Brexit Referendum Superthread

In fairness the UK is an important trading partner. We will be worse off after this.

steddyeddy wrote: »

There is literally nothing about the man that says otherwise. Frankie Boyle described him as a cross between a brain injury and an unmade bed.

It would be foolish to underestimate Bojo's political cunning. He believes in nothing that he says, other than to further his own ambitions, but he also knows how to play the media to keep himself current and how to play to the mob gallery for cheers as a former "journalist". He is by no means 'stupid' in the sense of knowing how to exploit people for his own material gain or scheming. An intelligent or capable politician he is not however, so don't mistake what I've written for any sort of praise or acknowledgement of the man. He is a baboon. A dangerous baboon because he understands how to use charisma to manipulate people.

steddyeddy wrote: »

In fairness the UK is an important trading partner. We will be worse off after this.

If we do nothing, that's true. If we take action and switch/expand our trade with the rest of the EU, we can mitigate the adverse effects and possibly even come out better off.

I suspect any moral debt, on us being left to burn, 8 years ago, by EU, is being called in.

View wrote:

If we do nothing, that's true. If we take action and switch/expand our trade with the rest of the EU, we can mitigate the adverse effects and possibly even come out better off.

That's a bit simplistic. We have been diversifying our exports and reducing dependence on the UK since we joined the EU. But for some industries, nearby markets are always going to be most important, especially when you have a common language. You can sell and deliver things to Manchester or Nottingham overnight.

The fresh food sector is probably the most exposed to any delays or tarrifs because both delivery times and margins are tight. However the UK can't feed itself so it will always need imports.

But there will be disruption and cost to Brexit; that is inevitable.

joeysoap wrote: »

I'd be surprised if the UK put tariffs on foodstuffs coming into the UK. No surer way to ramp up inflation than increase the cost of foodstuffs in the shops.

Uk will make a good fist of supplying themselves but will still need imports to keep the cost down, otherwise UK producers will have a bonanza.

There's one thing we know for certain about the UK's plans for Brexit - that nobody has given them any proper thought.

The UK is going to lose out incredibly badly on this simply because they're going to end up fire-fighting for the next decade to try and stop their economy going down the toilet. So they'll have to have low tariffs on incoming foodstuffs to keep inflation down, but their exports won't get lower tariffs in return.

The only way to give themselves a modicum of stability in the short-term is to take the Norwegian approach, join the EEA and then they'll have some breathing space to draw up long-plans for withdrawing from the EEA.

joeysoap wrote:

I'd be surprised if the UK put tariffs on foodstuffs coming into the UK. No surer way to ramp up inflation than increase the cost of foodstuffs in the shops.

They'll put tariffs on foodstuffs that competes with their own. E.g. beef.

steddyeddy wrote: »

We will be worse off after this.

Everyone will be worse off after this.

That's the entire economic argument for the Single Market - it is win-win and everyone is better off inside. Thatcher was a big fan for this reason. When someone leaves, it is lose-lose, and everyone is worse off.

Sam Russell wrote: »

They are not self-sufficient in beef.

They won't be self-sufficient in fruit or veg either when the crops rot in the fields and orchards for lack of migrant workers to pick them.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/13/great-repeal-bill-human-rights-clause-sets-up-brexit-clash-with-labour


Human rights pfft we aren't Human we're British

Sam Russell wrote:

During WW II they had at most six weeks of food available. The Gov relied on the black market to oil the distribution and raise morale as getting an amount off ration was seen as a great thing.

Ration books would fit well with the post Brexit mood of defiance and victimhood.

There are a lot of things that need to be done to make sure Brexit does the minimum damage all round.

However, putting on my project management hat for a minute, there are two massive problems with Brexit facing the UK right now: lack of strategy, and lack of ability to implement that strategy.

Strategy: they don't really have one. Nor do they seem to be capable of formulating one. The UK government is divided on fundamental issues, with little sign of any consensus emerging. This is a critical problem: without an agreed strategy there is no way to move towards detailed plans. Action towards any objectives first requires clear objectives, and these simply don't exist yet.

Implementation: firstly the current cabinet is packed with incompetents, and I include the PM in that. Executing something as challenging as Brexit requires top class politicians at the top of their game working in unison. The bunch of deadbeats leading the UK now are so out of their depth it's almost comical. Johnson as Foreign Secretary, when he is so obviously unsuited to the role, is just one example.

Secondly, the civil service doesn't seem to have the manpower, resources or skill sets to implement a Brexit plan in the time remaining before the Brexit clock runs out. If the cabinet do manage to cobble together a strategy, and then a plan, and it survives the negotations with the EU-27, I can't see that there will be much time left to implement it.

Conclusion: Brexit is going to be an utter disaster. Not because it has to be, but because there are idiots running the UK.

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A few years ago, because it was in that country's Govn'ts best interest, Argentina suspended exports of beef.
Is this what UK wants to rely on, into the future?