An amateur starts a thread

chompdown

Cheers Iain, and fair play for going short and buying back in yesterday. The lowest I could see silver going was just under 18.50 and seeing a 17 handle was a massive surprise, but it happens!

If the bottom is in for silver now, and if the more professional players are positioning for the expected move up then I may make it to the end of the month and this can continue, but that is looking very unlikely.

Thanks for your comments throughout the thread, was always good hearing from you.

ixus

Firstky, I just want to say, I understand the psychological battle you're going through right now. I do this every day and you can still have big highs and lows if you are not 100% algo/ programmable logic driven trading. I am mainly discretionary based upon what I know, my experience, understanding of markets and how I read a situation. I get it wrong often.

I would say to think about that 400 . You have control over the market to let it ride or take it back.

I would then suggest, if/when you do step back, to analyse what you did and how you could have improved. Then read the thread and make additional notes. Do this while it's fresh (in the next few days or at weekend) and use it before you get involved again. It could end up being a valuable albeit short term expensive lesson.

chompdown

Thanks ixus, greatcomments again. That's a great idea. Also, thanks for not turning the knife with an I-told-you-so post.

To be honest I am not feeling too bad. It was a slow burn lower yesterday and I could see the writing on the wall (but with that optimistic glimmer of hope that it would turn around in an instant, like the dollar did after ECB announcement).

I will try get time to read the whole thread today and make some notes, maybe post them here also.

chompdown

On a lighter and more positive note, after all my losses yesterday, I found a fiver on my way to work this morning. The irony of it!

ixus

Euromillions

For ever odd

I was thinking of you yesterday and.glad to hear you didn't add funds, it will stand to you.

I know this is not a great time, but when you're finished evaluating the thread, maybe consider a trade plan.... It cuts out the what will I do next syndrome.

All the best.

chompdown

Thanks odd. Yeah I didn't go crazy yesterday at all which is one positive I am taking from this. I took the punishment!

ixus great shout about the euro millions. Horrible value for money and I never play the lotto, but maybe today is a good day to try it

So my last throw of the dice is in. I have closed all Dollar positions and consolidated into long silver 10 points. Dead zone at $17.684.

iainBB

Silver and other metals have really been hit hard this week. So not look good for him.

But would like to hear.

chompdown

Hey Ian, nothing else to report. The bank was wiped out by the big drop in silver and strength of the dollar. Happy to report I didn't make any additional deposits trying to chase losses, and thankfully I didn't because the trend has just continued. Taking an extended break from this experiment!

drunkmonkey

Chomp if it helps any bit I took my funds out of the speadbetting and put in in real shares in degiro. It's a lot more boring and not even nearly as rewarding but with the spread betting you need to be on it like a hawk ready to react at any moment unless you can afford really large stop losses.
One small long on Oil could make it all back for you by december. It's addictive. Should have left some money in my sb account.

Andrea B.

Chompdown,
Thanks so much for sharing your exercise on this thread.
I imagine the losses will be negated by the lessons learned.

chompdown

I'm back for more punishment!

I took a couple of months out and avoided the big drop in gold/strength in Dollar after Trump's election but timed my re-entry pretty well.

Was debating whether or not to come back on here.

I am still down from when I started the thread but looking a lot healthier now. Here's a screenshot of my deposits.

Currently long Gold and short the Dollar.

iainBB

chompdown wrote: »

I'm back for more punishment!

I took a couple of months out and avoided the big drop in gold/strength in Dollar after Trump's election but timed my re-entry pretty well.

Was debating whether or not to come back on here.

I am still down from when I started the thread but looking a lot healthier now. Here's a screenshot of my deposits.

Currently long Gold and short the Dollar.

I am delighted that you're back in the game gold took a big hit recently I'm currently looking at it myself

chompdown

Thanks Ian. I am currently holding:

36 points long Gold @ 1167.2 and
0.5 points short Dollar @ 101.052

I have deposited €2,173 since the last update in this thread. (Total deposited: €4685)

I closed one position in December, short the dollar for a profit of approx. €350

Current balance: €4,247

My basis for getting back in remains the same as before, i.e. Gold is in the early phases of a bull market, and the dollar is heading down into an intermediate cycle low. Still following the same guy.

Have you any positions open?

iainBB

chompdown wrote: »

Thanks Ian. I am currently holding:

36 points long Gold @ 1167.2 and
0.5 points short Dollar @ 101.052

I have deposited €2,173 since the last update in this thread. (Total deposited: €4685)

I closed one position in December, short the dollar for a profit of approx. €350

Current balance: €4,247

My basis for getting back in remains the same as before, i.e. Gold is in the early phases of a bull market, and the dollar is heading down into an intermediate cycle low. Still following the same guy.

Have you any positions open?

Back in gold today look strong. I did not retract as I was expecting.

chompdown

Possibly a big moment as the USD drops below 100.0. Got a screenshot just as it happened Serious weakness today and a lot of dollar bills might be starting to get nervous

ixus

I think USD weakness is in play for a while as Trump appears to wage Trade Wars. It's hard to read how this all plays out. Markets are going to be reactionary to every tweet or soundbite in the near term .

It's all about the noise right now.

ixus

Treasury Sec talks down the dollar.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-23/usd-dumps-after-treasury-sec-nominee-mnuchin-warns-excessively-strong-dollar

For ever odd

Investors appreciate that a strong dollar can impact US growth through the net export component of GDP. The dollar's appreciation can push up the price of exports and lower the cost of imports. The St. Louis Fed took a look at how the strong dollar from 2014 to the beginning of 2016 impacted the net export function of GDP.

It is clear that a strong dollar in this period was associated with a drag on growth from net exports. Of the two-year period, the St. Louis Fed reviewed, trade contributed positively to growth in only one quarter.

The review found that the impact the strongest in the first half of the appreciation period reviewed. In the Q4 14 and Q1 15, net export took 1.14% and 1.65% respectively from GDP growth. As the dollar advance continued, the drag on net exports diminished. In Q4 15, net exports took 0.5% off GDP even though the dollar rose another 10%.

The St. Louis Fed took another step. This Great Graphic that they produced drills into the net export functions components, exports, and imports, to better understand how the rising dollar impact trade. The conclusion is that the dollar's appreciation impacts imports more than exports. The report found that the cumulative impact of imports was to shave GDP by 4.6%, while the cumulative impact of exports was actually slightly positive (0.85%).

The broad trade-weighted dollar index, tracked by the Federal Reserve, rose in seven of the last eight months of 2016.If the relationships do not change, the dollar's appreciation will likely weigh on GDP more through an increase in imports than the decline in exports.

http://www.marctomarket.com/?m=1

Howya chompdown, a little something as to why they are so worried about a strong dollar. Also would be a conflict of the new presidential policy.
Trump, Jellen and other power players are talking down the dollar, how they implement their wishes is where the money is to be made.
Couldn't help but notice that you have 27 positions open. Good to see ya back.

chompdown

Hey lads, yeah the big reversal upwards in the Dollar after Trump's win was a big surprise for me, and that was the inspiration for me to start thinking about getting back in again. He has clearly stated that he wants a weak dollar and his treasury-secretarty-to-be too (as you have both mentioned already). Still everyone was hugely bullish the dollar. It hit a 14 year high. Surely this time I have timed it correctly

Yeah, I have 27 positions open because I didn't buy all at once. It was the same approach as before... Buying little bits every day to get an average price.

I have an extra €800 left to add to the account and that is it. So my position sizes won't be getting much larger from here. Reading back on the thread, I was in way too deep. Even at the peak (€5,000) my margin level was less than 1000%, and now even with some strength back in the dollar this morning it is at 1500%.

Hopefully this can turn into a long term thread!

chompdown

After the strength in the stock market yesterday my guy closed his positions in gold. If they are managed markets and there's no real chance of them dropping significantly, other markets like gold will suffer.

I had just (an hour earlier) rolled my gold positions from Feb into April and was wary of getting hit with the spread again if I sold, so I decided to stay in. More weakness today but nice to see the Dollar still struggling around 100.0

My balance has dropped below €4k.

chompdown

Ok so it would have been a wise move to sell and buy back in as was advised but its easy to say that in hindsight. I'm not good or disciplined enough to buy and sell the little wiggles like that.

That said, the plan over the next week or so is to gradually reduce the gold position to 0 (or sooner if it gets to $1240) as a more significant fall is anticipated.

There should be about 8-10 days of price falls (hopefully after I have fully closed the position!) and then I will buy in again at oversold levels.

My balance is comfortably back above €4k.

I realise I sound very amateurish, and that is because I am!

BrokenArrows

chompdown wrote: »

Ok so it would have been a wise move to sell and buy back in as was advised but its easy to say that in hindsight. I'm not good or disciplined enough to buy and sell the little wiggles like that.

That said, the plan over the next week or so is to gradually reduce the gold position to 0 (or sooner if it gets to $1240) as a more significant fall is anticipated.

There should be about 8-10 days of price falls (hopefully after I have fully closed the position!) and then I will buy in again at oversold levels.

My balance is comfortably back above €4k.

I realise I sound very amateurish, and that is because I am!

Whats your reason to believe a bigger fall is ahead for gold?

chompdown

I do what I'm told but the reasoning behind it is based on cycles. I bought close to the current cycle low and the cycle should be coming to an end soon so gold and the euro are expected to drop over the course of about 5 to 8 days.

I'll be then buying back in for the next leg up.

I have been gradually trimming my gold position today. Now at 22 points from 36. Nice to bank some profits at these levels. I'll probably drop it down to about 10 points before the jobs report. Good to keep some exposure just in case I am completely wrong.

For ever odd

Have you done much research into 'cycles' for yourself? I mean, it's all well and good following a guy, but by now you must have some jist as to how and why he does what he does with his model.

It's a fairly common trait, that trader's are leaders rather than followers .

chompdown

Hey odd, yeah I can follow it for sure. It's not rocket science to be fair. It's mainly cycles and sentiment with technical analysis not the most important to his decision making.

I am fairly convinced that gold is in the early stages of a bull market so as long as I can keep disciplined, not go over leveraged and sit tight I think I will make quite a lot of money over the next few years.

chompdown

So far so good! I think I am happy to stay at these lower levels now and wait for a pullback before getting back in with full stakes. It may be a week or so until Gold and the Euro reach oversold levels again.

Nice to have the balance above 5k and a healthy margin level.

Taking profits in the earlier stages of this thread was something you guys advised but I didn't do. Hopefully I have learned from those mistakes. Cutting losses is also something I will need to learn at some point and that challenge will certainly come.

For ever odd

Of the 25 trading days this year gold has only had 4 daily closes below its weekly pivot point. The dollar has had only 1 daily close above it's weekly pivot point (only just, on the first trading day of the year ).

No harm in keeping an eye on the old pivots.

chompdown

Yes absolutely. It was a horrible month for the dollar. I think the worst January in nearly 30 years. The trend has to be down from here long term I think but potential for a little dead cat bounce this week maybe.

chompdown

Real nice strength in Gold today despite the strength in the Dollar. I have been closing mt position bit by bit on the way to 1240 which should be pretty strong resistence.

It remains to be seen if the drop last week was just a half cycle wiggle or if it actually was the drop that I am expecting in the near future. Obviously I am hoping for the former

Everybody on the goldbug forums is super confident and that has got to be a good sign to take a step back also.

Currently 3 points long Gold (from 36 points) and 0.1 points short the dollar (from 0.5 points)