DGW and Blank gw planning

Iused2likebusts · 07-01-2017 10:52pm #1

Probably a bit early for this but its something that helps me with my planning and its a bit of an obsession of mine so here goes.
Key dates
Carling cup final gw 26
Fa cup Qf GW 28
Fa cup SF GW 34
These games all clash with league fixtures so PL games get cancelled which gives us teams with Blanks and then future DGWs

Going by the usual rule of Pl games being refixed for midweeks when their is no CL. The only Gws available are the the midweek after Gw 26, 34,37. This rule has been very occasionally broken but its frowned upon.

Gw26 Due to the carling cup two out of these four games will be cancelled
Hull Burnley
City Utd
Leicester Liverpool
Southampton Arsenal
Their is a chance these games could get refixed for the midweek of gw 26 however that is also scheduled for fa cup 5th rd replays. If they get refixed for the midweek their is no dgws and blanks arising out of the carling cup.

Gw 28 Fa cup QF After todays results 2 games will now definetly go ahead.
Bournemouth west ham
everton wba

A fair few games will end up getting cancelled and this will be a gw where we struggle to field eleven. These cancelled games will most likely be refixed for the midweek of gw 34 and gw 37.

GW 34 Fa cup SF After todays results 2 games will definetly go ahead.
Swansea Stoke
West ham everton
Something the majority wont realise which is a big change from last year. The midweek after this gw is free so we will have less blanks and less dgw teams. Games can just be switched from the sat till the wed or teams will have a blank on the sat as they are in fa cup sf and will then have the game they were supposed to have in gw 28 moved in here. Giving them no blank and no double.

Gw 37 Will be a dgw any cancelled games not refixed will go in here more than likely the teams that have made the Fa cup sf as they will play their refixed game cancelled due to fa cup qf in gw 34.

In summary I dont think there is going to be the dgw bonanza we have had in previous years. Their will be less blanks and in turn less dgws. A 15 player dgw BB is highly unlikely to be possible and if your going down that route your looking at 6 teams max or playing it in dgw37 when massive rotation usually kicks in.

Iused2likebusts · 07-01-2017 11:26pm

What happened last year
GW 27 newcastle city
liverpool everton cancelled for carling cup

Gw 30 utd palace
sunderland everton
west ham watford
Arsenal wba
liverpool chelsea cancelled for fa cup qf

GW 33 Palace everton DGW

GW 34 DGW
newcastle city
west ham watford
utd palace
liverpool everton

Gw 35 Palace everton
norwich watford
west ham man utd cancelled for fa cup sf

GW 37 DGW
West ham man utd
Norwich watford
liverpool chelsea
sunderland everton

9 dgw matches 18 teams spread out over 3 gws. Their was an added complication last year as everton had a game cancelled last year due to carling cup and made the fa SF so needed another 2 games refixed. Thats why we had a dgw 33 that clashed with a midweek CL tie as there was nowhere else for that fixture could go.

If we look at this years circumstance GW 34 is fa cup SF and the midweek where games will get refixed to so in effect gw 34 and 35 combined from last year. All thing being equal what would have happened.

Gw 33 DGW everton palace
GW 34 DGW for newcastle, man city and everton, a blank for norwich and a sgw for 16 teams.
GW 37 DGW exactly the same as what happened. So a dgw for 8 teams. Not an ideal week for BB due to rotation.

13 teams would have dgws spread over 3 gws and the one main skinny week will be fa cup qf weekend.
Its complicated stuff so hopefully I havent made a mistake

ScummyMan · 08-01-2017 12:20am

Great work Busts. It's a pity as DGW planning was one of my favourite elements of FF. I'll probably use my bench boost on a single GW now, TC though will definitely be kept for a double baring something crazy happening.

FHFC · 08-01-2017 12:31am

Superb analysis as ever.

I was looking at this a bit during the week and the fact it was looking like the main DGW would be 37 is a concern. Rotation plus its very very late to hold the wildcard. You'll only get 2 weeks benefit.

It may be helpful to use it late to get rid of and 'on the beach' teams assets, but still. Not great.

Another potential way to gain a bit from a late WC is to play it after GW28 allowing you to stock up on players with no blanks and field a very strong side that week. Then fix it for GW29 with an eye on the DGWs which will be clearer by then.

Finally, once you (as much as possible) avoid teams with nothing to play for in the league, or cup distractions like Liverpool last year, rotation should be less of an issue this year. Last year most of the teams still fighting for something in the league had no DGW while team with cup priorities or less interest in the league did. So most of the DGW options were rotation prone, while Mahrez, Vardy, Fuchs, Toby, Alli and Kane had no DGW. That was quite an odd scenario.

the whole year inn · 08-01-2017 12:36am

Great post!

FHFC · 08-01-2017 12:49am

Finally, the Ben Crellin awesome spreadsheet is again being updated as games happen.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AXOuLIzI4un4adZxpsTCN7amF8Go81NHAPZcbi51ZbI/edit?usp=sharing

In particular this is a great page with odds of blanks for GW28 based on hte odds of teams progressing. This will firm up a whole lot when the rest of R3 is played and the R4 draw made.

At present only projecting 4 blanks but the info is very sketchy as yet.

ElTel · 08-01-2017 1:19am

Never too early and thanks for getting it going Busts.
And the spreadsheet is here!!! Thanks FHFC

raiders11 · 08-01-2017 1:24am

After seeing this tonight, am delighted I joined boards in this last few months for help/info.. Has being massive help n the info on this thread hopefully will help more, carefully plan my wildcard..

08-01-2017 8:17am

Brilliant work lads.

If only I could understand the half of it.

Iused2likebusts · 08-01-2017 9:14am

FHFC wrote: »

Superb analysis as ever.

I was looking at this a bit during the week and the fact it was looking like the main DGW would be 37 is a concern. Rotation plus its very very late to hold the wildcard. You'll only get 2 weeks benefit.

It may be helpful to use it late to get rid of and 'on the beach' teams assets, but still. Not great.

Another potential way to gain a bit from a late WC is to play it after GW28 allowing you to stock up on players with no blanks and field a very strong side that week. Then fix it for GW29 with an eye on the DGWs which will be clearer by then.

Finally, once you (as much as possible) avoid teams with nothing to play for in the league, or cup distractions like Liverpool last year, rotation should be less of an issue this year. Last year most of the teams still fighting for something in the league had no DGW while team with cup priorities or less interest in the league did. So most of the DGW options were rotation prone, while Mahrez, Vardy, Fuchs, Toby, Alli and Kane had no DGW. That was quite an odd scenario.

Ye I think for those holding the wildcard the stock up for gw 28 and then play it after is a good idea. For those that have used wildcard we should have it easier this year. The gap between the skinny week gw 28 and the dgw 34 is 6 gws instead of 4 gws last year so more free transfers.Also dgw 34 shouldn't have too many teams with a dgw. No added complication of a skinny week just after a dgw and more than likely the main dgw being in gw37 which gives us even more transfers. TC is the chip I'll be focusing on for the dgws.

alchemist33 · 08-01-2017 10:52am

With so much to play for in the top 6, a DGW37 should give us plenty of rotation-free TC options .

FHFC · 08-01-2017 12:03pm

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

TC is the chip I'll be focusing on for the dgws.

Undoubtedly TC is the most important one to get right for the DGWs. And even then like every captain call theres a huge element of luck involved. But you have to give yourself the best statistical chance.

The layout of the potential dgw fixtures will be huge. I was thinking about it this morning and assuming 37 is the main DGW and 34 is a DGW 'lite'.....then if there is no standout TC option in 34 it mitigates against using the BB in the 'big' DGW. If the best TC option appears to be in 37 then it should be priority imo.

In that case, for late wildcarders using the WC to maximize DWGers for 34 could work well. If only maybe 4 teams to choose from then 7 or 8 DGW players (incl your bench 4) would be way more than most. Then you'd have 4 fts to set up for 37 and TC.

In other words that option would be:

* WC Gw33 getting a GK and 2 cheapish defs with decent DGW34 fixtures and optimising the rest of the team while keeping the main SGW big hitters. * BB GW34 and bank transfer. * Set up for 5 or 6 at least DGWers for 37 and TC.

FHFC · 08-01-2017 12:08pm

alchemist33 wrote: »

With so much to play for in the top 6, a DGW37 should give us plenty of rotation-free TC options .

This a good point too.

Probably the ideal scenario for a late WC is a small DGW34 with a standout TC option and a huge DGW37 which (unlike last year) involves most of the top 6 still competing for the title or CL spots and out of the Cup/Europe.

In this scenario, with only 1 week to manage after the DGW the largely mythical 15 DGW player team could actually work.

Ziegler1988 · 08-01-2017 9:57pm

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Going by the usual rule of Pl games being refixed for midweeks when their is no CL. The only Gws available are the the midweek after Gw 26, 34,37. This rule has been very occasionally broken but its frowned upon.

The EPFL said they've stopped this agreement: http://www.espnfc.us/uefa-champions-league/story/2978094/epfl-ends-agreement-with-uefa-on-champions-league-dates

Who knows what Sky will want to do for a rearranged TV selection, whether to go up against BT's Champions League coverage or have it be the only option like previous seasons.

Iused2likebusts · 08-01-2017 11:50pm

Ziegler1988 wrote: »

The EPFL said they've stopped this agreement: http://www.espnfc.us/uefa-champions-league/story/2978094/epfl-ends-agreement-with-uefa-on-champions-league-dates

Who knows what Sky will want to do for a rearranged TV selection, whether to go up against BT's Champions League coverage or have it be the only option like previous seasons.

It still most likely the games will be fixed for when there is no European fixtures IMO. Unless we have a repeat of what happened with Everton last year with 3 games to be refixed.

Iused2likebusts · 09-01-2017 8:22pm

Maximum of 11 pl teams will be through to the last 16 after the draw. Very favourable draws for most of the teams.

ArmaniJeanss · 09-01-2017 8:56pm

Ziegler1988 wrote: »

The EPFL said they've stopped this agreement: http://www.espnfc.us/uefa-champions-league/story/2978094/epfl-ends-agreement-with-uefa-on-champions-league-dates

Who knows what Sky will want to do for a rearranged TV selection, whether to go up against BT's Champions League coverage or have it be the only option like previous seasons.

I don't think the Premier League is a member of the EPLF.

FHFC · 09-01-2017 9:57pm

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Maximum of 11 pl teams will be through to the last 16 after the draw. Very favourable draws for most of the teams.

Looks like at least 5 and still a good chance of 7 or 8 blank fixtures GW26!! :eek:

Ziegler1988 · 09-01-2017 10:19pm

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

I don't think the Premier League is a member of the EPLF.

They are: http://www.epfl-europeanleagues.com/about_us.htm

I don't think Sky is going to put a televised match up against a Champions League semifinal to make DGW35 or 36 readily; it's an option now for the other matches that have to be rearranged.

Iused2likebusts · 09-01-2017 10:27pm

FHFC wrote: »

Looks like at least 5 and still a good chance of 7 or 8 blank fixtures GW26!! :eek:

Depends on the 5th round draw. Tonights draw was great for dgws. No new blanks because of it. Most teams got very favourable draws.

FHFC · 09-01-2017 10:31pm

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Depends on the 5th round draw. Tonights draw was great for dgws. No new blanks because of it. Most teams got very favourable draws.

Ah here. I was a round ahead of myself there and getting carried away!

And meant to say GW28.

Think I need an early night!

KevIRL · 10-01-2017 9:15am

Could the incoming bad weather affect games this weekend?

FHFC · 10-01-2017 9:27am

KevIRL wrote: »

Could the incoming bad weather affect games this weekend?

That would be fun!

Green&Red · 10-01-2017 10:22am

This is making my head hurt

Cartman78 · 10-01-2017 10:58am

Got a few flashbacks there from last weeks DGW planning....spent endless hours meticulously drafting, re-editing and finalising the perfect squad.........

.....and then used my precious TC Chip on Andy fekken Carroll :eek:

dsmythy · 10-01-2017 12:40pm

KevIRL wrote: »

Could the incoming bad weather affect games this weekend?

Should be no more than a couple of orange balls on show if even that.

Mr.Prodston · 10-01-2017 2:50pm

What's to plan?

Sunderland DGW 37 vs Swansea + Another.

Sorted.

dr.kenneth noisewater · 10-01-2017 4:21pm

Mr.Prodston wrote: »

What's to plan?

Sunderland DGW 37 vs Swansea + Another.

Sorted.

PVA TC?

Green&Red · 10-01-2017 4:35pm

dr.kenneth noisewater wrote: »

PVA TC?

Seb Larsson will have played himself into contention by that stage #bandwagon

km79 · 10-01-2017 11:35pm

Carling cup final gw26
United due to play city that weekend in league

Ziegler1988 · 11-01-2017 12:07am

km79 wrote: »

Carling cup final gw26
United due to play city that weekend in league

Quite likely that Ibra and Aguero could both have blanks GW26 and 28

spock. · 11-01-2017 12:13am

Ziegler1988 wrote:

Quite likely that Ibra and Aguero could both have blanks GW26 and 28

Using transfers to switch from Ibra to Lukaku works well.

Gw 25: Ibra - WAT (Luk - mid)
Gw 26: Luk - SUN (Ibra - blank)
Gw27: Ibra- BOU (Luk - tot)
Gw28: Luk - WBA (Ibra - blank)

extra gravy · 11-01-2017 1:41am

spock. wrote: »

Using transfers to switch from Ibra to Lukaku works well.

Gw 25: Ibra - WAT (Luk - mid)
Gw 26: Luk - SUN (Ibra - blank)
Gw27: Ibra- BOU (Luk - tot)
Gw28: Luk - WBA (Ibra - blank)

That's a lot of transfers to use on just two players though when you might not be able to field 11 either of those weeks.

FHFC · 11-01-2017 8:30pm

Interesting point from the spreadsheet guy...@bencrellin

Everton & West Ham won't have any Blanks or DGWs this season (unless a fixture of theirs is called off due to snow or some other reason).

They and their opponents in Gameweeks 26, 28 & 34 are all out of both domestic cups.

km79 · 11-01-2017 9:17pm

Yoshida starts again tonight
Played last few league games
And fonte won't be picked again apparently

Mr.Prodston · 11-01-2017 9:37pm

FHFC wrote: »

Interesting point from the spreadsheet guy...@bencrellin

Everton & West Ham won't have any Blanks or DGWs this season (unless a fixture of theirs is called off due to snow or some other reason).

They and their opponents in Gameweeks 26, 28 & 34 are all out of both domestic cups.

At least ye won't be tempted to TC Lukaku or Andy Carroll, the crazy punts that they were last season.....:D

FHFC · 12-01-2017 12:48am

km79 wrote: »

Yoshida starts again tonight
Played last few league games
And fonte won't be picked again apparently

Southampton close to signing Sahko from Liverpool. They'll sign a new CB of some description for sure.

Wildcard or not Yoshida would be a shortsighted move IMO.

**cough** Cedric **cough cough**

the incredible pudding · 12-01-2017 1:01am

FHFC wrote: »

**cough** Cedric **cough cough**

Cedric is the epitome of disappointment

km79 · 12-01-2017 9:19am

the incredible pudding wrote: »

Cedric is the epitome of disappointment

He burst through on goal tonight
2 choices
Shoot across the keeper or try and square it to the striker in the 6 yard box
He chose option 3
Shoot wildly wide on the near side
It was then I realised why he has NO attacking points this season
All .fart no **** I believe is the expression

FHFC · 12-01-2017 9:30am

km79 wrote: »

He burst through on goal tonight
2 choices
Shoot across the keeper or try and square it to the striker in the 6 yard box
He chose option 3
Shoot wildly wide on the near side
It was then I realised why he has NO attacking points this season
All .fart no **** I believe is the expression

Oh how orgasmic it'll be when he delivers a goal and a CS to those who kept faith....

FHFC · 19-01-2017 12:36am

2 more PL sides safely through in the cup. Edging toward a major blank in 28. Up to 7 blanks possible.

The google spreadsheet is updated and according to their odds "If the bookies' favourites (the Top 6 plus Leicester & Boro) all reach the FA Cup Quarter Finals, we'll get 7 Blanks in Gameweek 28."

extra gravy · 19-01-2017 11:27am

Hopefully Hull get knocked out. Swansea at home that week so Robertson/Snodgrass/Hernandez could be good one week punts.

Father Hernandez · 19-01-2017 11:30am

extra gravy wrote: »

Hopefully Hull get knocked out. Swansea at home that week so Robertson/Snodgrass/Hernandez could be good one week punts.

If I stay in form and the gaffer gets us playing well, I think I could be more than just a good one week punt! I'm cheap too (FPL cheap)

Trimm Trabb · 19-01-2017 12:34pm

FHFC wrote: »

2 more PL sides safely through in the cup. Edging toward a major blank in 28. Up to 7 blanks possible.

The google spreadsheet is updated and according to their odds "If the bookies' favourites (the Top 6 plus Leicester & Boro) all reach the FA Cup Quarter Finals, we'll get 7 Blanks in Gameweek 28."

Yeah in my opinion chances are there will be 7 blanks unless there are some big shocks.

So the games on that weekend will be:

Everton v WBA
Bou v West Ham

and probably one of:
Hull v Swansea or
Man City v Stoke

Other than that you've got easy looking home draws for Chelsea, Spurs, Liverpool, United and Boro against lower league opposition and you would expect at least one of Arsenal/Leicester to progress with their trickier ties.

Although is the gameweek have been saying that there is a space for fixtures in the following midweek meaning the games will stay in gw28?

Iused2likebusts · 19-01-2017 12:37pm

Trimm Trabb wrote: »

Yeah in my opinion chances are there will be 7 blanks unless there are some big shocks.

So the games on that weekend will be:

Everton v WBA
Bou v West Ham

and probably one of:
Hull v Swansea or
Man City v Stoke

Other than that you've got easy looking home draws for Chelsea, Spurs, Liverpool, United and Boro against lower league opposition and you would expect at least one of Arsenal/Leicester to progress with their trickier ties.

Although is the gameweek have been saying that there is a space for fixtures in the following midweek meaning the games will stay in gw28?

There is another fa cup round the last 16 before the blank. There are european games the midweek after gw 28.

callaway92 · 19-01-2017 1:21pm

Father Hernandez wrote: »

If I stay in form and the gaffer gets us playing well, I think I could be more than just a good one week punt! I'm cheap too (FPL cheap)

patmac · 19-01-2017 9:13pm

callaway92 wrote: »

A bit harsh and disturbing.

Shanotheslayer · 20-01-2017 9:42am

patmac wrote: »

callaway92 wrote: »

A bit harsh and disturbing.

Could be worse, could be beating off a dead horse.

dsmythy · 20-01-2017 9:51pm

How much attention should we be paying to the GW26 blanks? I've 2 United players and will have 2 Arsenal if I get Giroud. Should their games be blanking that week I'll be looking at a large hole in the team. It's even hard to cut them down as we approach the gameweek because they have decent fixtures. Should we consider not getting new United and Arsenal players and the teams they are playing?

Iused2likebusts · 21-01-2017 12:15am

I think you need a squad of 15 that all play and it helps if you have a strong front 8 in and around the blanks.

FHFC · 21-01-2017 12:28am

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

I think you need a squad of 15 that all play and it helps if you have a strong front 8 in and around the blanks.

Yeah. Even I'm moving to a strong front 8 most likely.

DGW and Blank gw planning

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