Aussie dollar falling

catbear wrote: »

1992. That's a couple of generations who've never known a recession.

There was a dip in 08 when the global markets tanked but then Australia took the ascendent chinese commodities escalator whilst everywhere else went down. Before that happened though the Australia government did up the deposit guarantee to a quarter of a million dollars so there were jitters already about their finance sector.

This reduced risk pushed money into bank deposits and then banks lent that back into the property market and with low interest rates property funds looked more attractive etc.....basically slapping a turbo on it and filling the car with airplane fuel.

Added to that this is the beginning of the babyboomer retirees who'll want to sell up their negatively geared investment properties once they can no longer avail of that income tax break.

The Australian economy has never 'tanked' since the '30s. It has had downturns but has never delivered social misery such as Ireland has recently experienced.

The 'worst' unemployment rate since the end of WW2 was 11% in around '93. Since WW2, unemplyment over 10% has only pertained for 4-5 years in total.

Ironically, it was in the mid '90s that I bought my first house in Perth with a roughly 60% deposit and paid off the mortgage within a year. Tough times.

I absolutely agree that Australian residential property seems completely bonkers and over-valued and due for a correction. It would rather suit me if that happened. Despite the predictions I see no signs of it. Perth is an exception. The East coast seems quite impervious to reason. Iron ore prices are booming. I can't see Australia's economy 'tanking' until China's does.

catbear wrote: »

I looked up the block I used to rent near the city centre and average rent appears to be 2/3 of what we were paying in 2014!

The apartment that i am currently renting when built was renting for $600 per week i am currently paying $360 per week.

We,ve just had the budget. No cut to negative gearing. Nothing to stem the price rise tide. The only thing that can turn the Oz house price cruiser round is a rapid rise in interest rates. There was an ozzie bank transaction tax but i think it will take us inflation rises & usa interest rate rises to force the reserve bank to raise rates in Oz.

Ireland wasnt in charge of interest rates or able to devalue its currency. This is why the crash was so painful.
Oz cant do much with interest rates, but the currency will tank once Sydney pops.

Perth house prices still dropping although office occupancy on the up. Minerals fairly stagnant but I hear jobs are becoming available again.

Sydney and Melbourne booming. It's a fine balancing act and hard to call.

Was shocked to see the dollar down to 67c this week. What's the view regarding Brexit and potential valuation of the Euro? Also talks of a cooling on the east coast of Oz. Have a lot of cash tied up there

The AUD is doing surprisingly well.
AUDS.ASX is up 16% in 6 months. That is an ETF that banks on a strong Australian dollar.

I would never close that account. It would have been a good idea to have opened a high interest online savings account before moving back. If you haven't changed your residential address for your bank account from it's Australian address yet, move quick and you might still still be able to open one, or perhaps better yet, put the money into their best rate term deposit, with it set to roll over on maturity and with the interest reinvested in it and forget about it for a couple of decades and let compound interest amaze you.

be Irish banks pay effectively no interest whereas you could getting almost 1.5 % in an Australian account and that will likely improve if the world pulls out of this cheap money morass it's in.

If the Reserve Bank of Australia raises interest rates, The A$ could rise in value a bit as Australian interest rates are usually some of the highest in the world and money would head for it - in theory, pushing up the cost of A$

Long story short, IMO, you are far better off with money in Oz than in Ireland, unless you don't save or invest for the future, in which case it doesn't matter.

You probably should have opened an OZforex account before moving back. Have a look at Revolut.com and get their app for your phone. I haven't actually used them myself yet for currency transfer and conversion, but if they live up to the claims and hype, they might be even better than Currencyfair.

Passports don't have addresses in them, they are only used for identity verification, not place of residence.

niva*sis wrote: »

Forecast for the dollar to hit the .50cent mark for the euro next year. Pretty frightening for those planning on moving home.

A flood of money leaving the banks I wonder?