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DGW and Blank gw planning

  • 07-01-2017 9:52pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 17,022 ✭✭✭✭ Iused2likebusts


    Probably a bit early for this but its something that helps me with my planning and its a bit of an obsession of mine so here goes.
    Key dates
    Carling cup final gw 26
    Fa cup Qf GW 28
    Fa cup SF GW 34
    These games all clash with league fixtures so PL games get cancelled which gives us teams with Blanks and then future DGWs

    Going by the usual rule of Pl games being refixed for midweeks when their is no CL. The only Gws available are the the midweek after Gw 26, 34,37. This rule has been very occasionally broken but its frowned upon.

    Gw26 Due to the carling cup two out of these four games will be cancelled
    Hull Burnley
    City Utd
    Leicester Liverpool
    Southampton Arsenal
    Their is a chance these games could get refixed for the midweek of gw 26 however that is also scheduled for fa cup 5th rd replays. If they get refixed for the midweek their is no dgws and blanks arising out of the carling cup.

    Gw 28 Fa cup QF After todays results 2 games will now definetly go ahead.
    Bournemouth west ham
    everton wba

    A fair few games will end up getting cancelled and this will be a gw where we struggle to field eleven. These cancelled games will most likely be refixed for the midweek of gw 34 and gw 37.

    GW 34 Fa cup SF After todays results 2 games will definetly go ahead.
    Swansea Stoke
    West ham everton
    Something the majority wont realise which is a big change from last year. The midweek after this gw is free so we will have less blanks and less dgw teams. Games can just be switched from the sat till the wed or teams will have a blank on the sat as they are in fa cup sf and will then have the game they were supposed to have in gw 28 moved in here. Giving them no blank and no double.

    Gw 37 Will be a dgw any cancelled games not refixed will go in here more than likely the teams that have made the Fa cup sf as they will play their refixed game cancelled due to fa cup qf in gw 34.

    In summary I dont think there is going to be the dgw bonanza we have had in previous years. Their will be less blanks and in turn less dgws. A 15 player dgw BB is highly unlikely to be possible and if your going down that route your looking at 6 teams max or playing it in dgw37 when massive rotation usually kicks in.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 17,022 ✭✭✭✭ Iused2likebusts


    What happened last year
    GW 27 newcastle city
    liverpool everton cancelled for carling cup

    Gw 30 utd palace
    sunderland everton
    west ham watford
    Arsenal wba
    liverpool chelsea cancelled for fa cup qf

    GW 33 Palace everton DGW

    GW 34 DGW
    newcastle city
    west ham watford
    utd palace
    liverpool everton

    Gw 35 Palace everton
    norwich watford
    west ham man utd cancelled for fa cup sf

    GW 37 DGW
    West ham man utd
    Norwich watford
    liverpool chelsea
    sunderland everton

    9 dgw matches 18 teams spread out over 3 gws. Their was an added complication last year as everton had a game cancelled last year due to carling cup and made the fa SF so needed another 2 games refixed. Thats why we had a dgw 33 that clashed with a midweek CL tie as there was nowhere else for that fixture could go.

    If we look at this years circumstance GW 34 is fa cup SF and the midweek where games will get refixed to so in effect gw 34 and 35 combined from last year. All thing being equal what would have happened.

    Gw 33 DGW everton palace
    GW 34 DGW for newcastle, man city and everton, a blank for norwich and a sgw for 16 teams.
    GW 37 DGW exactly the same as what happened. So a dgw for 8 teams. Not an ideal week for BB due to rotation.

    13 teams would have dgws spread over 3 gws and the one main skinny week will be fa cup qf weekend.
    Its complicated stuff so hopefully I havent made a mistake


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,660 ✭✭✭ ScummyMan


    Great work Busts. It's a pity as DGW planning was one of my favourite elements of FF. I'll probably use my bench boost on a single GW now, TC though will definitely be kept for a double baring something crazy happening.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,267 ✭✭✭✭ FHFC


    Superb analysis as ever.

    I was looking at this a bit during the week and the fact it was looking like the main DGW would be 37 is a concern. Rotation plus its very very late to hold the wildcard. You'll only get 2 weeks benefit.

    It may be helpful to use it late to get rid of and 'on the beach' teams assets, but still. Not great.

    Another potential way to gain a bit from a late WC is to play it after GW28 allowing you to stock up on players with no blanks and field a very strong side that week. Then fix it for GW29 with an eye on the DGWs which will be clearer by then.

    Finally, once you (as much as possible) avoid teams with nothing to play for in the league, or cup distractions like Liverpool last year, rotation should be less of an issue this year. Last year most of the teams still fighting for something in the league had no DGW while team with cup priorities or less interest in the league did. So most of the DGW options were rotation prone, while Mahrez, Vardy, Fuchs, Toby, Alli and Kane had no DGW. That was quite an odd scenario.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,006 ✭✭✭ the whole year inn


    Great post!


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,267 ✭✭✭✭ FHFC


    Finally, the Ben Crellin awesome spreadsheet is again being updated as games happen.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AXOuLIzI4un4adZxpsTCN7amF8Go81NHAPZcbi51ZbI/edit?usp=sharing

    In particular this is a great page with odds of blanks for GW28 based on hte odds of teams progressing. This will firm up a whole lot when the rest of R3 is played and the R4 draw made.

    At present only projecting 4 blanks but the info is very sketchy as yet.

    405733.JPG


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,666 ✭✭✭ ElTel


    Never too early and thanks for getting it going Busts.
    And the spreadsheet is here!!! Thanks FHFC


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 641 raiders11


    After seeing this tonight, am delighted I joined boards in this last few months for help/info.. Has being massive help n the info on this thread hopefully will help more, carefully plan my wildcard..


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,938 ✭✭✭ klopparama


    Brilliant work lads.

    If only I could understand the half of it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,022 ✭✭✭✭ Iused2likebusts


    FHFC wrote: »
    Superb analysis as ever.

    I was looking at this a bit during the week and the fact it was looking like the main DGW would be 37 is a concern. Rotation plus its very very late to hold the wildcard. You'll only get 2 weeks benefit.

    It may be helpful to use it late to get rid of and 'on the beach' teams assets, but still. Not great.

    Another potential way to gain a bit from a late WC is to play it after GW28 allowing you to stock up on players with no blanks and field a very strong side that week. Then fix it for GW29 with an eye on the DGWs which will be clearer by then.

    Finally, once you (as much as possible) avoid teams with nothing to play for in the league, or cup distractions like Liverpool last year, rotation should be less of an issue this year. Last year most of the teams still fighting for something in the league had no DGW while team with cup priorities or less interest in the league did. So most of the DGW options were rotation prone, while Mahrez, Vardy, Fuchs, Toby, Alli and Kane had no DGW. That was quite an odd scenario.

    Ye I think for those holding the wildcard the stock up for gw 28 and then play it after is a good idea. For those that have used wildcard we should have it easier this year. The gap between the skinny week gw 28 and the dgw 34 is 6 gws instead of 4 gws last year so more free transfers.Also dgw 34 shouldn't have too many teams with a dgw. No added complication of a skinny week just after a dgw and more than likely the main dgw being in gw37 which gives us even more transfers. TC is the chip I'll be focusing on for the dgws.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,953 ✭✭✭✭ alchemist33


    With so much to play for in the top 6, a DGW37 should give us plenty of rotation-free TC options .


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,267 ✭✭✭✭ FHFC


    TC is the chip I'll be focusing on for the dgws.

    Undoubtedly TC is the most important one to get right for the DGWs. And even then like every captain call theres a huge element of luck involved. But you have to give yourself the best statistical chance.

    The layout of the potential dgw fixtures will be huge. I was thinking about it this morning and assuming 37 is the main DGW and 34 is a DGW 'lite'.....then if there is no standout TC option in 34 it mitigates against using the BB in the 'big' DGW. If the best TC option appears to be in 37 then it should be priority imo.

    In that case, for late wildcarders using the WC to maximize DWGers for 34 could work well. If only maybe 4 teams to choose from then 7 or 8 DGW players (incl your bench 4) would be way more than most. Then you'd have 4 fts to set up for 37 and TC.

    In other words that option would be:
      * WC Gw33 getting a GK and 2 cheapish defs with decent DGW34 fixtures and optimising the rest of the team while keeping the main SGW big hitters. * BB GW34 and bank transfer. * Set up for 5 or 6 at least DGWers for 37 and TC.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,267 ✭✭✭✭ FHFC


    With so much to play for in the top 6, a DGW37 should give us plenty of rotation-free TC options .

    This a good point too.

    Probably the ideal scenario for a late WC is a small DGW34 with a standout TC option and a huge DGW37 which (unlike last year) involves most of the top 6 still competing for the title or CL spots and out of the Cup/Europe.

    In this scenario, with only 1 week to manage after the DGW the largely mythical 15 DGW player team could actually work.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,747 Ziegler1988


    Going by the usual rule of Pl games being refixed for midweeks when their is no CL. The only Gws available are the the midweek after Gw 26, 34,37. This rule has been very occasionally broken but its frowned upon.

    The EPFL said they've stopped this agreement: http://www.espnfc.us/uefa-champions-league/story/2978094/epfl-ends-agreement-with-uefa-on-champions-league-dates

    Who knows what Sky will want to do for a rearranged TV selection, whether to go up against BT's Champions League coverage or have it be the only option like previous seasons.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,022 ✭✭✭✭ Iused2likebusts


    The EPFL said they've stopped this agreement: http://www.espnfc.us/uefa-champions-league/story/2978094/epfl-ends-agreement-with-uefa-on-champions-league-dates

    Who knows what Sky will want to do for a rearranged TV selection, whether to go up against BT's Champions League coverage or have it be the only option like previous seasons.

    It still most likely the games will be fixed for when there is no European fixtures IMO. Unless we have a repeat of what happened with Everton last year with 3 games to be refixed.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,022 ✭✭✭✭ Iused2likebusts


    Maximum of 11 pl teams will be through to the last 16 after the draw. Very favourable draws for most of the teams.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,440 ✭✭✭✭ ArmaniJeanss


    The EPFL said they've stopped this agreement: http://www.espnfc.us/uefa-champions-league/story/2978094/epfl-ends-agreement-with-uefa-on-champions-league-dates

    Who knows what Sky will want to do for a rearranged TV selection, whether to go up against BT's Champions League coverage or have it be the only option like previous seasons.

    I don't think the Premier League is a member of the EPLF.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,267 ✭✭✭✭ FHFC


    Maximum of 11 pl teams will be through to the last 16 after the draw. Very favourable draws for most of the teams.

    Looks like at least 5 and still a good chance of 7 or 8 blank fixtures GW26!! :eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,747 Ziegler1988


    I don't think the Premier League is a member of the EPLF.

    They are: http://www.epfl-europeanleagues.com/about_us.htm

    I don't think Sky is going to put a televised match up against a Champions League semifinal to make DGW35 or 36 readily; it's an option now for the other matches that have to be rearranged.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,022 ✭✭✭✭ Iused2likebusts


    FHFC wrote: »
    Looks like at least 5 and still a good chance of 7 or 8 blank fixtures GW26!! :eek:

    Depends on the 5th round draw. Tonights draw was great for dgws. No new blanks because of it. Most teams got very favourable draws.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,267 ✭✭✭✭ FHFC


    Depends on the 5th round draw. Tonights draw was great for dgws. No new blanks because of it. Most teams got very favourable draws.

    Ah here. I was a round ahead of myself there and getting carried away! :)

    And meant to say GW28.

    Think I need an early night!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 38,802 ✭✭✭✭ KevIRL


    Could the incoming bad weather affect games this weekend?


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,267 ✭✭✭✭ FHFC


    KevIRL wrote: »
    Could the incoming bad weather affect games this weekend?

    That would be fun! :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,712 ✭✭✭✭ Green&Red


    This is making my head hurt


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,452 ✭✭✭ Cartman78


    Got a few flashbacks there from last weeks DGW planning....spent endless hours meticulously drafting, re-editing and finalising the perfect squad.........


    .....and then used my precious TC Chip on Andy fekken Carroll :eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,415 ✭✭✭✭ dsmythy


    KevIRL wrote: »
    Could the incoming bad weather affect games this weekend?

    Should be no more than a couple of orange balls on show if even that.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,274 ✭✭✭✭ Mr.Prodston


    What's to plan? :confused:

    Sunderland DGW 37 vs Swansea + Another.

    Sorted.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,259 ✭✭✭ dr.kenneth noisewater


    What's to plan? :confused:

    Sunderland DGW 37 vs Swansea + Another.

    Sorted.
    PVA TC?


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,712 ✭✭✭✭ Green&Red


    PVA TC?

    Seb Larsson will have played himself into contention by that stage #bandwagon


  • Registered Users Posts: 47,773 ✭✭✭✭ km79


    Carling cup final gw26
    United due to play city that weekend in league


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,747 Ziegler1988


    km79 wrote: »
    Carling cup final gw26
    United due to play city that weekend in league

    Quite likely that Ibra and Aguero could both have blanks GW26 and 28


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