July 2016 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 28-06-2016 4:10am #1

1. Predict the IMT (Irish mean temperature, an average for five stations, Casement, Claremorris, Mullingar, Oak Park and Shannon). The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 15.3 C.

2. Predict the MAX, the highest daily maximum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

3. Predict the MIN, the lowest daily minimum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

4. Predict the PRC, the average rainfall expressed as percentage of normal at the eleven stations we normally use, which include the five mentioned for IMT and also Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Malin Head, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia.

5. Predict the SUN, the total sunshine expressed as a percentage of normal at the six stations used (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia).

6. For a BONUS question, predict the highest minimum temperature of the month and the date. In case anyone needs further instructions, a high minimum equates to a warm overnight low reading, backed up by further warmth before midnight the following night. An average value for this is set at 17.5 C.

Enter by the deadline of 0300h on Friday 1st of July, or take the slight penalties that are assigned on first, increasing on second.

Good luck !!

pauldry · 28-06-2016 9:29am

Pauldry __________ 14.7 _ 23.0_ 4.9 _ 180_ 88 _ 16.8 July 31st

sryanbruen · 28-06-2016 12:47pm

sryanbruen __________ 16.5 _ 27.0_ 3.9 _ 75_ 110 _ 18.9 July 23rd

sryanbruen · 28-06-2016 12:57pm

pauldry wrote: »

Pauldry __________ 14.7 _ 23.0_ 4.9 _ 180_ 88 _ 16.8 July 31st

I'm doin' the exact opposite as you :cool:.

Bsal · 28-06-2016 2:43pm

Bsal __________ 15.0 _ 23.8_ 4.0 _ 140_ 90 _ 16.0 July 13th

sunflower3 · 29-06-2016 7:26pm

Sunflower3.....15.9.....25.5.....4.9.....105......110.......16.1.....21st....

200motels · 29-06-2016 11:04pm

200motels

14.6 _ 27.0_ 5.9 _ 102_ 106 _ 16.6 July 23rd
__________________

pauldry · 30-06-2016 9:58am

sryanbruen wrote: »

I'm doin' the exact opposite as you :cool:.

I hope youre right!

rameire · 30-06-2016 3:47pm

rameire __________ 15.1 _ 24.8_ 3.3 _ 125_ 88 _ 16.3 July 9th

sryanbruen · 30-06-2016 4:00pm

pauldry wrote: »

I hope youre right!

So do I. I don't want a double cold July like 2011 and 2012.

sryanbruen · 30-06-2016 5:40pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

sryanbruen __________ 16.5 _ 27.0_ 3.9 _ 75_ 110 _ 18.9 July 23rd

EDIT: sryanbruen___________ 15.0 _ 25.0 _ 105 _ 101 _ 16.9 July 23rd

kindredspirit · 30-06-2016 7:38pm

Kindred Spirit......15.3......27.0........4.0.......104........95.....17.0 22nd of July.

sryanbruen · 30-06-2016 7:55pm

mrskinner wrote: »

Skinner"...........17.........29...........2............155............43.......12.3belmullet

'Em are you from Spain :eek:?

DOCARCH · 30-06-2016 9:06pm

DOCARCH __________ 14.9 _ 25.6_ 4.7 _ 124_ 92 _ 16.8 July 21st

M.T. Cranium · 30-06-2016 9:28pm

MTC _____ 14.8 _ 25.5 _ 3.8 _ 160 _ 080 _ 17.1 30th

jd · 30-06-2016 9:36pm

JD __________ 15.8 _ 27.2_ 3.9 _ 125_92 _ 17.2 July 29

Lumi · 30-06-2016 10:57pm

Lumi _____ 15.0 _ 25.0 _ 3.7 _ 152 _ 085 _ 16.7 29th

mrskinner · 01-07-2016 12:08am

Skinner: ........... 14.9......24.9.......4.5.......111.......92........15.8@July16

waterways · 01-07-2016 12:09am

waterways......15.0......27.3........3.9.......119........101.....16.8 16nd of July. can we have a BBQ then together with M.T.?

dacogawa · 01-07-2016 12:09am

Dacogawa __________ 16.1 _ 28.1_ 3.9 _ 155_ 80 _ 16.9 July 24th

Tae laidir · 01-07-2016 12:10am

Tae laidir__________ 14.6 _ 25.0_ 4.0 _ 135 _ 94 _ 16.8 July 29th

Joe Public · 01-07-2016 12:36am

Joe Public __________ 15.1 _ 24.9_ 3.9 _ 109_ 99 _ 18.9 July 22nd

John mac · 01-07-2016 8:47am

john mac __________ 15.0 _ 26.0_ 6.9 _ 110_ 103 _ 14.8__ 27

Jpmarn · 01-07-2016 9:46am

Jpmarn __________ 14.5_ 24.5_ 4.5 _ 130_ 80_ 14.8 July 26th.

dasa29 · 01-07-2016 3:16pm

Dasa29 __________ 14.5 _ 24.0_ 3.5 _115 _ 95 _ 16.0 July 16nd

Rikand · 01-07-2016 3:25pm

I did it again

Rikand _____ 16.0 ___ 26.0 ____ 3.0 _____ 110 _____ 100 ____ 18.0 31st July

JCX BXC · 01-07-2016 4:24pm

Rikand wrote: »

I did it again

Rikand _____ 16.0 ___ 26.0 ____ 3.0 _____ 110 _____ 100 ____ 18.0 31st July

Yep same, I'm on holidays and didn't even notice the thread!

Carnacalla _____ 14.1_ 23.2 _ 3.6 _ 145 _ 100 _ 17.4 29th

sryanbruen · 01-07-2016 4:26pm

Carnacalla wrote: »

Yep same, I'm on holidays and didn't even notice the thread!

Carnacalla _____ 14.1_ 23.2 _ 3.6 _ 145 _ 100 _ 17.4 29th

I hope you're wrong! I don't want a July like last year 'til like, NEVER.

M.T. Cranium · 02-07-2016 2:12am

Here's a list of the forecasts received so far, I am going to be away from the internet for about four days starting "today" so, if we get some more late entries, I may need to post a larger table. For that reason I won't establish Con Sensus numbers until then.

As to the b.b.q. question, not this year sadly won't be able to travel out of my own time zone, maybe one of these years ...

FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ High Min, date

Dacogawa _____________ 16.1 _ 28.1 _ 3.9 _ 155 _ 080 ___ 16.9 _ 24
Rikand _______ (-2) _____16.0 _ 26.0 _ 3.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 18.0 _ 31
Sunflower3 ____________ 15.9 _ 25.5 _ 4.9 _ 105 _ 110 ___ 16.1 _ 21
JD ___________________ 15.8 _ 27.2 _ 3.9 _ 125 _ 092 ___ 17.2 _ 29
Kindred Spirit __________ 15.3 _ 27.0 _ 4.0 _ 104 _ 095 ___ 17.0 _ 22

Norma L _______________15.3 _ 27.0 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 16.5 _ **

Joe Public ______________15.1 _ 24.9 _ 3.9 _ 109 _ 099 ___ 18.9 _ 22
rameire _______________ 15.1 _ 24.8 _ 3.3 _ 125 _ 088 ___ 16.3 _ 09
waterways _____________ 15.0 _ 27.3 _ 3.9 _ 119 _ 101 ___ 16.8 _ 16
John mac _____ (-1) _____15.0 _ 26.0 _ 6.9 _ 110 _ 103 ___ 14.8 _ 27
sryanbruen ____________ 15.0 _ 25.0 _ 3.9 _ 105 _ 101 ___ 16.9 _ 23
Lumi __________________15.0 _ 25.0 _ 3.7 _ 152 _ 085 ___ 16.7 _ 29
Bsal __________________ 15.0 _ 23.8 _ 4.0 _ 140 _ 090 ___ 16.0 _ 13
DOCARCH _____________ 14.9 _ 25.6 _ 4.7 _ 124 _ 092 ___ 16.8 _ 21
MrSkinner _____________ 14.9 _ 24.9 _ 4.5 _ 111 _ 092 ___ 15.8 _ 16
M.T. Cranium ___________14.8 _ 25.5 _ 3.8 _ 160 _ 080 ___ 17.1 _ 30
Pauldry _______________ 14.7 _ 23.0 _ 4.9 _ 180 _ 088 ___ 16.8 _ 31
200motels _____________ 14.6 _ 27.0 _ 5.9 _ 102 _ 106 ___ 16.6 _ 23
Tae laidir_______________14.6 _ 25.0 _ 4.0 _ 135 _ 094 ___ 16.8 _ 29
Jpmarn ______ (-1) _____ 14.5 _ 24.5 _ 4.5 _ 130 _ 080 ___ 14.8 _ 26
Dasa29 ______ (-2) _____ 14.5 _ 24.0 _ 3.5 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 16.0 _ 16
Carnacalla ____ (-2) _____14.1 _ 23.2 _ 3.6 _ 145 _ 100 ___ 17.4 _ 29
_________________________________________________________

** NormaL will get zero points if date is 1st-15th, one point if 16th-24th and max of two points if 25th-31st. I estimated the value of 16.5 from forecasting experience but I'm open to changing that if anyone has strong opinions about what an average July high minimum might be.

Joe Public · 02-07-2016 11:45am

Con got away with it for long enough but I feel Norma should be subjected to penalty points for a late entry. Come on, fair is fair and rules are rules

Jpmarn · 03-07-2016 4:47pm

Joe Public wrote: »

Con got away with it for long enough but I feel Norma should be subjected to penalty points for a late entry. Come on, fair is fair and rules are rules

Norma L is not a person. The figures are average means for the month over a 30 year period 1981 to 2010. Also ConSensus is not a person. The figures will be the average over all the guesses. M.T. will be calculating these figures when he gets back to his computer on Tuesday. For average temperature this month the Consensus look like it will about 15.0c about 0.3c below Normal.

July 2016 Boards forecast contest

Comments