47.9% of NI would back a United Ireland in the event of a 'hard Brexit'

Avatar MIA · 10-12-2017 10:58am

FrancieBrady wrote: »

My dad left the north in the 50's due to the chronic unemployment there.
In the 80's and 90's NI had similar unemployment rates to Wales and the North of England.
The lack of opportunity for some in education and employment and stagnation in nationalist and catholic areas was a contributor to the conflict.

Harland and wolff being a good example. A Catholic worker was rare. But, the Catholic's got the last laugh. They concentrated on educating their children as the traditional manufacturing jobs were not a good prospect. Now, for example, the legal profession is dominated by Catholics.

Arguably the most affected by NI's early policies are the working class Protestants living in NI today.

Professor Moriarty · 10-12-2017 12:25pm

Avatar MIA wrote: »

Harland and wolff being a good example. A Catholic worker was rare. But, the Catholic's got the last laugh. They concentrated on educating their children as the traditional manufacturing jobs were not a good prospect. Now, for example, the legal profession is dominated by Catholics.

Arguably the most affected by NI's early policies are the working class Protestants living in NI today.

As you say that, this article from the Belfast Telegraph last January notes that employment rates between Catholic and Protestants are now level for the first time. This is in marked contrast to employment rates thirty years ago when Catholics were twice as likely to be unemployed. Interestingly, Protestant youth unemployment is higher (24%) than Catholic (18%).

Avatar MIA · 10-12-2017 12:37pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

As you say that, this article from the Belfast Telegraph last January notes that employment rates between Catholic and Protestants are now level for the first time. This is in marked contrast to employment rates thirty years ago when Catholics were twice as likely to be unemployed. Interestingly, Protestant youth unemployment is higher (24%) than Catholic (18%).

And here's the thing, as Catholics become more successful, and more influential in their society, it becomes a drag on change. Why leave for a UI? Brexit is one such change agent though.

Things are changing for unionism. They are going to be a minority/less influential in their 6 counties regardless of the constitutional question.

Professor Moriarty · 10-12-2017 12:44pm

Avatar MIA wrote: »

And here's the thing, as Catholics become more successful, and more influential in their society, it becomes a drag on change. Why leave for a UI? Brexit is one such change agent though.

Things are changing for unionism. They are going to be a minority/less influential in their 6 counties regardless of the constitutional question.

The EU had begun to provide a gradual erosion of nationalism as people began to identify with being European. Now identity politics has been given a lifeline by Brexit. This has meant that DUP politicians have started to bang the drum again. Wouldn't surprise me to hear Sammy come out with Never, Never, Never.

Avatar MIA · 10-12-2017 1:34pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The EU had begun to provide a gradual erosion of nationalism as people began to identify with being European.

All the sweeter as it was DUP backed. They couldn't resist the thought of moving the UK away from Ireland. The law of unintended purposes has bitten them in the bum. :pac:

Professor Moriarty · 10-12-2017 1:45pm

Avatar MIA wrote: »

All the sweeter as it was DUP backed. They couldn't resist the thought of moving the UK away from Ireland. The law of unintended purposes has bitten them in the bum. :pac:

Exactly. It's reality time. The UK will continue to break up as the SNP seize the Border Deal opportunity to push for independence (even Scottish Tories are out of step with May's government). As the UK begins to fragment further, English MPs won't want to subsidise NI, especially if the economy takes a hit after Brexit.

So where will they go? Continue to push for unity with a country that doesn't want them? Look to form a country with Scotland? An independent country outside the EU? A protectorate under EU rule?

The union is dying and if the DUP didn't have May by the short and curlies they would have been thrown under the bus. As soon as the numbers change in the commons, they'll see how much the Little Englanders care about them.

LoughNeagh2017 · 14-12-2017 11:01pm

I would vote yes in a referendum but I wouldn't lose sleep when it fails as the people in south largely don't want us, they are a bit embarrassed of us, even regarding celebrities, they are always quick to point out that someone is Northern Irish instead of Irish, if that is what being a modern Irish person is about then I don't want anything to do with it, I will continue to call myself an Ulsterman and accept whatever currency by rancid employers give me in these miserable islands. Hopefully in the afterlife we don't have to be near, unionists, GB or southerners, if we do then i'd rather go to hell, I think God has punished us enough having to share these islands with these people, the term spit roasted comes to mind.

AnGaelach · 16-12-2017 4:24pm

Red_Wake wrote: »

If they can't get over 50% support for a UI in the event of a hard Brexit, I don't know what it would take to get that magic 50%+1.

I assume hard brexit swells support for a UI significantly though, I may be wrong though.

It's 47.9% of those polled who said they would vote, not that 52% would vote against unification. There was 6-7% who didn't give an opinion. I think those who said they'd vote against it was closer to like 43-44%. If we ignore the "don't know" section, the referendum looks more like a 51-49% split.

My numbers could be off, obviously, and we don't know what the turnout would actually be among each age cohort (not only are the youngest group the most in favour of a United Ireland, but young Catholics are more supportive of unification than older Catholic groups - their failure to turn out could cause the referendum to be defeated or could carry it over the line).

It is very good news for nationalists like myself though. After years of seeing moderates saying they wouldn't back a UI now, they're coming out to say they certainly would.

murphaph · 16-12-2017 4:47pm

LoughNeagh2017 wrote: »

I would vote yes in a referendum but I wouldn't lose sleep when it fails as the people in south largely don't want us, they are a bit embarrassed of us, even regarding celebrities, they are always quick to point out that someone is Northern Irish instead of Irish, if that is what being a modern Irish person is about then I don't want anything to do with it, I will continue to call myself an Ulsterman and accept whatever currency by rancid employers give me in these miserable islands. Hopefully in the afterlife we don't have to be near, unionists, GB or southerners, if we do then i'd rather go to hell, I think God has punished us enough having to share these islands with these people, the term spit roasted comes to mind.

I guess your more Northern Irish then than Irish. That's perfectly valid. You could agitate for independence if you don't want to be part of the UK or Ireland.

Junkyard Tom · 17-12-2017 2:52am

LoughNeagh2017 wrote: »

I would vote yes in a referendum but I wouldn't lose sleep when it fails as the people in south largely don't want us, they are a bit embarrassed of us, even regarding celebrities, they are always quick to point out that someone is Northern Irish instead of Irish.

That's not true really. This fella makes no secret of his Irish nationalism/republicanism and is largely despised by the 'northern Irish' who support NI football team.

Yet, "It’s the Irish public voting for me," McClean said.

Jayop · 17-12-2017 3:30pm

6 of the last 8 spoty have been from the north. That's voted by the irish public so is telling of the actual publics view as opposed to the view of the media.

An Ciarraioch · 17-12-2017 4:49pm

Interesting that two articles have appeared this weekend about the extent to which the Irish Government is or is not engaging with unionism, firstly Tommie Gorman's piece yesterday, and now Eamon Delaney's take:

https://eamondelaney.wordpress.com/2017/12/15/what-now-for-relations-between-dublin-and-the-ulster-unionists/

Sidey · 17-12-2017 6:56pm

Wow, there's some seriously unreconstructed 1980s Harrisite/Cruiserology drivel in that Delaney article!

I guess he's the sort of eejit in the early 90s back in the very early Peace Process days who would have furiously objected to Clinton giving Adams a visa to visit the US? There's a whole cohort of people like that all through the Irish media who were agin' it then, and still agin' it now, Soldiers of the Rearguard for a political battle they comprehensively lost and were proven utterly Wrong about nigh-on 25 years ago.

Avatar MIA · 17-12-2017 8:16pm

Sidey wrote: »

Wow, there's some seriously unreconstructed 1980s Harrisite/Cruiserology drivel in that Delaney article!

I guess he's the sort of eejit in the early 90s back in the very early Peace Process days who would have furiously objected to Clinton giving Adams a visa to visit the US? There's a whole cohort of people like that all through the Irish media who were agin' it then, and still agin' it now, Soldiers of the Rearguard for a political battle they comprehensively lost and were proven utterly Wrong about nigh-on 25 years ago.

Well, it exercised you enough to make your debut post nearly 7 years after signing up.

Hindsight is 20/20. It was probably the right decision at the time, but the IRA had been fundraising in the US for decades, and it wasn't as clear cut as you make out.

blanch152 · 17-12-2017 9:00pm

Sidey wrote: »

Wow, there's some seriously unreconstructed 1980s Harrisite/Cruiserology drivel in that Delaney article!

I guess he's the sort of eejit in the early 90s back in the very early Peace Process days who would have furiously objected to Clinton giving Adams a visa to visit the US? There's a whole cohort of people like that all through the Irish media who were agin' it then, and still agin' it now, Soldiers of the Rearguard for a political battle they comprehensively lost and were proven utterly Wrong about nigh-on 25 years ago.

Delaney article reads as quite reasonable to me. A former diplomat who wrote a very accurate book on life inside the civil service. Some very good points in the article.

Junkyard Tom · 17-12-2017 10:34pm

People are sick to death of the DUP's sneering, disrespectful, anachronistic, confrontational style of politics. People are sick to death of whingeing about 'Unionist fears'.

No more appeasement.

Del.Monte · 17-12-2017 10:35pm

A very rational article by Delaney and he captures perfectly the spirit of some Boardsies who await the day when one more Roman Catholic birth will somehow magically unite the country.

Avatar MIA · 17-12-2017 10:36pm

Del.Monte wrote: »

A very rational article by Delaney and he captures perfectly the spirit of some Boardsies who await the day when one more Roman Catholic birth will somehow magically unite the country.

Erm, sorry to break it to you, but this person has already been born.

blanch152 · 17-12-2017 10:54pm

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

People are sick to death of the DUP's sneering, disrespectful, anachronistic, confrontational style of politics. People are sick to death of whingeing about 'Unionist fears'.

No more appeasement.

That must be the most ironic post I have ever read on boards.

"Those that want respect, give respect", just the following sentence after disrespecting the entire Unionist community. You couldn't make this up.

Nationalists are never going to persuade Unionists into a joint future on this island until that kind of attitude to the Unionists is put aside for ever.

Del.Monte · 17-12-2017 11:02pm

Avatar MIA wrote: »

Erm, sorry to break it to you, but this person has already been born.

Link please as anything I can find online indicates otherwise - not that it makes a bean of difference. A border poll under the GFA or any other pretext simply will not induce NI Unionists into a United Ireland. I have even noticed a hardening of attitudes against a U.I amongst very moderate Unionists that I know, so God only knows what hardliners are thinking.

Avatar MIA · 17-12-2017 11:12pm

Del.Monte wrote: »

Link please as anything I can find online indicates otherwise - not that it makes a bean of difference. A border poll under the GFA or any other pretext simply will not induce NI Unionists into a United Ireland. I have even noticed a hardening of attitudes against a U.I amongst very moderate Unionists that I know, so God only knows what hardliners are thinking.

By definition unionists will never vote for a UI. However, the recent poll shows what is required is to convince those from a Nationalist background to vote for a UI as well as some of the non-aligned (such as non nationals).

Brexit is just such a catalyst.

Del.Monte · 17-12-2017 11:24pm

Avatar MIA wrote: »

By definition unionists will never vote for a UI. However, the recent poll shows what is required is to convince those from a Nationalist background to vote for a UI as well as some of the non-aligned (such as non nationals).

Brexit is just such a catalyst.

So if all those from a Nationalist background vote for a UI the Unionists will be compelled to join it? Sounds like a recipe for serious trouble.

Avatar MIA · 17-12-2017 11:28pm

Del.Monte wrote: »

So if all those from a Nationalist background vote for a UI the Unionists will be compelled to join it? Sounds like a recipe for serious trouble.

There's a huge difference between not voting for something and creating trouble.

However, the UI they will be entering will take their cultural and wants (within a UI) into account.

NI will not be bolted onto a ROI, it will be a partnership.

Jobs OXO · 17-12-2017 11:32pm

How would the Republic of Ireland vote? Have there been any polls on this? A lot of people I know would vote against a united Ireland and want nothing to do with NI and all the cost and trouble it would bring.

feargale · 17-12-2017 11:37pm

A poll, to be taken seriously, must be conducted by disinterested parties. That does not appear to be the case in this instance.
Anyone who wanted a UI would take the view that the less said the better. The great mantra of Northern Unionists/Protestants has always been "coercion." Leave them alone and let them form their own conclusions. In any event a sizeable proportion of them will have to reach that conclusion before it happens. Far too much is being said about it, and in many cases by politicos who are more interested in boosting their electoral standing than in actually achieving a UI.

An Ciarraioch · 17-12-2017 11:38pm

Del.Monte wrote: »

Link please as anything I can find online indicates otherwise - not that it makes a bean of difference. A border poll under the GFA or any other pretext simply will not induce NI Unionists into a United Ireland. I have even noticed a hardening of attitudes against a U.I amongst very moderate Unionists that I know, so God only knows what hardliners are thinking.

Peter Weir's already thinking that Coveney was proposing joint authority on The Week In Politics, even though the Intergovernmental Conference is the correct legal procedure after a suspended NI Assembly.

https://mobile.twitter.com/peterweirmla/status/942471232670326786

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British–Irish_Intergovernmental_Conference

An Ciarraioch · 17-12-2017 11:40pm

feargale wrote: »

A poll, to be taken seriously, must be conducted by disinterested parties. That does not appear to be the case in this instance.
Anyone who wanted a UI would take the view that the less said the better. The great mantra of Northern Unionists/Protestants has always been "coercion." Leave them alone and let them form their own conclusions. In any event a sizeable proportion of them will have to reach that conclusion before it happens. Far too much is being said about it, and in many cases by politicos who are more interested in boosting their electoral standing than in actually achieving a UI.

The result is in line with the October Lucid Talk poll, however.

Avatar MIA · 17-12-2017 11:40pm

feargale wrote: »

A poll, to be taken seriously, must be conducted by disinterested parties. That does not appear to be the case in this instance.
Anyone who wanted a UI would take the view that the less said the better. The great mantra of Northern Unionists/Protestants has always been "coercion." Leave them alone and let them form their own conclusions. In any event a sizeable proportion of them will have to reach that conclusion before it happens. Far too much is being said about it, and in many cases by politicos who are more interested in boosting their electoral standing than in actually achieving a UI.

So, promote a UI by doing nothing. Sounds like an amazing strategy.

An Ciarraioch · 17-12-2017 11:41pm

Del.Monte wrote: »

So if all those from a Nationalist background vote for a UI the Unionists will be compelled to join it? Sounds like a recipe for serious trouble.

Only if Others (57% according to this poll) join them.

feargale · 17-12-2017 11:49pm

Avatar MIA wrote: »

So, promote a UI by doing nothing. Sounds like an amazing strategy.

Yes, let the facts speak for themselves, unless of course you want to advocate a military solution. What do you suggest should be done?

47.9% of NI would back a United Ireland in the event of a 'hard Brexit'

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