Brexit: The Last Stand (No name calling)

Zubeneschamali · 10-11-2016 10:27AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Trade for trade's sake, the very essence of globalisation the unnecessary import and export of goods and services that can easily be made locally by local people.

If folks in the UK could "easily" make the stuff they now import, why aren't they doing it? Because they cannot "easily" make it as cheaply.

So making it in the UK will require trade barriers to keep cheap imports out, and price rises to pay UK people what it costs to make them in the UK.

Trade barriers on imports to the UK will result in other countries retaliating, for example by hitting UK exports (e.g. services and financial stuff) with tariffs, leading to a drop in UK exports, and less cash coming in.

Result: Inflation and falling living standards in a protectionist UK.

wes · 10-11-2016 10:36AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Trade for trade's sake, the very essence of globalisation the unnecessary import and export of goods and services that can easily be made locally by local people.
The people are now rejecting globalisation, Brexit and Trump getting elected are clear signs of that rejection.

Interesting, seeing as Brexiters were going on about trade deals with China and India etc. Sure May was just in India trying to set the ground for a trade deal.

As for Trump, he didn't win the popular vote, so it isn't quite a clear as you make it out to be.

Having said all that you are right, the people who have lost out to globalism, are rejecting it. The problem is, that when those people realize that most manufacturing if it does come back to the West, will be heavily automated. Good news for programmers, engineers etc, not so much for the rest.

MrPudding · 10-11-2016 04:06PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If folks in the UK could "easily" make the stuff they now import, why aren't they doing it? Because they cannot "easily" make it as cheaply.

So making it in the UK will require trade barriers to keep cheap imports out, and price rises to pay UK people what it costs to make them in the UK.

Trade barriers on imports to the UK will result in other countries retaliating, for example by hitting UK exports (e.g. services and financial stuff) with tariffs, leading to a drop in UK exports, and less cash coming in.

Result: Inflation and falling living standards in a protectionist UK.

This is one of the ironies. One of the reasons much production was shipped out was because people demanded cheaper prices, but they don't make that connection. I want cheaper products, but I want them to be made in the UK. Similar to people wanted better public services, but to pay less in tax. They don't realise these things are pretty much mutually exclusive.

I don't think there have been any bigger occurrences of turkeys voting for Christmas than brexit and Trump. Trump is the perfect example, the demographic that voted most for him, non-college educated, is exactly the group that is going to get most fcuked by him. Even if he does manage to bring jobs back those people likely won't be able to afford them.

Looking at the brexit voters it appears to be a similar demographic. People mostly in unskilled, or no, jobs. Even if those jobs come back from lower wage countries the prices will increase. Those jobs are also those at greater risk of being lost to robotics and AI. The biggest risk to the people that voted for brexit is themselves and their own government. A government that seems to be mindless running towards an economic disaster to appease a dangerously ignorant and divisive section of its own party and a small majority of people that were lied to and voted in a referendum. Madness.

MrP

10-11-2016 08:19PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If folks in the UK could "easily" make the stuff they now import, why aren't they doing it? Because they cannot "easily" make it as cheaply.

So making it in the UK will require trade barriers to keep cheap imports out, and price rises to pay UK people what it costs to make them in the UK.

Trade barriers on imports to the UK will result in other countries retaliating, for example by hitting UK exports (e.g. services and financial stuff) with tariffs, leading to a drop in UK exports, and less cash coming in.

Result: Inflation and falling living standards in a protectionist UK.

The pro Brexit and the Trump campaigns were aimed at the "Homer Simpson’s" of this world and they voted in their droves.

If only one country invoked a protectionist policy, then yes, they'll lose out.
But if the largest economy in the world does so along with a major middle ranking one, that will blow a big hole in the "global market".

Yes, it will cause costs to rise, but not by too much as there is a significant cost involved in global trading via middlemen who take their cut.

Globalisation was mainly a political exercise in breaking the unions in western manufacturing countries and it was a resounding success. Just look at all the jobs Reagan and Thatcher eliminated in the 1980s.

The world is changing so rapidly now that none of the old assumptions about inflation can be relied on.

I for one really have absolutely no idea how this will all play out.

Snickers Man · 11-11-2016 04:59PM

jmayo wrote: »

The EU or EEC opened up free trade within Europe.
It facilitated the free movement of people and capital.
Then World trade agreements...yadda yadda..........
Thanks for reminding of the days when you didn't get updates about your friend's and neighbour's holidays, weekends away and where they had their latest coffee. :rolleyes:
(expecting more minus points )
.......
Actually deregulation had a huge massive impact.
Oh and the bette noir of the leftie unions and old established airlines, one Mr O'Leary, has had huge affect on our ability to move throughout Europe cheaply.
......

Aircraft were well capable of flying between Ireland and Europe in the 70s and 80s, but our home grown monopoly Aer Lingus and some other national carriers made it unreachable for most normal people......

Yes globalisation is here to stay, but a lot of people are been left behind.

Globalisation benefits the most the ones who have the money.

A lot of people in the Western world are finally copping on to fact that globalisation means the gulf between rich and poor is growing ever steadily.
It is one of the factors behind Trumps whole success.

And please do not resort to that tired cliche .........

You're presuming a lot on my behalf and seem to be working yourself into quite a lather as a consequence.

I fully realise that globalisation does not or has not so far benefited everyone in society. I realise there are many people hurting in America who may have felt they needed to vote for Trump to make their voices heard. I also think that voting for a clown like that if you are a poor person is a shocking case of self harm.

Do you really think he's going to benefit blue-collar America in any way at all? And even if he does, do you think it will be sustainable? He could well throw in some populist goodies in the short term (like big public construction contracts that will generate a lot of blue-collar jobs but may not produce the sort of returns that would pay off the debt incurred and which would soon come under pressure to be halted by the bean counters.

Anyway, my main point is that the phenomenon of Globalisation is PRIMARILY driven by technology advancement, as are most seismic shifts in society. All the "deregulation" and "opening up to competition" and "bringing down barriers to trade" were merely consequences of that.

How do we react to these developments to make things as fair as possible at home and abroad? That's the question. But blaming everything on "neoliberalism" as if all you have to do is elect a clown like Trump to switch off the global economy, is not sufficient.

MrPudding · 12-11-2016 09:49AM

Snickers Man wrote: »

You're presuming a lot on my behalf and seem to be working yourself into quite a lather as a consequence.

I fully realise that globalisation does not or has not so far benefited everyone in society. I realise there are many people hurting in America who may have felt they needed to vote for Trump to make their voices heard. I also think that voting for a clown like that if you are a poor person is a shocking case of self harm.

Do you really think he's going to benefit blue-collar America in any way at all? And even if he does, do you think it will be sustainable? He could well throw in some populist goodies in the short term (like big public construction contracts that will generate a lot of blue-collar jobs but may not produce the sort of returns that would pay off the debt incurred and which would soon come under pressure to be halted by the bean counters.

Anyway, my main point is that the phenomenon of Globalisation is PRIMARILY driven by technology advancement, as are most seismic shifts in society. All the "deregulation" and "opening up to competition" and "bringing down barriers to trade" were merely consequences of that.

How do we react to these developments to make things as fair as possible at home and abroad? That's the question. But blaming everything on "neoliberalism" as if all you have to do is elect a clown like Trump to switch off the global economy, is not sufficient.

This is a very good point. Something like 20% of jobs in America are related to driving in some way most of those jobs are expected to disappear over the next 10 to 15 years. Many other blue collar jobs (as well a a sizeable number of white collar job) are under serious and omens to threat from AI and robotics. Trump does not strike me as the type of president that will either stop those job losses or help the millions of people that simply won't be able to get a job because there won't be anything they can do.

MrP

catbear · 13-11-2016 09:39PM

If trump goes ahead with the wall and major nationwide infrastructure upgrades then I can the dollar being challenged, just like the Pound.

steddyeddy · 13-11-2016 10:48PM

catbear wrote: »

If trump goes ahead with the wall and major nationwide infrastructure upgrades then I can the dollar being challenged, just like the Pound.

Trump will decimate the US economy. I think Europe should do OK out of this but the twin demons of Brexit and Trump will do no one any good.

13-11-2016 11:18PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

Trump will decimate the US economy. I think Europe should do OK out of this but the twin demons of Brexit and Trump will do no one any good.

Indeed.

14-11-2016 12:09AM

catbear wrote: »

If trump goes ahead with the wall and major nationwide infrastructure upgrades then I can the dollar being challenged, just like the Pound.

Judging by the lack of a dive in the USD after the result so far (unlike the Pound that was knocked for six) that's unlikely due to the USD's position as the world's reserve currency.

steddyeddy · 14-11-2016 12:26AM

Candie wrote: »

Indeed.

That's hilarious but worrying. I work in a national energy labs in Colorado and Oakridge and spend a lot of time in the UK. I feel trapped between Brexit and Trump. I don't feel like staying in the UK and I've changed my mind regarding moving to the US full time. I think Switzerland might be my next move.

14-11-2016 12:30AM

steddyeddy wrote: »

That's hilarious but worrying. I work in a national energy labs in Colorado and Oakridge and spend a lot of time in the UK. I feel trapped between Brexit and Trump. I don't feel like staying in the UK and I've changed my mind regarding moving to the US full time. I think Switzerland might be my next move.

I'm from one and live in the other. Rock<>Hard Place.

My parents are partly based in Geneva, they love it there. Desperately expensive to buy or rent in though, makes London look like a cheap option.

catbear · 14-11-2016 12:39AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Judging by the lack of a dive in the USD after the result so far (unlike the Pound that was knocked for six) that's unlikely due to the USD's position as the world's reserve currency.

I totally agree. The USD by its ubiquity and dominance of the commodities markets wasn't going to suffer the same hit as the GBP did.

However anyone holding USD assets will be looking around for alternatives if Trump literally builds a wall of money. Watch for more Yuan pairings in South East asia.

steddyeddy · 14-11-2016 12:50AM

Candie wrote: »

I'm from one and live in the other. Rock<>Hard Place.

My parents are partly based in Geneva, they love it there. Desperately expensive to buy or rent in though, makes London look like a cheap option.

Well it's a practical consideration as much as it is idealogical. My work is in the biological production of fuels and Trump doesn't believe in climate change. So it's likely funding will be cut when he gets in. Switzerland is another world leader in biotech. I'd love to see Geneva although I heard it's expensive. Maybe some other part would suit.

14-11-2016 12:55AM

steddyeddy wrote: »

Well it's a practical consideration as much as it is idealogical. My work is in the biological production of fuels and Trump doesn't believe in climate change. So it's likely funding will be cut when he gets in. Switzerland is another world leader in biotech. I'd love to see Geneva although I heard it's expensive. Maybe some other part would suit.

Not much cheaper anywhere else in the country, it's a great quality of life but you pay dearly for it.

Canada might be an option, no?

I think it's pretty likely that Trump will be a one-term wonder, so it might be worth thinking more long term if you've already gotten the green card.

steddyeddy · 14-11-2016 01:01AM

Candie wrote: »

Not much cheaper anywhere else in the country, it's a great quality of life but you pay dearly for it.

Canada might be an option, no?

I think it's pretty likely that Trump will be a one-term wonder, so it might be worth thinking more long term if you've already gotten the green card.

Yea maybe Canada but it's really the states and Scandinavia that are leading biofuels research. Who knows Candie. I'm actually angry that Trump was voted in. My associates are shocked and Boulder, the city I stay in while in the US isn't a Trump town at all.

He bragged about sexual assault and mocked a disabled reporter yet a large number of peole seen him as fit to lead the country. I cpuldn't imagine raising kids here.

catbear · 14-11-2016 01:01AM

Candie wrote: »

I think it's pretty likely that Trump will be a one-term wonder, so it might be worth thinking more long term if you've already gotten the green card.

Well if his own voters haven't abandoned or turned on him I reckon his health will take a knock. Anyway, Brexit mean Brexit!

Kotek Besar · 14-11-2016 01:06AM

Who keeps changing the thread title? He's clearly a comic genius and wasted as a Boards.ie AH mod.

14-11-2016 01:07AM

steddyeddy wrote: »

Yea maybe Canada but it's really the states and Scandinavia that are leading biofuels research. Who knows Candie. I'm actually angry that Trump was voted in. My associates are shocked and Boulder, the city I stay in while in the US isn't a Trump town at all.

He bragged about sexual assault and mocked a disabled reporter yet a large number of peole seen him as fit to lead the country. I cpuldn't imagine raising kids here.

No, my place is a dark shade of blue. I'd like to say I'm surprised, but I'm not. Brexit knocked the optimism out of me.

I don't think you'd have to worry about him being there by the time you reproduce, and furthermore I suspect by the time his term is up and he's inevitably disappointed his core voter base, that the societal backlash will be gaining sway.

Ironically, Trump being elected could lead to the US being a kinder and more inclusive place. We can only wait and hope.

VinLieger · 14-11-2016 09:57AM

The exodus begins

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-citi-idUSKBN1380GY

Also note the last line

Last month the UK head of Citi, which has 9,000 UK employees, said jobs in London's financial sector would move to other EU countries regardless of what deal Britain strikes on access to the EU's financial services market.

steddyeddy · 14-11-2016 10:34AM

VinLieger wrote: »

The exodus begins

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-citi-idUSKBN1380GY

Also note the last line

And they're moving to Dublin. That should help cushion the Brexit blow a bit.

tomwaterford · 14-11-2016 10:41AM

steddyeddy wrote: »

And they're moving to Dublin. That should help cushion the Brexit blow a bit.

This lunacy....as was quite rightly pointed out during the refugee crisis.....Dublin deos not have the housing for its population as it stands

Why should they take in more jobs and people.....all this will do is to drive cosy of living through the roof further in Dublin!!

VinLieger · 14-11-2016 11:01AM

tomwaterford wrote: »

This lunacy....as was quite rightly pointed out during the refugee crisis.....Dublin deos not have the housing for its population as it stands

Why should they take in more jobs and people.....all this will do is to drive cosy of living through the roof further in Dublin!!

Completely agree, we are going to miss out on such an opportunity by not having adequate housing stock to make the most of brexit businesses moving.

steddyeddy · 14-11-2016 11:01AM

tomwaterford wrote: »

This lunacy....as was quite rightly pointed out during the refugee crisis.....Dublin deos not have the housing for its population as it stands

Why should they take in more jobs and people.....all this will do is to drive cosy of living through the roof further in Dublin!!

Yea I'm afraid of that myself.

catbear · 14-11-2016 11:23AM

But compared to London, Dublin is still cheap for these relocated staff.

Also we are going to start seeing new supply started in recent years finally appear on the market.

Fratton Fred · 14-11-2016 11:28AM

catbear wrote: »

But compared to London, Dublin is still cheap for these relocated staff.

Also we are going to start seeing new supply started in recent years finally appear on the market.

that's presuming they are moving from London. CiTi also have offices in Edinburgh, Derby and Belfast.

They have also denied it http://www.independent.ie/business/jobs/citigroup-denies-jobs-move-to-dublin-35212772.html

steddyeddy · 14-11-2016 12:11PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

that's presuming they are moving from London. CiTi also have offices in Edinburgh, Derby and Belfast.

They have also denied it http://www.independent.ie/business/jobs/citigroup-denies-jobs-move-to-dublin-35212772.html

I'm sure they have. My colleague is fairly high up in a Pfizer in Havant. Pfizer are cutting two sites in the UK and Havant is one of them. Work will be transferred from Havant to Belgium. Pfizer said it had nothing to do with Brexit while my mate said it wasn't the direct cause but it certainly influenced the decision. You'll get very few companies saying it was because of Brexit.

Fratton Fred · 14-11-2016 12:45PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

I'm sure they have. My colleague is fairly high up in a Pfizer in Havant. Pfizer are cutting two sites in the UK and Havant is one of them. Work will be transferred from Havant to Belgium. Pfizer said it had nothing to do with Brexit while my mate said it wasn't the direct cause but it certainly influenced the decision. You'll get very few companies saying it was because of Brexit.

Why would they not say it is due to Brexit?

Havant has been in steady decline for decades, ever since they moved SMA to Limerick. I believe Pfizer are now looking to sell it, as they did their site in Dun Laoghaire. Pfizer also closed Wyeth's head office in Taplow a few years ago.

I doubt very much this has anything to do with Brexit and more to do with Pfizer being under a lot of financial pressure due to a lot of expiring patents.

steddyeddy · 14-11-2016 01:04PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Why would they not say it is due to Brexit?

Havant has been in steady decline for decades, ever since they moved SMA to Limerick. I believe Pfizer are now looking to sell it, as they did their site in Dun Laoghaire. Pfizer also closed Wyeth's head office in Taplow a few years ago.

I doubt very much this has anything to do with Brexit and more to do with Pfizer being under a lot of financial pressure due to a lot of expiring patents.

Our lab lost 400k and we're not saying it's due to Brexit due to the political climate.

Fratton Fred · 14-11-2016 01:14PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

Our lab lost 400k and we're not saying it's due to Brexit due to the political climate.

Apples and oranges.

Pfizer have been closing sites globally for several years, this us just a continuation of that.

It is probably accelerating due to the failed merger with Astra-Zeneca, but this is not connected to Brexit.

Brexit: The Last Stand (No name calling)

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