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Tesla/Lithium stocks discussion

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13567…55

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    #62
    Sabre Man
    Registered Users Posts: 2,029 ✭✭✭Sabre Man


    Nody wrote: »
    no matter how much they ramp up will not change the basic fact they fail to make money because their model is not working

    Would you mind elaborating this point?


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    #63
    Nody
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,260 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Sabre Man wrote: »
    Would you mind elaborating this point?
    Without going over old ground this table is based on their own information:

    GAAP loss cars sold GAAP loss per car
    1Q 2016 $282,267,000 14810 $19,059
    4Q 2015 $320,397,000 17478 $18,331
    3Q 2015 $229,858,000 11603 $19,810
    2Q 2015 $184,227,000 11532 $15,975
    1Q 2015 $154,181,000 10045 $15,349
    4Q 2014 $107,629,000 9834 $10,945

    They sell more cars and they keep on making higher losses and model 3 would need the margin of a Porsche just to break even over a decade on the investments alone.

    There's also a great article here on Seeking Alpha (require free membership to read) comparing how Jaguar was doing at similar volumes to Tesla. The author is short on Tesla (i.e. open bias) but the numbers are still the same either way (Jaguar made a profit at the same volumes Tesla is losing over 15k USD per car) at their highest ever margin (as they are currently the only long distance electrical car producer and as GM, Toyota etc. start producing the margin will drop rapidly).

    In short Tesla is a pet project to get others to produce electrical cars and it's working great for that; as a shareholder however you're funding Musks vision without the profit from it. Note I'm not a shareholder nor shorting the stock.


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    #64
    Sabre Man
    Registered Users Posts: 2,029 ✭✭✭Sabre Man


    That's misleading according to this Motley Fool article:

    http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/03/27/how-tesla-motors-could-be-profitable-if-it-wanted.aspx


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    #65
    Francie Barrett
    Registered Users Posts: 16,379 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    Sabre Man wrote: »
    You're looking at it the wrong way. It doesn't say anything about loss per car. Tesla isn't losing money on cars sold, but is simply spending money building the company for future growth.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-you-value-tesla-per-car-sold-youre-an-idiot-2016-05-05?siteid=yhoof2

    I don't own any TSLA shares at the moment.
    Francie Barrett wrote: »
    Sorry, you are wrong on this. Even before capex for the next round of growth is considered, Tesla lost money in 2015. Check the cash flow statement for 2015 if you don't believe me.

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000156459016013195/tsla-10k_20151231.htm
    Sabre Man wrote: »
    That's misleading according to this Motley Fool article:

    http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/03/27/how-tesla-motors-could-be-profitable-if-it-wanted.aspx
    Sabre Man - we had this exact same discussion last month! The financials clearly show that Tesla is losing money even before they consider capex for the next generation of Model 3's.


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    #66
    Nody
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,260 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Sabre Man wrote: »
    That's misleading according to this Motley Fool article:

    http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/03/27/how-tesla-motors-could-be-profitable-if-it-wanted.aspx
    The article compares them to GM and Ford to conclude they could be profitable as a supercar maker... How about if they would compare them to an actual company producing similar volumes such as oh Ferrari or Jaguar? Or account for their margin shrinking for every year that goes by? But even taking his theoretical profit of $250MM (it would be far less) it would still put a P/E on the company at 109 compared to Ferrari at 21 (and that's comparing a unprofitable company with a very profitable one)...

    Also by the end of this year will have burned through ~3 billion dollars and in Q1 2017 will be going to the market to ask for more money again (at the latest) to be able to actually buy materials etc. to finish their factory to make the model 3 (assuming by a miracle they manage to get ready for it). That's assuming they don't buy SolarCity as that would add easily another billion+ required in capital requirements this year alone (fun fact SolarCity sold part of it's portfolio at $3 per Watt while production cost is $3.18 per Watt as of Q1).

    In short the stock has no connection to reality and is a a great tool for Musk to lure in investors with dreams of future profits which will never materialize.


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    #67
    _Tombstone_
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,006 ✭✭✭_Tombstone_


    Looks like third car has crashed with auto-pilot engaged (these people are seriously dopey relying on that, its beta (baby) software and I'd question what it's doing in the car at all looking at some of the near miss vids online)

    Auto-pilot!!!!! They wish. In 15 years maybe!

    http://m.slashdot.org/story/313573

    Look at this crash from someone just using the "summon" feature (they wish!) It drove straight into a trailer. If it can't even manage that at 3mph whats it doing out on motorway.

    http://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/car-technology/news/a29133/tesla-self-driving-crash-summon-autonomous/



    And possibly worst of all, a possible cover up by offering to repair just out of warranty cars - with pretty shocking suspension failures - if the owner says nothing more about it.

    http://dailykanban.com/2016/06/tesla-suspension-breakage-not-crime-coverup/

    http://www.autonews.com/article/20160609/OEM11/160609815/nhtsa-warns-tesla-over-non-disclosure-pacts?X-IgnoreUserAgent=1&X-IgnoreUserAgent=1


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    #68
    yeyeye
    Registered Users Posts: 27 ✭yeyeye


    I saw today on a CNBC ad that one of self-driving Model S's crashed and the owner died well he was hit by a trailer. They did say in the ad that they're would be over 10 million self-driving cars by 2020 which is complete BS. I like Elon personally, but I think he and his team are looking too far into the future and need to focus on the problems they have now such as their high costs,bringing a cheaper model to the market and mass production. I would never buy a share of Tesla I think it is way too over valued and the risk is too high


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    #69
    _Tombstone_
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,006 ✭✭✭_Tombstone_


    lithium batteries - keep blowing up.

    Someones gonna have to come up with an alternative soon.


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    #70
    Thargor
    Registered Users Posts: 17,869 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    No they dont, they're an incredibly safe and stable technology. There are billions upon billions of them in use in the world and one causing a fire is enough to make headlines.


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    #71
    _Tombstone_
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,006 ✭✭✭_Tombstone_


    Thargor wrote: »
    No they dont, they're an incredibly safe and stable technology. There are billions upon billions of them in use in the world and one causing a fire is enough to make headlines.

    Genie, its more than one, tesla's catching fires, airlines refusing to carry them, mass hoverboard recalls, multiple big brand phone maker recalls and on it goes.

    Dangerous tech.


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    #72
    Thargor
    Registered Users Posts: 17,869 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    Are you trolling or just completely ignorant? I just came home after passing through several airports carrying 5 lithium ion batteries including a big power bank, nobody cares. Teslas are the safest cars ever built. There are more phones than people in the world, how often do any need to be recalled?


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    #73
    lucky john
    Registered Users Posts: 838 ✭✭✭lucky john


    So...a profit for Q3. Smashing all expectations. Shorts are in for a bit of a scorching.


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    #74
    Nody
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,260 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    lucky john wrote: »
    So...a profit for Q3. Smashing all expectations. Shorts are in for a bit of a scorching.
    Eh they were expected to make a profit; however the only reason they made a profit (ZEV credit sales) is basically a once off exercise that gave them 138.5 million USD vs. their profit of 22 million for comparison. Q4 there are no ZEV credits to sell anymore so where's the profit going to come from?

    Secondly the free cash flow improvement; Tesla stated beginning of the year they would invest over 2.3 billion USD into the factory and new super charge locations in 2016 (it was one of the major drivers behind last year's cash injection after all) which has been cut drastically (less than half the actual super charger locations implemented etc.). Secondly they achieved a further cash flow improvement by not paying bills; yes you read that right they build up an additional 628 million USD in short term liabilities in Q3 (that's an accounting way of saying we have bills to pay that we've not paid yet). It's easy to claim improved cash flow if you don't pay your bills; if the bills had been paid they would still be in negative cash flow and of course those bills are not going away; look at the upcoming Q4 statement on cash flow to see the impact.

    And finally and probably the most damning part is the thing not said; model 3 reservations. Remember how Musk was happy to continually tweet out the new numbers of reservations; yea; that silence on it is interesting...


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    #75
    Francie Barrett
    Registered Users Posts: 16,379 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    Nody wrote: »
    Eh they were expected to make a profit; however the only reason they made a profit (ZEV credit sales) is basically a once off exercise that gave them 138.5 million USD vs. their profit of 22 million for comparison. Q4 there are no ZEV credits to sell anymore so where's the profit going to come from?

    Secondly the free cash flow improvement; Tesla stated beginning of the year they would invest over 2.3 billion USD into the factory and new super charge locations in 2016 (it was one of the major drivers behind last year's cash injection after all) which has been cut drastically (less than half the actual super charger locations implemented etc.). Secondly they achieved a further cash flow improvement by not paying bills; yes you read that right they build up an additional 628 million USD in short term liabilities in Q3 (that's an accounting way of saying we have bills to pay that we've not paid yet). It's easy to claim improved cash flow if you don't pay your bills; if the bills had been paid they would still be in negative cash flow and of course those bills are not going away; look at the upcoming Q4 statement on cash flow to see the impact.

    And finally and probably the most damning part is the thing not said; model 3 reservations. Remember how Musk was happy to continually tweet out the new numbers of reservations; yea; that silence on it is interesting...
    It must have been one of the worst engineered earnings beats I've ever seen. Last year they guided $2.25bn in capex spending for the new gigafactory and the model 3 roll-out. The actual spending has been $760mn. It's clear that the capex has been delayed to temporarily juice the numbers and ensure that Musk can raise more money while the stock price is high. If you ask me, Tesla should be investigated by the SEC for such egregious accounting practices.


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    #76
    lucky john
    Registered Users Posts: 838 ✭✭✭lucky john


    "Eh they were expected to make a profit;"
    Nody wrote: »
    So never; Tesla is not going to make money in the future, they are not making money now and no matter how much they ramp up will not change the basic fact they fail to make money because their model is not working. It's great way to drive a vision and get other's to invest money but making a profit? Nope, sorry not happening and volume is not the driver here (plenty of car manufacturers are green at the volumes Tesla been producing).

    Not by you obviously;)


    They have stopped tweeting reservations of Modle 3 because they have been so hugely successful that orders today will not be delivered until late 2018. Going by the accounts it is reckoned that pre orders are close to 500,000. A staggering amount considering a 2 year wait for a product not even in production yet.


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    #77
    Nody
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,260 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    lucky john wrote: »
    "Eh they were expected to make a profit;"



    Not by you obviously;)
    No, and I still stand by that but the listed expectation by the analysts was a profit for this quarter (driven by accounting tricks). Doing accounting tricks to show a profit does not make a profitable company; all they shown is they can do an accounting trick to show a quarter profit before the next fund raising period. If they had done proper accounting of assigning those credits in each quarter when they sold the respective car they would have made a significant loss this quarter as well. The fact is they are selling cars at a loss; nothing has changed that nor the fact they have great liabilities that they refuse to disclose (for example the fact that the billion investment by Panasonic in the factory is actually 100% covered by Tesla and a Tesla liability).
    They have stopped tweeting reservations of Modle 3 because they have been so hugely successful that orders today will not be delivered until late 2018. Going by the accounts it is reckoned that pre orders are close to 500,000. A staggering amount considering a 2 year wait for a product not even in production yet.
    Really, 500k? So you're over 100k reserved beyond the number actually stated by Tesla themselves back in May this year and you think Musk would not mention this? The man who've shown to consistently exaggerate every claim to date?


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    #78
    lucky john
    Registered Users Posts: 838 ✭✭✭lucky john


    Nody wrote: »
    Really, 500k? So you're over 100k reserved beyond the number actually stated by Tesla themselves back in May this year and you think Musk would not mention this? The man who've shown to consistently exaggerate every claim to date?

    You seem to be a numbers man so start with $690mil cash in deposits on account and work from there. S and X have a $25,000 deposit. So the less you allow against M3 deposits the better the higher priced cars sales pipeline looks. I'm happy either way.

    https://electrek.co/2016/08/05/tesla-model-3-reservations-400000-cash-flow-customer-deposits/

    Here's a bit from 3 months ago on deposits. Cash from deposits is even higher since then so while Musk might not be shouting about them orders continue to tic up.


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    #79
    zpehtsfd
    Registered Users Posts: 627 ✭✭✭zpehtsfd


    Francie Barrett wrote: »
    It's clear that the capex has been delayed to temporarily juice the numbers and ensure that Musk can raise more money while the stock price is high.

    Right now it's all about the Solar City deal. Musk knows that without a positive vote from Tesla shareholders the house of cards will come tumbling down. He has put his money and more importantly his integrity on the line with this deal. Fascinated to see how the vote turns out. GL


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    #80
    yoppy
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 62 ✭✭yoppy


    Gigafactory up and running

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-04/tesla-flips-the-switch-on-the-gigafactory


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    #81
    lucky john
    Registered Users Posts: 838 ✭✭✭lucky john


    On a real roll these days. Could easily break $260 this week. Everything Musk touches turned to gold all of a sudden. Trump winning could have been a disaster for him but instead he has turned it in to a big win. The risk though is that you would have to fear how the relationship will be seen by Tesla fans. Their demographic would make them 100% anti everything Trump stand for.

    For investors though its all good so far. There has to be a good chance $280 will be back on the cards soon.


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    #82
    zpehtsfd
    Registered Users Posts: 627 ✭✭✭zpehtsfd


    Just hit $280.

    The overall market is overheated but i ain't standing in front of this train yet. Scary time to be short anything.


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    #83
    arkrow
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 158 ✭✭arkrow


    Elon Musk Is Really Boring

    A tunnel boring company, that is.

    Whose in?

    http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/infrastructure/a25257/elon-musk-boring-company/


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    #84
    TimeToShine
    Registered Users Posts: 4,881 ✭✭✭TimeToShine


    Sold all of it at $270. Huge return on investment but I acknowledge that there was a large element of fluke. Won't be going near Tesla for the foreseeable future after that!


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    #85
    Sabre Man
    Registered Users Posts: 2,029 ✭✭✭Sabre Man


    Tesla stock is 'fairly valued' right now, but near-term challenges remain, says Bernstein analyst
    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/09/tesla-stock-is-fairly-valued-right-now-but-near-term-challenges-remain-says-bernstein-analyst.html


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    #86
    lucky john
    Registered Users Posts: 838 ✭✭✭lucky john


    Musk has made history tonight with SpaceX and shown again that nothing is impossible if the right minds are put to it.
    Tesla doubters beware.


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    #87
    el diablo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,745 ✭✭✭el diablo


    lucky john wrote: »
    Musk has made history tonight with SpaceX and shown again that nothing is impossible if the right minds are put to it.
    Tesla doubters beware.

    It sure does help when you receive unlimited government funding and loans.

    We're all in this psy-op together.🤨



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    #88
    Sabre Man
    Registered Users Posts: 2,029 ✭✭✭Sabre Man


    Tesla delivered a record number of cars in Q1
    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/02/tesla-delivers-a-record-25000-vehicles-in-the-first-quarter.html


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    #89
    Nody
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,260 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Sabre Man wrote: »
    Tesla delivered a record number of cars in Q1
    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/02/tesla-delivers-a-record-25000-vehicles-in-the-first-quarter.html
    But had the capacity to deliver over 29.000 cars (2.400 cars a week in Q4) and a lot of the push are temporary effect from dropping the free lifetime charging at stations after January and UK dropped the Plug-In Car grant; all which helped push sales in Q1 but nothing to do with sustaining the sales. But of course there's another way to look at it which are the financials for Q1...

    Operating Margin -9.86
    Pretax Margin -10.66
    Net Margin -9.64
    Return on Assets -4.39
    Return on Equity -23.11
    Return on Total Capital -7.78
    Return on Invested Capital -8.70
    Income Per Employee -37,955.00

    Sounds financially sound to me!


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    #90
    Thargor
    Registered Users Posts: 17,869 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    All time highs, up about 40% since I sold out...


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    #91
    Francie Barrett
    Registered Users Posts: 16,379 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    He must be pretty vindictive to troll the shorters.
    Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk 5h5 hours ago
    Stormy weather in Shortville ...


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