An amateur starts a thread

chompdown

Oil and the dollar sliced right through their trend lines with no resistance / support respectively.

I may need to get back into both 100% very soon, especially the dollar, as there could be an even sharper drop very soon. Thankfully still 70% in.

Oil is also performing remarkably well and also likely to continue this way for weeks rather than days. Could do with a pull back to get back involved. Only purchased 0.5 this morning (at 47.620).

I should not have tried to be smart and just bought fully back in, but these are things to learn from. I will however continue to try to wait for a pullback, which I already expected at 48.0!

chompdown

ixus wrote: »

No harm in staying flat while on holidays.

The OPEC talks are BS. Same stuff ramped markets earlier in year. They will do nothing. It's called jawbone.

The ramp was facilitated by option expiry in wti last night. Brent might tag the $50 but would expect some pair back. The Saudi's are actually pumping MORE while talking of freezes. And they ain't gonna play ball with Iran now that Iran are allowing Russia use their bases.

Any further bid is gonna come from weakening USD in light of FED comments.

It's all about Jackson Hole now.

As strange as it sounds, the signals to buy or sell are all based on cycles and sentiment rather than news. News is just noise and is almost always already priced in (with things like Brexit the exception to the rule). So, if you are reacting to comments from central banks or oil ministers you are one or two steps behind.

Cycles and sentiment will not always provide winning trades, but I haven't seen a better way yet.

ixus

The news/noise from OPEC & FED are what boosted your positions. Not technicals.

chompdown

Yes but you need to ask the question why I was in those positions before the news rather than after? Luck? Maybe / maybe not!

Esel

OP, are you posting your own wisdom here or copying and pasting from your advisor?

I'm a bit puzzled, unless you are a genuine, actual amateur in the original sense of the word (and if so, the thread puzzles me further).

chompdown

I'm not copying and pasting but it's not my own either. There was some issue with perceived promotion, which was totally understandable so I've decided to just comment about my positions generally rather than he says this and I say that...

chompdown

chompdown wrote: »

Oil is also performing remarkably well and also likely to continue this way for weeks rather than days. Could do with a pull back to get back involved. Only purchased 0.5 this morning (at 47.620).

I am now back to 2.0 per point in US Crude, now on the October contracts.

Long US Crude @ 0.5 @ 48.685
Long US Crude @ 1.0 @ 48.745

I also have re-entered the US Dollar position up to 0.9 per point. I was expecting support at 94.5 area but it fell straight through that and now believe that could act as a ceiling. Would have been better off just hoping on to those 0.2 positions but again a learning curve!

Short USD @ 94.392

chompdown

A little celebratory moment as the balance gets to over €5,000!

For ever odd

There was a lad called chompdown
Who made all his peers frown
He didn't like the Buck
Or really give a fcuk
And tucked five grand in his crown.

Francie Barrett

I am delighted you are making money, but I still think your trades are far too risky.

One of the seminal events of my short trading career was 9/11. Whole piles of traders on a forum I used to visit had long positions in oil in anticipation of a recovery. Once the planes hit, oil tanked and the bear market was brutal and unrelenting, down about 30% in a month. You could tell the traders who got wiped out because their "last signed in" date on their profile remained the same shortly after the carnage. I fear you are going the same way, you only need to be wrong once.

chompdown

Francie, you are absolutely right, any one day shock event could wipe me out almost instantly. But remember I have only 1500 of my own skin in the game here. It's less than a month's salary for most people and it's not going to have a massive effect on my life if I lose it.

That said, the disappointment of losing the whole bank could have a drastic effect of me depositing more and losing that too. That is a big worry for me and I feel this thread will help me avoid it. It has kept me very disciplined so far.

L'prof

chompdown wrote: »

Francie, you are absolutely right, any one day shock event could wipe me out almost instantly. But remember I have only 1500 of my own skin in the game here. It's less than a month's salary for most people and it's not going to have a massive effect on my life if I lose it.

That said, the disappointment of losing the whole bank could have a drastic effect of me depositing more and losing that too. That is a big worry for me and I feel this thread will help me avoid it. It has kept me very disciplined so far.

If you're worried about your bank, then maybe work in some sort of system where you withdraw a certain % of your profits? 10% of each trade maybe?

chompdown

I'm not too worried about my bank, but I said earlier in the thread that I would re-evaluate stakes / stops etc when I got to 5k so I will do that when I get back from holidays at the end of next week. Bank closed at 4999 this week

For ever odd

chompdown wrote: »

Francie, you are absolutely right, any one day shock event could wipe me out almost instantly. But remember I have only 1500 of my own skin in the game here. It's less than a month's salary for most people and it's not going to have a massive effect on my life if I lose it.

That said, the disappointment of losing the whole bank could have a drastic effect of me depositing more and losing that too. That is a big worry for me and I feel this thread will help me avoid it. It has kept me very disciplined so far.

You're looking at it all wrong; You have 4999 skin in the game. You protect it and don't let the market take it away.

chompdown

Week 5 update
Total deposits: €1473
Position 1: Short USDX (Sept) 0.9
Position 2: Long US Crude (Oct) 2.0

Current balance: €4999
Weekly change: + €1552

Total P/L: €3526 / 239%

chompdown

chompdown wrote: »

Week 5 update
Total deposits: €1473
Position 1: Short USDX (Sept) 0.9
Position 2: Long US Crude (Oct) 2.0

Current balance: €4999
Weekly change: + €1552

Total P/L: €3526 / 239%

Now with screenshot. There's one extra position not visible on screen but can't be ar5ed making and merging 2 screenshots

chompdown

I am now fully invested into both positions for the first time, after my two orders were filled today.

The dollar had a nice little bounce and sell off. It really is looking increasing likely that the dollar has entered a bear market. That will drive prices higher in oil, gold and the stock market.

Oil is down today as it takes a much needed breather but I don't think it will be long before it tests and breaks $50.

Details of both trades as follows:

Short USD 0.1 @ 94.769
Long US Crude 0.5 @ 47.855

chompdown

Should be an interesting day ahead for the dollar with Yellen speaking and also revised Q2 GDP numbers. The charts say that the dollar has not much chance of a rally, and more likely to drop. In September a very significant drop is expected, as traders realise that the Dollar is in fact now in a bear market.

Next week, I plan to add the September deposit, and get further exposure to a weakening dollar, but I'm not 100% sure yet through which market.

For ever odd

chompdown wrote: »

Should be an interesting day ahead for the dollar with Yellen speaking and also revised Q2 GDP numbers. The charts say that the dollar has not much chance of a rally, and more likely to drop. In September a very significant drop is expected, as traders realise that the Dollar is in fact now in a bear market.

Next week, I plan to add the September deposit, and get further exposure to a weakening dollar, but I'm not 100% sure yet through which market.

It seems as if the algo's have been switched off the last couple of days, I'd fully expect them to be switched back on later today - and take as many people out of the market as possible... Maybe a Flush out coming?

ixus

You want to see a compressed chart ready for a major breakout, checkout the US 2yr or 10yr.

Fireworks coming sooner or later.

chompdown

For ever odd wrote: »

It seems as if the algo's have been switched off the last couple of days, I'd fully expect them to be switched back on later today - and take as many people out of the market as possible... Maybe a Flush out coming?

Didn't really follow it but could see quite a lot of volatility with the dollar jumping, then falling and now basically back where it was. Those with tight stops probably the victims again.

chompdown

ixus wrote: »

You want to see a compressed chart ready for a major breakout, checkout the US 2yr or 10yr.

Fireworks coming sooner or later.

I would be more concerned about the double top at 100 if I were you. The Euro also has a nice double bottom.

For what it's worth, I would heavily advise against going long the dollar.

ixus

At 100 what asset are you talking about? I am watching 2yr test high yields (lose asset price value). If this breaks out, 10yr get smoked. I am talking bonds here. They go and USD goes strong bid, equities and commodities will get smashed.

That's how things play out IF 2yr breaks the way it is right now.

For ever odd

chompdown wrote: »

Didn't really follow it but could see quite a lot of volatility with the dollar jumping, then falling and now basically back where it was. Those with tight stops probably the victims again.

Don't you just love it when a plan comes together.
Enjoy the weekend.

chompdown

ixus wrote: »

At 100 what asset are you talking about? I am watching 2yr test high yields (lose asset price value). If this breaks out, 10yr get smoked. I am talking bonds here. They go and USD goes strong bid, equities and commodities will get smashed.

That's how things play out IF 2yr breaks the way it is right now.

Sorry, I read it quickly from my phone. I thought you were talking directly about the Dollar index!

For ever odd

chompdown wrote: »

Sorry, I read it quickly from my phone. I thought you were talking directly about the Dollar index!

Bullsh1t.

chompdown

For ever odd wrote: »

chompdown wrote: »

Sorry, I read it quickly from my phone. I thought you were talking directly about the Dollar index!

Bullsh1t.

What's your problem? A few too many beers tonight?

I am on holidays and read that he thought there was going to be a breakout in the dollar. I stand by all my comments, but didn't realise he was talking about bonds. I have no opinion on bonds.

A higher level of manners would be appreciated.

For ever odd

chompdown wrote: »

What's your problem? A few too many beers tonight?

I am on holidays and read that he thought there was going to be a breakout in the dollar. I stand by all my comments, but didn't realise he was talking about bonds. I have no opinion on bonds.

A higher level of manners would be appreciated.

I stand by all my comments too.

http://www.mssresearch.org/?q=Manners_Behavior_Character_Personality_Individuality

chompdown

Moving swiftly on....

I am now home from my holiday and have a lot of reading to do. This week was my worst yet after Fischer's comments on CNBC got a major over reaction from the market with the Dollar getting heavily bought. That meant I gave up basically all of last week's gains, and I'm now sitting on a balance of €3639. Easy come, easy go!

The dollar is still sitting nicely below it's 200 DMA so no panic yet.

Here are the numbers:

Week 6 update

Bank 1
Balance: €2181
Short USDX (Sept) 1.0 @ 96.362
Zero balance at: $98.543

Bank 2
Balance: €1458
Long US Crude (Oct) 2.5 @ 48.330
Zero balance at: $42.498

Total balance: €3639
Total profit: €2166 (147%)

ixus

The way I see it, you've taken positions base upon technical or other guidance. Events, or noise, like Non Farm Payrolls (NFP),and Opec comments have initally gone with your position. Yesterday, Fischer, who purposefully delivered a message post Yellen sent price action against your position.

There are some major events coming in the next few weeks. NFP, ECB, BoJ, this BS Opec meet and FOMC at month end.

A strong NFP boxes in the FED and ECB inflation projections Thurs week could be a big deal.

I expect the market to be nervous as each one of these events approach.