An amateur starts a thread

chompdown · 27-08-2016 1:31pm

Yes, I describe them as noise as I believe (and probably incorrectly!) that a long term top in the dollar has taken place with a double top at 100, while the Euro double bottomed at 1.06.

I believe that the big impact news events will be negative for the dollar (as that's what the charts have been predicting), and the likes of Fischer's comments are just noise in the sense that the path downwards for the dollar is already set.

You are right that there are a lot of these events coming up, and it should be a good rollercoaster ride. I just hope I am still strapped in when we get to the end of September.

chompdown · 27-08-2016 2:20pm

ixus wrote: »

You want to see a compressed chart ready for a major breakout, checkout the US 2yr or 10yr.

Fireworks coming sooner or later.

This is looking good for you, good shout!

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24tnx

chompdown · 29-08-2016 10:03am

The September deposit has been made (500€) and for the purposes of easy calculations, I have boosted the initial deposit from €973.14 to €1,000, so total deposit was €526.86

The market which has been deemed to have the most upside potential is oil, so I will be adding 0.5€ per point every day this week.

Bank 3 trade 1 executed:
Long US Crude 0.5€ per point @ 47.050

chompdown · 29-08-2016 9:41pm

The USD kissed the 50 day moving average and moved down today. Looks very nice on this chart

The 10 year treasury has given up almost all its gains from Friday. To use one of For Ever Odd's phrases, maybe the markets are smelling the "bullsh1t" from the Fed?!

chompdown · 30-08-2016 9:22pm

My enthusiasm from last night has left a bit off egg on my face today, after more strength in the dollar and weakness with oil today. Three bad days in a row now for both positions means the tidy sum of profits is being eaten away pretty sharpish. It is a funny game, as the decline came just as I got to my first target of 5k. Easy come, easy go indeed.

Fear not, the big line in the sand is the 200 DMA for the dollar and we are not there yet. I would however like my balance to recover somewhat before the FOMC on Friday as that should be a hairy moment given the recent big numbers. The trend is certainly not my friend in that respect.

I'm still sitting in the rollercoaster but can feel my buckle loosening!

Anyway, I still trust the cycles and still feel these Fischer remarks are just talk.

Edit to add:
Trades 2 & 3 of the new bank were executed today.
0.5€ per point at 46.305 & 47.115

chompdown · 31-08-2016 10:20pm

Another miserable day today! This time losses concentrated in oil, which dropped 3% after being weak all day and then a build in inventory knocked it lower. All this news, which I described as mere noise, is starting to get very loud

I've spoken a lot about the Dollar being in a new bear market and that it would not be able to recover its 200 DMA. Well, today it got relatively close and sold off. It may test it again, but I'm still confident that this strength in the dollar is short term, and it will fail to get above it.

However, it all boils down to Friday's job report, and with the balance of my account not looking so healthy, a good number could end this experiment... Cycles indicate the dollar will go lower from here, so my trust lies there!

iainBB · 31-08-2016 10:23pm

chompdown wrote: »

Another miserable day today! This time losses concentrated in oil, which dropped 3% after being weak all day and then a build in inventory knocked it lower. All this news, which I described as mere noise, is starting to get very loud

I've spoken a lot about the Dollar being in a new bear market and that it would not be able to recover its 200 DMA. Well, today it got relatively close and sold off. It may test it again, but I'm still confident that this strength in the dollar is short term, and it will fail to get above it.

However, it all boils down to Friday's job report, and with the balance of my account not looking so healthy, a good number could end this experiment... Cycles indicate the dollar will go lower from here, so my trust lies there!

What I'd the paid expert say?

Esel · 31-08-2016 10:34pm

iainBB wrote: »

What I'd the paid expert say?

It's in the post you quoted.

chompdown · 31-08-2016 10:42pm

Let's forget about the expert after what has been said on this thread.

ixus · 31-08-2016 11:39pm

If you are no longer using aforementioned guy for guidance, what are you basing trades on? I only ask because I think it's important you have a hard stop in place. It's easy to stomach losing money you made but never drew down (from experience). But, if your account turns negative, that's when trouble can start for a person psychologically.

RE oil: it was the noise from Opec that turned markets and they ramped into options expiry as shorts covered. Once options expired, market turned lower. Todays kick has been enhanced by the builds in crudes products, gasoline and distillate. The weekly draws have been small or builds lately. This is a problem because their inventory is building up to record levels. As refineries enter maintenance season, they will draw less crude so less demand. Fundamentals back in play.

If I was to make a suggestion, it would be to have a hard monetary stop in place. Forget about what you were up. If your stop gets hit, take a breather and review this whole period (do this anyway) and figure out what you have learned and need to learn. Don't be worried about maintaining appearances in this thread.

Markets are generally in a place where I would or could not make a call right now. It was month end today and volumes are the worst I have seen as a Trader. There might be volume on NFP for an hour or so depending on the figure but then all the US guys are off to the Hamptons for Labor Day weekend.

Worth keeping an eye on German regional elections over weekend. Merkels constituency and CDU in 3rd place at 20% on poll. Right wing AfD in 2nd at 23%.

For ever odd · 01-09-2016 9:53am

chompdown wrote: »

Another miserable day today! This time losses concentrated in oil, which dropped 3% after being weak all day and then a build in inventory knocked it lower. All this news, which I described as mere noise, is starting to get very loud

I've spoken a lot about the Dollar being in a new bear market and that it would not be able to recover its 200 DMA. Well, today it got relatively close and sold off. It may test it again, but I'm still confident that this strength in the dollar is short term, and it will fail to get above it.

However, it all boils down to Friday's job report, and with the balance of my account not looking so healthy, a good number could end this experiment... Cycles indicate the dollar will go lower from here, so my trust lies there!

We've all been there.

One cycle that happens over and over is in the link. The hard part is building yourself up enough to get through it.

~Trot the pony, whip the stallion.( My way of dealing with it)

https://optionalpha.com/the-14-stages-of-investor-emotions-and-trading-psychology-10433.html

chompdown · 01-09-2016 3:45pm

ixus wrote: »

If you are no longer using aforementioned guy for guidance, what are you basing trades on?

I am still using the guy for guidance but I didn't want to talk about him any more for the reasons you brought up earlier in the thread (which I agree with). I suppose there's less danger of this looking like recruitment now so maybe I can mention some of his thoughts.

In short, the size of the sell off in oil was a big surprise. There was a sell off due at some point this week (hence me gradually opening a position this week) but it was meant to be the lightest of all. Now, quite a lot of damage has been done to the chart, so lets see how long I will hold for. A bounce is certainly expected so lets see what happens after that.

It's easy to stomach losing money you made but never drew down (from experience). But, if your account turns negative, that's when trouble can start for a person psychologically.

Totally agree with this. I think this is especially true for me, but I hope that I have already in my own mind written these funds off. Friday will be the acid test of this.

If I was to make a suggestion, it would be to have a hard monetary stop in place. Forget about what you were up. If your stop gets hit, take a breather and review this whole period (do this anyway) and figure out what you have learned and need to learn. Don't be worried about maintaining appearances in this thread.

Again, sound advice, but I am going to stick to the original rules and let it ride. Stupid I know, but this account is for pure speculation and it won't be the end of the world if I get wiped out.

Prezatch · 01-09-2016 4:02pm

chompdown wrote: »

Stupid I know, but this account is for pure speculation and it won't be the end of the world if I get wiped out.

All the same, for anyone who has followed this thread through, it is an excellent example for demonstrating the euphoria of highs and the despondency of lows when it comes to investing. So kudos to you for sticking with it in such detail and I hope things start turning your way again. Man vs Chart... A psychological thriller!

chompdown · 02-09-2016 6:47am

Ok so the instruction to close the oil positions was given and defeat has been admitted. Two of my trades were executed at a loss overnight, and hopefully there's a continued recovery in oil prior to the jobs number where I can close some more.

Will post the finer details later.

For ever odd · 02-09-2016 8:10am

It's at long term support/ resistance level now.

chompdown · 02-09-2016 12:51pm

Any predictions on the effect of good / bad jobs numbers on oil?

Looks like I will be holding either 0.7€ or 0.8€ per point during the announcement, which could be good, bad or ugly!

chompdown · 02-09-2016 1:26pm

Ok a very quick post before the jobs numbers to confirm I have closed a total of 0.2 from the Dollar short, and 0.3 from the Oil long.

Balance at €2300, margin level 415%. Hopefully thats enough for me to weather the storm.

chompdown · 02-09-2016 1:33pm

The amateur has survived!

chompdown · 02-09-2016 3:05pm

Ok apologies for all the posts today, but now I have to add the recent trades which I had not posted here. I'll post some of my thought later...

September bank

Trade 1
Long US Crude 0.5€ per point @ 47.050
Still open

Trade 2
Long US Crude 0.5€ per point 46.305
Closed at 43.595 for a loss of €135.50

Trade 3
Long US Crude 0.5€ per point 47.115
Closed at 43.695 for a loss of €171.00

Trade 4
Long US Crude 0.5€ per point 46.135
Closed at 43.635 for a loss of €125.00

Trade 5
Long US Crude 0.5€ per point 46.065
Closed at 43.595 for a loss of €123.50

Total loss on September bank (with one 0.5€ position still open) = €555

August bank
No trades

July bank
Trade 4
Short US Dollar 0.2€ per point at 97.047
Closed at 95.712 for a profit of €267.00

New trades (to bring me back to 1.0€ per point post FOMC)
Short US Dollar 0.1€ per point at 95.500
Short US Dollar 0.1€ per point at 95.520

chompdown · 02-09-2016 10:15pm

What a messy few days. It was a bad call in oil (that happens) and some pretty serious strength in the dollar (all started by Fischer), despite a miss in the NFP.

Upon reflection, I am lucky to be still alive. I think without the thread I would have gone a bit mental with trades today. I did a lot wrong over this last two weeks, so I'm happy that I've not been wiped out.

My guy pulled the plug on the oil trade, so I did too. His first oil call was perfect, this one not, and the end result is back to square one.

The dollar trade is still playing out ok, but how on earth did the dollar rally today. Does anyone seriously believe the Fed will raise rates this month?

So with the oil positions closed this evening, I am left with a current balance of €2200 (profit of €200).

I now have one open position: 1.6€ per point short USD index @ 95.952

Basically back where I started!

I will not be making any more trades until next month, unless something miraculous happens, or I start to get margin calls ($97.0 area, which is above the 200DMA so I'm happy).

Hope nobody died out there today!

dasdog · 03-09-2016 10:59am

Glad to see you took the hit, it's painful but absolutely necessary. Aside from freeze rumours or a weakening dollar, there is no reason for a rise in the future price of oil. World is growth is anaemic at best hence the zero interest rate policy.

September is going to be volatile, all central banks are meeting, but focus is on the ECB/BoJ to expand QE/QQE and then there is the contradictory Fed. They might just be stupid enough to hike having not moved this time last year and being accused of moving too late last December.

chompdown · 03-09-2016 3:04pm

Week 7 update
Total deposits: €2000
Position 1: Short USDX (Sept) 1.6 @ 95.952

Current balance: €2204
Weekly change: - €1960

Total P/L: €204 / 10%

chompdown · 03-09-2016 3:14pm

dasdog wrote: »

Glad to see you took the hit, it's painful but absolutely necessary. Aside from freeze rumours or a weakening dollar, there is no reason for a rise in the future price of oil. World is growth is anaemic at best hence the zero interest rate policy.

September is going to be volatile, all central banks are meeting, but focus is on the ECB/BoJ to expand QE/QQE and then there is the contradictory Fed. They might just be stupid enough to hike having not moved this time last year and being accused of moving too late last December.

Oil was playing out perfectly with the drop going into Jackson Hole, and continued the initial sell off when Yellen was speaking, but then it turned upwards. This was the low that was expected and I was happy to hold through it.

But then the spanner in the works - the Fischer interview and a complete sell off, which formed a far more serious low and damaged the chart (in terms of cycles analysis that the guy uses). Anyway, I will try to forget that and move on.

I'm a little worried that I am into that dollar short a bit too deep, so if I do anything it will be to take some off the table. As a poster said here earlier, it's all about survival.

For ever odd · 03-09-2016 8:22pm

Hey chompdown...

A new cycle started about 10 days ago , it is usually fairly solid and is capable of turning out 1000s of points.

...Strong team around the corner (3 are in the zone now), if you're stuck.

chompdown · 03-09-2016 11:27pm

Slightly disconcerting. On the beers again?

For ever odd · 04-09-2016 10:29am

Nah...just checking if you were ready yet.

chompdown · 04-09-2016 12:00pm

I thought you were taking the p1ss out of me

For ever odd · 04-09-2016 12:37pm

Ok, didn't realise it came across that way (never can).
Why would I pull the piss out of you, when I was 10 times worse than you,when I started.
Relax.

chompdown · 04-09-2016 1:08pm

What market were you referring to?

chompdown · 06-09-2016 8:02pm

Today is a great example of why it is absolutely vital to stay alive during the bad days. A horrible ISM number and the Dollar is down 1%, which is very healthy for my balance.

The feeling of missing that kind of action because I had been wiped out a few days previously would have been very hard to take. I need to remember this and make sure I don't panic on the inevitable dark days!

Short term, it actually looks like the decision to close the long oil position was wrong, but the principles and rules behind it mean I am still glad that I did close it, and next time closing a losing position may turn out to be a big win.

Anyway, today was a good day, and it is a reminder that there will always be good days ahead even they feel very far away when things are dropping like they were last week.

1st serious lesson I have taken from this... Stay alive!

PS - I reduced my Dollar long exposure from 1.6 to 1.5 per point yesterday.

An amateur starts a thread

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