: »

Vronsky, I'm referring to the fact that you said you didn't see any advertising for Tesla and there is a good reason for it as there is none. However, the free advertising by the owners and the press seem to work for them just fine. That being said Ireland is a market that could use an ad campaign but globally the free model seem to work just fine for Tesla as the hundreds of thousands of Model 3 deposits show.

The question was why isn't Tesla out the door with orders in Ireland. Yes, globally their strategy send to be working and have developed a loyal and dedicated fan base - but market awareness of the company in Ireland is low.

And no matter what incentives, BIK or otherwise, they won't sell many of people don't know they exist. Now that may suit Tesla and their limited manufacturing capacity at the moment, but it would go some way to explain why we haven't seen many in the 2018 figures.

cros13

Deleted User wrote: »

OK, but 2017 stats according to this puff piece

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-environment-norway-autos/norway-powers-ahead-over-half-new-car-sales-now-electric-or-hybrid-idUSKBN1ES0WC

Show they fell, despite the bullish headline

Yet, ebil.no speculates over 4,000 people are on the pre-order list for the Nissan Leaf launch edition in Norway. None of which will be delivered in January yet they'll flood into the stats for February to June.
January is also a traditionally weak sales month in Norway for all cars, with March and September being the peak months.

Audi has nearly 1000 pre-orders (with deposits) for their eTron SUV in Norway as well.
Jaguar are opening pre-orders there for the iPace on March 1st.

Vronsky wrote: »

And if you want to expand beyond a fanboy user base they will need to.

Google didn't advertise for years (and made a virtue out of it) then all of a sudden you'd see Google billboards on the London underground.

Sure eventually.... but for the moment they sell every car they can make spending far less money per car on promotion than their competitors. They probably won't start using traditional advertising until they've munched through the vast majority of the 500,000 model 3 orders.

BoatMad

The question was why isn't Tesla out the door with orders in Ireland.

because the >40K company car market in ireland is not that big and you have to displace those users loyalty to very established brands in that market segment

also many company cars are lease hire and Im not aware that Teslas are on leases hire here in any numbers

Vronsky

BoatMad wrote: »

because the >40K company car market in ireland is not that big and you have to displace those users loyalty to very established brands in that market segment

also many company cars are lease hire and Im not aware that Teslas are on leases hire here in any numbers

And in order to do that displacement you have to do marketing - which Tesla hasn't done in Ireland.

A product won't sell if people don't know it exists and is available. And being a couple of press releases, Tesla have been invisible in Ireland.

Now I couldn't give a fiddler's what Tesla sells here and whether or not they are a success or otherwise - but I'm simply addressing the question as to why they're not selling like hot cakes here.

Or it could be that the Irish user has a higher expectation in that particular segment.

BobbyBingo

Vronsky wrote: »

And in order to do that displacement you have to do marketing - which Tesla hasn't done in Ireland.

A product won't sell if people don't know it exists and is available. And being a couple of press releases, Tesla have been invisible in Ireland.

Now I couldn't give a fiddler's what Tesla sells here and whether or not they are a success or otherwise - but I'm simply addressing the question as to why they're not selling like hot cakes here.

Or it could be that the Irish user has a higher expectation in that particular segment.

Or it could be that supply is limited ? Tesla orders put through post the budget on the 10 October are only being fulfilled over the next couple of weeks. I'd be surprised if newly registered Tesla numbers for March 2018 don't jump...

goz83

Interesting. Haven't searched for the NY Times article.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/0206/938622-european_commission_carmakers/

NIMAN

goz83 wrote: »

Interesting. Haven't searched for the NY Times article.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/0206/938622-european_commission_carmakers/

Ha.....asking car manufacturers to behave more ethically..

Sure why don't we ask burglars to stop robbing houses too.

JackieChan

BoatMad wrote: »

because the >40K company car market in ireland is not that big and you have to displace those users loyalty to very established brands in that market segment

also many company cars are lease hire and Im not aware that Teslas are on leases hire here in any numbers

For a 75d on a 3yr leasing deal for 50k km allowance(for the 3 years) it is typically over €1700/mth. Not exactly small money

gally74

unkel wrote: »

I'm shocked there weren't more Tesla sales. I expected sales to explode. I honestly did. Is the target market (high level managers / company directors) really ignorant of EVs and the zero BIK that's in place? When a similar arrangement was put in place in the Netherlands a few years ago, The Tesla Model S was instantly the best selling EV in the country

The rest of the market collapsing was pretty obvious. Can't get Ioniq. New Leaf not out yet. Old Leaf old hat, only a good deal at massive discounts - (which don't really seem to be on offer much / there isn't all that much old stock). Zoe overpriced, Golf good diesel scrappage but like Ioniq poor availability. I3 will only ever be nice at the prices BMW is looking for. That's about the market covered, or did I miss anything?

I'd buy an I pace any day before a Tesla,

Casati

JackieChan wrote: »

For a 75d on a 3yr leasing deal for 50k km allowance(for the 3 years) it is typically over €1700/mth. Not exactly small money

That’s really expensive at 61k over three years but it’s an 87k car

Most ‘exec’ level company cars are a lot cheaper, ie circa 50k gets a E220 or 520d and you can get a three year lease for less than 30k. I’m not saying a 520d is a better car but this is the typical competition on company car fleets

Tesla are offering pcp on the 75d with a three year cost of 57,000 so that’s beyond the reach of most exec car allowances too - ie a company car driver offered a car allowance in lieu of a 520d might be 12k before tax per annum

The Tesla suits the smaller company where the owner can buy a Tesla cash out of company profit and then drive it at zero BIK and probably sell after three years for strong money but I doubt that this is a big market

Water John

Toyota dropping diesel in cars.
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/toyota-to-end-production-of-diesel-cars-this-year-1.3415933

That is a real market signal.

Shefwedfan

Water John wrote: »

Toyota dropping diesel in cars.
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/toyota-to-end-production-of-diesel-cars-this-year-1.3415933

That is a real market signal.

On the cards now for a while once they pushed Hybrid across the range, especially the vehicles which you would normally buy diesel

If buying Rav4/C-HR etc they are pushing hybrid