Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

thomond2006 · 26-12-2017 03:41PM

Rocko wrote: »

Munster are surely a great bet to win today. (stronger team out & home advantage)

After the late changes I'm less confident.

cup of tea · 13-01-2018 04:17PM

Zebo facing his future club Racing on Sunday, will be out to impress the new club.Man of the Match 22/1. It may be in the back of the commentators minds when giving the man of the match, of he plays relatively well was expecting a lot shorter.

joseywhales · 17-01-2018 12:48AM

Exeter champions cup 16/1 outright on PP. They can beat anyone, they should have beaten leinster away, they can beat anyone away from home, perfect cup rugby team (low errors,good discipline, good tactically, convert most possessions in the opposition 22). They are looking at a home semi if they can overcome the quarter finals. The Glasgow game is a formality I believe.

Neil3030 · 17-01-2018 02:51AM

joseywhales wrote: »

Exeter champions cup 16/1 outright on PP. They can beat anyone, they should have beaten leinster away, they can beat anyone away from home, perfect cup rugby team (low errors,good discipline, good tactically, convert most possessions in the opposition 22). They are looking at a home semi if they can overcome the quarter finals. The Glasgow game is a formality I believe.

Not a bad shout at all but FYI - they are 25/1 on a good few sites (B365, Will Hill, Paddy P)

thelad95 · 21-01-2018 02:40PM

Castres +23 at evens is printing money. In these conditions, and with Castres actually having something to play for, I think this will be a tight scrappy affair, don’t see a BP for Munster.

Bazzo · 21-01-2018 02:42PM

thelad95 wrote: »

Castres +23 at evens is printing money. In these conditions, and with Castres actually having something to play for, I think this will be a tight scrappy affair, don’t see a BP for Munster.

If Racing win(as they are on track to doing) due to the delayed kickoff Castres will have nothing to play for at kickoff.

sydthebeat · 31-01-2018 02:34PM

i think italy +20 is good value for their opening game against england.

i think italy will be determined not to repeat last years opening performance, and only succumbed to England by 21 point away last year, conceding 19 points in the last 10 minutes.

If they are able to not capitulate in the final quarter i think they have a good chance to beat the spread.

Wales v Scotland is a coin toss.... so many unknowns really. Home advantage is probably the reason the bookies have wales slight favourites, so i think an acca to include scotland + 6 @ 1/2, Ireland -4 and Italy +24 @ 2.8 / 1 has a decent chance.

31-01-2018 04:20PM

thelad95 wrote: »

Castres +23 at evens is printing money. In these conditions, and with Castres actually having something to play for, I think this will be a tight scrappy affair, don’t see a BP for Munster.

They were out to +28 at one point which I also thought was very generous, they rolled over and died though the useless feckers.

Zzippy · 01-02-2018 11:42AM

Paddy Power are 4/1 for our match with England to be a grand slam decider. I think that's pretty decent odds.
On the other hand, they're 5/6 that there will be no grand slam, 5/2 an England slam and 7/2 Ireland...

culline · 01-02-2018 12:27PM

Zzippy wrote: »

Paddy Power are 4/1 for our match with England to be a grand slam decider. I think that's pretty decent odds.
On the other hand, they're 5/6 that there will be no grand slam, 5/2 an England slam and 7/2 Ireland...

Is that equivalent to backing an 8 team acca at 4/1?

wp_rathead · 01-02-2018 12:33PM

The Scotland v England in Murrayfield would put be off that "Last Game a Grand Slam" bet

Zzippy · 01-02-2018 01:10PM

culline wrote: »

Is that equivalent to backing an 8 team acca at 4/1?

Well, when you put it like that...

Mc Love · 01-02-2018 01:40PM

Keith Earls is favourite to be top try scorer at 10/1 - not bad odds

Loafing Oaf · 01-02-2018 01:46PM

Zzippy wrote: »

On the other hand, they're 5/6 that there will be no grand slam,

Ireland & England to be the top 2 is 8/11 with Bet365. Do you guys reckon that's surer than No grand slam? Nearly all the pundits are saying it's between the 2 but a couple of them think Scotland might sneak in there...

kuang1 · 01-02-2018 01:46PM

Mc Love wrote: »

Keith Earls is favourite to be top try scorer at 10/1 - not bad odds

He'd need to be playing next week to have a chance. No reason other than injury why he wouldn't be I suppose?

Although ideally he'd finish the game as surely there'd be more tries in the 2nd half v Italy...

I never liked those bets when I used to gamble as more often than not it's a tie and you're getting paid for half or a third of your stake.

Zzippy · 01-02-2018 02:00PM

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Ireland & England to be the top 2 is 8/11 with Bet365. Do you guys reckon that's surer than No grand slam? Nearly all the pundits are saying it's between the 2 but a couple of them think Scotland might sneak in there...

Scotland are the most improved team but I think their front 5 are decimated with injury, particularly the front row, so their set piece may be all over the place.

Loafing Oaf · 01-02-2018 02:36PM

kuang1 wrote: »

I never liked those bets when I used to gamble as more often than not it's a tie and you're getting paid for half or a third of your stake.

I won two TTS bets last year: Liam Williams outright and England/Joseph double, and barely doubled my money overall. 7 or 8 guys tied on 3 tries for the 'award'.

aloooof · 01-02-2018 02:41PM

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I won two TTS bets last year: Liam Williams outright and England/Joseph double, and barely doubled my money overall. 7 or 8 guys tied on 3 tries for the 'award'.

There's just so much variance in that market, that I don't like betting on it. I think CJ and Craig Gilroy were tied for it as well, having both gotten a hattrick against Italy. Gilroy came on in the 2nd half of that game and I don't think got any more gametime in the whole tournament.

01-02-2018 02:45PM

Mc Love wrote: »

Keith Earls is favourite to be top try scorer at 10/1 - not bad odds

Earlier in the week you could have gotten Josh Adams at 125/1. Not much good now but he's still 25/1 which I think is pretty decent. He's the top try scorer in the AP so far this season playing in one of the worst teams. Wales are going to be playing something close to Scarlets rugby since they've basically picked the Scarlets team.

Byron McGuigan at 40/1 another decent shout imo. Scotland play expansive rugby, he's scoring well in the AP, he's scored a couple in the AIs.

Loafing Oaf · 01-02-2018 04:32PM

aloooof wrote: »

There's just so much variance in that market, that I don't like betting on it. I think CJ and Craig Gilroy were tied for it as well, having both gotten a hattrick against Italy. Gilroy came on in the 2nd half of that game and I don't think got any more gametime in the whole tournament.

But I suppose the flipside of that is some random 100/1 shot has a genuine chance of winning it, unlike in, say, top point scorer.

aloooof · 01-02-2018 04:36PM

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

But I suppose the flipside of that is some random 100/1 shot has a genuine chance of winning it, unlike in, say, top point scorer.

Agreed. Top points scorer is only ever really going to come from about 4 or 5 players, max. But hence why the odds are a lot shorter.

01-02-2018 04:40PM

I remember back in 2007 none other than ROG tied Jason Robinson as top try scorer. One would have had far longer odds than the other I'd imagine.

aloooof · 02-02-2018 03:25PM

Wales/Scotland over 43.5 points seems like a good shout to me.

vapor trails · 02-02-2018 07:59PM

Given the pre-match talk about 19yo out half Matthieu Jalibert I was thinking that if France were to win it would be highly likely that he as out-half would have played a fairly prominent role in helping the cause. Even if he's not the best French player on the pitch, his profile makes him the easy media darling type to receive the award.

If you are one of the few that think France might upset the odd's wouldn't it make sense to back him to be the man of the match at 20/1 (Skybet) rather than back France at the straight match odd's of 5/2 (Boyles). Or maybe do both!

Del.Monte · 02-02-2018 08:38PM

Surely worth a Euro - but not a cent more. Hell will freeze over before this French side beats Ireland.

Loafing Oaf · 02-02-2018 11:07PM

Thoughts on itoje 16/1 POTT

Del.Monte · 04-02-2018 12:05AM

Del.Monte wrote: »

Surely worth a Euro - but not a cent more. Hell will freeze over before this French side beats Ireland.

Lol.

I managed to squander this weekend's budget to no avail - yet again!

Some weeks I bet on my instincts, some weeks based on research but this weekend a mixture of the two proved fatal. I fancied Wales for the win at home but the more I looked at the two teams, took into account the form of Scottish players, listened to pundits the more I dithered and ended up scratching any bet on the game. Too close to call!!!

Instead I put everything on Ireland to beat the Handicap as there was nothing to be made on the straightforward win. Even at halftime the pundits were maintaining that Ireland's superior fitness would see them pull away in the final quarter... Cash-out was not available on my bet. Still it was all worth it to see the final phase of play and Johnny stealing the game with that superb drop goal.

thomond2006 · 08-02-2018 12:29PM

I really like Wales +12. I see a close England win.

Del.Monte · 08-02-2018 02:58PM

Scotland to win -5 at evens is my only bet for the weekend based on my very scientific analysis:

1) French teams don't travel.
2) Scotland are pissed off after Cardiff.
3) No slam for the French and they will lose interest.

God loves a trier.

sydthebeat · 08-02-2018 03:02PM

Del.Monte wrote: »

Scotland to win -5 at evens is my only bet for the weekend based on my very scientific analysis:

1) French teams don't travel.
2) Scotland are pissed off after Cardiff.
3) No slam for the French and they will lose interest.

God loves a trier.

Ive doubled that with over 51.5 points in the ireland game

Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

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