Aussie dollar falling

catbear · 10-05-2017 9:56am

If remember rightly the exodus from Irish bank shares started in February 07 and the likes of AIB fell from around €20 to cents by sept 08.

I think the savings war started summer 07 where they banks fought to get in as much capital as possible. By then it was too late.

Its amazing thinking back on it now that there were many people who bought bank shares and thought they'd get back what they paid for them. They'd probably been used to savings bonds which always been more popular in the past.

res ipsa · 11-05-2017 2:03am

Ireland wasnt in charge of interest rates or able to devalue its currency. This is why the crash was so painful.
Oz cant do much with interest rates, but the currency will tank once Sydney pops.

res ipsa · 16-06-2017 1:13pm

Sydney price fall last month. The vested interests tell us that first house buyers are waiting till July for stamp duty concessions...we will see...

Timistry · 01-07-2017 7:25pm

Perth house prices still dropping although office occupancy on the up. Minerals fairly stagnant but I hear jobs are becoming available again.

Sydney and Melbourne booming. It's a fine balancing act and hard to call.

Was shocked to see the dollar down to 67c this week. What's the view regarding Brexit and potential valuation of the Euro? Also talks of a cooling on the east coast of Oz. Have a lot of cash tied up there

cnocbui · 02-07-2017 7:52pm

Bank interest rates and not having DIRT are far more important than exchange rates, IMO. Ireland is a Bermuda Triangle for cash and investments in general.

res ipsa · 16-07-2017 1:49pm

The AUD is doing surprisingly well.
AUDS.ASX is up 16% in 6 months. That is an ETF that banks on a strong Australian dollar.

Lara_Croft.ie · 04-11-2017 10:20pm

Hi Guys...

I have moved back to Ireland after working in Australia. I have a savings account still active and i am now deciding i should close it and transfer the money back home. I am just wondering about:

1. Will the Aus Dollar get stronger or weaker against the Euro in the next few months? Currently it is 1 AUD = .66 Cents EUR

2. What is the best way to transfer my money home to Ireland? I have looked into Currency Fair but i am finding it difficult to register with them as i have two home addresses and they need alot of proof of just one address...i.e. my passport would be a different address to the address my bills are sent too....

Hope to hear from you soon! Thanks

cnocbui · 05-11-2017 12:01pm

I would never close that account. It would have been a good idea to have opened a high interest online savings account before moving back. If you haven't changed your residential address for your bank account from it's Australian address yet, move quick and you might still still be able to open one, or perhaps better yet, put the money into their best rate term deposit, with it set to roll over on maturity and with the interest reinvested in it and forget about it for a couple of decades and let compound interest amaze you.

be Irish banks pay effectively no interest whereas you could getting almost 1.5 % in an Australian account and that will likely improve if the world pulls out of this cheap money morass it's in.

If the Reserve Bank of Australia raises interest rates, The A$ could rise in value a bit as Australian interest rates are usually some of the highest in the world and money would head for it - in theory, pushing up the cost of A$

Long story short, IMO, you are far better off with money in Oz than in Ireland, unless you don't save or invest for the future, in which case it doesn't matter.

You probably should have opened an OZforex account before moving back. Have a look at Revolut.com and get their app for your phone. I haven't actually used them myself yet for currency transfer and conversion, but if they live up to the claims and hype, they might be even better than Currencyfair.

Passports don't have addresses in them, they are only used for identity verification, not place of residence.

niva*sis · 21-04-2018 7:36am

Forecast for the dollar to hit the .50cent mark for the euro next year. Pretty frightening for those planning on moving home.

Tigerandahalf · 21-04-2018 8:42am

niva*sis wrote: »

Forecast for the dollar to hit the .50cent mark for the euro next year. Pretty frightening for those planning on moving home.

A flood of money leaving the banks I wonder?

cnocbui · 21-04-2018 3:10pm

niva*sis wrote: »

Forecast for the dollar to hit the .50cent mark for the euro next year. Pretty frightening for those planning on moving home.

But great for those planning on going in the other direction.

Every cloud has a silver lining.

Those heading back to Ireland could do worse than plonk their money into Australian investments, keep their bank accounts and enable online banking and then only shift money back when the exchange rate improves.

Be aware that once you move back you will no longer be able to open any new accounts or term deposits once back.

Peregrinus · 21-04-2018 3:31pm

cnocbui wrote: »

Those heading back to Ireland could do worse than plonk their money into Australian investments, keep their bank accounts and enable online banking and then only shift money back when the exchange rate improves.

Assuming, of course, that their powers of future-predicting are good enough that they can be confident that it will improve!

cnocbui · 21-04-2018 3:48pm

Peregrinus wrote: »

Assuming, of course, that their powers of future-predicting are good enough that they can be confident that it will improve!

Very true.

The next financial markets meltdown likely isn't far off so it would probably drop even lower than it is at present, judging by the last one. The next one will be worse I think because Chinese debt pigeons will come home to roost and what's bad for China will be bad for Oz. Still, i think it might pop a bit before then.

lg123 · 22-04-2018 11:23am

niva*sis wrote: »

Forecast for the dollar to hit the .50cent mark for the euro next year. Pretty frightening for those planning on moving home.

Hi niva, where'd you get this?

niva*sis · 10-09-2018 11:56pm

The rate at the moment is shocking!!! ðŸ˜

Brianb8802 · 04-07-2019 12:09pm

The dollar was going quite bad at the end of June when it was at its lowest point for 4 years skirting around at 0.60, outlook was pretty bleak. Now it's back up to 0.62 after a good two weeks trading, still pretty bad historically mind you but positive none the less.

After 10 years we're going to move back to Ireland next year and now have to toss up the gamble of transferring the lump sum savings back now or this time next year.

I know the basis of the economies are very different but I find it hard not to compare Australia's to Ireland's back in the day. Especially the construction and property sectors.

How is everybodies else's crystal ball looking.

cnocbui · 04-07-2019 4:03pm

I'm an Australian who has been in Ireland the past 20 years and I can't wait to get out and go back to Australia.

I wouldn't begin to profess to have a crystal ball regarding future exchange rates but my gut feeling is I doubt the A$ will fall further. It might if Trump succeeds in jump starting the next recession and China's economic activity declines for a while, but long term I would expect China and Australia to bounce back.

Make sure you don't close your Australian bank accounts and I might suggest opening an Ozforex account to transfer any funds back to Ireland with. It might also be an idea to open an online share trading account via ANZ or Commonwealth bnk before moving, as I don't think you will ever find any investment vehicle over here that can begin match Oz share market dividends.

As for transferring the funds, you could always do half now and half next year to cover your bases.

pearcider · 04-07-2019 10:55pm

Brianb8802 wrote: »

The dollar was going quite bad at the end of June when it was at its lowest point for 4 years skirting around at 0.60, outlook was pretty bleak. Now it's back up to 0.62 after a good two weeks trading, still pretty bad historically mind you but positive none the less.

After 10 years we're going to move back to Ireland next year and now have to toss up the gamble of transferring the lump sum savings back now or this time next year.

I know the basis of the economies are very different but I find it hard not to compare Australia's to Ireland's back in the day. Especially the construction and property sectors.

How is everybodies else's crystal ball looking.

My opinion I’d get out now as AUD is going a lot lower. The property crash is only getting started there but end result will be worse than Ireland. As we were tied to the euro, we were forced to take the pain instead of devaluation which is the RBA policy since before this thread got started. However the central bankers have only postponed the pop and blown more air into the credit bubble. Thus making the inevitable correction even more painful. The mortgage stress hasn’t even begun in Oz. When it does, it will sink the big banks. The writing is on the wall. Watch this video.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Fn0UdhisePw

The AUD will truly tank when the government is forced to recapitalize and more than likely nationalise them. It’s going to be an absolute sh*tshow. Think Ireland in late 2008. And then some. Except we had the EU to bail us out. Oz has the printing press...The Oz government went nuts with their tax incentives negative gearing and that. My guess is the big 4 banks are all one credit crisis away from insolvency just like Anglo Irish bank was. The fact only one of them passed on the full recent rate cut is telling. Get out now. If you’re converting to EUR put 10% into gold and 10% into USD as a hedge. It sucks that we are in this situation where our own hard earned cash is at risk by reckless governments and central bankers. But you have the tools to protect yourself. Best of luck.

Low Energy Eng · 05-07-2019 2:18am

Or China could stimulate like last time and commodity prices go nuts which would be bullish.
Just putting it out there.

yagan · 05-07-2019 11:28am

Low Energy Eng wrote: »

Or China could stimulate like last time and commodity prices go nuts which would be bullish.
Just putting it out there.

That's a good point, but even then commodity capacity has been expanded significantly since 08 and the boon has been reabsorbed into Australia's domestic debt bubble.

A long slow debt deflation with defaults, devalutions and nationalisations seem inevitable.

FernandoTorres · 07-07-2019 11:34am

pearcider wrote: »

My opinion I’d get out now as AUD is going a lot lower. The property crash is only getting started there but end result will be worse than Ireland. As we were tied to the euro, we were forced to take the pain instead of devaluation which is the RBA policy since before this thread got started. However the central bankers have only postponed the pop and blown more air into the credit bubble. Thus making the inevitable correction even more painful. The mortgage stress hasn’t even begun in Oz. When it does, it will sink the big banks. The writing is on the wall. Watch this video.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Fn0UdhisePw

The AUD will truly tank when the government is forced to recapitalize and more than likely nationalise them. It’s going to be an absolute sh*tshow. Think Ireland in late 2008. And then some. Except we had the EU to bail us out. Oz has the printing press...The Oz government went nuts with their tax incentives negative gearing and that. My guess is the big 4 banks are all one credit crisis away from insolvency just like Anglo Irish bank was. The fact only one of them passed on the full recent rate cut is telling. Get out now. If you’re converting to EUR put 10% into gold and 10% into USD as a hedge. It sucks that we are in this situation where our own hard earned cash is at risk by reckless governments and central bankers. But you have the tools to protect yourself. Best of luck.

What scenario are you predicting where the Australian economy crashes, along with the property market and banks yet Europe/Ireland continues as normal? The only thing that will crash the Australian economy is a large, global crash which would affect Ireland and Europe even more. Australia has very low national debt in comparison and has a lot more tools to weather a storm.

Just look back to the start of this thread where people were predicting the Australian collapse 6 years ago. The reality is, nobody has a clue.

yagan · 07-07-2019 2:48pm

FernandoTorres wrote: »

What scenario are you predicting where the Australian economy crashes, along with the property market and banks yet Europe/Ireland continues as normal? The only thing that will crash the Australian economy is a large, global crash which would affect Ireland and Europe even more. Australia has very low national debt in comparison and has a lot more tools to weather a storm.

Just look back to the start of this thread where people were predicting the Australian collapse 6 years ago. The reality is, nobody has a clue.

You only have to see the effect on the Aus$ once China announced its stimulus splurge in Oct 2008, it rocketed.

Essentially the Australian economic wagon switched to the Chinese car and left avoided the worst effects of the GFC, becoming in the transition effectively an extension of the Chinese economy.

pearcider · 07-07-2019 9:54pm

FernandoTorres wrote: »

What scenario are you predicting where the Australian economy crashes, along with the property market and banks yet Europe/Ireland continues as normal? The only thing that will crash the Australian economy is a large, global crash which would affect Ireland and Europe even more. Australia has very low national debt in comparison and has a lot more tools to weather a storm.

Just look back to the start of this thread where people were predicting the Australian collapse 6 years ago. The reality is, nobody has a clue.

The oz collapse should have happened 6 years ago but the central banks dropped the interest rates to near zero. The collapse has been postponed. The collapse will still happen. It’s just going to be much worse now.

Look at the stats pal, people can’t pay their mortgages and oz cities are full of half finished developments. The game is over.

Low Energy Eng · 08-07-2019 2:06am

I've seen Brisbane absorbing a freakish amount of over supply of apartments and it seems to be fine.
Sydney and melbs have been correcting for 2 years but with recent rate drops, apra loosening requirements and government giving tax handouts, I reckon this show has some more stream in it.

FernandoTorres · 08-07-2019 11:22am

pearcider wrote: »

The oz collapse should have happened 6 years ago but the central banks dropped the interest rates to near zero. The collapse has been postponed. The collapse will still happen. It’s just going to be much worse now.

Look at the stats pal, people can’t pay their mortgages and oz cities are full of half finished developments. The game is over.

What stats are you looking at? The mortgage delinquency rate in Australia is 1.5% for over 90 days arrears. This compares to 6% in "booming" Ireland.

I live in Melbourne and am not seeing many abandoned developments anywhere near the city. I'm sure there are many in the outskirts but that's always the case with property booms. I'm not disputing that the economy will slow but I think many Irish are too quick to jump to the doomsday scenario due to the experience there. The Australian economy is a lot more diversified and most recessions are a lot less explosive.

Sexual Chocolate · 10-07-2019 2:30am

From a construction worker point of view the industry did quiteten down slightly after September last year in Sydney I found and others actually believe that it starting going that way at the beginning of (ozzy) winter. Still fairly much happening though, especially out towards the western suburbs.

However what Sydney might consider quite Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide or Perth would call a boom.

AngryHippie · 10-07-2019 3:06am

FernandoTorres wrote: »

What stats are you looking at? The mortgage delinquency rate in Australia is 1.5% for over 90 days arrears. This compares to 6% in "booming" Ireland.
.

Ghost estates everywhere Ted

someday2010 · 06-08-2019 12:33am

It’s tanking...

cnocbui · 06-08-2019 1:32pm

Can you define tanking for me, as it's up 0.95% against the Euro the past 24hrs?

rainybillwill · 06-08-2019 3:37pm

cnocbui wrote: »

Can you define tanking for me, as it's up 0.95% against the Euro the past 24hrs?

To be fair it had dropped a lot when they posted. Started to recover after, maybe they effected the markets

johnnyfruitcake · 06-08-2019 3:44pm

What's the near future for the dollar? Will it freefall after brexit or will it matter?

Have a large sum still in oz, any advice what to do with it?

cnocbui · 06-08-2019 4:25pm

The UK is only 8th in trade rankings, so I don't see that Brexit should have any bearing on the AU$, whatsoever. I don't see any reason for the AU$ to 'freefall' unless some idiot lobs nukes at China.

If you are not risk averse, you could plonk your money in Vanguards VHY ETF and enjoy over 7% annual dividend, paid quarterly. For my money that's a safer bet than trying to guess currency trading with a raving belligerent loon at the helm of the world's largest economy.

cnocbui · 06-08-2019 4:45pm

rainybillwill wrote: »

To be fair it had dropped a lot when they posted. Started to recover after, maybe they effected the markets

With such an unprecedented ability to pick the exact bottom of a market like that, he should be a currency trader.

In the preceding 24 hrs, the AU$ fell about 1 cent vs the € - a 1.6% change is hardly tanking. Look to yesterdays US share market if you want to see tanking.

Tigerandahalf · 06-08-2019 5:55pm

The trade war between China and the US seems to be getting worse which should weaken both currencies. That you would think will also draw the Oz dollar lower. If there is less demand from China it will drag it lower again. No major crisis days have happened yet with bank and other company shares.

mandrake04 · 07-08-2019 2:52pm

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

The trade war between China and the US seems to be getting worse which should weaken both currencies.

Part of the Perfect storm which will send Europe into recession, Germany sells a disproportionate amount of goods to both countries and its industrial output is down 5% compared to last year. If you google they were down in the first quarter just waiting on the results of the 2nd and with likely no deal on brexit not good for the €

cnocbui · 07-08-2019 3:24pm

Let's face it, there is pretty much nothing to be optimistic about anywhere. It's a case of pick your poison.

Brianb8802 · 22-02-2021 2:38am

Seems to be some significant gains going on for the Aussie dollar over the last few months. Any idea what's driving it?

AUD to USD is performing even better.

cnocbui · 22-02-2021 2:42am

Huge iron ore sales to China and the country's near covid free state, would be my guess.

I wasn't too far off: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2021/02/22/Australian-Dollar-Outlook-Rising-Iron-and-Copper-Prices-to-Bolster-AUDUSD.html

Aussie dollar falling

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