An amateur starts a thread

ixus

It's buy Apple sell Samsung spread. Not just the new phone hype but the damage done to Samsung on its exploding phone.

+10/12% on wk v - 4/5%

drunkmonkey

ixus wrote: »

It's buy Apple sell Samsung spread. Not just the new phone hype but the damage done to Samsung on its exploding phone.

+10/12% on wk v - 4/5%

Apple have weathered a few battery problems themselves usually by ignoring them. Do you think there's another 10% left to go in the short term? Samsung are usually pretty good but all their eggs aren't dependent on one product like Apple.
Samsung might be worth a buy and hold. One of the other manufacturers needs to do something special to top the iPhone but don't see it happening any time soon. The new chip Apple chip in the iPhone 7 is meant to be crushing intel chips in benchmarks. I wouldn't write Apple off but for a short trade I think they'll dip this week a little bit maybe back to early September price, will go up in the long term.
Intel will be under a bit of pressure from Apple.

I need to open another spread bet account somewhere with access to more markets and shares then etoro, any recommendations? Make a good few trades daily when concentrating so somewhere with small fees for overnight holds etc.

chompdown

Getting back on topic...

Week 9 update
Total deposits: €2500
Position 1: Short USDX (Sept) 1.0 @ 96.174 (December)
Position 2: Long Silver (Dec) 15.0 @ 19.533 (December)


Current balance: €1597
Weekly change: -€1163

Total P/L: €903 / -36%

---

So another terrible week as the dollar refuses to drop. Short term aim is pure survival with as big a position as possible until early Wednesday. I may reduce or be forced to reduce before then. Then the fireworks start.

Let's see if the dollar bulls can get it above the 200 DMA.

Wish me luck!

drunkmonkey

ixus wrote: »

It's buy Apple sell Samsung spread. Not just the new phone hype but the damage done to Samsung on its exploding phone.

+10/12% on wk v - 4/5%

Mmm.... what's that hissing https://www.cnet.com/news/iphone-7-owners-their-phones-hissing-fits/

chompdown

Getting back on topic again... A very nice start to the week so far. Today there was a shout to get back into crude, but I'm gonna let that trade pass me by. I am still way too leveraged in the Dolar and Silver positions with this weak account balance.

chompdown

Ok so with an extremely important day ahead tomorrow I'm glad to report that the account has recovered somewhat beforehand. The loss of 903 has been reduced to 184, meaning I have a balance of 2316 that the BOJ and Fed can sink their teeth into.

My position sizes remain the same. The guy closed the oil trade already today at a loss and is close to throwing in the towel and admitting defeat in that market.

ixus

BoJ is tonight. No set time, usually around 4am with presser around 7.

chompdown

So one hurdle has been overcome relatively unscathed. Big move to the downside then upside in silver which is nice but the Dollar has now moved above its 200 DMA which is not so nice!

Hope you made some money on those moves ixus

drunkmonkey

Chomp who's your account with finding the buy and sell price a bit large in etoro can be 13+ in the price difference with each, a small 30 bet can send you 4 negative straight away..?

Macy's, Pepsi & Google all doing well for me after today.

I think Macy's is one to consider getting into while cheap before earnings report.

chompdown

What an interesting day that was yesterday! Since I started this thread, it seems like before the start of every big move upwards there is a relatively sharp drop. Yesterday morning was no different, as the BOJ released their latest proposals. The Dollar index spiked to $96.29, comfortably above the 200 DMA, and Silver dropped to $19.10. I'm sure many were stopped out of their positions.

The Dollar could only stay above that key point for three hours and then steadily declined throughout the day, and then even futher after the Fed failed to raise rates. All that talk from Fischer about two rate hikes being possible was indeed a load of sh1te as I expected. The Fed's credibility must be really taking a hit now.

The start of Yellen's press conference saw a rebound in the Dollar and drop in silver as she tried to be hawkish. It really is such a dog and pony show. Why is there a team of people in charge of setting interest rates and having such a massive effect on the world economy? If I had the chance to ask Yellen a question it would be "Do you believe in central planning?".

Anyway, the moves in the market from Yellen's comments quickly faded and here I am today with a healthy looking balance again. I remain fuly positioned short the dollar and long silver.

The "guru" opened up the oil position again yesterday prior to the FOMC announcement, but again I am giving that a miss. These two positions are more than enough for me right now. He also believes there's gonna be a big breakout in the Nasdaq before the end of the year.

The current target for closing these positions is somewhere around the October jobs report, so hopefully I won't need to trade anything before then.

Drunkmonkey - I'm using LCG (London Capital Group). The only reason I picked them is because they accept Skrill and I had a few quid in there. Their platform isn't anything amazing. There's no funding costs in these futures positions which is nice. Maybe that's the case with other spread betting firms also, I haven't done a lot of research.

chompdown

This experiment is 10 weeks old now and to be still in the game is a big surprise for me. I have largely stayed true to the rules, although adding the October deposit in mid September was bad and is a worry. I don't want to get into that position again.

It's interesting how the mind works. On big down days its hard for me to walk away and stop checking the charts and with one red bar after another, they look like they will never recover. On the up days it's almost like a guilty pleasure and I feel like not checking the charts so as not to jinx them. I feel as time goes on and hopefully as my balance increases and the relative leverage is reduced, there will be far less hairy moments, and I won't feel the need to check the prices as often.

Oil all over the place again and my guy says he is out and done with that market for the time being. Glad I didn't get involved.

Week 10 update
Total deposits: €2500
Position 1: Short USDX (Sept) 1.0 @ 96.174 (December)
Position 2: Long Silver (Dec) 15.0 @ 19.533 (December)

Current balance: €3507
Weekly change: +€1910

Total P/L: +€1007 / +40%

I think that's my best week so far

chompdown

The dollar is already overdue its cycle low and could start to drop today and continue towards the job report on Friday of next week.

So just like when I started this thread I am going to gradually buy into a position of 0.5 short the dollar with the October balance, starting today.

OCT Trade 1.
0.1 per point short USD @ 95.472

ixus

There's fear out there with Deutsche Bank. USD is in demand near term. German bank holiday Monday and it's end of Quarter today. There will be lots of rebalancing of portfolios etc.

chompdown

You may well be right about USD demand but DB is down about 12% this week and the dollar index is basically flat and has tried many times to get above the DMA50 without success.

If one believes in market cycles, the dollar needs to make a low either next week or the week after, and that's what I am betting on.

chompdown

Oct Trade 2
0.1 per point short USD @ 95.667

For ever odd

Keep the head lad, remember about Staying alive.

If it moves in your favour, you might want to consider reducing exposure.... It could be one of those weekends.

All the best.

chompdown

Cheers odd. Yep, no more buys today.

chompdown

Week 11 update
Total deposits: €2500
Position 1: Short USDX 1.2 @ 95.237 (December)
Position 2: Long Silver 15.0 @ 19.533 (December)

Current balance: €2856
Weekly change: -€651

Total P/L: +€356 / +14%

Another interesting week has passed, with my balance taking a bit of a hit but still green. Both silver and the dollar were up and down all week, especially today.

Just as the dollar started to finally reflect the Deutsch Bank fear (as ixus was warning about), it got up close to the 200 DMA again and yet again dropped fast from there. That has happened 4 times since August. Surely the dollar bulls are starting to lose confidence now.

The catalyst seems to have been news that DB will come to an agreement with the USDOJ. The two trades from this morning are both green.

It's Friday, and I'm already looking forward to next week's action!

PS. I noticed that I never updated my average price in the Dollar position after moving from Sept to December futures contracts, and the number above is now up to date.

chompdown

A little plan of action for next week. It's possible (and likely) that gold will drop below its September low and bring in technical traders who will sell into it or go short. At that point there will a strong reversal which will be the start of the new move higher in gold.

Now I don't have any exposure to gold, but silver will almost always follow it, so I have a plan to sell 5 points (33%) of my long silver position on Sunday night / Monday morning with a view to getting back in at a lower price later in the week.

If the prediction is wrong and silver goes higher than I will accept that and buy back in.

My plan to add another 0.3 points to the Dollar short position is on hold.

The jobs numbers for September are released on Friday so I am waiting to see if I should hold all positions or reduce before then.

iainBB

chompdown wrote: »

A little plan of action for next week. It's possible (and likely) that gold will drop below its September low and bring in technical traders who will sell into it or go short. At that point there will a strong reversal which will be the start of the new move higher in gold.

Now I don't have any exposure to gold, but silver will almost always follow it, so I have a plan to sell 5 points (33%) of my long silver position on Sunday night / Monday morning with a view to getting back in at a lower price later in the week.

If the prediction is wrong and silver goes higher than I will accept that and buy back in.

My plan to add another 0.3 points to the Dollar short position is on hold.

The jobs numbers for September are released on Friday so I am waiting to see if I should hold all positions or reduce before then.

Gold may drop below that September support, it's tried a few times to do so, was watching it my self. Silver has run of of stram recently.

chompdown

Ok, so I sold 5 points of the silver position, 2.0 @ 19.100 and 3.0 @ 19.192. Silver has already risen above those levels.

It did have a sharp drop overnight but only down to around 19.05.

Let's see how it performs over the next hours / days and see if I get back in.

chompdown

Starting to play out as expected. Silver down 1.5%

The dollar is up on good US data but I expect the gains to be reversed again today.

ixus

Frim my point of view (and to give you and alternative look at USD), the daily trend since Aug says this gets stronger. Add into cable weakness on Brexit news, euro weakness on bank concerns and the Geo political situation between Russia and US (which is most significant perhaps).

All compelling reasons for stronger USD. Worth keeping in mind as if it does break stronger, it could really go.

chompdown

You might be right ixus, it looks like the end is nigh!

chompdown

I was warned on Saturday that this may happen - a sharp drop in precious metals (to be followed by a big jump). The extent of the drop in silver is bigger than expected, and the rise in the dollar also more pronounced.

If it can close above the DMA200 then it could be game over for me quite soon. Looks like we may be seeing at least a pause in the big moves now, and hopefully we get a reversal just like the last time it got above the 200. Lets see what happens when the US markets open.

I cannot see the Obama administration allowing any spillover from Deutsch Bank effecting the US markets pre-election so I would not be surprised if there will in fact be a deal with the DOJ, as was earlier announced and then dismissed.

chompdown

ixus wrote: »

Frim my point of view (and to give you and alternative look at USD), the daily trend since Aug says this gets stronger. Add into cable weakness on Brexit news, euro weakness on bank concerns and the Geo political situation between Russia and US (which is most significant perhaps).

All compelling reasons for stronger USD. Worth keeping in mind as if it does break stronger, it could really go.

Just to add (and for the interest of future reference) the USD index price at the time of your post was approx 96.05, and the current price is 96.15.

The reason I'm posting that is because when I opened my first oil position here I got a similar type of post from another boardsie saying it would go the opposite direction, and that marked the bottom in oil.

So it was a good contrarian indicator. Hopefully the same here (no disrespect intended).

ixus

Just when fx was getting going:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-04/ecb-said-to-build-tapering-consensus-as-qe-decision-time-nears-itvni14p

Did you leak it?!

chompdown

Well that was a horrible day and it looks as though this experiment is over and my bank is done for.

Silver dropping over 5% was the real killer. I got margin calls all the way down but somehow still have some positions open and a little bit of cash left.

I'm still short the dollar 0.3 per point and long silver 9 points. My balance is 400 but that will probably be gone by the end of today.

The good news at least is that I didn't deposit anything else.

Let's see if I can survive till the end of the month. The dollar is at 96.0 and silver hovering just below 18.0.

This may end up being the last post. Hope people enjoyed the rise and fall and could learn a few lessons from this!

iainBB

chompdown wrote: »

Well that was a horrible day and it looks as though this experiment is over and my bank is done for.

Silver dropping over 5% was the real killer. I got margin calls all the way down but somehow still have some positions open and a little bit of cash left.

I'm still short the dollar 0.3 per point and long silver 9 points. My balance is 400 but that will probably be gone by the end of today.

The good news at least is that I didn't deposit anything else.

Let's see if I can survive till the end of the month. The dollar is at 96.0 and silver hovering just below 18.0.

This may end up being the last post. Hope people enjoyed the rise and fall and could learn a few lessons from this!

Well done, you went high risk high return. You got the dip prediction in metal right yesterday. I was expecting you sell or short and buy back in. I did. Made a packet.


I suppose the aim of the game is to stay afloat, perhaps try a low risk low return next time. Long term success does not have magic men gurus and high risk position that are leverage to the hilt.

I think it's a product of our culture now to want everything right away with no waiting.

I loved your post. But with leveraging you need to be lucky most of the time.

ixus

Apologies, i thought you were short silver for some reason. Was focussing on fx position. In previous comment. That article accelerated the metals sell off.