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Aussie dollar falling

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,512 Sundy


    I fear my trip home to Ireland is going to be very costly :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,826 ✭✭✭✭ cnocbui


    Watch out belowwwwww.......


  • Registered Users Posts: 330 ✭✭ statina


    .61 today :-(

    Hopefully things will steady again in the next couple of weeks


  • Registered Users Posts: 525 ✭✭✭ In Exile


    statina wrote: »
    .61 today :-(

    Hopefully things will steady again in the next couple of weeks

    I had planned on heading to the States for my 30th next year. Suddenly a decent trip has gone from costing about $6-7k to at least $10k for a holiday.

    I pity anyone going home soon if it doesn't bounce back. It will cost a fortune


  • Registered Users Posts: 812 ✭✭✭ rightyabe


    Thankfully I sent a slab home at around 71cents that'll do me over xmas. Feel sick watching my savings I was planning on sending home drop **** loads.


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  • Moderators, Regional Abroad Moderators Posts: 5,364 Mod ✭✭✭✭ aido79


    rightyabe wrote: »
    Thankfully I sent a slab home at around 71cents that'll do me over xmas. Feel sick watching my savings I was planning on sending home drop **** loads.

    The flip side of that is the money you missed out from the extra interest you could have earned by keeping the money in Australia compared to the almost non existant interest rate with Irish banks.


  • Registered Users Posts: 618 ✭✭✭ gudede


    I can see it heading towards 0.56 cent in the next month or so, China is ****ed and Australia wasnt in a real healthy place before China's devaluation. Sell the Dollar for 4-5 months and then buy it back when it increases.


  • Registered Users Posts: 879 ✭✭✭ witnessrenegade


    Just home from Oz, woke up yesterday to transfer my funds, nearly had a heart attack! Keeping a close eye on it so hopefully it moves a small bit back to what it was before the weekend before I send it


  • Moderators, Regional Abroad Moderators Posts: 5,364 Mod ✭✭✭✭ aido79


    gudede wrote: »
    I can see it heading towards 0.56 cent in the next month or so, China is ****ed and Australia wasnt in a real healthy place before China's devaluation. Sell the Dollar for 4-5 months and then buy it back when it increases.

    Is that a wild guess or expert advice on how the dollar will perform in the coming months?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭ catbear


    aido79 wrote: »
    Is that a wild guess or expert advice on how the dollar will perform in the coming months?
    It all depends on China. If chinese companies are suspend spending on core commodities form Australia the demand for the Aus$ is only going to weaken.

    If the Chinese government steps in, suspends trading etc and announces another investment spree then we'll see a bounce back.

    However internationally there may also a general sell off of Australians stock to reduce exposure to China so sentiment may already be against Aus$.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 309 ✭✭ Undertow


    I plan on moving home in the new year so had to bite the bullet with all my savings yesterday at 0.62. Lost sooo much lately and feel so sick because of it. The pressure will be on me from the get-go to get a job. :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,280 ✭✭✭ commited


    Jesus wept, I got all my money out of Oz last September when we moved back and felt sore settling for .70 after seeing the dizzying heights of .85 and deciding not to send a lump back at .78. Looks like it returning to the pre-GFC "norm" of .60 ish was the reality that everyone in Oz said couldn't happen!


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,744 irishmover


    Thankfully sent $10k home at .82 back in the hayday.. Missed the shot to send more when it was still in the 70's. Don't plan to return to Ireland for good until 2018 so can sit knowing I've money at home for when I visit and that I don't need to transfer everything until at the minimum early 2018.

    Fingers crossed things improve in the coming years.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,028 ✭✭✭ lg123




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,028 ✭✭✭ lg123


    thinking of moving home in 12 months, whats the consensus on what I should do with my savings, send home now or hold off till next year?


  • Moderators, Regional Abroad Moderators Posts: 5,364 Mod ✭✭✭✭ aido79


    lg123 wrote: »
    thinking of moving home in 12 months, whats the consensus on what I should do with my savings, send home now or hold off till next year?

    It's very hard to know. If I could predict what way the markets go then there is no way in hell I would be going to work next week because I could make more money on the money markets. You would be losing around 3% in interest rates between a deposit account in Australia and Ireland so you need to take that into consideration.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,710 ✭✭✭ Tigerandahalf


    Also take into account that interest rates will probably drop soon in Oz. It is normally the first thing to happen when an economy starts to creak. So unless you have a long time frame you would want to be cautious about keeping your money there.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,028 ✭✭✭ lg123


    taking 3% off today's rate is about 0.615, which is a typical pre-GFC rate.
    considering their has been about a 10% adjustment since early may, the resource demand is over and the Yuan is only going in one direction, and my 3% interest isn't guaranteed to last, I think I should start looking for a term deposit at home.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,826 ✭✭✭✭ cnocbui


    Also take into account that interest rates will probably drop soon in Oz. It is normally the first thing to happen when an economy starts to creak. So unless you have a long time frame you would want to be cautious about keeping your money there.

    I doubt interest rates will drop, personally. The lowering interest rates to boost business investment idea looks very dubious these days given the complete failure of the principle since 2009. Australia doesn't really need business investment to boost economic activity. The problems are entirely global and external. There might be an argument to lower interest rates to devalue the A$ but that has well and truly been taken care of and the RBA might well be actually hoping it doesn't go any lower at this point.

    Then there is Australia's superannuation landscape. Many retirees depend on returns from investments for their income. Lowering interest rates any further would significantly affect this group. Already the stock market has seen a huge influx of capital seeking high dividend return equities. This has inflated the equity market significantly, though thankfully not as much as has happened in the US. If I was on the RBA board, I would not want to be lowering interest rates and inflating equity prices any more than has already happened because it could well be setting up a lot of retirees for financial Armageddon and permanent loss of independent income should there be another 2009 scale stock market crash and they panic.

    Australia needs there to be a range of investments yielding returns that make self-funded retirement incomes viable. Forcing an all eggs in one basket situation would be utterly stupid.

    There is already a bit of a problem with Australia's housing market being overvalued in global terms, particularly in Sydney where the median house price recently topped an insane $1 Million. It wouldn't be a stretch to assume that a lot of the recent heat in the housing market has been due to interest rates being lowered to 2%. Go lower and it will likely exacerbate the problem immensely, just as it looks like it might be stabilising a bit.
    lg123 wrote: »
    taking 3% off today's rate is about 0.615, which is a typical pre-GFC rate.
    considering their has been about a 10% adjustment since early may, the resource demand is over and the Yuan is only going in one direction, and my 3% interest isn't guaranteed to last, I think I should start looking for a term deposit at home.

    It's now back up to 0.64138. Things are way too volatile at the moment to be coming to long term conclusions I think. I have seen predictions the A$ is going to keep on going down till the end of the year but I have also seen predictions Iron Ore would go to $20 a Ton and Gold was headed for $750 or lower. Just after those predictions both turned around and went back up.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,710 ✭✭✭ Tigerandahalf


    Retirees should not be relying on the stock market for their retirement. If that pension gamble fails it is tough luck.
    I remember someone put up a graph on this forum about 6 months back detailing when most of the energy/resource projects would be finishing up and I think the dates were from 2015 - 2017. Once those projects finish unemployment will become much more of an issue. The gov then will have few choices.
    I remember Brian Cowen belating Ireland's bad luck in facing the triple whammy of property crash, Lehmans going bust and the sudden halt to bank liquidity worldwide. Australia is facing similar problems and it is something like the Chinese stock crash that will set it off. The dollar may stabilise and increase a little in the near future but long term it could fall much further. The big problem for Australians is that they will have huge private debt owing to housing.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭ catbear


    I remember someone put up a graph on this forum about 6 months back detailing when most of the energy/resource projects would be finishing up and I think the dates were from 2015 - 2017.
    There you go.
    Capture8.png

    No one invested in mining can't say they didn't see it coming!

    Sent every cent of my savings to € when the aus$ was strong, still have to reclaim my super; ah well!
    Great for anyone moving to Australia though!


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,826 ✭✭✭✭ cnocbui


    While the decline in capital expenditure will mean a reduction in construction and commissioning jobs, I don't think one should lose sight of the whole purpose of that expenditure. These projects are now coming to fruition and will be generating significant revenues. You want to look at something really scary, look at Ireland's debt clock.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,710 ✭✭✭ Tigerandahalf


    Ireland's debt is bad no doubt but Australia could follow very quickly if they don't take corrective action.
    As for the dollar's value it probably needs to weaken considerably in order to attract tourists to Oz again, even to keep Aussies holidaying at home. The problem then though is that there would be a flight of money putting the banks under serious pressure. I saw an article the other day that said the big 4 Aussie banks have assets (loans) worth 200% of GDP whereas the big 4 in America before Lehmans bust were only 50% of American GDP. So these banks could fold. Deposits could be snatched as the state may not be able to step in.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭ catbear


    Hard commodities have always been a primary revenue stream for Australia, the real question is how would Australia have faired after 08 if China hadn't gone a massive infrastructure spree?

    It used to be that when the US sneezed the world caught a cold, now if China sneezes Australia will have a stroke.
    australia4.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭ res ipsa


    Ozzie has tipped a critical technical support of 70 against the greenback. Good chance we will see new lows until the Fed raises rates.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭ catbear


    Aus$ back around €.64. Might get more upside next week.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,028 ✭✭✭ lg123


    catbear wrote: »
    Aus$ back around €.64. Might get more upside next week.

    its on quite a push, isn't it. what's driving it?

    have some cash sitting idle in CF. thinking of buying some USD and EUR next week but not sure what split. any thoughts?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 13,018 jank


    The Fed was expected to raise interest rates but this has been postponed for a number of months at least. Global stocks have also risen on the news of the postponement. Dead cat bounce in the latest rise.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,028 ✭✭✭ lg123


    but is there much left in the cat?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 333 ✭✭ gobsh!te


    jank wrote: »
    The Fed was expected to raise interest rates but this has been postponed for a number of months at least. Global stocks have also risen on the news of the postponement. Dead cat bounce in the latest rise.

    The Fed will not be raising rates again....ever:eek:


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