Share Picks 2018

b4bmm · 27-12-2017 5:20am #1

Tawana resources. TAW Asx Lithium player. Tipped this a while back when it was mid 20s. Approaching 50c now and has a long way to run. Way undervalued compared to peers. Best mangement in the lithium space. Big year ahead.

Nzuri copper. NZC, Asx cobalt/copper play. Being buying this from high teens and it ran hard before I could get all I wanted. It’s low 30s now which is similar to my average buy in price. Very good buy at this level. Lowest capital cost cobalt play on the asx. Located in Congo. Strong Chinese partners. Big exploration upside. This will go hard in 2018 is way undervalued compare to poor grade high capex asx cobalt peers. Management owns over 50% of compnay extremely tight register. Feasibility study already proven robust economics for the project now optimatstion studies being carried out which will take the NPV to a whole new level and the SP along with it hopefully. This is by far the best cobalt play on the asx right now imo.

Wish everyone a prosperous 2018

crushproof · 28-12-2017 5:32pm

Jumped into Taw earlier this year at .33c, a bit behind some of the b4bmm & folk here but the long term gains look to be fantastic and I'm looking forward to the rewards. There is some great money to be made on the ASX in 2018.

daheff · 29-12-2017 12:09pm

https://www.bloomberg.com/features/companies-to-watch-2018/

bloomberg 50 to watch.

Personally have small holding in BASF

neris · 30-12-2017 4:49pm

daheff wrote: »

https://www.bloomberg.com/features/companies-to-watch-2018/

bloomberg 50 to watch.

Personally have small holding in BASF

Interesting to see Fannie Mae & Freddie mac on that list. Was doing a stock screener on otc few days ago and they both popped up under the parameters I'd set.

Shauny2010 · 31-12-2017 10:58am

Any opinions on Banking stocks for 2018. Will we see a return to lofty share prices and glossy dividents again?

daheff · 31-12-2017 5:11pm

Shauny2010 wrote: »

Any opinions on Banking stocks for 2018. Will we see a return to lofty share prices and glossy dividents again?

I'm a fan of banking stocks (not just irish)...can see a better year next year. More M&A, more FX (trump taxes) and more disposable income for people(more investment income).

also rising interest rates will add to profits for banks.

Cute Hoor · 31-12-2017 6:06pm

Shauny2010 wrote: »

Any opinions on Banking stocks for 2018. Will we see a return to lofty share prices and glossy dividents again?

Banco Santander (Current Price €5.48), hasn't made a loss in it's 200 year history, continued to pay dividends throughout the financial crisis, gifted Banco Popular by the EU authorities for €1 in June because they deemed it likely to fail, they have already sold off a Banco Popular subsidiary TotalBank for $528m, paying around 5% dividend.

Would hope the SP increases by 10% at some stage during the year, the dividend will help while you're waiting.

Mooooo · 31-12-2017 7:18pm

daheff wrote: »

https://www.bloomberg.com/features/companies-to-watch-2018/

bloomberg 50 to watch.

Personally have small holding in BASF

Will the fire in Germany effect it much?

daheff · 31-12-2017 11:02pm

Mooooo wrote: »

Will the fire in Germany effect it much?

Yes... But I think mostly priced in already

Quick resumption of production/source other supplies & could see a bounce

Thargor · 02-01-2018 1:19am

b4bmm wrote: »

Tawana resources. TAW Asx Lithium player. Tipped this a while back when it was mid 20s. Approaching 50c now and has a long way to run. Way undervalued compared to peers. Best mangement in the lithium space. Big year ahead.

Nzuri copper. NZC, Asx cobalt/copper play. Being buying this from high teens and it ran hard before I could get all I wanted. It’s low 30s now which is similar to my average buy in price. Very good buy at this level. Lowest capital cost cobalt play on the asx. Located in Congo. Strong Chinese partners. Big exploration upside. This will go hard in 2018 is way undervalued compare to poor grade high capex asx cobalt peers. Management owns over 50% of compnay extremely tight register. Feasibility study already proven robust economics for the project now optimatstion studies being carried out which will take the NPV to a whole new level and the SP along with it hopefully. This is by far the best cobalt play on the asx right now imo.

Wish everyone a prosperous 2018

Same to you and everyone else.

TAW was a great tip, just hit 50c there, rare to get an opportunity to get in ahead of the crowd on a share like them and PLS.

b4bmm · 02-01-2018 1:49am

Thargor wrote: »

Same to you and everyone else.

TAW was a great tip, just hit 50c there, rare to get an opportunity to get in ahead of the crowd on a share like them and PLS.

Ya a great start to the new year.
Tawana Up 12% as I type.

Nzuri up 4.5% as I write.
Only $80M MC.
Going through a consolidation phase and catching its breath at the moment. It will appreciate aggressively on a sniff of good news.

garrettod · 02-01-2018 3:35am

Hi,

How do acquisition and sale costs compare for buying on the Australian exchange, compared with say buying Irish or UK equities ?

Also, how do they treat dividends for tax purposes (ie is there withholding tax for non-residents etc.) ?

Many thanks

b4bmm · 02-01-2018 8:10am

garrettod wrote: »

Hi,

How do acquisition and sale costs compare for buying on the Australian exchange, compared with say buying Irish or UK equities ?

Also, how do they treat dividends for tax purposes (ie is there withholding tax for non-residents etc.) ?

Many thanks

All I know is irish brokers are a total rip off compared to peers internationally. At least there were when I checked last a few years ago. But what else would you expect. Others here can comment better than me regarding irish costs but for my Australian brokerage you pay trade fee of $20 up to $10,000 trade value $30 up to $20,000 trade value and so on from there.

Yes as far as I’m aware there is withholding tax for non residents on dividends. I think it’s 30% and maybe this can be mitigated through a DTA. Here it is if you want to look into more depth

https://www.revenue.ie/en/tax-professionals/tax-agreements/double-taxation-treaties/a/australia.pdf

garrettod · 02-01-2018 2:31pm

Thanks b4bmm,

Yes, I'm wondering about charges through Irish brokers - had a quick look at my own, but can't find anything relevant at first glance.

LG1234 · 02-01-2018 2:39pm

garrettod wrote: »

Thanks b4bmm,

Yes, I'm wondering about charges through Irish brokers - had a quick look at my own, but can't find anything relevant at first glance.

Degiro charge 10 euro per transaction to buy on the ASX

plasmin · 02-01-2018 3:12pm

Shares like NZC, PLS are also listed on Frankfurt exchange. Any thoughts on buying on FRA V ASX?

Thanks in advance

b4bmm · 02-01-2018 3:51pm

LG1234 wrote: »

Degiro charge 10 euro per transaction to buy on the ASX

Im surprised it doesn’t go on value.
If it’s €10 flat thats very competitive and miles better than when I checked last time a few years ago. Not sure if I checked Degiro at the time though.

ct5amr2ig1nfhp · 02-01-2018 4:40pm

Minor amendment to above. DeGiro fees for the ASX €10.00 + 0.05% (e.g. 1,000 EUR would cost EUR 10.50)

FYI DeGiro appear to have added an 'estimated cost' on the final screen before you buy.

b4bmm · 02-01-2018 7:32pm

Lorelei Fancy Lifeguard wrote: »

Minor amendment to above. DeGiro fees for the ASX €10.00 + 0.05% (e.g. 1,000 EUR would cost EUR 10.50)

FYI DeGiro appear to have added an 'estimated cost' on the final screen before you buy.

That’s more like it. Very expensive.

thereality · 02-01-2018 9:14pm

I think Bank of Ireland is a value stock. The new CEO should be good at reforming their IT systems which were supposed to be scheduled for a pricey upgraded. It is one of the most profitable retail banks in Europe. The Irish mortgage market is extremely uncompetitive and should offer good returns to shareholders. It is important to note, that even during the banking meltdown from 2011-2015. BOI probably could have gotten away without a bailout. Even today, their loan books are pretty good condition. They were a prudent lender during the boom. Even at the moment, they are being prudent with their lending in the overheating UK property market

I think Green REIT has a fair bit of upside. They assets were valued at 166c per share back in June 2017. They are likely considerable more now if you look at the fact that the new NTMA building in IFSC, which is a spec similar to most of their buildings sold with a yield of 3.95%. Greens buildings are valued at a yield of 5%. So they could be sold tomorrow for a really decent price

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/german-investor-fund-offers-over-160m-for-dublin-docklands-office-block-1.3312826

If you consider IPUT, which as similar quality assets to them(a lot more retail though) sales for a premium over their asset price and Green is selling for about a 10% discount on its asset price. It appears to be a decently valued stock

http://edition.pagesuite-professional.co.uk/html5/reader/production/default.aspx?pubname=&edid=c755c396-6309-49c5-8db1-5eca08914e27

Another stock I like is Synchrony Financial. It is a store credit card provider in the US, which over 40% of the store card market. It provides the store cards for Walmart, Lowes etc. AFAIK it is a spin off of GE. This stock caught my attention as Warren Buffet has just taken a new holding in it. Store cards tend to have customers with lower credit than more premium banks like Chase(SF has about 25% of their customers with below average credit ratings versus about 5% in Chase). So there is a risk of more delinquencies if the US economy sours. Although they have been proactively trying to improve the creditworthiness of their customer base in the last decade.

IMO it is a classic long term Berkshire Hathaway stock. It is a company that has a decent level of market dominance, it offers something unique and it has been steadily growing. Their secret sauce is that everytime you use their card, the retailer can track the sales of customers which they can't do with a regular card. So retailers won't be a worry to get rid of their store cards.

Dardania · 02-01-2018 10:16pm

Very good ideas there thereality - might take a punt or two on BOI and Synchrony Financial - very solid reasoning. Any risk that the continued drip feed IPO of AIB might take from BOI?

I’m long term investor in Green REIT since their IPO - got in at 1.05. Seem to be very promising - particularly with Brexit driving demand for office space.

thereality · 02-01-2018 11:41pm

Dardania wrote: »

Very good ideas there thereality - might take a punt or two on BOI and Synchrony Financial - very solid reasoning. Any risk that the continued drip feed IPO of AIB might take from BOI?

I’m long term investor in Green REIT since their IPO - got in at 1.05. Seem to be very promising - particularly with Brexit driving demand for office space.

IMO AIB and BOI are very different banks. BOI never had the meltdown that AIB experienced, so they are in a different mindset. While AIB is still trying to manage their existing problematic loans. BOI are trying to grow their loan book. AIB is obviously trying to grow their loan book too. But it is easier to grow your business, when you aren't focusing on problematic loans

Another thing about BOI is the fact they don't have a significant state shareholder to the same extent as AIB. Some people are of the opinion, banks are too slow to repossess properties here due to the state being a significant shareholder. It kinda makes sense. AIB repossessing a family home, puts a family on the street that the state has to house. It looks bad that a state owned back is putting people on the street. It appears some of the banks (I don't know AIB does it), just sell on the loan to a vulture fund to call it in. They are taking some of the value off the table.

BOI on the other hand is buying subprime loan books and trying to find value in them! BOI is seeing value in things other banks refuse to engage in. I feel BOI is an Irish Bank with balls.

There are reports that the ECB wants banks to sell off loan books of loans that were in default and now good, as they are still seen as bad loans in the eyes of the ECB. If that is the case, banks like PTSB will struggle. AIB might have an issue. Although I don't know to what extent. Although BOI doesn't have that issue

I don't know how much longer the rally for Green REIT can continue. I think there is another year or so in it. But if the ECB starts hiking rates, they will be a less attractive investment. That is a while away

butrasgali · 03-01-2018 3:55am

Any opinions on valeant shares at the moment..vrx

the goon · 04-01-2018 8:13pm

b4bmm wrote: »

Tawana resources. TAW Asx Lithium player. Tipped this a while back when it was mid 20s. Approaching 50c now and has a long way to run. Way undervalued compared to peers. Best mangement in the lithium space. Big year ahead.

Nzuri copper. NZC, Asx cobalt/copper play. Being buying this from high teens and it ran hard before I could get all I wanted. It’s low 30s now which is similar to my average buy in price. Very good buy at this level. Lowest capital cost cobalt play on the asx. Located in Congo. Strong Chinese partners. Big exploration upside. This will go hard in 2018 is way undervalued compare to poor grade high capex asx cobalt peers. Management owns over 50% of compnay extremely tight register. Feasibility study already proven robust economics for the project now optimatstion studies being carried out which will take the NPV to a whole new level and the SP along with it hopefully. This is by far the best cobalt play on the asx right now imo.

Wish everyone a prosperous 2018

Apologies in advance for a stupid question but am complete novice with a keen interest but can I ask, what is the difference between buying Tawana Resources ASX $0.51 and Tawana Resources as on the Frankfurt exchange at €0.35?

Any help appreciated and to keep on topic, if anyone can tell if its possible to buy off the KOSDAQ that would be great. Dongkuk S&C manufacture towers for wind turbines and have strong growth year on year. Would expect this to continue and expansion into new markets.

crushproof · 04-01-2018 9:20pm

the goon wrote: »

Apologies in advance for a stupid question but am complete novice with a keen interest but can I ask, what is the difference between buying Tawana Resources ASX $0.51 and Tawana Resources as on the Frankfurt exchange at €0.35?

I actually just realised the other day you could buy via Frankfurt rather than the ASX. I originally purchased TAW on the ASX however it does appear that a large number of ASX firms have listed on Frankfurt also. It is €10 to trade on the ASX but €2 to trade on Frankfurt... so I imagine it is more worthwhile

Cute Hoor · 05-01-2018 12:47am

crushproof wrote: »

I actually just realised the other day you could buy via Frankfurt rather than the ASX. I originally purchased TAW on the ASX however it does appear that a large number of ASX firms have listed on Frankfurt also. It is €10 to trade on the ASX but €2 to trade on Frankfurt... so I imagine it is more worthwhile

Really low volume (from what I can see ) on Frankfurt, might be difficult to buy and sell

Cute Hoor · 05-01-2018 8:59am

One rollercoaster ride yesterday for CNET, finished up 700% on the day, up 920% at one stage, 82.5m shares traded (12.4m shares outstanding, 7.6m public float), normally averages 270k traded per day.

Prezatch · 05-01-2018 9:05am

crushproof wrote: »

I actually just realised the other day you could buy via Frankfurt rather than the ASX. I originally purchased TAW on the ASX however it does appear that a large number of ASX firms have listed on Frankfurt also. It is €10 to trade on the ASX but €2 to trade on Frankfurt... so I imagine it is more worthwhile

Lower liquidity = worse bid/ask spreads so you would probably end up getting stung a lot worse than the 8 euro difference, depending on the size of your trades.

beertons · 05-01-2018 9:42am

Cute Hoor wrote: »

One rollercoaster ride yesterday for CNET, finished up 700% on the day, up 920% at one stage, 82.5m shares traded (12.4m shares outstanding, 7.6m public float), normally averages 270k traded per day.

Wow.

socorobo · 05-01-2018 1:47pm

Prezatch wrote: »

Lower liquidity = worse bid/ask spreads so you would probably end up getting stung a lot worse than the 8 euro difference, depending on the size of your trades.

So with TAW for instance could there be a situation where you simply couldn’t offload shares? Or assuming the share price continues to rise should it be okay?

Prezatch · 05-01-2018 2:30pm

You'd have no problem selling, but the price you'd get or have to drop down to could be inferior when translated to AUD and you compare to what you could have gotten if sold on the ASX due to much greater volumes flowing through it, being the primary exchange for this aussie share.

littlevillage · 05-01-2018 10:42pm

Dardania wrote: »

Very good ideas there thereality - might take a punt or two on BOI and Synchrony Financial - very solid reasoning. Any risk that the continued drip feed IPO of AIB might take from BOI?

I’m long term investor in Green REIT since their IPO - got in at 1.05. Seem to be very promising - particularly with Brexit driving demand for office space.

Bank of Ireland Share price flying at the moment, hoping to get on board but waiting for it to maybe pause and slip back a bit and then I'll jump on.

Bought some Green Reit today @€;1.554 hope I'm not late to the party? :rolleyes:

A few things about it attract me.

- Commercial rents are only going one direction in Ireland and will keep going that way for some time into the future, so Green's future income is gauranteed.
- Its got very high Asset value backing its share price, NBV is at .89. and these assets are getting more and more valuable and thus making the share price seem cheap, as they go up.
- and add to all that the fact that Green give about a 3% dividend per year.

LG1234 · 07-01-2018 12:51am

My picks for 2018:

TAW - like most other people on this forum! Got in at 31c a share so very happy with the return so far and feel it has a long way to go. Hoping this will be at east $1 by the year end of the year

PLS - also got that tip here. Very happy with the return so far

BOI - holding these since April last year and they were a constant red on my portfolio, I was going to sell but the share price has been flying ahead the last few weeks so I'm happy to hold

Cap-xx - got in around this time last year when it was 7p a share, then got in again at 11p and 13p. It rose to 17p at one stage but has dropped back down to 14p due to lack of news. News could come any day now and send it flying back up. I think they're a very good company with bags of potential. I'm hoping this will be a big year for Cap-x and I'm hoping to see it at around 25p a share by the end of the year.

Dalata Hotel group - I love this share. I'm up about 20% since I got in during the summer. Demand for hotel rooms in Ireland is only going to increase this year.

Mastercard - I got in at $1.10 a share around March last year. Now at €1.48 a share and still rising every week. I thought the rise of crypto would of put a stop to rises but it hasn't. I'm not going to accumulate anymore but I'm going to hold what I have.

cork93 · 07-01-2018 1:41am

littlevillage wrote: »

Bank of Ireland Share price flying at the moment, hoping to get on board but waiting for it to maybe pause and slip back a bit and then I'll jump on.

Bought some Green Reit today @€;1.554 hope I'm not late to the party? :rolleyes:

A few things about it attract me.

- Commercial rents are only going one direction in Ireland and will keep going that way for some time into the future, so Green's future income is gauranteed.
- Its got very high Asset value backing its share price, NBV is at .89. and these assets are getting more and more valuable and thus making the share price seem cheap, as they go up.
- and add to all that the fact that Green give about a 3% dividend per year.

I would be careful with Green REIT at current valuation. I cashed out a couple months ago @1.53.

The rate of commercial rate increases is likely to decrease significantly as more supply comes on board this year.

Yes underlying asset valuation is high but this is merely a number on paper which has been highly inflated in recent years. As this is a REIT I would focus more on the future cash flows are how much will be returned to shareholders.

The final straw for me was the amount of compensation given to management when compared with actual rental income. The "gains" to date are largely based on revaluation of existing assets.

It's probably not the worst investment out there but I don't see much upside potential and there's a risk of getting hit in general market downturn.

Just my 2 cents.

HowItsMade · 07-01-2018 4:07pm

Good time to get into Paddy Power Betfair shares at the minute.

Companies merged in 2016 with a surge in price settling down in 2017 which was up and down.

New CEO is taking the reins tomorrow, and with the World Cup in the summer and increasing gate sales and prize money at almost all the big race tracks it will be a welcomed change.

There's also increasing pushes for review of regulating and legalizing gambling in the states as the black market for gambling now amounts to circa 2 billion/annum.

PPB have the strongest market share of any UK player stateside with a fully regulated exchange in New Jersey and they've recently acquired the Fantasy Games Player "Draft" not to be confused with DraftKings the market leader.

No guarantees this will happen this year though, but with everything else going on in 2018 it should be a good year.

PRICE (EUR)
100.30

OwlsZat · 07-01-2018 7:40pm

HowItsMade wrote: »

Good time to get into Paddy Power Betfair shares at the minute.

Companies merged in 2016 with a surge in price settling down in 2017 which was up and down.

New CEO is taking the reins tomorrow, and with the World Cup in the summer and increasing gate sales and prize money at almost all the big race tracks it will be a welcomed change.

There's also increasing pushes for review of regulating and legalizing gambling in the states as the black market for gambling now amounts to circa 2 billion/annum.

PPB have the strongest market share of any UK player stateside with a fully regulated exchange in New Jersey and they've recently acquired the Fantasy Games Player "Draft" not to be confused with DraftKings the market leader.

No guarantees this will happen this year though, but with everything else going on in 2018 it should be a good year.

PRICE (EUR)
100.30

There is talk to increased gambling taxes and legislation changes in a number of there too markets. Also I'd have concern for why exactly the hugely successful as Betfair CEO has walked away. Can you shed any light on concerns?

Thargor · 08-01-2018 12:37am

TAW is just unstoppable these days, will we see a dollar in 2018?

littlevillage · 09-01-2018 10:16am

cork93 wrote: »

I would be careful with Green REIT at current valuation. I cashed out a couple months ago @1.53.

The rate of commercial rate increases is likely to decrease significantly as more supply comes on board this year.

Yes underlying asset valuation is high but this is merely a number on paper which has been highly inflated in recent years. As this is a REIT I would focus more on the future cash flows are how much will be returned to shareholders.

The final straw for me was the amount of compensation given to management when compared with actual rental income. The "gains" to date are largely based on revaluation of existing assets.

It's probably not the worst investment out there but I don't see much upside potential and there's a risk of getting hit in general market downturn.

Just my 2 cents.

Thanks for your feedback Cork93. Like I mentioned, I hope I'm not late to the party on Green Reit? the share price might not have any huge gains left in it, but its still a solid property play and as long as property in Ireland is flying it will keep creeping up. (For example, up 4% since I bought in last week). But as soon as the property market takes a wobble though, I'll be getting out ....FAST!!!

beertons · 09-01-2018 11:05am

My pilbarra holding is in Frankfurt, just noticed it after it was mentioned here. It'd make no sense selling selling them, and buying on the ASX. Right?

res ipsa · 09-01-2018 1:39pm

My pick is US listed MOMO @ $27.94
Hoping for some MOMentum with this one.

ct5amr2ig1nfhp · 10-01-2018 11:34am

Glanbia dipped below 14 (currently 13.84), might be worthy of another look.

roosterman71 · 10-01-2018 12:59pm

On DeGiro, when I select TAW shares from ASX, there is no data (historical or otherwise) being displayed. Is that normal?

ct5amr2ig1nfhp · 10-01-2018 1:04pm

Yes that is normal. DeGiro do not list data from the ASX, however you can still buy shares from the ASX.

You will have to source the data from another site. Google Finance, Yahoo Finance, HotCopper, Bloomberg, MarketWatch etc. You will have to pay to get live data from the ASX (and it's not cheap). I don't believe there is a free source of ASX real-time data.

roosterman71 wrote: »

On DeGiro, when I select TAW shares from ASX, there is no data (historical or otherwise) being displayed. Is that normal?

ball ox · 10-01-2018 1:04pm

roosterman71 wrote: »

On DeGiro, when I select TAW shares from ASX, there is no data (historical or otherwise) being displayed. Is that normal?

Try the 'interactive graph' button located on the top right of the embedded graph. I often find that this works when the embedded graph is not showing up.

Edit: sorry, just spotted you meant on the Aussie exchange

scheister · 10-01-2018 4:45pm

I note in relation to the REITs Deutsche Bank initiated analyst coverage Green Reit and Hibernia Reit

Deutsche has given a target price of €1.85 to Green Reit, which is currently trading around €1.63, and a target price of €1.65 to Hibernia Reit, which is currently trading around €1.53.

b4bmm · 11-01-2018 8:35am

Nzuri building up a head of steam.
Plenty more left in the tank.

ftse100 · 12-01-2018 12:10am

res ipsa wrote: »

My pick is US listed MOMO @ $27.94
Hoping for some MOMentum with this one.

Watch the strong euro doesn't eat away any gains this year...

Shauny2010 · 12-01-2018 1:55am

ftse100 wrote: »

Watch the strong euro doesn't eat away any gains this year...

The Dollar is taking a right hammering lately, and it looks set to be the theme of 2018 too

Underground · 12-01-2018 11:27am

Decided to buy some Glanbia shares @ €13.59.

ct5amr2ig1nfhp · 12-01-2018 11:38am

It is? EUR/USD has been hovering 1.18 for the last 6 months. Trend certainly looks like EUR will strengthen over the next few months.

Shauny2010 wrote: »

The Dollar is taking a right hammering lately, and it looks set to be the theme of 2018 too

cute geoge · 12-01-2018 12:46pm

Underground wrote: »

Decided to buy some Glanbia shares @ €13.59.

Why are glanbia taking such a hammering lately????

Share Picks 2018

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