47.9% of NI would back a United Ireland in the event of a 'hard Brexit'

fxotoole · 08-12-2017 09:23PM

markodaly wrote: »

Our Dail politics is a little dysfunctional, not sure would the DUP and the more militant Shinners be much help here in that regard. It will not happen in my life for sure, we wont even pay for water, do you honestly think da people will pay an extra few grand a year to bail out the north?

Agreed. If a UI did happen, I’d love to see SF struggling to explain to their irate electorate why they must now pay 100% more tax to pay for their now United Ireland

Avatar MIA · 08-12-2017 09:25PM

fxotoole wrote: »

Agreed. If a UI did happen, I’d love to see SF struggling to explain to their irate electorate why they must now pay 100% more tax to pay for their now United Ireland

This makes no sense. Are the government of a UI burning money in an incinerator?

EDIT - don't judge us by the actions of the NI government and their RHI scheme

fxotoole · 08-12-2017 09:26PM

Reece Mysterious Albino wrote: »

This poll only asked 1,000 people, come back when they multiple this sample group, by about x6,500 fold.

1,000 people is statistically significant and fairly standard for polls like this

FrancieBrady · 08-12-2017 09:30PM

fxotoole wrote: »

Agreed. If a UI did happen, I’d love to see SF struggling to explain to their irate electorate why they must now pay 100% more tax to pay for their now United Ireland

How would it be SF's United Ireland.
Is there a political party in Ireland that doesn't want a UI?

Consonata · 08-12-2017 09:38PM

fxotoole wrote: »

1,000 people is statistically significant and fairly standard for polls like this

Not only that, it was 2,080 people that were polled

ancapailldorcha · 08-12-2017 10:43PM

No more crap-posting please.

CroFag · 09-12-2017 09:52AM

Could someone please explain to me why is the percentage of Catholics for UI so low? Aren't they people with a completely Irish heritage?
And how come so many Protestants (fair play to them) are indeed for One Ireland?

I'm left completely baffled...

Avatar MIA · 09-12-2017 10:38AM

CroFag wrote: »

Could someone please explain to me why is the percentage of Catholics for UI so low?

They are currently living in a state nearly 100 years old and part of the 5th/6th largest economy in the world (although watch this space).

CroFag wrote: »

Aren't they people with a completely Irish heritage?

It would be hard for them to having lived in a society that's not the same as the rest of Ireland because (see above).

CroFag wrote: »

And how come so many Protestants (fair play to them) are indeed for One Ireland?

It's simple, there aren't.

McMurphy · 09-12-2017 11:17AM

Avatar MIA wrote: »

It would be hard for them to having lived in a society that's not the same as the rest of Ireland because (see above).

I'm not so sure about that tbh.

Most nationalists in the north would identify as being Irish, society for them generally speaking includes a Catholic church school education system, where religion , Irish language and history features strongly in the curriculum.

Life for many will revolve around the local GAA club (it is no coincidence that Ulster county teams feature regularly in the final stages of all Ireland competitions)

They'll listen and watch both rte television and radio stations.

They'll cheer on the Irish rugby and football teams.

Indeed, some areas of Donegal can be barely set apart from Derry or Tyrone. (Culturally or visually)

Not that big a difference in societies if you ask me.

Avatar MIA · 09-12-2017 11:32AM

Rick Shaw wrote: »

I'm not so sure about that tbh.

Most nationalists in the north would identify as being Irish, society for them generally speaking includes a Catholic church school education system, where religion , Irish language and history features strongly in the curriculum.

Life for many will revolve around the local GAA club (it is no coincidence that Ulster county teams feature regularly in the final stages of all Ireland competitions)

They'll listen and watch both rte television and radio stations.

They'll cheer on the Irish rugby and football teams.

Indeed, some areas of Donegal can be barely set apart from Derry or Tyrone. (Culturally or visually)

Not that big a difference in societies if you ask me.

Agree with all the above, there's certainly immersion in the Irish culture, but is it exclusive? no. Hell, what is Irish culture anyway, when most of us in the ROI follow so much British culture from soaps to sport.

But, there are a lot of NI Nationalists embedded into a lot of British culture, how could they not.

Inertia is a great force.

I think Brexit could be a game changer though.

Hollister11 · 09-12-2017 11:35AM

LiamoSail wrote: »

We can't afford the North, it's a basket case economically. Reunification would require austerity on par with the post crash days coupled with significant increases in income tax etc. It's romantic notion but the shouldn't be considered without accounting for the accompanying security issues, likely Unionist campaigns, cuts in housing, health, education, infrastructure etc.

Ireland's not a utopia, but the last thing in the world a country like ours that try's to act like a normal functioning country needs is more Sinn Fein and the DUP

Are you ****tin me?

If the ROI take control of NI, we get Belfast. Another major city. Think of all the growth we could add to the country as a whole by attracting big companies to another major city.

For Forks Sake · 09-12-2017 01:02PM

Hollister11 wrote: »

Are you ****tin me?

If the ROI take control of NI, we get Belfast. Another major city. Think of all the growth we could add to the country as a whole by attracting big companies to another major city.

Over 60% of all households in NI receive their income from the state, be it through welfare, the bloated civil/public service or the 'community groups' set up after the Good Friday agreement to make work for idle terrorists, again all funded by her Majestys treasury.

28.9% of the labour force are classified as inactive

There are in excess of 18000 homeless for a population of 1.8 m (for comparison ROI is 8.8k off a population of 4.8m)

For every £4 it generates, it spends £5. The place is a black hole for public money, a productive economic powerhouse it is not.

Avatar MIA · 09-12-2017 01:26PM

For Forks Sake wrote: »

a productive economic powerhouse it is not.

It WAS effectively the Irish powerhouse once. They messed up creating a pro-protestant state and the terror campaign finished it off.

But, it could be turned around. We're not that special down here, that our success was some one off that cannot be expanded into the 6 integrating counties.

ancapailldorcha · 09-12-2017 01:33PM

Hollister11 wrote: »

Are you ****tin me?

If the ROI take control of NI, we get Belfast. Another major city. Think of all the growth we could add to the country as a whole by attracting big companies to another major city.

Belfast is nothing resembling a major city. It's a big town with a population similar to Brighton & Hove which is no economic powerhouse. As For Forks Sake has pointed out, Northern Ireland isn't an economic prize it is at best a fixxer-upper.

For Forks Sake · 09-12-2017 01:35PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Belfast is nothing resembling a major city. It's a big town with a population similar to Brighton & Hove which is no economic powerhouse. As For Forks Sake has pointed out, Northern Ireland isn't an economic prize it is at best a fixxer-upper.

A very expensive fixer upper at that...

Del.Monte · 09-12-2017 03:48PM

For Forks Sake wrote: »

Over 60% of all households in NI receive their income from the state, be it through welfare, the bloated civil/public service or the 'community groups' set up after the Good Friday agreement to make work for idle terrorists, again all funded by her Majestys treasury.

28.9% of the labour force are classified as inactive

There are in excess of 18000 homeless for a population of 1.8 m (for comparison ROI is 8.8k off a population of 4.8m)

For every £4 it generates, it spends £5. The place is a black hole for public money, a productive economic powerhouse it is not.

What's this nonsense?

According to that link you posted:

The latest NI seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the period July - September 2017 was 4.0%, the lowest in the quarterly series since April – June 2008.

The unemployment rate decreased by 1.2 pps from the previous quarter and 1.6 pps over the year (from 5.6%). The quarterly and annual decreases were statistically significant and are likely to reflect real change.

The latest NI unemployment rate (4.0%) was below the UK average of 4.3%.

This is the first time the NI rate has been below the UK since 2013. Additionally, it was below the European Union (7.6%) rate and Republic of Ireland (6.3%) rate for August 2017.

For Forks Sake · 09-12-2017 04:57PM

Del.Monte wrote: »

What's this nonsense?

According to that link you posted:

The latest NI seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the period July - September 2017 was 4.0%, the lowest in the quarterly series since April – June 2008.

The unemployment rate decreased by 1.2 pps from the previous quarter and 1.6 pps over the year (from 5.6%). The quarterly and annual decreases were statistically significant and are likely to reflect real change.

The latest NI unemployment rate (4.0%) was below the UK average of 4.3%.

This is the first time the NI rate has been below the UK since 2013. Additionally, it was below the European Union (7.6%) rate and Republic of Ireland (6.3%) rate for August 2017.

If you had bothered to read one paragraph further....

The economic inactivity rate (28.9%) increased over the quarter by 2.0 pps and increased by 3.0 pps over the year (from a record low in 2016). The increases over the quarter and the year were statistically significant and are likely to reflect real change. At 28.9% of the population aged 16 to 64 years, the economic inactivity rate is the highest since 2010.

blanch152 · 09-12-2017 05:21PM

For Forks Sake wrote: »

Over 60% of all households in NI receive their income from the state, be it through welfare, the bloated civil/public service or the 'community groups' set up after the Good Friday agreement to make work for idle terrorists, again all funded by her Majestys treasury.

28.9% of the labour force are classified as inactive

There are in excess of 18000 homeless for a population of 1.8 m (for comparison ROI is 8.8k off a population of 4.8m)

For every £4 it generates, it spends £5. The place is a black hole for public money, a productive economic powerhouse it is not.

This is the problem with a united Ireland, the South cannot afford the North.

There is precedence for this - look at the way West Germany suffered economically after unification. If FF hadn't guaranteed the banks in 2008 and we had managed to come through the last decade pretty ok, it might have been possible, unfortunately not any more and not for at least another decade.

Avatar MIA wrote: »

It WAS effectively the Irish powerhouse once. They messed up creating a pro-protestant state and the terror campaign finished it off.

But, it could be turned around. We're not that special down here, that our success was some one off that cannot be expanded into the 6 integrating counties.

Yes, it was the Irish powerhouse one, but it wasn't the pro-protestant state that destroyed it, the lost opportunity was when the Provos refused to stop in the mid-1970s.

Avatar MIA · 09-12-2017 05:28PM

blanch152 wrote: »

Yes, it was the Irish powerhouse one, but it wasn't the pro-protestant state that destroyed it, the lost opportunity was when the Provos refused to stop in the mid-1970s.

The Civil rights movement, Bloody Sunday, recruitment for the IRA. These can be traced back to the Protestant Parliament for a Protestant People mentality.

blanch152 · 09-12-2017 05:41PM

Avatar MIA wrote: »

The Civil rights movement, Bloody Sunday, recruitment for the IRA. These can be traced back to the Protestant Parliament for a Protestant People mentality.

Doesn't matter what you trace them back to, the unnecessary intervention was the IRA terrorist campaign, and was also the intervention that destroyed the Northern Irish economy.

Professor Moriarty · 09-12-2017 05:44PM

blanch152 wrote: »

Doesn't matter what you trace them back to, the unnecessary intervention was the IRA terrorist campaign, and was also the intervention that destroyed the Northern Irish economy.

The unnecessary intervention was Bloody Sunday. Everything flowed from that.

murphaph · 09-12-2017 06:10PM

Avatar MIA wrote: »

It WAS effectively the Irish powerhouse once. They messed up creating a pro-protestant state and the terror campaign finished it off.

But, it could be turned around. We're not that special down here, that our success was some one off that cannot be expanded into the 6 integrating counties.

The north of England was once the economic powerhouse of that country and it wasn't finished off by being a Protestant state or having a terror campaign. It just ceased to be relevant (man made fibres decimated the cotton industry which thrived in the damp northern climate). That's basically what finished off the north east of Ireland too. Who buys Linen these days?

Notwithstanding this I think the Dublin Belfast corridor could be very dynamic but west of the Bann would be like our own west of the Shannon... largely reliant on social transfers from urban areas.

As regards the affordability...we could if Brexit doesn't ruin them completely drive a pretty hard bargain with our neighbours to continue paying a large contribution towards Northern Ireland while we attempt to integrate it into the more productive southern economy. It would need to be some very good deal though. The current NI budget would be completely unaffordable to Ireland as things stand.

Zerbini Blewitt · 09-12-2017 06:43PM

Well the social democrat, Joan Burton cleared out the ranks of the long term unemployed in recent years, with some success. It would be more of that – except on horse-steroids (i.e. all economically inactive anywhere would be under the microscope).

I for one, would not be sugar-coating any united Ireland proposal to win a referendum.

Lying on such a scale is for sociopaths & should not be acceptable.

Del.Monte · 09-12-2017 06:50PM

For Forks Sake wrote: »

If you had bothered to read one paragraph further....

I give up - I don't even understand that statistical gobbledygook. As an aside I think the North of Ireland is streets ahead of the Republic in many ways and this country would have collapsed completely had it been subjected to thirty years of terrorism. Anyway, rubbishing the NI economy and belittling the Northern Unionists all the time is no way to encourage them into the welcoming embrace of the Republic - despite what some posters here may think.

jm08 · 09-12-2017 07:15PM

For Forks Sake wrote: »

Over 60% of all households in NI receive their income from the state, be it through welfare, the bloated civil/public service or the 'community groups' set up after the Good Friday agreement to make work for idle terrorists, again all funded by her Majestys treasury.

28.9% of the labour force are classified as inactive

There are in excess of 18000 homeless for a population of 1.8 m (for comparison ROI is 8.8k off a population of 4.8m)

For every £4 it generates, it spends £5. The place is a black hole for public money, a productive economic powerhouse it is not.

But that is because it has to compete with the rest of the UK and ROI. Move their corporate tax rate back to 12.5% and a few other initiatives would make a huge difference for them. For example, the Bombardier problem they had - May couldn't do too much to support them because Boeing employs so many in the UK. Ireland wouldn't have that problem in batting for them and the fact that airline leasing is so huge in the ROI would also give the Irish Gov. a lot more clout than the British Gov. NI as an industrial base would compliment the ROI and I can see them thriving in a UI.

For Forks Sake · 09-12-2017 09:25PM

Del.Monte wrote: »

I give up - I don't even understand that statistical gobbledygook. As an aside I think the North of Ireland is streets ahead of the Republic in many ways and this country would have collapsed completely had it been subjected to thirty years of terrorism. Anyway, rubbishing the NI economy and belittling the Northern Unionists all the time is no way to encourage them into the welcoming embrace of the Republic - despite what some posters here may think.

Are we taking the Michael Gove approach? *

Here's the ONS definition of economic inactivity:

Economic inactivity
People not in employment who have not been seeking work within the last 4 weeks and/or are unable to start work within the next 2 weeks.

*

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sz1_LHtfuCI

Junkyard Tom · 10-12-2017 12:44AM

blanch152 wrote: »

Doesn't matter what you trace them back to, the unnecessary intervention was the IRA terrorist campaign, and was also the intervention that destroyed the Northern Irish economy.

The economy in the north was on the slide well before Unionists caused the troubles. I'd be interested to know how much the troubles actually stabilised the decline with the British pumping billions of GBP into it to try to defeat the PIRA and normalise it.

jimmycrackcorm · 10-12-2017 01:02AM

jm08 wrote: »

But that is because it has to compete with the rest of the UK and ROI. Move their corporate tax rate back to 12.5% and a few other initiatives would make a huge difference for them. For example, the Bombardier problem they had - May couldn't do too much to support them because Boeing employs so many in the UK. Ireland wouldn't have that problem in batting for them and the fact that airline leasing is so huge in the ROI would also give the Irish Gov. a lot more clout than the British Gov. NI as an industrial base would compliment the ROI and I can see them thriving in a UI.

Arlene days that they can't have N.I. Being econometrics different than the rest of the UK so no 12.5% for them.

Not that it'll matter much if the regularity compatibility with the EU falls and they have to compete with the new worldwide trade deals with fast going places like India, China and Brazil instead of on their doorstep.

Avatar MIA · 10-12-2017 09:32AM

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Arlene days that they can't have N.I. Being econometrics different than the rest of the UK so no 12.5% for them.

Not that it'll matter much if the regularity compatibility with the EU falls and they have to compete with the new worldwide trade deals with fast going places like India, China and Brazil instead of on their doorstep.

First of all a different NI tax rate has been on the table for years.

However, I think what has been discussed above is in a UI context.

FrancieBrady · 10-12-2017 09:54AM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

The economy in the north was on the slide well before Unionists caused the troubles. I'd be interested to know how much the troubles actually stabilised the decline with the British pumping billions of GBP into it to try to defeat the PIRA and normalise it.

My dad left the north in the 50's due to the chronic unemployment there.
In the 80's and 90's NI had similar unemployment rates to Wales and the North of England.
The lack of opportunity for some in education and employment and stagnation in nationalist and catholic areas was a contributor to the conflict.

47.9% of NI would back a United Ireland in the event of a 'hard Brexit'

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