Brexit: The Last Stand (No name calling)

Anita Blow · 25-11-2016 03:03PM

United Ireland won't happen in the medium-long term. It's socially incompatible with the Republic who has largely moved on from identity politics and tribalism. Financially we absolutely couldn't afford to give them the standard of life they expect the UK taxpayer to subsidise.

jmayo · 25-11-2016 03:13PM

Unpossible wrote: »

For me, the cost is only one aspect. From working with people from the north, and from everything I've seen and read about/from unionists and nationalists in the north I really want nothing to do with the place.

I do wish everyone in NI well and hope everything works out for all of you, but I don't want a United Ireland.

This is the thing.
Posters of a certain persuasion are hopping up and down in glee looking at trends in religious population breakdown in Northern Ireland.
How many have said that the gap between protestants and catholics is closing and thus unification is a sure thing.

Except they neglect to look at the other actual country involved.

Remember how on a recent TV program when asked most people in the Republic were pro unification.
A huge percentage.

Except then when they were told it could cost a massive amount and tax would have to jump to pay for all those state funded jobs and the extra policing, a very sizable chunk immediately said no thanks, leave it to the British.
Hell even some catholics in Northern Ireland appear to be lukewarm when they figured how they may be financially worse off.

The day is gone when a lot of people in the south are devout catholics and have gotten the ultra nationalist upbringing and schooling that fostered and demanded the desire for a United Ireland.

A sizable chunk of people in the Republic look at Northern Ireland and see a black financial hole, some nationalists who have chip on their shoulder that they were abandoned by the South and a chunk of unionists who despise everything about the Republic and probably would be quiet willing to adopt terrorism if pushed to join the Republic.
The flags and emblems, the marching season, the arguments over a poppy, the painting of kerbstones, etc, etc.
Most people in the Republic don't want any of that shyte.

Then add in the fact that people benefit from the actual two jurisdictions, not least one of the organisations who have actually fought to create just one entity.

Funny given the topic I know someone off to Northern Ireland tomorrow to fill his prescriptions because it will be a third of the price he pays in the Republic.
Will he vote for unification and higher drug costs ?

And yes like almost every election/referendum it can come down to how much money is in your pocket and what is best for you and your family at the end of the day.

FrancieBrady · 25-11-2016 03:16PM

jmayo wrote: »

This is the thing.
Posters of a certain persuasion are hopping up and down in glee looking at trends in religious population breakdown in Northern Ireland.
How many have said that the gap between protestants and catholics is closing and thus unification is a sure thing.

Except they neglect to look at the other actual country involved.

Remember how on a recent TV program when asked most people in the Republic were pro unification.
A huge percentage.

Except then when they were told it could cost a massive amount and tax would have to jump to pay for all those state funded jobs and the extra policing, a very sizable chunk immediately said no thanks, leave it to the British.
Hell even some catholics in Northern Ireland appear to be lukewarm when they figured how they may be financially worse off.

The day is gone when a lot of people in the south are devout catholics and have gotten the ultra nationalist upbringing and schooling that fostered and demanded the desire for a United Ireland.

A sizable chunk of people in the Republic look at Northern Ireland and see a black financial hole, some nationalists who have chip on their shoulder that they were abandoned by the South and a chunk of unionists who despise everything about the Republic and probably would be quiet willing to adopt terrorism if pushed to join the Republic.
The flags and emblems, the marching season, the arguments over a poppy, the painting of kerbstones, etc, etc.
Most people in the Republic don't want any of that shyte.

Then add in the fact that people benefit from the actual two jurisdictions, not least one of the organisations who have actually fought to create just one entity.

Funny given the topic I know someone off to Northern Ireland tomorrow to fill his prescriptions because it will be a third of the price he pays in the Republic.
Will he vote for unification and higher drug costs ?

And yes like almost every election/referendum it can come down to how much money is in your pocket and what is best for you and your family at the end of the day.

What the Unionists Brexiters may unwittingly have done is make it expedient for Britain to want rid and for the ROI to benefit longterm.

A perfect storm, so to speak. Unionism's greatest nightmare.

catbear · 25-11-2016 03:21PM

Anita Blow wrote: »

United Ireland won't happen in the medium-long term. It's socially incompatible with the Republic who has largely moved on from identity politics and tribalism. Financially we absolutely couldn't afford to give them the standard of life they expect the UK taxpayer to subsidise.

Well the same can be said of the former East Germany, that region may still lag economically and many in the former west germany might complain but a demand for a reversal isn't there. They know its an ingrained institutionalization that takes a generation or two to be supplanted.

A united Ireland isn't some utopia, its a challenge but the risks of not reunifying in a post brexit environment have to weighed on the same scale.

jmayo · 25-11-2016 03:21PM

catbear wrote: »

Another option could be a regional government within a united ireland.

It doesn't matter, it will be who picks up the tab and if United Ireland then the taxpayers in what is currently the Republic would be coughing up big time.

When partition happened Northern Ireland was an industrial powerhouse, like much of Northern England, but today it is reliant on the state.

steddyeddy · 25-11-2016 03:22PM

I think NI will be worse off in the future. I think part of the problem is that NI is run properly by the Brits

Christy42 · 25-11-2016 03:23PM

Anita Blow wrote: »

United Ireland won't happen in the medium-long term. It's socially incompatible with the Republic who has largely moved on from identity politics and tribalism. Financially we absolutely couldn't afford to give them the standard of life they expect the UK taxpayer to subsidise.

The UK might want to push it. The savings to the tax payer would be massive and be of great help to the government over there who are about to be in charge of a tanking economy. Unionism may also have issues with the side of politics they have taken. Taking the hardline religious stance on things like abortion and gay marriage will reduce their support from the youth going forward.

Not saying any of your points are wrong. The Republic including myself don't want to have to figure out the unholy mess of an economy that has been created in a place where no politician has been elected for their economic platform. Then there is also the social unrest as you can expect the unionists to step up a large campaign of violence.

The north is quickly headed to a place where no one wants to deal with their *&/*.

A Little Pony · 25-11-2016 03:30PM

catbear wrote: »

Anita Blow wrote: »

United Ireland won't happen in the medium-long term. It's socially incompatible with the Republic who has largely moved on from identity politics and tribalism. Financially we absolutely couldn't afford to give them the standard of life they expect the UK taxpayer to subsidise.

Well the same can be said of the former East Germany, that region may still lag economically and many in the former west germany might complain but a demand for a reversal isn't there. They know its an ingrained institutionalization that takes a generation or two to be supplanted.

A united Ireland isn't some utopia, its a challenge but the risks of not reunifying in a post brexit environment have to weighed on the same scale.

Germany and Northern Ireland aren't a good comparison. An Irish politician was on the Nolan show not long ago and said the ROI can't afford it.

Anita Blow · 25-11-2016 03:31PM

Christy42 wrote: »

Anita Blow wrote: »

United Ireland won't happen in the medium-long term. It's socially incompatible with the Republic who has largely moved on from identity politics and tribalism. Financially we absolutely couldn't afford to give them the standard of life they expect the UK taxpayer to subsidise.

The UK might want to push it. The savings to the tax payer would be massive and be of great help to the government over there who are about to be in charge of a tanking economy. Unionism may also have issues with the side of politics they have taken. Taking the hardline religious stance on things like abortion and gay marriage will reduce their support from the youth going forward.

Not saying any of your points are wrong. The Republic including myself don't want to have to figure out the unholy mess of an economy that has been created in a place where no politician has been elected for their economic platform. Then there is also the social unrest as you can expect the unionists to step up a large campaign of violence.

The north is quickly headed to a place where no one wants to deal with their *&/*.

It doesn't really matter what the UK want. They can't eject NI from the UK and neither can they force us to take NI on. NI is not capable of existing independently nor can Ireland support it so their only option is to exist within the UK.
I can say with certainty that despite high levels of ideological support today, a border poll would not pass in the republic once people learn of the money required & the political compromises necessary for a united Ireland.

ohnonotgmail · 25-11-2016 03:33PM

jmayo wrote: »

This is the thing.
Posters of a certain persuasion are hopping up and down in glee looking at trends in religious population breakdown in Northern Ireland.
How many have said that the gap between protestants and catholics is closing and thus unification is a sure thing.

Except they neglect to look at the other actual country involved.

Remember how on a recent TV program when asked most people in the Republic were pro unification.
A huge percentage.

Except then when they were told it could cost a massive amount and tax would have to jump to pay for all those state funded jobs and the extra policing, a very sizable chunk immediately said no thanks, leave it to the British.
Hell even some catholics in Northern Ireland appear to be lukewarm when they figured how they may be financially worse off.

The day is gone when a lot of people in the south are devout catholics and have gotten the ultra nationalist upbringing and schooling that fostered and demanded the desire for a United Ireland.

A sizable chunk of people in the Republic look at Northern Ireland and see a black financial hole, some nationalists who have chip on their shoulder that they were abandoned by the South and a chunk of unionists who despise everything about the Republic and probably would be quiet willing to adopt terrorism if pushed to join the Republic.
The flags and emblems, the marching season, the arguments over a poppy, the painting of kerbstones, etc, etc.
Most people in the Republic don't want any of that shyte.

Then add in the fact that people benefit from the actual two jurisdictions, not least one of the organisations who have actually fought to create just one entity.

Funny given the topic I know someone off to Northern Ireland tomorrow to fill his prescriptions because it will be a third of the price he pays in the Republic.
Will he vote for unification and higher drug costs ?

And yes like almost every election/referendum it can come down to how much money is in your pocket and what is best for you and your family at the end of the day.

assuming you are referring to me in that you have completely got the wrong end of the stick. You missed have skipped a couple of pages.

FrancieBrady · 25-11-2016 03:35PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

Germany and Northern Ireland aren't a good comparison. An Irish politician was on the Nolan show not long ago and said the ROI can't afford it.

Unionism is in trouble if Britain decides it needs the money and the ROI decides it can gain after an initial economic hit.

Both governments know (as a result of their joint agreement and inter governmental dealings) that something radical needs to happen. Brexit has made that more urgent now.

catbear · 25-11-2016 03:42PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

I think NI will be worse off in the future. I think part of the problem is that NI is run properly by the Brits

It took the Troubles and suspension of Storemont to achieve that!

Removed subsidies and see how everyone hangs together.

The problem as I see it at the moment is that the region is at a three way junction, straight means staying in the UK but leaving the EU, the other two options are self determination and reunification.

Now if it was economics that drove industrial ulster to reject being part of the agrarian free state, then it will be economics that will drive the end of partition.

The choice will be to either go with the self immolating Brexiteers with no plan or stay in the largest trade bloc as part of the republic in a rapidly changing global reordering.

No one expects the unionists to be happy about it but London has already betrayed them and getting angry at us is fruitless.

A Little Pony · 25-11-2016 03:50PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

Germany and Northern Ireland aren't a good comparison. An Irish politician was on the Nolan show not long ago and said the ROI can't afford it.

Unionism is in trouble if Britain decides it needs the money and the ROI decides it can gain after an initial economic hit.

Both governments know (as a result of their joint agreement and inter governmental dealings) that something radical needs to happen. Brexit has made that more urgent now.

Nothing radical is going to happen. The cost implications for starters are too much for the Irish state as they have admitted. I hope no one falls for Enda Kenny and his nonsense.

A Little Pony · 25-11-2016 03:52PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Obj-NpadJAc

FrancieBrady · 25-11-2016 03:53PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

Nothing radical is going to happen. The cost implications for starters are too much for the Irish state as they have admitted. I hope no one falls for Enda Kenny and his nonsense.

The 'state' said no such thing.
But as you mention it, Enda would be about as close as you can get to the head of state and he thinks it is now a good time to have this discussion.

And it is important to note that he is saying these things without fear of an Arlene strop.

Christy42 · 25-11-2016 04:02PM

Anita Blow wrote: »

It doesn't really matter what the UK want. They can't eject NI from the UK and neither can they force us to take NI on. NI is not capable of existing independently nor can Ireland support it so their only option is to exist within the UK.
I can say with certainty that despite high levels of ideological support today, a border poll would not pass in the republic once people learn of the money required & the political compromises necessary for a united Ireland.

There are a few things they could do such as removing funding or sticking the border at their ports as opposed to the NI border.

A quick shift isn't needed either. You could have a slow increase of Irish funding going up there and both governments trying to increase business up there to make it ready. As is the situation does not support both countries going in different directions and I have to imagine eventually someone will want NI to have an economic plan.

I am not sure how this will all play out but I think something will have to change in NI in the next few years.

A Little Pony · 25-11-2016 04:18PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

Nothing radical is going to happen. The cost implications for starters are too much for the Irish state as they have admitted. I hope no one falls for Enda Kenny and his nonsense.

The 'state' said no such thing.
But as you mention it, Enda would be about as close as you can get to the head of state and he thinks it is now a good time to have this discussion.

And it is important to note that he is saying these things without fear of an Arlene strop.

No discussion has happened or is even likely to happen. I'm not sure if most people up here know who Enda Kenny is. He hardly holds much influence over the political narrative here.

steddyeddy · 25-11-2016 04:29PM

catbear wrote: »

It took the Troubles and suspension of Storemont to achieve that!

Removed subsidies and see how everyone hangs together.

The problem as I see it at the moment is that the region is at a three way junction, straight means staying in the UK but leaving the EU, the other two options are self determination and reunification.

Now if it was economics that drove industrial ulster to reject being part of the agrarian free state, then it will be economics that will drive the end of partition.

The choice will be to either go with the self immolating Brexiteers with no plan or stay in the largest trade bloc as part of the republic in a rapidly changing global reordering.

No one expects the unionists to be happy about it but London has already betrayed them and getting angry at us is fruitless.

This bit in bold exactly. They have been hating each other from day one with no sign of changing. They're constantly engaged in childish mud slinging and more bitter hatred for so long now that NI's economy is in the pan.

They've bot had to suffer the effects of their actions because the taxpayer shields them by subsidies. Remove these and lets see some real priorities.

catbear · 25-11-2016 04:56PM

I won't be surprised if the hard unionists relocate to the mothership like johnny Adair and his buds did. Without the backstop of the British army they'll be all bark and no bite.

What may surprise people though is how sections of that community will become active towards economic reunification. I stress economic because from day one they'll be fighting the same fight as the other irish regions for opportunity but will be far more hardnosed about it.

Free from the shackles of the old divisions it will be down to business. They'd happily steal multinationals from expensive Dublin. All is fair in love and war.

Anita Blow · 25-11-2016 05:14PM

Christy42 wrote: »

There are a few things they could do such as removing funding or sticking the border at their ports as opposed to the NI border.

A quick shift isn't needed either. You could have a slow increase of Irish funding going up there and both governments trying to increase business up there to make it ready. As is the situation does not support both countries going in different directions and I have to imagine eventually someone will want NI to have an economic plan.

I am not sure how this will all play out but I think something will have to change in NI in the next few years.

Why would Irish funding to NI increase given our own budgetary difficulties? No government in the short to medium term would do that. Nevermind the fact that it makes little since to give state aid to enhance the competitiveness of what is another country's economy

FrancieBrady · 25-11-2016 05:31PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

No discussion has happened or is even likely to happen.

How do you know?
Your masters have no history of telling you who they are negotiating with behind your backs to get a better deal for themselves. For all we know Enda could be upping the ante after discussing it with the British first.
Don't tell me you trust the British government in matters such as these?

I'm not sure if most people up here know who Enda Kenny is. He hardly holds much influence over the political narrative here.

They know very well who he is. Look at the spin he sent Arlene into recently.

Capt'n Midnight · 25-11-2016 05:33PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

A great patriot who believes in Brexit so much he's moving his family out of the UK.

And keeping his EU job after ditching his UK one.

Capt'n Midnight · 25-11-2016 05:43PM

Unpossible wrote: »

On the BREXIT front Malta's PM says no free movement = no access to the single market.
link.

But Malta has only 0.1% of the EU's population.

ROLF

Ted_YNWA · 25-11-2016 05:44PM

They have the same number of vetoes as Germany.

Christy42 · 25-11-2016 05:46PM

Anita Blow wrote: »

Why would Irish funding to NI increase given our own budgetary difficulties? No government in the short to medium term would do that. Nevermind the fact that it makes little since to give state aid to enhance the competitiveness of what is another country's economy

In exchange for keeping the border open. I am really not sure what will happen. The UK seem set on screwing themselves up and the border issue will hurt Ireland a lot. Brexit supporters and Brexit leaders seem to think the world should revolve around whst they do but there should still be room to do a deal with them. A border will fail horrifically and I can't see another way around it if the British don't see sense.

Anita Blow · 25-11-2016 08:39PM

Christy42 wrote: »

Anita Blow wrote: »

Why would Irish funding to NI increase given our own budgetary difficulties? No government in the short to medium term would do that. Nevermind the fact that it makes little since to give state aid to enhance the competitiveness of what is another country's economy

In exchange for keeping the border open. I am really not sure what will happen. The UK seem set on screwing themselves up and the border issue will hurt Ireland a lot. Brexit supporters and Brexit leaders seem to think the world should revolve around whst they do but there should still be room to do a deal with them. A border will fail horrifically and I can't see another way around it if the British don't see sense.

A border would definitely be a social/political blow, but not an economic one to the republic. NI takes around 2% of our exports while we take >42% of theirs. A border would hurt them far more than us, so I imagine the UK will do what is necessary to keep it open and so that they don't have to pump even more money into it if their exports collapse

Iwasfrozen · 26-11-2016 08:27PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I have always been of the opinion that it won't necessarily be developments on this island that will bring about a UI.
The attitude shift required to have a FG Taoiseach talking about this is quite seismic imo.
How far away are we from having a proper 2 island debate and detailed look at what is involved?

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/kenny-says-brexit-could-bring-about-united-ireland-1.2881284

You're projecting your wishes onto reality. A UI is no closer to happening now than it was when the gfa was signed.

There's also no debate to have, not until the majority in NI vote to join us anyway.

steddyeddy · 26-11-2016 08:55PM

The price of the chemicals we buy has gone up dramatically. I wish they would get this over with.

FrancieBrady · 26-11-2016 09:05PM

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

You're projecting your wishes onto reality. A UI is no closer to happening now than it was when the gfa was signed.

There's also no debate to have, not until the majority in NI vote to join us anyway.

And Unionism has openly wished talk of it would go away. i.e. Arlene's antics.

Iwasfrozen · 26-11-2016 09:28PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

And Unionism has openly wished talk of it would go away. i.e. Arlene's antics.

Talk of it will never go away but that's all it has been, talk. To reiterate a UI is no closer to happening now than it was when the gfa was signed. That alone is a strategic victory for unionism.

Brexit: The Last Stand (No name calling)

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