Self driving buses, trains, trucks etc

17-08-2017 9:37am #1

Don't know about the rest of you, but I am looking forward to seeing driverless buses, trains, taxis and luas

It's really not as far away as people think

Infini · 17-08-2017 5:54pm

Deleted User wrote: »

L1011 wrote: »

expect union backlash as always

Don't know about the rest of you, but I am looking forward to seeing driverless buses, trains, taxis and luas

It's really not as far away as people think

You know its really low to want people to be out of a job I mean thats just being miserable and petty. I mean do you want a good chunk of the population to just sit around around or do nothing or be forced into low wage jobs?

Besides that wont happen in most transport because of the risks associated with removing human intervention.

25-08-2017 2:34am

Infini wrote: »

You know its really low to want people to be out of a job I mean thats just being miserable and petty. I mean do you want a good chunk of the population to just sit around around or do nothing or be forced into low wage jobs?

Besides that wont happen in most transport because of the risks associated with removing human intervention.

It's not miserable at all, it's progress, nothing more.

Look at agriculture, from high human labour requirement, to minimal.

Same for most manufacturing processes.

With all that, we are still not far from full employment in this country, see http://www.cso.ie/multiquicktables/quickTables.aspx?id=mum01

What happens is jobs change, new streams of employment open up. It's the way of things for the last 200 years.

As for it won't happen, it already is

https://www.google.ie/search?q=Self+driving+bus

In 10 years this will be the new normal

boardsuser1 · 25-08-2017 12:03pm

What are people's opinions?

I personally will need to upskill if this is successful.

Partially driverless trucks to be on UK roads by 2019
http://jrnl.ie/3564121

LeinsterDub · 25-08-2017 12:09pm

Cork Truck Driver wrote: »

What are people's opinions?

I personally will need to upskill if this is successful.

Partially driverless trucks to be on UK roads by 2019
http://jrnl.ie/3564121

For testing. Still quite a while off and massive issues to overcome regarding merges and signage. There is a reason we've a maximum length on trucks.

magicbastarder · 25-08-2017 12:14pm

i would guess the biggest issues would be legislation/insurance.

plodder · 25-08-2017 12:46pm

Cork Truck Driver wrote: »

What are people's opinions?

I personally will need to upskill if this is successful.

Partially driverless trucks to be on UK roads by 2019
http://jrnl.ie/3564121

upskill in what way? Each vehicle still needs a driver. I wonder will it result in any change to tachograph rules.

Seems like a good idea for long distance journeys on motorway. Though not sure if the distances in this country would justify it initially at least.

boardsuser1 · 25-08-2017 1:05pm

plodder wrote: »

upskill in what way? Each vehicle still needs a driver. I wonder will it result in any change to tachograph rules.

Seems like a good idea for long distance journeys on motorway. Though not sure if the distances in this country would justify it initially at least.

Upskill as a result of what will undoubtedly be the future I'd imagine.

I'm in my early 30's and could have 40 years of work ahead of me.

In relation to tachograph's,if the driver is onboard it will count as normal I'd be inclined to believe.

boardsuser1 · 25-08-2017 1:05pm

magicbastarder wrote: »

i would guess the biggest issues would be legislation/insurance.

Legislation is the easier of the 2 I'd say.

boardsuser1 · 25-08-2017 1:07pm

LeinsterDub wrote: »

For testing. Still quite a while off and massive issues to overcome regarding merges and signage. There is a reason we've a maximum length on trucks.

Anything over 16.5 meters needs a special licence, Such as a road train.

Del.Monte · 25-08-2017 1:45pm

One of these days they are actually going to reinvent the wheel. Road trains for freight - it would be funny if it wasn't indicative of transport policy here and in countries like the USA.

Would it not be a better idea to develop rail freight, private sidings etc. and encourage businesses that need to ship large consignments to set up adjacent to rail lines I know it's all pie in the sky stuff but....driverless trucks, road trains, deliveries by drone - the stuff of science fiction. :rolleyes:

Dravokivich · 25-08-2017 1:47pm

plodder wrote: »

upskill in what way? Each vehicle still needs a driver. I wonder will it result in any change to tachograph rules.

Seems like a good idea for long distance journeys on motorway. Though not sure if the distances in this country would justify it initially at least.

With the safety concerns aside for a second that usually come up with automated driving. I think we have quite a strong motorway network that could support this, as well as it being something that is generally perceived as over invested in, to the detriment of other infrastructure.

You can have hubs just off motorways for an automated truck to get to and then a driver takes over.

Alun · 25-08-2017 1:51pm

Can you imagine the carnage that would ensue when the average Irish driver tries to merge at 50km/h on to a motorway as a 3 truck driverless convoy goes past the on ramp? :eek::eek::eek:

4068ac1elhodqr · 25-08-2017 2:01pm

HGV Drivers were always going to be one of the first human worker classifications to to lost to the 4th Industrial Revolution. This news comes of little surprise.

Longer term, the future of all transport will likely go the way of pneumatic air tube transport systems coupled with low friction magnetic pulse levitation.

plodder · 25-08-2017 2:01pm

Dravokivich wrote: »

With the safety concerns aside for a second that usually come up with automated driving. I think we have quite a strong motorway network that could support this, as well as it being something that is generally perceived as over invested in, to the detriment of other infrastructure.

You can have hubs just off motorways for an automated truck to get to and then a driver takes over.

Yeah, maybe though I think fully driverless will be a long way off. This idea sounds quite practical though. I'd imagine that any truck with the technology would be able to join convoys like this randomly on the m-way, though there would have to be some way to compensate the vehicle at the front for providing the "service" but not directly benefiting. Keeping trucks together in tight groups of three could help congestion to some extent, as well as fuel economy.

LeinsterDub · 25-08-2017 2:07pm

Del.Monte wrote: »

One of these days they are actually going to reinvent the wheel. Road trains for freight - it would be funny if it wasn't indicative of transport policy here and in countries like the USA.

Would it not be a better idea to develop rail freight, private sidings etc. and encourage businesses that need to ship large consignments to set up adjacent to rail lines I know it's all pie in the sky stuff but....driverless trucks, road trains, deliveries by drone - the stuff of science fiction. :rolleyes:

You can rage all you want against the dying of that particular night but the fact remains in many parts of the world rail isn't an option or competitive.

I mean would we not be better developing typewriter technology encourage businesses to have private typing pools etc who needs computers

LeinsterDub · 25-08-2017 2:11pm

Layne Rotten Colon wrote: »

.
Longer term, the future of all transport will likely go the way of pneumatic air tube transport systems coupled with low friction magnetic pulse levitation.

Until I see any actual progress I will be calling hyperloop the fevered dream of mad men

end of the road · 25-08-2017 2:14pm

Deleted User wrote: »

It's not miserable at all, it's progress, nothing more.

Look at agriculture, from high human labour requirement, to minimal.

Same for most manufacturing processes.

With all that, we are still not far from full employment in this country, see http://www.cso.ie/multiquicktables/quickTables.aspx?id=mum01

What happens is jobs change, new streams of employment open up. It's the way of things for the last 200 years.

As for it won't happen, it already is

https://www.google.ie/search?q=Self+driving+bus

In 10 years this will be the new normal

on a couple of test routes yes. however it will be 20 maybe even 30 years before full service would begin with self-driving busses, and that may be an under-estimate.

plodder · 25-08-2017 2:15pm

Del.Monte wrote: »

One of these days they are actually going to reinvent the wheel. Road trains for freight - it would be funny if it wasn't indicative of transport policy here and in countries like the USA.

Would it not be a better idea to develop rail freight, private sidings etc. and encourage businesses that need to ship large consignments to set up adjacent to rail lines I know it's all pie in the sky stuff but....driverless trucks, road trains, deliveries by drone - the stuff of science fiction. :rolleyes:

A lot of that stuff is pie in the Sky as there isn't an obvious payback initially. This is different though. The technology is mature enough and the payback quite clear to the users and the public. I'd say this will be live somewhere in Europe or US in the next five years. Rail freight will remain a niche business I'd think.

25-08-2017 2:21pm

end of the road wrote: »

on a couple of test routes yes. however it will be 20 maybe even 30 years before full service would begin with self-driving busses, and that may be an under-estimate.

You have a mistaken view of the pace of technological advancement.

These will be the norm in a lot of places within a decade. Probably not Ireland, we've never been a leader in anything except charging for plastic bags but this will come here and faster than you think.

The wage saving alone would pay for a crapload more buses. Added to that, the timetables could be better structured to serve the customers as opposed to the current situation where they are setup for the staff first.

Like I said, I look forward to seeing this

4068ac1elhodqr · 25-08-2017 2:22pm

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Until I see any actual progress I will be calling hyperloop the fevered dream of mad men

It's very much long term, but Hyperloop is having success in it's testing and trials. There are also other similar companies developing such prototypes, as you can't easily patent such a simple principle.

Some reports suggest large scale costs would be 25% that of rail road building, essentially it's just small pod packages on magnets in a pipe-like tube, with very little other hardware involved, and very little service wear n' tear due to the low friction principle.

LeinsterDub · 25-08-2017 2:26pm

Layne Rotten Colon wrote: »

It's very much long term, but Hyperloop is having success in it's testing and trials. There are also other similar companies developing such prototypes, as you can't easily patent such a simple principle.

It's had zero success. They've fired a cart down a 100 metre long tube at less than 100 miles per hour. This isn't anything new and it's the equivalent of throwing a toy rocket in to the sky and claiming we've mad great progress getting to the moon. This idea isn't new Jules Vern was writing about it 170 years ago

liger · 25-08-2017 2:41pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Like I said, I look forward to seeing this

Enjoy your holiday because it won't be in Ireland in your lifetime. That's my view of technological advancements and the willingness to roll them out here.

magicbastarder · 25-08-2017 2:43pm

anyone else reckon that this convoy idea is solving a problem with computers that was solved centuries ago with rail?

end of the road · 25-08-2017 2:45pm

Deleted User wrote: »

You have a mistaken view of the pace of technological advancement.

These will be the norm in a lot of places within a decade. Probably not Ireland, we've never been a leader in anything except charging for plastic bags but this will come here and faster than you think.

The wage saving alone would pay for a crapload more buses. Added to that, the timetables could be better structured to serve the customers as opposed to the current situation where they are setup for the staff first.

Like I said, I look forward to seeing this

the timetables are not set up for the staff first. the wage savings would only pay for a few busses i reccan, busses don't come cheap.

LeinsterDub · 25-08-2017 2:45pm

magicbastarder wrote: »

anyone else reckon that this convoy idea is solving a problem with computers that was solved centuries ago with rail?

Just like computers solved a problem that was solved centuries ago with the pen. It's called progress.

devnull · 25-08-2017 2:48pm

THREADS MERGED

magicbastarder · 25-08-2017 2:53pm

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Just like computers solved a problem that was solved centuries ago with the pen. It's called progress.

i have one pen and one computer on the desk in front of me. it's a draw.

Del.Monte · 25-08-2017 3:03pm

First there were trains and then buses and then guided busways and then they realised that they had invented a less reliable type of ....train.

end of the road · 25-08-2017 3:10pm

LeinsterDub wrote: »

You can rage all you want against the dying of that particular night but the fact remains in many parts of the world rail isn't an option or competitive.

I mean would we not be better developing typewriter technology encourage businesses to have private typing pools etc who needs computers

type-writers are not a valid comparison to rail freight. rail freight can be competitive in ireland with a policy shift toards it. it would require breaking the stranglehold of the road hauliers but it will be worth it once done. greater use of rail freight will be cheaper then paying all those fines for carbon emissions as well i'd bet. electric trucks will still require a lot of energy to power them all which will have to come from burning something and in a lot more quantities.

plodder · 25-08-2017 3:11pm

magicbastarder wrote: »

i have one pen and one computer on the desk in front of me. it's a draw.

While there's a good argument for always using the simplest tool for a particular job... which are you using to read and post on this website ? :pac:

On railways vs roads, it's kind of similar. If there is a railway line between A and B and you want to go from A to B, then great. But, people more than likely want to go from C to D and the road network is vastly larger.

The argument is different in big cities obviously where roads are much more limited.

eeguy · 25-08-2017 3:16pm

end of the road wrote: »

type-writers are not a valid comparison to rail freight. rail freight can be competitive in ireland with a policy shift toards it. it would require breaking the stranglehold of the road hauliers but it will be worth it once done. greater use of rail freight will be cheaper then paying all those fines for carbon emissions as well i'd bet. electric trucks will still require a lot of energy to power them all which will have to come from burning something and in a lot more quantities.

Didn't people move away from rail because of the stranglehold of rail hauliers?

Automation is happening. The Irish news in particular is often months behind reporting. The big story today about road convoys in the UK fails to mention that it's already been done in Germany and France last year.
Tesla are expected to reveal their electric semi-truck next month, which is reported to have similar autonomous capability to the cars.

It's not just restricted to transport. If you need surgery in ten years time you can be guaranteed there'll be a robot guiding a surgeons hand.

bk · 25-08-2017 3:19pm

magicbastarder wrote: »

anyone else reckon that this convoy idea is solving a problem with computers that was solved centuries ago with rail?

The issue with rail is the high capital cost of building it and the fact that it doesn't go everywhere.

The advantage of driverless truck convoys is that they can cheaply use the infrastructure that is already in place for cars.

I think rail freight will still make sense across long distances (like across the US), but driver less trucks and convoys will definitely be a thing everywhere else.

end of the road wrote: »

the timetables are not set up for the staff first. the wage savings would only pay for a few busses i reccan, busses don't come cheap.

Wages make up 60% of Dublin Buses income.

New buses (100 per year) cost just about 14% of Dublin Buses income (though note they currently cost DB zero as the NTA pays for them).

At the very least self driving vehicles, especially if using cheap electricity, would pretty much guarantee we would have 24/7 bus services and probably more frequent services on Sundays. If wages are no longer an issue, then no reason to leave the buses sitting in the depot when they can be out earning revenue.

Though I do wonder if buses will survive the upcoming self driving revolution at all!

On demand, uber style self driving pod car type services could end up completely bypassing buses completely.

I've read reports that modelled the cost of such services. They found it to be about 50c per mile. To put that in context I travel about 2 miles on DB and it costs me €2.05. With this type of service, the same trip would cost about €1. Half the price, door to door and the pod car to myself!

I think some bus services will still survive, heading into the core city center with heavy congestion is present. However they will likely need to be self driving to bring the cost of services and tickets down to be more competitive with on demand car rental services.

magicbastarder · 25-08-2017 3:20pm

eeguy wrote: »

It's not just restricted to transport. If you need surgery in ten years time you can be guaranteed there'll be a robot guiding a surgeons hand.

what do you mean by 'guiding'?
robotic assisted surgery has been around for years; in the sense that robotic surgery allows surgeons to 'step down' their hand movements and buffer them, operating from a console. buffering out hand tremors too.

magicbastarder · 25-08-2017 3:23pm

bk wrote: »

The issue with rail is the high capital cost of building it and the fact that it doesn't go everywhere.

in the short term anyway, i can see these road convoys being limited to motorways and the like - in an irish context, places that generally are already served by rail.

eeguy · 25-08-2017 3:25pm

magicbastarder wrote: »

what do you mean by 'guiding'?
robotic assisted surgery has been around for years; in the sense that robotic surgery allows surgeons to 'step down' their hand movements and buffer them, operating from a console. buffering out hand tremors too.

You'd be hard pressed to find that in an Irish hospital

I'm talking about haptic assistance, systems that show the surgeon exactly where to cut and how to approach a cut, keep the cut angles correct and lock up when the blade moves outside a predefined "safe zone".

They already exist to some extent, but are not as intelligent or ubiquitous as they will be in the next decade.

magicbastarder wrote: »

in the short term anyway, i can see these road convoys being limited to motorways and the like - in an irish context, places that generally are already served by rail.

Yep, in the short term.

I remember years ago people writing off laptops. They're too slow, too big, battery is crap, screen is crap etc. Most people look at something and see it for what it is, not what it has the potential to become.

magicbastarder · 25-08-2017 3:29pm

eeguy wrote: »

You'd be hard pressed to find that in an Irish hospital .

my father's prostate was removed about seven years ago, using a da vinci robot - the surgeon was about 15 feet from him at the time; which is obviously one of the things i was referring to. you can program that so that for every 1cm the surgeon's hand moves, the cutting blade on the robot will move 1mm, say. they're mad looking things:

4068ac1elhodqr · 25-08-2017 3:33pm

LeinsterDub wrote: »

It's had zero success. They've fired a cart down a 100 metre long tube at less than 100 miles per hour. This isn't anything new and it's the equivalent of throwing a toy rocket in to the sky and claiming we've mad great progress getting to the moon. This idea isn't new Jules Vern was writing about it 170 years ago

That was actually a pod doing 190mph in a 500m tube at DevLoop site in Nevada, the project is heavily backed up by just a few million $$$.

Similar companies and investments are appearing around the world based on this friction-less technology.

The theoretical top speed is 670mph (1080kmph), which would leave all other land based, and indeed some air transport in the shade.

bk · 25-08-2017 3:34pm

magicbastarder wrote: »

in the short term anyway, i can see these road convoys being limited to motorways and the like - in an irish context, places that generally are already served by rail.

Sure, I agree on the first point, but on the later point, nothing stopping freight companies from using rail today, yet rail freight continues to be less then 1% of all freight carried in Ireland today.

The reality is even having a driver in the cab today is quiet a good bit cheaper then rail freight in Ireland for a variety of reasons.

Road freight companies would be looking to reduce this cost even further from their already lower cost base.

Another strong possibility is remotely operated trucks. A "driver" sitting in an office somewhere, remotely controls the truck when it is in the docks, remotely drives it out through the city onto the motorway and then leaves it go into self driving mode until it hits the next city where he takes over control again. Obviously the one remote driver would be switching between multiple trucks.

25-08-2017 3:40pm

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Until I see any actual progress I will be calling hyperloop the fevered dream of mad men

Commercial maglev trains are already a thing, in China they carry passengers I'm pretty sure (might be wrong), Japan has them at testing/construction stage and they will carry passengers in the future.

magicbastarder · 25-08-2017 3:46pm

heh - one stream of debate on the thread is how a new rail system is the future, another stream is how rail is insuffiicient as it's too limited in where it can go.

magicbastarder · 25-08-2017 3:56pm

bk wrote: »

Though I do wonder if buses will survive the upcoming self driving revolution at all!

this is one claim i keep seeing that i've yet to understand fully/be convinced on; i might need to do more reading on it. i'm not sure whether it's because we're expecting a higher rate of car ownership with self driving cars; or whether people will be more inclined to carpool?

plodder · 25-08-2017 3:57pm

maglev isn't coming to Ireland any time soon, but these road trains could well be. The difference between them and rail is that the transition from convoy to non-convoy is not just seamless; it's invisible. The driver will just press a button (or hear a warning signal) and that's it. He takes control leaves the convoy and continues his journey. Rail will never be able to compete with that, outside of certain niches areas.

magicbastarder wrote:

this is one claim i keep seeing that i've yet to understand fully/be convinced on; i might need to do more reading on it. i'm not sure whether it's because we're expecting a higher rate of car ownership with self driving cars; or whether people will be more inclined to carpool?

I'm sceptical about that aspect too. We've had car pooling schemes already. I don't really see how self-driving is linked to car pooling specifically.

4068ac1elhodqr · 25-08-2017 3:59pm

HGV/Lorry driving is the common job in the USA, the new self driving trucks (in convoy) is going to hit these blue collar drivers like a lorry.

eeguy · 25-08-2017 4:02pm

Layne Rotten Colon wrote: »

HGV/Lorry driving is the common job in the USA, the new self driving trucks (in convoy) is going to hit these blue collar drivers like a lorry.

Yep, the writings on the wall for them.

Taxi drivers in New York called for a 50 year ban on autonomous development last year. They were rightly ignored.

4068ac1elhodqr · 25-08-2017 4:06pm

eeguy wrote: »

Yep, the writings on the wall for them.

Taxi drivers in New York called for a 50 year ban on autonomous development last year. They were rightly ignored.

Agree, there is some small growth for drivers up to 2020, but some folks think Phase4 near 100% utopian autonomous adoption could occur as soon as 2026-30.

eezipc · 25-08-2017 4:08pm

Driverless buses are already in Tallinn. Was on one today. https://www.eu2017.ee/news/press-releases/driverless-buses-arrive-tallinn

4068ac1elhodqr · 25-08-2017 4:12pm

This topic is directly related to UBI (basic income guarantees), so that the new inevitable 'AU plated' transport will be welcomed, not feared.

magicbastarder · 25-08-2017 4:13pm

plodder wrote: »

I'm sceptical about that aspect too. We've had car pooling schemes already. I don't really see how self-driving is linked to car pooling specifically.

we've had car pooling, we have short term car rental schemes like go car (or even taxis), and we've long term rental also. the main barrier lifted with autonomous driving is ability to drive (be it driver training or even driver sobriety), but i suppose the question is - in an era of autonomous vehicles - will i still choose to get the bus into the city centre/to galway? what was preventing me from driving before - cost of my own car, or ability to drive, or....?

i guess one possibility would be that there would be an app where i could input 'i want to go from A to B at approx. 7 this evening' and a people carrier would swing by and pick me up along with other people nearby it has matched to me with similar transport requirements; but this should be possible (albeit more expensive) with a human driver. would be curious if it's ever been tried.

LeinsterDub · 25-08-2017 4:14pm

end of the road wrote: »

type-writers are not a valid comparison to rail freight. rail freight can be competitive in ireland with a policy shift toards it. it would require breaking the stranglehold of the road hauliers but it will be worth it once done. greater use of rail freight will be cheaper then paying all those fines for carbon emissions as well i'd bet. electric trucks will still require a lot of energy to power them all which will have to come from burning something and in a lot more quantities.

How many 10's billions do you think this would require?

LeinsterDub · 25-08-2017 4:22pm

Layne Rotten Colon wrote: »

That was actually a pod doing 190mph in a 500m tube at DevLoop site in Nevada, the project is heavily backed up by just a few million $$$.

Similar companies and investments are appearing around the world based on this friction-less technology.

The theoretical top speed is 670mph (1080kmph), which would leave all other land based, and indeed some air transport in the shade.

I'd not seen that test. Impressive progress in fairness but still major issues to overcome in order to scale it up and prove it safe.

Self driving buses, trains, trucks etc

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