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An amateur starts a thread

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  • Registered Users Posts: 460 ✭✭iainBB


    chompdown wrote: »
    Today is a great example of why it is absolutely vital to stay alive during the bad days. A horrible ISM number and the Dollar is down 1%, which is very healthy for my balance.

    The feeling of missing that kind of action because I had been wiped out a few days previously would have been very hard to take. I need to remember this and make sure I don't panic on the inevitable dark days!

    Short term, it actually looks like the decision to close the long oil position was wrong, but the principles and rules behind it mean I am still glad that I did close it, and next time closing a losing position may turn out to be a big win.

    Anyway, today was a good day, and it is a reminder that there will always be good days ahead even they feel very far away when things are dropping like they were last week.

    1st serious lesson I have taken from this... Stay alive!

    PS - I reduced my Dollar long exposure from 1.6 to 1.5 per point yesterday.

    Well done I heard the dollar news today and thought of you. Delighted for you. I still loved your oil entry point it was spot on.

    I am in silver today doing very well.


  • Registered Users Posts: 534 ✭✭✭chompdown


    Good stuff! I think you will do very well in that silver position. It actually held up pretty well last week considering.

    I can only imagine where the dollar and oil would be now if it wasn't for Fischer last week. Maybe they knew what is coming and they are trying to manage and stutter the inevitable fall in the dollar.

    The cycles say a waterfall for the dollar later this month or next and it's looking more and more likely. Defo no rate hike this month!


  • Registered Users Posts: 28,039 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    Did the dollar dropping cause the bounce in oil prices this evening, if it help any bit chomp it done away with all my profits and then some today.

    Shouldn't have went near it. Broke golden rule again.

    Hopefully some bounce with Apple tomorrow and still one short left open on oil.

    Closed out a nice little trade on Gazprom to get more money for oil, I think it's a share at a right buy price now. Winter is coming : )


  • Registered Users Posts: 534 ✭✭✭chompdown


    I am no man to be asking for advice but yes the likelihood of no rate increase (again) gave commodities the boost today. I don't generally follow these kind of news events as the I mentioned before, I feel they are just noise when it comes to long term cycles. Unfortunately I am highly leveraged so these things do and will continue to have a pretty big impact on my balance!

    Also, the fact that winter is coming is certainly priced into the Gazprom stock price.


  • Registered Users Posts: 534 ✭✭✭chompdown


    Potential bear flag forming in oil, so I won't be getting in there again until the future is clearer. Below $43 would be a good start.

    Silver is looking a bit more interesting, so a small position there may be the alternative. No need, and no rush so I will wait and see if there is a little pullback. Still content with having some on the sidelines.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,296 ✭✭✭FortySeven


    chompdown wrote: »
    Potential bear flag forming in oil, so I won't be getting in there again until the future is clearer. Below $43 would be a good start.

    Silver is looking a bit more interesting, so a small position there may be the alternative. No need, and no rush so I will wait and see if there is a little pullback. Still content with having some on the sidelines.

    Silver is a market that will take you to the cleaners fairly regularly. No news sell offs are rampant. Technicals are pointless. Pain can be excruciating.


  • Registered Users Posts: 534 ✭✭✭chompdown


    FortySeven wrote: »
    Silver is a market that will take you to the cleaners fairly regularly. No news sell offs are rampant. Technicals are pointless. Pain can be excruciating.

    Completely agree, but those massive sell offs for no reason that plagued the bear market seem to be (hopefully) a think of the past. Any position (if any) I open would be very small.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,296 ✭✭✭FortySeven


    chompdown wrote: »
    Completely agree, but those massive sell offs for no reason that plagued the bear market seem to be (hopefully) a think of the past. Any position (if any) I open would be very small.

    I got caught 5 years ago with a very small, no stop position. The mayday massacre as it came to be known. Tried to catch the knife after I got out. Haven't traded since. :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 534 ✭✭✭chompdown


    Nasty, that was some drop alright. Very fishy too! A stop probably wouldn't have helped, unless it was guaranteed. I hope you didn't lose more than your balance....


  • Registered Users Posts: 534 ✭✭✭chompdown


    I am now back fully invested.

    Bank 1 - 1000
    Short USD 1.0 per point

    Bank 2 - 500
    Short USD 0.5 per point

    Bank 3 - 500
    Long Silver 7.0 per point

    I added two trades today for that silver position:
    5.0 @ 19.959
    2.0 @ 19.852

    It's early in the Silver cycle so let's see if this plays out better than the last oil trade.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 534 ✭✭✭chompdown


    Jesus, what a week. First the highs of the miserable ISM data followed by the lows after yet another Fed member coming out to speak about the possibility of a rate increase in September. Everyone saw the reaction yesterday. The move in my account is playing out almost exactly like Fischer-gate the week before last, although the drop yesterday was a lot sharper. A continued sell off will put me under serious pressure.

    It seems like just when the market is pricing in no rate hike, and I go all in, another Fed member comes out to mess everything up.

    The other difference of note is that after Fischer spoke the drop in oil led to a my guy advising to close the position, but this time he says the precious metals positions should not be sold (yet anyway). He was quite emphatic about that and is 100% invested, so I have followed him again, and I'm now split 50:50 with dollar short, long silver.

    Monday is the final act in the Fed drama before the rate decision on Sept 21st, with 3 members speaking. Hopefully some dovish remarks are forthcoming, as my account balance could do with a bounce in the lead up to D Day!

    Here's the weekly update. I was on course for my best week yet until yesterday's drop. The move into silver was very risky, but I have to trust my guy!

    Week 8 update
    Total deposits: €2000
    Position 1: Short USDX (Sept) 1.0 @ 96.054
    Position 2: Long Silver (Dec) 14.0 @ 19.576


    Current balance: €2260
    Weekly change: €56 :D

    Total P/L: €260 / 13%


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,436 ✭✭✭ixus


    It was more than FED speak yesterday. ECB and other CB's are looking to pass the buck to governments to provide fiscal spending.

    The major trigger for me was the BoJ leak. They are looking at some sort of "twist" to their bond buying. Intensifying the front end while not supporting the long end of the curve as much (10 to 30yrs). This lead to the long end of US and Europe selling off in unison. The front end and USD moved accordingly.

    There's a shift in belief of the ability of CB's. Volatility was supressed for so long, it was bound to blowout.

    One thing I note is you are clinging onto a hope that we get dovish FED talk on Monday whereas the major talkers have been hawkish. The FED need to maintain what little credibility they have and should hold hawkish on Monday or they will be called a farce.


  • Registered Users Posts: 534 ✭✭✭chompdown


    You may very well be right with all that. It is above my pay grade so I won't disagree with any of it.

    Regarding the Fed's credibility, if the hawkish talk continues on Monday and they yet again fail to raise rates it will likely spark the major sell off in the dollar that I am waiting for as that credibility will be destroyed.

    One of the speakers on Monday is considered the most dovish of all the members so let's see what she has to say. The Fed Funds Futures still heavily favour no rate hike.

    Perhaps external event may happen that will give the Fed another excuse not to raise... "We were ready to raise rates but...."

    What are your thoughts on a rate hike this month?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,436 ✭✭✭ixus


    RE Fed funds rate. That's why i favour the BoJ angle.

    I honestly don't have an opinion of whether they will raise or not. I do note that markets are generally bad at pricing in downside risk until closer to event, then there's a little panic like yest. I think the BoJ in the middle of the night after FOMC is going to cause huge volatility the morning after in Europe.

    I'm the type of Trader who goes flat into these events and trades the volatility aggressively.


  • Registered Users Posts: 534 ✭✭✭chompdown


    Just a quick update to say I am alive and well despite the relative strength in the Dollar and weakness in silver these last few days. A very dovish appearance from Brainard only had a short term positive effect on my balance.

    We are now in a blackout period for the Fed, and I'm waiting for their decision. The probability for a rate rise is now only 15%. Some economic figures being released today so more bad news would be appreciated :)

    My €15 per point max position in silver per €1,000 is perhaps a little on the high side considering the potential and likely volatility so I will look to scale that back a tad if I can survive beyond the rate hike decision.

    Oil has been crazy volatile and I'm happy to see it now lower than at the price I closed my long position. Potentially will be looking to get back in there with the next deposit.


  • Registered Users Posts: 22,477 ✭✭✭✭Knex*


    Just stumbled upon this thread, and have enjoyed catching up on it. I'm absolutely a novice when it comes to trading, and haven't invested any money of my own yet, but reading this has been fascinating.

    Thanks for the thread, OP, and best of luck as you continue with it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 534 ✭✭✭chompdown


    Cheers man. I'm learning myself. I'm fairly confident in the trades, but not confident in my ability to stay disciplined and keep the stakes down and fear this will be my downfall!


  • Registered Users Posts: 100 ✭✭Conmc88


    What qualifications have you? you seem to me as if you have a vast knowledge of the markets as most of your posts are like double dutch to me


  • Registered Users Posts: 534 ✭✭✭chompdown


    Hi Conmc, I have basically no qualifications although I have been investing / trading small amounts (badly) for about 5 years, but I have a big interest in economics and I'm very familiar with the terminology. This is basically a hobby for me.

    I get my trading advice from a "guru" :) but I'm not taking it blindly.

    Ok so the morning economic news is out and its all bad. Initial sell-off in the dollar and came to post here to comment as to whether it would continue, but it already looks as though it will bounce back and silver is reversing too. Very frustrating.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 608 ✭✭✭For ever odd


    Google "triple witching".


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  • Registered Users Posts: 100 ✭✭Conmc88


    A Guru?.....hmmm so this guy/woman has doubled your money in the space of 6 weeks? and he or she is keeping them selves hidden??? hmmmmmmm.......


  • Registered Users Posts: 534 ✭✭✭chompdown


    Guru was tongue in cheek. You may have skipped a few pages. - the only reason my account has doubled is because I have doubled the intial deposit with more deposits :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 100 ✭✭Conmc88


    apologies:)


  • Registered Users Posts: 534 ✭✭✭chompdown


    In work but noticed a big move up in the dollar and drop in silver. Hanging in there and no panic yet! Starting to get used to these now after the big drop from €5k a couple of weeks ago. Would rather be getting used to big up days though. Lets see if I can survive.


  • Registered Users Posts: 534 ✭✭✭chompdown


    Going up 135% in a week is about the worst thing that could have happened to you. You now have a positive confirmation bias of a strategy that is flawed and I think there's a very good chance that you could end up losing your entire bank here. There's even a possibility that you could end up adding new money into the account to meet a margin call. Slippery, slippery slope.

    Very prophetic indeed. Today I have added the October deposit already today in September as my account takes a hammering. I won't be adding any new positions, but still a flagrant breaking of the rules.

    I strongly believe that there will be no rate rise on wednesday, and just want to make sure I stay alive until then. Hopefully I can accept defeat if I am proven wrong on Wednesday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,436 ✭✭✭ixus


    Here's the amateur psychology bit, you won't accept it because you have openly highlighted your failings on discipline and not corrected them yet.

    I don't want to know specific p&l but, is your trading postive, flat or negative? I think if your actual trading is negative to flat you should stop adding to the account. It can give you a false impression when you look at a balance. It's real money after all.

    Another thought, if you don't already have a mortgage and intend applying for one ever, underwriters raise red flags on high levels of activity from gambling/spread betting accounts.

    Finally, I think BoJ has potential for way more volatility next save for an actual rate rise which is not likely based upon all data and messaging from the FED.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,436 ✭✭✭ixus


    Some of this is worth a read on BoJ. I think they've made a mess on delivering leaks and shown a lot of indecision. It's possible they do nothing and wait. Carnage will ensue. Bond yields have broken range sharply.

    http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/16/if-youre-watching-the-fed-you-better-pay-attention-to-this-instead.html?_source=twitter


  • Registered Users Posts: 534 ✭✭✭chompdown


    Cheers for the link ixus and comments. Indeed it is a slippery slope and I'm worried what will happen next week. I have spoken a lot about the 200 DMA in the dollar a lot on this thread and last night it got there, but not beyond.

    This rally in the dollar is a lot different to the drop in oil earlier this month, in that my guy is still urging to hold the position and not get stopped out. This is why I have brought forward my next deposit by 2 weeks to beef up the account balance a little and to provide a buffer for next week's guaranteed volatility.

    I will post the updated figures later on today but in short I am now nursing a 900 loss! The account balance has been positive ever since the very minor drop in week 1, so this is new territory for me and will be interesting to see how I can handle it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,436 ✭✭✭ixus


    What a Trader usually does is reduce size when expecting greater volatility so as not to get taken out of the game. Should be viewed as a long term game.

    On the oil front, it's back to fundamentals. Libya and Nigeria coming back online plus a major issue in the East Coast of US. Colonial pipeline is out. Causes Rbob (gasoline) to go through roof as limited supply and crude through the floor as limited demand as the refiner can't refine and pass through the pipeline.

    http://abcnews.go.com/US/states-facing-gas-shortages-colonial-pipeline-spill/story?id=42153670


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  • Registered Users Posts: 28,039 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    Shouldn't touch oil as nearly cleaned out my little account, Apple pulled back most of my losses as went long a few weeks ago and it paid off yesterday. Probably worth shorting them monday. Hype around iPhone launch boosted them with pre orders sold out, story's are nonsense, there sold out as they didn't make enough of certain models and retarded stock, any other company would be lambasted for getting demand so wrong. Nothing more than a marketing trick that long past it's sell by date. There one good competitor away from doom.

    This week going to buy some, Macy's, Disney and VW. Hold Macy's until earnings and VW until after Paris motorshow.

    Oil, going to use a tiny amount with low leverage and hedge it, hoping to take profit at just below 46 on the way up and just above 41 on the way down. I still think it's going to keep swinging. Pretty confident ill get it wrong but going to be strick with my stop losses.

    Small bit or currency, thinking the yen and peso could be good for movement this week.


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