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Self driving buses, trains, trucks etc

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,478 ✭✭✭eeguy


    plodder wrote: »
    What has stopped Ford or VW from doing this before now? That's what I don't get. Like what's the difference between a network of autonomous cars for rent and human driven ones?


    I suppose it's convenience and control.
    You don't want to trek out to some business park or housing estate to pick up a rental car, but when the car comes to you it's convenient.

    Also, you as the owner don't want some lad stealing or rallying the sh*t out of your nice Tesla, but when the car is driving, recording everything that's going on and the user details are logged you feel safer putting it out for hire.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 47,810 CMod ✭✭✭✭magicbastarder


    bk wrote: »
    However worth pointing out that I'd expect these self driving cars to be small, single seat pod cars, taking up probably 1/4 of the space of a car we have today and for eventually all these pod cars to be communicating with one another and thus optimising the road space
    again though, the technology and benefit of this is already achieveable (already there, too - e.g. the renault twizy); but will people still buy cars based on the 'i might need the extra capacity once a month/twice a year' basis though?


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,055 ✭✭✭plodder


    eeguy wrote: »
    I suppose it's convenience and control.
    You don't want to trek out to some business park or housing estate to pick up a rental car, but when the car comes to you it's convenient.
    True. That overcomes a big limitation of Go car
    Also, you as the owner don't want some lad stealing or rallying the sh*t out of your nice Tesla, but when the car is driving, recording everything that's going on and the user details are logged you feel safer putting it out for hire.
    it's quite a different attitude towards your car though. It's a long way from the personal "pride and joy" idea that motor manufacturers are currently peddling. Maybe it will work more like the Netjets model. You pay a big enough subscription and get a guarantee that some vehicle will be available to you at short notice.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,478 ✭✭✭eeguy


    again though, the technology and benefit of this is already achieveable (already there, too - e.g. the renault twizy); but will people still buy cars based on the 'i might need the extra capacity once a month/twice a year' basis though?

    The big question is "Will people buy cars?"

    When the cost of taxiing or renting a car is a fraction of owning it, when the convenience of having a rental always within 5 minutes of your door, when you factor in not having to maintain, clean, pay for tax and insurance will people even bother buying a car anymore?

    If people aren't buying cars and cars are in use 90% of the time, instead of 5% of the time, will automakers feel a huge pinch?
    In a world where people rent cars, who would ever buy a luxury car?
    Rental cars right now are nearly always bland, economical and reliable, so will that be the future of car design?


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,205 ✭✭✭cruizer101


    plodder wrote: »
    though there would have to be some way to compensate the vehicle at the front for providing the "service" but not directly benefiting.

    Actually they do benefit, a large portion of the total drag force is from the low pressure region at the rear of truck. The overall drag force on the two is less than if separate and gets distributed between the two (not fully sure ratio but suffice to say they both end up with less than if separate). In a three truck one the middle does get more advantage but it is still spread across them.

    I do think it's not far off, it's not much more than adaptive cruise control which is in fair few new cars already. Definite saving to be had.

    Also the idea of not doing it due to job losses is nonsense, so should we never of invented the spinning wheel or computer?


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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 47,810 CMod ✭✭✭✭magicbastarder


    i think the worry here is the expected rate of job losses - that the spinning wheel and computer displaced jobs on a longer timescale. this could be much more of a phase shift.


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 22,153 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    plodder wrote: »
    What has stopped Ford or VW from doing this before now? That's what I don't get. Like what's the difference between a network of autonomous cars for rent and human driven ones?

    Truth is non of the traditional car companies are at all excited by this future. Car pooling and sharing will fundamentally mean they will build and sell less cars. And in particular people who rent on demand will probably less interested in what brand or marketing of the car that arrives, so probably harder to upsell.

    But they are all getting involved in it, GM is a major investor in Ubers competitor Lyft, Ford has set up a IT innovation center developing various sharing tech and self driving tech.

    The reason being that they see that if they don't, then the Uber's, Google's, etc. will. Uber/Google are developing self driving technology and once developed, they can simply do a deal with some no name Chinese car company to build a fleet of 100,000 cars and they will simply slap their brand on it and set them lose on the streets. Similar to Google and Apple do with phones. Car companies are rushing to get ready for this.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 47,810 CMod ✭✭✭✭magicbastarder


    an article touching on one part of research i'm not hearing much about; the word 'autonomous' is usually used for self-driving cars, which implies their driving aids are self-contained, but is there much research being done into cars which talk to each other? surely there could be some robust, low-range (e.g. 500m) signal broadcast by cars - a bit like an IFF signal in airplanes - announcing location, direction, speed, etc.
    would not have to be high bandwidth stuff - plus it could also assist with the issue of cars dealing with cyclists - e.g. if i had a GPS unit on my bike that would warn a car (or HGV) that i was 30m behind, it could have benefits here too.

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/political-science/2017/apr/07/autonomous-vehicles-will-only-work-when-they-stop-pretending-to-be-autonomous


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,756 ✭✭✭✭Del2005


    an article touching on one part of research i'm not hearing much about; the word 'autonomous' is usually used for self-driving cars, which implies their driving aids are self-contained, but is there much research being done into cars which talk to each other? surely there could be some robust, low-range (e.g. 500m) signal broadcast by cars - a bit like an IFF signal in airplanes - announcing location, direction, speed, etc.
    would not have to be high bandwidth stuff - plus it could also assist with the issue of cars dealing with cyclists - e.g. if i had a GPS unit on my bike that would warn a car (or HGV) that i was 30m behind, it could have benefits here too.

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/political-science/2017/apr/07/autonomous-vehicles-will-only-work-when-they-stop-pretending-to-be-autonomous

    Part of the autonomous will be communications. Car A will be going to location C and join a convoy of vehicles travelling to the same location. Similar to the HGV testing announced it'll mean that the majority of cars in the train will be using less energy. As they approach a junction priority will already be assigned so we won't need traffic lights for vehicles, pedestrians will still have lights to stop cars and since they are autonomous they won't be a risk of them running reds.

    When fully autonomous vehicles are out I don't see people buying cars and homes will change to reflect this. Why would you own something that you can't control? People don't care about the taxi or bus that they take, bar that it's clean, so I can't see many owning a vehicle in cities. So therefore we can build without the need to consider cars as autonomous vehicles will be able to use much less space


  • Registered Users Posts: 28,765 ✭✭✭✭end of the road


    eeguy wrote: »
    Didn't people move away from rail because of the stranglehold of rail hauliers?

    the rail hauliers had no strangle hold. there was always road competition. a lot of things caused a movement away from rail freight, some to do with the railway and others to do with government policy and vested interests.

    Protect the rights of the alcohol enjoyers of ireland. Remove all funding from alcohol action ireland now!



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  • Registered Users Posts: 27,632 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko


    i guess one possibility would be that there would be an app where i could input 'i want to go from A to B at approx. 7 this evening' and a people carrier would swing by and pick me up along with other people nearby it has matched to me with similar transport requirements; but this should be possible (albeit more expensive) with a human driver. would be curious if it's ever been tried.
    The International Transport Federation are currently doing a desk study on Dublin and 3 or 4 other cities to model replacing ALL city transports (buses, cars, taxis) with a network of 6 and 12 seater vehicles for shared journeys. They did one city last year (Lisbon possibly) and projected a huge reduction in number of vehicles and a 92% reduction in space taken up by parked cars. This is potentially revolutionary stuff - changing how cities work completely.
    The whole driverless vehicle concept still doesn't sit easy with me.

    That said the lunatics I've encountered on the road overtaking strings of cars on bends recently, etc.... well perhaps driverless cars couldn't be any more dangerous

    That's my immediate reaction - all the 'safety worries' about automated vehicles seems to ignore the current track record of human operated vehicles. We kill 3 or 4 people each week on Irish roads. in the US, about 100 people a day are killed on the roads. The automated drivers won't be falling asleep after driving for 16 hours, or checking WhatsApp on their phone or getting angry with other drivers.

    I do have some concerns about the employment aspects, but it really is inevitable. We need to plan for those issues and manage them.


  • Posts: 0 Alena Wide Duet


    Will Goodbody: Time Government embraced driverless cars

    http://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2017/0826/900030-driverless-cars/
    There are few areas of technology moving as fast right now as autonomous vehicles.

    Hardly a day goes by without some form of an announcement or leak around something incredible that a car, tech or component company is developing in the area.

    That's because some of the biggest names in vehicle manufacturing, mobility and technology are pouring vast sums of money into research and development around self-driving systems.

    Google, Intel, Apple, Toyota, Volvo, Renault-Nissan, BMW, Ford, Uber, Tesla, Bosch, Baidu, GM and many more household corporate names are piling into the space to try to get a head start in what will soon become a vast market.

    Follow the link for the rest


  • Registered Users Posts: 25,488 ✭✭✭✭Mrs OBumble


    Yeah so with buses:

    We currently don't have buses with two doors outside of Dublin. I've never heard a good reason for this. My guess is that the bus companies believe there would be too much of an issue with revenue protection - there are so many scummers here who would jump in without paying if there was a door not under the driver's nose. How's a driverless bus going get over that? How will it cope with 89 year old Bridie who simply won't put her FTP on the reader - she's never had to before and she's just not going to start now. And the tourist from Spain who wants to know how to get to "Dunes es tores" (pronounced Dunnes Stores by most of ye) - yes she has Google maps, but map reading is HARD work for some.

    They'll all be replaced with driverless pool cars, you say? How many seats will be in each one - enough for Mam, Dad and the four kids? Or will the kids be expected to travel separately - how old do you have to be to travel alone? What if the kids car gets there before the parent one - will it hold them inside until the parents arrive? Will they have car seats and booster cushions that magically adapt to the child's age? Ramps that automatically roll out to cater for grandad in his wheelchair? What happens when the passenger starts having a seizure when the car is half-way from Dublin to Galway - if the car's not smart enough to detect that, pull over and call an ambulance, then we have a major reduction in service. What do you do if your pool car arrives, complete with used needles or condoms that the last passenger left in it? How many rural residents will be prepared to wait the extra 20 minutes that a pool car will take to get to their house at times when there's usually low demand - eg at 2am when someone's waters have broken earlier than expected and they'd like to get to the hospital before giving birth, please!

    I'm sure that some driverless technology will be implemented sooner than we think. I'm equally sure it won't be as pervasive as you expect for a LONG time. The issues aren't technical, they are social. And enormous.

    Hell - we've had electric vehicles for maybe 5 years. There's now talk of them being compulsory by what, 2040? that gives some idea of the timeframe for even a small technical change.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,891 ✭✭✭prinzeugen


    This report is a perfect example of why driverless trains (and even trains without guards, aka DOO (Driver only operation) should never happen.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/report-112017-derailment-and-subsequent-collision-at-watford

    EDIT, Link to PDF of the full report https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/636626/R112017_170810_Watford.pdf

    Very, very lucky.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,229 ✭✭✭LeinsterDub


    prinzeugen wrote: »
    This report is a perfect example of why driverless trains (and even trains without guards, aka DOO (Driver only operation) should never happen.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/report-112017-derailment-and-subsequent-collision-at-watford

    Very, very lucky.

    So even if we get to the stage where driverless trains are proven to be safer than human driven trains they shouldn't happen?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,891 ✭✭✭prinzeugen


    So even if we get to the stage where driverless trains are proven to be safer than human driven trains they shouldn't happen?

    Did you read the report? Human thinking averted a more deadly outcome.

    AI will never better human reactions as has been proven by many aircraft accidents. There is one where the pilot actually had to fly the plane after the AI failed rather than just "pilot" it.


  • Posts: 0 Alena Wide Duet


    Colorado to deploy self-driving crash truck to shadow road crews

    https://readwrite.com/2017/08/25/colorado-self-driving-crash-truck/amp/

    Follow the link for the full article
    The Colorado Department of Transportation has said it will deploy a self-driving truck to protect road crews from speeding vehicles by the end of this fall, potentially extending the program to cover all road maintenance if the trial is a success.

    The self-driving truck will act as a “crash truck”, which moves slowly behind road crews. The trucks are currently manned by a single driver, who faces the brunt of the damage if an accident happens.


  • Posts: 0 Alena Wide Duet


    Autonomous shipping trials to start next year

    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-05-16/autonomous-ships-will-be-great
    Last week, Kongsberg Gruppen ASA, a Norwegian maritime-technology firm, and Yara ASA, a fertilizer manufacturer, announced a partnership to build the world's first fully autonomous cargo containership. Manned voyages will start in 2018, and in 2020 the Yara Birkeland will set sail all on its own. It's the beginning of a revolution that should transform one of the world's oldest and most conservative industries -- and make global shipping safer, faster and cleaner than it's ever been.

    The commercial rationale for autonomous ships has long been clear. The U.S. Coast Guard has estimated that human error accounts for up to 96 percent of all marine casualties. A recent surge in piracy is a grim reminder that crews remain vulnerable (and valuable) targets for international criminals. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the industry is facing a chronic shortage of skilled workers who want a career at sea.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,891 ✭✭✭prinzeugen


    DaCor wrote: »
    Colorado to deploy self-driving crash truck to shadow road crews

    https://readwrite.com/2017/08/25/colorado-self-driving-crash-truck/amp/

    Follow the link for the full article

    In effect that is a movable crash barrier, going at slow speed.

    Not even close to a Driverless HGV going at 60 mph.

    AI will only know something has happened after the incident.

    A human can see a incident unfolding and take actions to avoid it. There are 100's, if not millions of dashcam vids on youtube of drivers doing some lightning fast maneuvers to avoid collisions etc.


  • Posts: 0 Alena Wide Duet


    prinzeugen wrote: »
    This report is a perfect example of why driverless trains (and even trains without guards, aka DOO (Driver only operation) should never happen.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/report-112017-derailment-and-subsequent-collision-at-watford

    EDIT, Link to PDF of the full report https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/636626/R112017_170810_Watford.pdf

    Very, very lucky.

    While the quick reactions of both drivers undoubtedly reduced the overall impact, the seconds required to complete the necessary actions could have easily been done in a fraction of a second by automation thereby reducing the impact of the event even further

    While we can argue the specifics all you want, the fact is, in terms of reaction speed, the computer wins every time

    I'd advise a read through the Wikipedia list of train accidents in the UK alone. Just look at the amount attributed to driver error.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_rail_accidents_in_the_United_Kingdom

    If you would like a look at the worldwide situation, simply review the articles linked from here - https://www.google.ie/search?q=train+accident+driver+error


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  • Registered Users Posts: 28,765 ✭✭✭✭end of the road


    the driver can see the incident or hazard before hand meaning they can avoid it. the computer will only react at the last minute, which even at it's speed may not be enough. we are multiple decades off driverless trains on an open network anyway.

    Protect the rights of the alcohol enjoyers of ireland. Remove all funding from alcohol action ireland now!



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,322 ✭✭✭✭jimmycrackcorm


    the driver can see the incident or hazard before hand meaning they can avoid it. the computer will only react at the last minute, which even at it's speed may not be enough. we are multiple decades off driverless trains on an open network anyway.


    AI will be able to more accurately determine the outcome of different possibilities than a human can. But the most significant aspect of newer AI is that it is now done by machine learning. For example Tesla is collecting lots of data from it's users cars. Machine learning will mean that it gets the benefit of more experience than any single human can.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,315 ✭✭✭Pkiernan


    prinzeugen wrote: »
    In effect that is a movable crash barrier, going at slow speed.

    Not even close to a Driverless HGV going at 60 mph.

    AI will only know something has happened after the incident.

    A human can see a incident unfolding and take actions to avoid it. There are 100's, if not millions of dashcam vids on youtube of drivers doing some lightning fast maneuvers to avoid collisions etc.

    You seem to be missing the blindingly massive point that ALL car crashes are due to human error.....
    There are no such thing as accidents. They should be called negligents.


  • Posts: 0 Alena Wide Duet


    prinzeugen wrote: »
    In effect that is a movable crash barrier, going at slow speed.

    Not even close to a Driverless HGV going at 60 mph.

    Not sure that I made that comparison. The point this is getting extended in its usage e.g. starting with Tesla, now crash barrier, next HGV's etc etc
    prinzeugen wrote: »
    AI will only know something has happened after the incident.

    Not necessarily. These things are being designed to communicate with each other
    prinzeugen wrote: »
    A human can see a incident unfolding and take actions to avoid it. There are 100's, if not millions of dashcam vids on youtube of drivers doing some lightning fast maneuvers to avoid collisions etc.

    For every one video showing someone reacting quick enough to avoid a crash there is 50 showing where the reaction time was too slow to avoid an impact.


  • Posts: 0 Alena Wide Duet


    Pkiernan wrote: »
    You seem to be missing the blindingly massive point that ALL car crashes are due to human error.....
    There are no such thing as accidents. They should be called negligents.

    I'd wager that insurance premiums will, over time, factor in the use of AI into the calculations.


  • Registered Users Posts: 961 ✭✭✭aliveandkicking


    For anyone interested in this kind of stuff I'd highly recommend this article and particularly for those dismissing the idea that fully self driving vehicles are multiple decades away, you definitely need to read it!

    It's long but well worth even reading the first section.

    https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 47,810 CMod ✭✭✭✭magicbastarder


    Partially driverless trucks to be on UK roads by 2019
    http://jrnl.ie/3564121
    there's a martyn turner cartoon in yesterday's irish times, along the lines of 'britain wants driverless juggernauts? sure they have it already with brexit'.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,363 ✭✭✭✭Del.Monte


    To simple little old me the 'driving' force behind driverless anything is money and nothing to do with safety - whether you're a haulage contractor or the manufacturer of the latest wonder of technology. The bottom line is king and the ordinary people are only there to be ground down for profit.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,478 ✭✭✭eeguy


    Del.Monte wrote: »
    To simple little old me the 'driving' force behind driverless anything is money and nothing to do with safety - whether you're a haulage contractor or the manufacturer of the latest wonder of technology. The bottom line is king and the ordinary people are only there to be ground down for profit.

    Tin foil hat much?
    Millions die each year from road deaths. There's hardly a family in Ireland who hasn't lost someone.
    Add in safety with more efficient driving, with freeing up peoples time, with giving mobility to people who don't have it. And having 24/7 services and scheduling haulage so it runs through the night to even out road use.

    I can't wait for fully autonomous vehicles.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,229 ✭✭✭LeinsterDub


    Del.Monte wrote: »
    To simple little old me the 'driving' force behind driverless anything is money and nothing to do with safety - whether you're a haulage contractor or the manufacturer of the latest wonder of technology. The bottom line is king and the ordinary people are only there to be ground down for profit.

    That's the way of the world. Once something becomes cheaper than something else it's becomes worth it for some. Once it's cheaper and more efficient it becomes worth it for most. Just look at solar. For years green types were telling us that it was better for the environment and we should use it regardless of the cost. Now it's cheaper than oil and gas people are using solar regardless of the environmental positives


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