Brexit: The Last Stand (No name calling)

wes · 24-10-2016 11:27AM

LordSutch wrote: »

Chris Grayling 'convinced' of tariff-free trade deal after Brexit.

http://news.sky.com/story/chris-grayling-convinced-of-tariff-free-trade-deal-after-brexit-10629341

PM says Brexit will require 'give and take' ...

He is right about the relationship with Canada being different. A lot of people in Europe have warm feelings about Canada...... and even with that, the trade deal has been difficult.

I can only imagine, that years of lies and smears against the EU, will come back to haunt the UK.

demfad · 24-10-2016 01:08PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good morning!

This isn't how Article 50 works. Vetoing a deal doesn't mean the UK stays in the EU. It means that the UK leaves the EU without a trading relationship and falls back onto WTO regulations. Which would be very very bad for Ireland. It means about 5% on goods exported to the UK with an already weak pound. Irish goods will become less attractive to British consumers and it will hurt Ireland's economy.

Of course then Britain could do all kinds of things to stimulate the economy like dropping corporate tax and unilaterally dropping tariffs for countries that are willing to do the same. At cost in the short term yes. But that would also be bad for the EU.

So yes a veto doesn't keep the UK in the EU. What it does do is say "No deal" and causes the UK to crash out with no deal.

Ireland's best interest is to help the UK get the best deal.

Also passporting into the EU would be painful to lose for the City but it's a tiny proportion of trading activity. London has infrastructure built up since the 80s that other European cities don't have.

With thanks,
solodeogloria

Other European cities have time to start to build up this infrastructure surely.
The armageddon situation for Ireland is that the EU itself disintegrates. Thus a bad deal for Britain might be more beneficial for Ireland if it ensures that the EU remains intact.
Britian still NEEDS many of the goods it imports from Ireland and that eill offset some losses.
Realistically, our trading relationship with the UK will weaken and we need to strategically manage this.
We will need to find sources for our imports.
E.G many of the products on our supermarkets come directly from large warehouses in the West Midlands. This supply route will need to change.
What will be the implications of importing/exporting more from the continent? Will such trade be able to travel via the GB and Holyhead issue free? Do we need to develop one of our Southern ports e.g Rosslare?
Our separation shock from the UK post Brexit will mirror the UK's from the EU. We really need a full ministry.

If the UK are sensible they will negotiate an interim deal with the EU if they are going for a hard Brexit. If they try and negotiate a trade deal we can get a guarantee of no UK corpo tax cut for x years.
The prospects of getting a deal are slim. Spain's price is joint sovereignty over Gibralter.

With the chancellor of the exchequer now sidelined, more and more bad news coming in, I can't see May being able to push the article 50 button on a hard Brexit.

Soft Norway style Brexit or no Brexit. I'd bet on no Brexit.

dinorebel · 24-10-2016 05:02PM

demfad wrote: »

If they try and negotiate a trade deal we can get a guarantee of no UK corpo tax cut for x years.
The prospects of getting a deal are slim. Spain's price is joint sovereignty over Gibralter.

.

If the EU sets conditions like the above the UK will exit with no deal after which the trade relationship automatically reverts to WTO rules.

As for no Brexit happening I would say the chances of that are practically zero.

solodeogloria · 24-10-2016 05:18PM

demfad wrote: »

Other European cities have time to start to build up this infrastructure surely.
The armageddon situation for Ireland is that the EU itself disintegrates. Thus a bad deal for Britain might be more beneficial for Ireland if it ensures that the EU remains intact.
Britian still NEEDS many of the goods it imports from Ireland and that eill offset some losses.
Realistically, our trading relationship with the UK will weaken and we need to strategically manage this.
We will need to find sources for our imports.
E.G many of the products on our supermarkets come directly from large warehouses in the West Midlands. This supply route will need to change.
What will be the implications of importing/exporting more from the continent? Will such trade be able to travel via the GB and Holyhead issue free? Do we need to develop one of our Southern ports e.g Rosslare?
Our separation shock from the UK post Brexit will mirror the UK's from the EU. We really need a full ministry.

If the UK are sensible they will negotiate an interim deal with the EU if they are going for a hard Brexit. If they try and negotiate a trade deal we can get a guarantee of no UK corpo tax cut for x years.
The prospects of getting a deal are slim. Spain's price is joint sovereignty over Gibralter.

With the chancellor of the exchequer now sidelined, more and more bad news coming in, I can't see May being able to push the article 50 button on a hard Brexit.

Soft Norway style Brexit or no Brexit. I'd bet on no Brexit.

Good evening!

It isn't Norway style or no Brexit. The UK is entirely within it's rights to seek a deal that suits it's own interests and the EU is entirely within it's rights to make that bloody hard. I agree with seeking a bespoke deal for Britain because Britain isn't Norway and Norway isn't Switzerland.

It's also worth saying that Britain wants to keep an open trading relationship with Ireland and it's EU partners. The UK isn't saying that it wants to stop buying goods from Ireland. In fact the only party that is discussing raising tariffs here is the European Union. The same is true for the arguments about customs. The spanner in the works isn't Britain. It is the EU. Britain wants to keep trading with the world. Understanding that means understanding that the pdessure should be on the EU to be reasonable.

Of course Ireland would be wise to seek new trade with other countries. Arguably until now it has been quite complacent with the UK and US trading partnership that they currently have. Ireland has grossly under utilised it's membership of the single market. Ireland needs to seek trade elsewhere too to lessen the dependency on the UK. We all agree.

There's also sod all chance of shared sovereignty on Gibraltar. The population supports the current arrangement.

At the end of the day. Brexit is only as hard or as soft as the EU wants to make it. Britain is entirely right to seek a bespoke deal rather than an off the shelf arrangement. I voted remain in the referendum from a pragmatic Eurocritical viewpoint but the people have spoken. No Brexit would be electoral suicide for the Tories. They also have pretty much no opposition worth talking about in the Commons. Of course they will do it.

As for the City - it would take any other city in Europe a long time to catch up. 70 - 80% of all financial services in Europe happens in London depending on your yard stick. It is also the only city in Europe that works as a clearing house for dollar, euro and yen transactions. That's before we talk about talent. New York is really the only city that can compete.

With thanks,
solodeogloria

Junkyard Tom · 24-10-2016 05:26PM

Martin Schulz, the president of the European Parliament ... said Britain will only be given access to the single market if Mrs May accepts the "fundamental rules" of the EU, meaning abiding by freedom of movement rules allowing all European migrants to live and work in the UK.

"I refuse to imagine a Europe where lorries and hedge funds are free to cross borders but citizens are not."

telegraph.co.uk

Britain will not have its chocolate cake and eat it.

Junkyard Tom · 24-10-2016 05:30PM

When I was watching the Champions Cup Rugby at the weekend I was wondering if teams travelling to-and-from the UK from mainland Europe and Ireland would need visas? Does anyone know?

solodeogloria · 24-10-2016 05:35PM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Britain will not have its chocolate cake and eat it.

Good evening!

This is what I mean by Brexit being only as hard or as soft as the EU wants to make it. Britain isn't talking about raising trade barriers.

I fear that the EU will cause itself a substantial amount of harm if it aims to hurt Britain. May is offering an open hand of partnership and cooperation.

Besides having the uncooperative party out of the EU allows for the others to seek closer cooperation to have it. I suspect Ireland will find some of these measures uncomfortable. For example the common EU defence policy being discussed and the Common European corporate tax rate being discussed. The downside of not having a partner in Britain at the table will mean that Ireland will have to stand up for its interests perhaps alone.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

wes · 24-10-2016 05:58PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

This is what I mean by Brexit being only as hard or as soft as the EU wants to make it. Britain isn't talking about raising trade barriers.

May has been talking up a hard Brexit at the Tory conference. Your claim is simply untrue.

Secondly, the UK wants to change the situation, and the simple fact is that the UK getting a better deal out then in, that would lead to the dismantling of the EU. The change is completely on the UK and not the EU.

There is no reason for the EU to offer the UK a bespoke deal or anything of the sort. Brexit is Brexit at the end of the day according to your Prime Minister. I see no benefit in giving the UK special treatment once its outside the EU.

solodeogloria wrote: »

I fear that the EU will cause itself a substantial amount of harm if it aims to hurt Britain. May is offering an open hand of partnership and cooperation.

Years of Europhobia from Britain and Brexit is the exact opposite of what you claim here. The British electorate has flatly rejected partnership and cooperation. She also has Brexiters, who in the case of Boris Johnson, have lied and smeared the EU for years. This sends a very clear message to the EU, and one they have hear loud and clear. The only way she could have made thing worse, was to find a way to give Farage some kind of position.

Simply put, a lot of people in the EU, will be glad to see the back of Britain, after decades of Britain demanding opt outs, blaming all the problems on the EU, and constant smears and lies. At the end of the day, the British electorate made there choice, and there concerns are no longer the EUs.

Ferrari3600 · 24-10-2016 06:01PM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Hopefully it won't harm the British economy too much because it'll be bad for all of us if it does.

Correct.

solodeogloria · 24-10-2016 06:03PM

Good evening!

Can you tell me when May advocated raising trade barriers at the Tory conference?

The term "hard Brexit" or "soft Brexit" weren't used by May and it isn't helpful. Britain is looking for a bespoke deal. It isn't Norway or Switzerland.

As far as I can tell only the EU has been arguing for that. It's true that the electorate gave her a mandate to stop being subject to EU legislation and to restrict immigration, but nobody on Britain's side has been advocating for curbing trade. That has only come from the EU.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Ferrari3600 · 24-10-2016 06:03PM

Which do you chose, the hard or soft option?

Junkyard Tom · 24-10-2016 06:06PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

I fear that the EU will cause itself a substantial amount of harm if it aims to hurt Britain.

So how important would exporting to the UK be to the EU economy after Brexit? EU exports to the UK would represent about 3 percent of EU GDP; not negligible by any means, but equally perhaps not as dramatic as one might think. The EU, and even more so the UK, would certainly have a strong incentive to negotiate a sensible trading arrangement post-Brexit. But no-one should imagine the UK holds all the cards.

niesr.ac.uk

May is offering an open hand of partnership and cooperation.

Is she?

Ferrari3600 · 24-10-2016 06:06PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

Can you tell me when May advocated raising trade barriers at the Tory conference?

As far as I can tell only the EU has been arguing for that. It's true that the electorate gave her a mandate to stop being subject to EU legislation and to restrict immigration, but nobody on Britain's side has been advocating for curbing trade. That has only come from the EU.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Oh, mate.

Dave0301 · 24-10-2016 06:07PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

This is what I mean by Brexit being only as hard or as soft as the EU wants to make it. Britain isn't talking about raising trade barriers.

I fear that the EU will cause itself a substantial amount of harm if it aims to hurt Britain. May is offering an open hand of partnership and cooperation.

Besides having the uncooperative party out of the EU allows for the others to seek closer cooperation to have it. I suspect Ireland will find some of these measures uncomfortable. For example the common EU defence policy being discussed and the Common European corporate tax rate being discussed. The downside of nor having a partner in Britain at the table will mean that Ireland will have to stand up for its interests perhaps alone.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

But it is talking about raising barriers against free movement of EU citizens which means shutting itself out of the free movement of goods and capital.

This is not the EU setting out to hurt Britain, it is just a consequence of Britain wanting to leave the EU.

wes · 24-10-2016 06:11PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Can you tell me when May advocated raising trade barriers at the Tory conference?

Firstly, Brexit by its very nature will result in trade barriers. It is highly disingenuous to pretend otherwise.

The Tories have set course for a ‘hard Brexit’. How long can unity hold?

solodeogloria wrote: »

As far as I can tell only the EU has been arguing for that.

In response to Brexit they have. Basically, you want to leave the club, then you lose the benefits. The UK has chosen to leave the club. Its not on the EU if the UK loses the benefits of the clubs, that is a choice made by the UK.

solodeogloria wrote: »

It's true that the electorate gave her a mandate to stop being subject to EU legislation and to restrict immigration, but nobody on Britain's side has been advocating for curbing trade. That has only come from the EU.

Again, completely untrue. The mandate was to leave the EU, actually, as per the actual text of the question asked. Leave the EU you lose the benefits. The act of leaving the EU, results in trade barriers. The EU pointing out the reality of the situation doesn't mean they support it. In fact the EU wanted the UK to stay, but they chose not to. It will simply take a long time to negotiate a new deal, this is the reality of the situation. Again, a situation chosen by the UK and not the EU.

Trying to blame the EU on the UKs choice is an absurdity. The British electorate chose to leave, and that means they leave. You can't have your cake and eat it to. Your either in or out, and you chose out. Thats on the UK and no one else.

solodeogloria · 24-10-2016 06:15PM

Good evening!

I'm not trying to blame the EU for Britain's vote.

I'm saying that the only party that wants to raise trade barriers in this case is the EU. That's the truth. The EU can make it as hard or as soft as it likes.

The leave campaign was fought on taking back control and controlling immigration. You can quibble with that. It's what I saw on the ground too as I voted remain.

Edit: Can you quote Theresa May saying explicitly she wants a "hard Brexit"? The Guardian journalist saying something isnt the same.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

wes · 24-10-2016 06:21PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

I'm not trying to blame the EU for Britain's vote.

Certainly seems that way, as your blaming the consequences on the EU, of a UK decision. Again, your line of argument is imho highly disingenuous.

solodeogloria wrote: »

I'm saying that the only party that wants to raise trade barriers in this case is the EU. That's the truth. The EU can make it as hard or as soft as it likes.

No its not the truth. Again, Brexit is the cause of trade barriers, and decision taken by the UK and not the EU. The consequences of leaving the club is the fault of the UK, and not the EU. Also, talking about the consequences hardly makes them the EUs faults. A decision was made by the UK, the EU is talking about the reality of the decision. Whatever Brexiter fantasy Boris Johnson sold to the public is not the problem of the EU, but rather the UK.

Again, Brexit is Brexit, the words of your Prime Minister, and words that send a clear unambiguous message to the EU.

solodeogloria · 24-10-2016 06:28PM

Good evening!

I'm doing neither. I'm simply stating that the EU has the choice to decide how hard to make it for Britain. It's true that Britain is seeking a bespoke deal that will take it outside of the European Union and that will give it more control over immigration.

The EU can decide to arrange a free trade deal like Britain is asking for like it has nearly done with Canada and like it already has with South Korea. Both without asking for free movement into either country. The alternative is that it can force Britain to pay tariffs and vice versa. The EU can decide how hard it is.

I agree that Brexit is Brexit. There is however quite a lot to be discussed about what that constitutes.

From Britain's view it seems to mean two things. No legislation from Europe and control over immigration. Neither of which are unreasonable given the people's vote and precedent elsewhere.

The only one asking for barriers on trade is Brussels. Britain isn't asking for this.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Calina · 24-10-2016 06:34PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

I'm doing neither. I'm simply stating that the EU has the choice to decide how hard to make it for Britain. It's true that Britain is seeking a bespoke deal that will take it outside of the European Union and that will give it more control over immigration.

The EU can decide to arrange a free trade deal like Britain is asking for like it has nearly done with Canada and like it already has with South Korea. Both without asking for free movement into either country. The alternative is that it can force Britain to pay tariffs and vice versa. The EU can decide how hard it is.

I agree that Brexit is Brexit. There is however quite a lot to be discussed about what that constitutes.

From Britain's view it seems to mean two things. No legislation from Europe and control over immigration. Neither of which are unreasonable given the people's vote and precedent elsewhere.

The only one asking for barriers on trade is Brussels. Britain isn't asking for this.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

The time to decide what Brexit meant was before the referendum.

In the meantime most people would expect no cherry picking.

wes · 24-10-2016 06:35PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

I'm doing neither. I'm simply stating that the EU has the choice to decide how hard to make it for Britain. It's true that Britain is seeking a bespoke deal that will take it outside of the European Union and that will give it more control over immigration.

Once again untrue. The UK wants a special deal, which is simply unavailable. They can negotiate for the same deal as the US or Canada or any other non-EU member state. Again out is out, a choice made by the UK and not the EU.

solodeogloria wrote: »

The EU can decide to arrange a free trade deal like Britain is asking for like it has nearly done with Canada and like it already has with South Korea. Both without asking for free movement into either country. The alternative is that it can force Britain to pay tariffs and vice versa. The EU can decide how hard it is.

The UK doesn't want a deal like the US or Canada, they want to pick and choose EU membership benefits. A free trade deal has always been on the table. The reality is that due to the UK choice, this will take a long time to sort out. All these consequences are due to the UKs choice of Brexit.

Also, trade negotiations have 2 sides, so again it's all up the EU is plainly incorrect.

solodeogloria wrote: »

I agree that Brexit is Brexit. There is however quite a lot to be discussed about what that constitutes.

From Britain's view it seems to mean two things. No legislation from Europe and control over immigration. Neither of which are unreasonable given the people's vote and precedent elsewhere.

The only one asking for barriers on trade is Brussels. Britain isn't asking for this.

Yes, Britain is asking for trade barriers, it's a result of Brexit. The UK made a choice and now has to live with it like an adult and stop blaming the EU for there choices.

Again, you leave the EU you lose the benefits of being member. Blaming Brussels on your countries decision just shows the attitude the UK has , that its always the EUs fault.

solodeogloria · 24-10-2016 06:41PM

Calina wrote: »

The time to devidence what Brexit meant was before the referendum.

In the meantime most people would expect no cherry picking.

Good evening!

Last post for today.

I voted to remain and I made that case to people I know there. I also kind of voted selfishly for Ireland interests.

The vote has now come. It must be acted upon.

There was no way anyone knew what exact form Brexit would take. It involves a negotiation that lasts for at least two years. My point is that the EU is at a crossroads. It knows broadly what Britain wants. It can either play hard ball or soft ball. I suspect there will be some form of compromise. Migration however is a topic that needs to be dealt with. David Cameron asked for a light touch reform of migration in respect to Britain and this was a factor in the referendum and has been for some time.

I followed it closely both in the media and on the ground.

I always said Brexit was uncertain and that's what you see in the markets. That's why I voted to stay in the EU. But in another way it is hugely exciting. To define a new relationship with your closest partners and the wider world. Why not make the best of it?

The sky won't fall in.

wes: everything I've said is true. I understand you disagree with my opinion but May has never said she wants a hard Brexit or a soft Brexit but a bespoke deal.

I think what we'll end up with is a limited deal for services and more migration controls (maybe not all the UK wants but more than now). That's my bet. Then Britain can open up to the world at large.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Calina · 24-10-2016 06:47PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

Last post for today.

I voted to remain and I made that case to people I know there. I also kind of voted selfishly for Ireland interests.

The vote has now come. It must be acted upon.

There was no way anyone knew what exact form Brexit would take. It involves a negotiation that lasts for at least two years. My point is that the EU is at a crossroads. It knows broadly what Britain wants. It can either play hard ball or soft ball. I suspect there will be some form of compromise. Migration however is a topic that needs to be dealt with. David Cameron asked for a light touch reform of migration in respect to Britain and this was a factor in the referendum and has been for some time.

I followed it closely both in the media and on the ground.

I always said Brexit was uncertain and that's what you see in the markets. That's why I voted to stay in the EU. But in another way it is hugely exciting. To define a new relationship with your closest partners and the wider world. Why not make the best of it?

The sky won't fall in.

wes: everything I've said is true. I understand you disagree with my opinion but May has never said she wants a hard Brexit or a soft Brexit.

I think what we'll end up with is a limited deal for services and more migration controls (maybe not all the UK wants) but more than now. That's my bet. Then Britain can open up to the world at large.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Britain does not know what it wants except maybe all th good bits of EU members hip with non of the obligations.

Britain could already open up to the world. But it didn't. Not in the way Germany did.

May's actions point at out of the single market. By definition this is hard Brexit.

The Rape of Lucretia · 24-10-2016 07:17PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

I'm not trying to blame the EU for Britain's vote.

I'm saying that the only party that wants to raise trade barriers in this case is the EU. That's the truth. The EU can make it as hard or as soft as it likes.

The leave campaign was fought on taking back control and controlling immigration. You can quibble with that. It's what I saw on the ground too as I voted remain.

Edit: Can you quote Theresa May saying explicitly she wants a "hard Brexit"? The Guardian journalist saying something isnt the same.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Good evening.

Fratton Fred · 24-10-2016 07:29PM

wes wrote: »

Simply put, a lot of people in the EU, will be glad to see the back of Britain, after decades of Britain demanding opt outs, blaming all the problems on the EU, and constant smears and lies. At the end of the day, the British electorate made there choice, and there concerns are no longer the EUs.

could you back up this statement?

Capt'n Midnight · 24-10-2016 07:31PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

It knows broadly what Britain wants. It can either play hard ball or soft ball.

You want to block free movement of people ?

Hardball. Very, very hardball.

Most Eastern European countries are pretty much split down the middle over multiple issues. But even the ex-communists are pretty convinced that no matter what faults the EU has it's so much better than being in the Eastern Bloc.

One of the trump cards the Bresiteers had was that the German car industry depends on selling into the UK. Except the German car industry is more worried about the EU single market breaking up if the UK gets off Scott free. It's the threat of loosing some market share in the UK verses complete uncertainty in EU.

Capt'n Midnight · 24-10-2016 07:36PM

maryishere wrote: »

once it does, maybe it will, but currency fluctuations are nothing new. Many UK businesses are thriving because of the exchange rate. Once the UK government is not paying tens of billions to poor EU countries in handouts, it can invest that money in its own economy.

LOL

not even ONE Tens of Billions.

Some UK businesses are thriving, but only because they are paying their employees a lot less in real terms. Once warehouses have emptied and new imports have to be paid for at the new exchange rates it'll start to bite.

Anita Blow · 24-10-2016 07:43PM

VAT receipts are down and inflation on retail goods is up but actually UK businesses are 'thriving' because mary has a friend that said so and wants to believe it so its true

Anita Blow · 24-10-2016 07:44PM

Also the UK doesn't want to have its cake and eat it too. It simply wants a "bespoke deal". Doublespeak guys, you're gonna have to learn it for the 2 years of negotiations ahead.

RDM_83 again · 24-10-2016 07:46PM

Isn't it free movement of workers not people.
And the talk about Germany being open to Europe is disengenous.
Who had a brake on migration from the eastern ascension states? Who is now talking about withholding benefits for 5 years from non Germans (longer than anything Cameron suggested to great controversy).

Pkiernan · 24-10-2016 07:47PM

http://m.independent.ie/business/brexit/geldof-considers-an-irish-homecoming-to-escape-dangers-of-brexit-fallout-35153523.html

Bob Geldof considers an Irish homecoming to escape dangers of Brexit fallout

Brexit: The Last Stand (No name calling)

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