Another potential wind-storm Thursday AM 4-1-18

ninebeanrows · 03-01-2018 2:14pm #1

Very mixed guidance for a potential small low feature to move across Ireland overnight and through tomorrow morning.

Perhaps now a good time to bookend the Storm Eleanor threat and move onto this?

Some guidance outlined below.

EURO4

ICON

HIRLAM

More to follow....

Oscar Bravo · 03-01-2018 2:52pm

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Munster, Carlow, Kilkenny, Wexford and Wicklow

West to Southwest winds veering West to Northwest 55 to 65 km/hr gusts 90 to 110km/hr

Issued:

Wednesday 03 January 2018 12:00

Valid:

Thursday 04 January 2018 03:00 to Thursday 04 January 2018 13:00

Iancar29 · 03-01-2018 3:00pm

If the position remains the same there could be issues for Dublin as it coincides with the high tide of 4.5m at 1pm tomorrow.

ninebeanrows · 03-01-2018 4:11pm

ICON a little further north again.

It doesn't appear to be deepening rapidly as it crosses the country but does show steady enough deepening as it exits into the Irish Sea.

ninebeanrows · 03-01-2018 4:12pm

ICON winds

squarecircles · 03-01-2018 4:17pm

Evelyn Cusack on Mid west radio news said winds concentrated in the south west quadrant tonight but there was uncertainty over the track,also another small wind event possible tomorrow.

ninebeanrows · 03-01-2018 4:40pm

Not to be taken literally as GFS does not have the resolution even at 0.25 degree to display this type of system- but it has moved it north compared to it's previous run.

21-515UK.GIF?03-12

pad199207 · 03-01-2018 4:42pm

What a volatile period of weather we are in!

squarecircles · 03-01-2018 4:51pm

pad199207 wrote: »

What a volatile period of weather we are in!

It's no wonder given the temperatures on the east coast of America,a low of -22 forecast for the Boston area Friday night.

The manky mild old north Atlantic doesn't like this pouring out over it at all,at all.

ninebeanrows · 03-01-2018 5:09pm

An elongated- messy looking pressure field on the latest HIRLAM

hirlamuk-2-21-0.png?03-16

but then another 'feature' moves in overnight!

hirlamuk-2-36-0.png?03-17

Soccarboy11 · 03-01-2018 5:16pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

An elongated- messy looking pressure field on the latest HIRLAM

but then another 'feature' moves in overnight!

the isobars look very tight over the south there, that relates to some pretty strong winds i believe right?

munsterlegend · 03-01-2018 5:16pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

An elongated- messy looking pressure field on the latest HIRLAM

The second one Friday morning looks rather severe.

RoisinD · 03-01-2018 5:54pm

Not sure about another wind storm. Here in NW Clare the winds have been ever present since yesterday, there seems to be no let up

fraxinus1 · 03-01-2018 6:30pm

Very quiet in here.... always a sign that forecasts are gone belly up and people are fed up. I see Met eireann changed their wording in their forecasts this afternoon. Just gales now. I think we have had our weather excitement for now.... the cold spell that was forecasted to begin this weekend has been seriously downgraded to a non event so it’s back to rain and strong breezes for next week.

squarecircles · 03-01-2018 6:37pm

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Very quiet in here.... always a sign that forecasts are gone belly up and people are fed up. I see Met eireann changed their wording in their forecasts this afternoon. Just gales now. I think we have had our weather excitement for now.... the cold spell that was forecasted to begin this weekend has been seriously downgraded to a non event so it’s back to rain and strong breezes for next week.

Cheer up frax,you never know where a surprise storm may pop out of,or an unexpected cold snap,people are just taking a break after all the exciting weather we've been having,I know I am

I'm shattered

So chin up

JCX BXC · 03-01-2018 6:38pm

Forecasts change, that's why they're called forecasts and not definites

Also, I see no indication that next weeks cold spells gone belly up! How long will you continue to change things to suit your narrative?

I think we're all sick to the bone of the constant complaining of Met Eireann on all threads on here, how about we discuss the merit of their forecasts in the appropriate thread and leave these ones for the weather without constant pollution?

fraxinus1 · 03-01-2018 6:44pm

squarecircles wrote: »

Cheer up frax,you never know where a surprise storm may pop out of,or an unexpected cold snap,people are just taking a break after all the exciting weather we've been having,I know I am I'm shattered

So chin up

I’m not as cheerful or as optimistic as many of you on here. I try to be. I dislike January and the prospect of snow is a good distraction but it rarely materializes.

ninebeanrows · 03-01-2018 6:50pm

EURO4 has the system coming ashore around 6am and exiting the east coast around noon. However, the system doesn't appear to be deepening as it passes through.

redsteveireland · 03-01-2018 9:14pm

Key phrases/words to look out for which will make sure you don't take every word here as exactly how an event will pan out, but approach every event as a constantly developing situation.

"Potential wind-storm.."
"Mixed guidance.."
"Potential small low..."
"Possible.."
"Could be..."
"Uncertainty. ."

If people bear this in mind they might not be so quick to have a dig at forecasters, amateur or otherwise.

Gaoth Laidir · 03-01-2018 9:43pm

Slightly off topic but here are two pages from Tim Vasquez' Weather Forecasting Red Book (2006) that contain handy forecasting tips for surface lows, including the Rosenbloom Rule. I highly recommend picking up his books.

sryanbruen · 03-01-2018 10:07pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Slightly off topic but here are two pages from Tim Vasquez' Weather Forecasting Red Book (2006) that contain handy forecasting tips for surface lows, including the Rosenbloom Rule. I highly recommend picking up his books.

Thanks for that, I'm always up for recommendations on weather books because let's just say I'm not the best at searching for them.

Meteorite58 · 03-01-2018 10:07pm

ICON shows strong winds in the Orange warning category coming into the SW / W and crossing the country in perhaps a yellow warning

AROME showindg less strong winds but gusting 85-90 km/h in the SW /S.

APERGE SW /S / SE perhaps again gusting 85-90 km/h, from early morning and blown over by around 14.00

WRF similar timing but not as strong.

HIRLAM 80-90 km/h gusts in the SW / S perhaps

ICON shows the center coming ashore up around Mayo in the early runs, the others keeping it further S coming ashore around Clare. ICON has been fairly consistent in the 9Z, 12Z and 15Z but the the 18Z rolling out now shows it bring the center further S coming ashore around Galway and it has eased off in the wind strengths to similar as the other models or perhaps slightly higher and has higher wind speeds crossing the Southern half of the country.

Will need to see the 18Z roll out to have a better idea.

12Z ECM showing similar to the ICON if not higher wind speeds I would think, quite strong on the coasts

ninebeanrows · 03-01-2018 10:40pm

0.25 degree 18z GFS, wouldn't write this one off just yet- a little more deepening and it will be a threatening system.

12-515UK.GIF?03-18

Meteorite58 · 03-01-2018 11:47pm

The AROME showing strong winds initially on the Kerry coast and quite blustery across the country through the morning and may become quite strong over some Eastern counties early afternoon before clearing into the Irish Sea perhaps? All moving along very quickly.

ninebeanrows · 03-01-2018 11:51pm

Pressure down to 990.7hPa at M6 buoy now.

plot_met.php?station=62095&meas=pres&uom=M&time_diff=0&time_label=GMT

ninebeanrows · 03-01-2018 11:55pm

The 18z Arpege rolling out has a much more compact structure and stronger core of winds than its predecessor.

arpegeuk-2-15-0.png?03-23

Soccarboy11 · 03-01-2018 11:57pm

So this may see an upgrade to Orange then?

squarecircles · 03-01-2018 11:57pm

Something brewing me thinks.

JanuarySnowstor · 03-01-2018 11:58pm

Starting to look like it could pack a punch alright. Perhaps an orange alert is warranted for exposed parts?

ninebeanrows · 03-01-2018 11:58pm

Would certainly consider extending the yellow to include much of Leinster if I was the MetE.

arpegeuk-2-18-0.png?03-23

Meteorite58 · 04-01-2018 12:01am

ARPEGEE 18Z (An upgrade on earlier runs ) showing some strong winds passing over the country . Isobars very tight . Deepening slightly.

munsterlegend · 04-01-2018 12:01am

Any update on the Friday morning system or perhaps that is for another thread?

aisling86 · 04-01-2018 12:04am

squarecircles wrote:

Something brewing me thinks.

I definitely think so, it's so still outside tonight in cork its weird.

pad199207 · 04-01-2018 12:11am

Kind of akin to Eleanor

Meteorite58 · 04-01-2018 12:16am

The 18Z WRF -NMM and GFS showing less strong winds, the 18Z ICON something like the other European models.

And look at these sneaky Lows showing up on the HIRLAM . Much further S on the French Models.

ninebeanrows · 04-01-2018 12:18am

EURO4 beginning to roll out, a little deeper and sharper than the 12z to this point.

Probably at its most threatening tomorrow as it clears into the Irish Sea around lunchtime...

squarecircles · 04-01-2018 12:22am

Latest from met eireann...

Met eireann mentioning that it will become extremely windy in Munster and south Leinster tonight,very windy, particularly in the south And west tomorrow with squalls.

munsterlegend · 04-01-2018 12:28am

squarecircles wrote: »

Latest from met eireann...

Met eireann mentioning that it will become extremely windy in Munster and south Leinster tonight,very windy, particularly in the south And west tomorrow with squalls.

Is that update in the last few minutes?

ninebeanrows · 04-01-2018 12:29am

Interesting cloud feature predicted over the midlands from the EURO4 tomorrow around 9am,...wrap around occlusion from low, that's where youd likely see the strongest winds...

ninebeanrows · 04-01-2018 12:35am

Last post from me for the evening is to update that M6 buoy is continuing to drop rapidly.

Now down to 988.1hPa @ 11pm.

plot_met.php?station=62095&meas=pres&uom=M&time_diff=0&time_label=GMT

squarecircles · 04-01-2018 12:40am

munsterlegend wrote: »

Is that update in the last few minutes?

I'm not sure when they did this update but it's different from the language they used previously during an earlier forecast.

Joanna Donnelly also said to keep in touch with forecasts after the 9 news.

Gaoth Laidir · 04-01-2018 12:57am

It's not really borne out in the 11 pm TAFs. There are these two warnings for Shannon and Cork for tomorrow morning but nothing spectacular.

EINN AD WRNG 01 VALID 040400/040900 SFC WIND WSW 20-25KT MAX 35-40 BECMG 0407/0409 NW 20-25 MAX 35-40 FCST =

EICK AD WRNG 01 VALID 040200/041000 SFC WIND WSW 25-30KT MAX 40-45 BECMG 0408/0410 NW 20-25 MAX 35-40 FCST =

Soccarboy11 · 04-01-2018 1:24am

https://twitter.com/FastnetLHouse

the wind gusts off fastnet look to be steadily increasing each update

ninebeanrows · 04-01-2018 1:34am

The system is deepening very rapidly, not to get carried away but M6 buoy down to 985.5hPa.

Visible dark stripe heading into cloud head now, a sign of rapid development.

PX2H0A5FE1PSZ

ninebeanrows · 04-01-2018 1:57am

The track also appears somewhat further north than HIRLAM/EC output. The system's centre is now clearly visible on the sat24 IR loop to the west of Ireland with rapid intensification underway. Could be a nasty surprise for some in the west come morning.

h-image.ashx?region=eu&time=201801040130&ir=True

h-image.ashx?region=eu&time=201801040130&ir=True

pad199207 · 04-01-2018 2:00am

Weathercheck wrote: »

The track also appears somewhat further north than HIRLAM/EC output. The system's centre is now clearly visible on the sat24 IR loop to the west of Ireland with rapid intensification underway. Could be a nasty surprise for some in the west come morning.

With respect and I love your updates WC but I thought the update on the M6 bouy was your last post of the evening.

:P

squarecircles · 04-01-2018 2:00am

Charges phone/iPad*

Xenji · 04-01-2018 2:01am

Weathercheck wrote: »

The track also appears somewhat further north than HIRLAM/EC output. The system's centre is now clearly visible on the sat24 IR loop to the west of Ireland with rapid intensification underway. Could be a nasty surprise for some in the west come morning.

We already had one nasty surprise this week :pac:

pad199207 · 04-01-2018 2:10am

Storm Fionn could be in the making off the west coast at the moment.

I fear could be much too late to name him and to get the alert out despite yellow warnings already in place.

squarecircles · 04-01-2018 2:29am

pad199207 wrote: »

Storm Fionn could be in the making off the west coast at the moment.

I fear could be much too late to name him and to get the alert out despite yellow warnings already in place.

Not the best of times either,early morning,people on the move,dark etc

I hope met eireann get a warning out if this developes into something nasty.

pad199207 · 04-01-2018 2:31am

THis was issued at 23:00

“West to southwest gale to storm force winds developing overnight on coasts from Howth Head to Roches Point to Slyne Head and on the south Irish Sea, veering west to northwest tomorrow morning and extending to remaining eastern coasts and all of the Irish Sea.”

Another potential wind-storm Thursday AM 4-1-18

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