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Another potential wind-storm Thursday AM 4-1-18

  • 03-01-2018 2:14pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    Very mixed guidance for a potential small low feature to move across Ireland overnight and through tomorrow morning.

    Perhaps now a good time to bookend the Storm Eleanor threat and move onto this?

    Some guidance outlined below.

    EURO4

    18010409_0306.gif

    ICON

    iconeu_uk1-2-24-0.png?03-13

    HIRLAM

    hirlamuk-2-27-0.png?03-10


    More to follow....


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 9,391 ✭✭✭ Oscar Bravo


    STATUS YELLOW

    Wind Warning for Munster, Carlow, Kilkenny, Wexford and Wicklow

    West to Southwest winds veering West to Northwest 55 to 65 km/hr gusts 90 to 110km/hr

    Issued:

    Wednesday 03 January 2018 12:00

    Valid:

    Thursday 04 January 2018 03:00 to Thursday 04 January 2018 13:00


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭ Iancar29


    If the position remains the same there could be issues for Dublin as it coincides with the high tide of 4.5m at 1pm tomorrow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    ICON a little further north again.

    It doesn't appear to be deepening rapidly as it crosses the country but does show steady enough deepening as it exits into the Irish Sea.

    iconeu_uk1-2-24-0.png?03-16


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    ICON winds
    iconeu_uk1-11-22-0.png?03-16


    iconeu_uk1-11-26-0.png?03-16


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭ squarecircles


    Evelyn Cusack on Mid west radio news said winds concentrated in the south west quadrant tonight but there was uncertainty over the track,also another small wind event possible tomorrow.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    Not to be taken literally as GFS does not have the resolution even at 0.25 degree to display this type of system- but it has moved it north compared to it's previous run.

    21-515UK.GIF?03-12


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,440 ✭✭✭ pad199207


    What a volatile period of weather we are in!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭ squarecircles


    pad199207 wrote: »
    What a volatile period of weather we are in!

    It's no wonder given the temperatures on the east coast of America,a low of -22 forecast for the Boston area Friday night.

    The manky mild old north Atlantic doesn't like this pouring out over it at all,at all.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    An elongated- messy looking pressure field on the latest HIRLAM

    hirlamuk-2-21-0.png?03-16



    but then another 'feature' moves in overnight!

    hirlamuk-2-36-0.png?03-17


  • Registered Users Posts: 579 Soccarboy11


    An elongated- messy looking pressure field on the latest HIRLAM

    hirlamuk-2-21-0.png?03-16



    but then another 'feature' moves in overnight!

    hirlamuk-2-36-0.png?03-17

    the isobars look very tight over the south there, that relates to some pretty strong winds i believe right?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,951 ✭✭✭ munsterlegend


    An elongated- messy looking pressure field on the latest HIRLAM


    The second one Friday morning looks rather severe.


  • Registered Users Posts: 401 ✭✭ RoisinD


    Not sure about another wind storm. Here in NW Clare the winds have been ever present since yesterday, there seems to be no let up


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 240 ✭✭ fraxinus1


    Very quiet in here.... always a sign that forecasts are gone belly up and people are fed up. I see Met eireann changed their wording in their forecasts this afternoon. Just gales now. I think we have had our weather excitement for now.... the cold spell that was forecasted to begin this weekend has been seriously downgraded to a non event so it’s back to rain and strong breezes for next week.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭ squarecircles


    fraxinus1 wrote: »
    Very quiet in here.... always a sign that forecasts are gone belly up and people are fed up. I see Met eireann changed their wording in their forecasts this afternoon. Just gales now. I think we have had our weather excitement for now.... the cold spell that was forecasted to begin this weekend has been seriously downgraded to a non event so it’s back to rain and strong breezes for next week.

    Cheer up frax,you never know where a surprise storm may pop out of,or an unexpected cold snap,people are just taking a break after all the exciting weather we've been having,I know I am :) I'm shattered

    So chin up :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,664 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    Forecasts change, that's why they're called forecasts and not definites :)

    Also, I see no indication that next weeks cold spells gone belly up! How long will you continue to change things to suit your narrative?

    I think we're all sick to the bone of the constant complaining of Met Eireann on all threads on here, how about we discuss the merit of their forecasts in the appropriate thread and leave these ones for the weather without constant pollution?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 240 ✭✭ fraxinus1


    Cheer up frax,you never know where a surprise storm may pop out of,or an unexpected cold snap,people are just taking a break after all the exciting weather we've been having,I know I am :) I'm shattered

    So chin up :)

    I’m not as cheerful or as optimistic as many of you on here. I try to be. I dislike January and the prospect of snow is a good distraction but it rarely materializes.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    EURO4 has the system coming ashore around 6am and exiting the east coast around noon. However, the system doesn't appear to be deepening as it passes through.

    18010406_0312.gif

    18010412_0312.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,816 ✭✭✭ redsteveireland


    Key phrases/words to look out for which will make sure you don't take every word here as exactly how an event will pan out, but approach every event as a constantly developing situation.

    "Potential wind-storm.."
    "Mixed guidance.."
    "Potential small low..."
    "Possible.."
    "Could be..."
    "Uncertainty. ."

    If people bear this in mind they might not be so quick to have a dig at forecasters, amateur or otherwise.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,191 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Slightly off topic but here are two pages from Tim Vasquez' Weather Forecasting Red Book (2006) that contain handy forecasting tips for surface lows, including the Rosenbloom Rule. I highly recommend picking up his books.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Slightly off topic but here are two pages from Tim Vasquez' Weather Forecasting Red Book (2006) that contain handy forecasting tips for surface lows, including the Rosenbloom Rule. I highly recommend picking up his books.

    Thanks for that, I'm always up for recommendations on weather books because let's just say I'm not the best at searching for them.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,450 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ICON shows strong winds in the Orange warning category coming into the SW / W and crossing the country in perhaps a yellow warning

    AROME showindg less strong winds but gusting 85-90 km/h in the SW /S.

    APERGE SW /S / SE perhaps again gusting 85-90 km/h, from early morning and blown over by around 14.00

    WRF similar timing but not as strong.

    HIRLAM 80-90 km/h gusts in the SW / S perhaps

    ICON shows the center coming ashore up around Mayo in the early runs, the others keeping it further S coming ashore around Clare. ICON has been fairly consistent in the 9Z, 12Z and 15Z but the the 18Z rolling out now shows it bring the center further S coming ashore around Galway and it has eased off in the wind strengths to similar as the other models or perhaps slightly higher and has higher wind speeds crossing the Southern half of the country.

    Will need to see the 18Z roll out to have a better idea.

    12Z ECM showing similar to the ICON if not higher wind speeds I would think, quite strong on the coasts

    TXVA57p.png

    SPRxoUa.png


    JLoThOx.png

    ctcidZO.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    0.25 degree 18z GFS, wouldn't write this one off just yet- a little more deepening and it will be a threatening system.

    12-515UK.GIF?03-18


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,450 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    The AROME showing strong winds initially on the Kerry coast and quite blustery across the country through the morning and may become quite strong over some Eastern counties early afternoon before clearing into the Irish Sea perhaps? All moving along very quickly.

    tempresult_mnc0.gif

    tempresult_cph7.gif


    aromehd-11-18-1_vru4.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    Pressure down to 990.7hPa at M6 buoy now.

    plot_met.php?station=62095&meas=pres&uom=M&time_diff=0&time_label=GMT


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    The 18z Arpege rolling out has a much more compact structure and stronger core of winds than its predecessor.

    arpegeuk-2-15-0.png?03-23

    arpegeuk-11-15-0.png?03-23


  • Registered Users Posts: 579 Soccarboy11


    So this may see an upgrade to Orange then?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭ squarecircles


    Something brewing me thinks.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    Starting to look like it could pack a punch alright. Perhaps an orange alert is warranted for exposed parts?


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    Would certainly consider extending the yellow to include much of Leinster if I was the MetE.

    arpegeuk-2-18-0.png?03-23


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,450 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    tMwyVYq.png?1

    ARPEGEE 18Z (An upgrade on earlier runs ) showing some strong winds passing over the country . Isobars very tight . Deepening slightly.


    tempresult_icx2.gif

    tempresult_ugl8.gif


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