July 2016 Boards forecast contest

sryanbruen

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

After four weeks ...

IMT now at 15.5 with the week at 15.7 (0.1 above normal). Should finish around 15.4.

PRC continues to run 98% of normal, the week being 97%. Not much rain expected, perhaps 95% to finish.

SUN back down to 82% as the week was quite dull (60% of normal). Should limp in at about 80%.

No changes noted for MAX, MIN or high min (bonus).

Well I did horrible this month :P

M.T. Cranium

You did okay ... For general interest, these are the provisional scores based on the values recorded and expected at end of month. The August contest thread is open and pinned at top of menu.


Provisional scores for July 2016


FORECASTER ___________IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ Bonus (8,2) ___ TOTALS

Dacogawa _____________ 18 _ 18*_ 11 _ 00 _ 10 ___ 08 _ 01 _______ 66
Rikand _______ (-2) _____19 _ 14*_ 02 _ 10 _ 06 ___ 04 _ 00 __ 55-2=53
Sunflower3 ____________ 20 _ 12*_ 19 _ 12 _ 04 ___ 05 _ 02 _______ 74
JD ___________________ 21 _ 16*_ 11 _ 05 _ 08 ___ 06 _ 00 _______ 67
Kindred Spirit __________ 24 _ 15*_ 12 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 07 _ 01 _______ 78

Norma L _______________24 _ 15*_ 07 _ 13 _ 06 ___ 07 _ 01 _______ 73

Joe Public ______________22 _ 10*_ 11 _ 10 _ 06 ___ 02 _ 01 _______ 62
rameire _______________ 22 _ 10*_ 15 _ 05 _ 08 ___ 06 _ 00 _______ 66
waterways _____________ 21 _ 17*_ 11 _ 07 _ 06 ___ 08 _ 02 _______ 72
John mac _____ (-1) _____21 _ 14*_ 00 _ 10 _ 05 ___ 02 _ 00 __ 52-1=51
sryanbruen ____________ 21 _ 11*_ 11 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 08 _ 01 _______ 70
Lumi __________________21 _ 11*_ 09 _ 00 _ 09 ___ 08 _ 00 _______ 58

Con Sensus ____________ 21 _ 11*_ 11 _ 05 _ 08 ___ 08 _ 01 _______ 65

Bsal __________________ 21 _ 06*_ 12 _ 00 _ 08 ___ 05 _ 01 _______ 53
DOCARCH _____________ 20 _ 13*_ 19 _ 05 _ 08 ___ 08 _ 02 _______ 75
MrSkinner _____________ 20 _ 10*_ 17 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 03 _ 02 _______ 70
M.T. Cranium ___________19 _ 12*_ 10 _ 00 _ 10 ___ 07 _ 00 _______ 58
Pauldry _______________ 18 _ 02*_ 19 _ 00 _ 08 ___ 08 _ 00 _______ 55
200motels _____________ 17 _ 15*_ 09 _ 13 _ 05 ___ 07 _ 01 _______ 67
Tae laidir_______________17 _ 11*_ 12 _ 02 _ 07 ___ 08 _ 00 _______ 57
Jpmarn ______ (-1) _____ 16 _ 09*_ 17 _ 03 _ 10 ___ 02 _ 00 __ 57-1=56
Dasa29 ______ (-2) _____ 16 _ 07*_ 07 _ 08 _ 07 ___ 05 _ 02 __ 52-2=50
Carnacalla ____ (-2) _____12 _ 04*_ 08 _ 00 _ 06 ___ 05 _ 00 __ 35-2=33
_________________________________________________________

* MAX scores are adjusted for minimum progression.

Tae laidir

Can anyone provide me with the link to the August competition as my browser is acting strangely?

sryanbruen

Tae laidir wrote: »

Can anyone provide me with the link to the August competition as my browser is acting strangely?

Here ya go Strong Tea :P

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057628334&page=2

Jpmarn

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Updated Table of forecasts (with Con Sensus added)

FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ High Min, date

Dacogawa _____________ 16.1 _ 28.1 _ 3.9 _ 155 _ 080 ___ 16.9 _ 24
Rikand _______ (-2) _____16.0 _ 26.0 _ 3.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 18.0 _ 31
Sunflower3 ____________ 15.9 _ 25.5 _ 4.9 _ 105 _ 110 ___ 16.1 _ 21
JD ___________________ 15.8 _ 27.2 _ 3.9 _ 125 _ 092 ___ 17.2 _ 29
Kindred Spirit __________ 15.3 _ 27.0 _ 4.0 _ 104 _ 095 ___ 17.0 _ 22

Norma L _______________15.3 _ 27.0 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 16.5 _ **

Joe Public ______________15.1 _ 24.9 _ 3.9 _ 109 _ 099 ___ 18.9 _ 22
rameire _______________ 15.1 _ 24.8 _ 3.3 _ 125 _ 088 ___ 16.3 _ 09
waterways _____________ 15.0 _ 27.3 _ 3.9 _ 119 _ 101 ___ 16.8 _ 16
John mac _____ (-1) _____15.0 _ 26.0 _ 6.9 _ 110 _ 103 ___ 14.8 _ 27
sryanbruen ____________ 15.0 _ 25.0 _ 3.9 _ 105 _ 101 ___ 16.9 _ 23
Lumi __________________15.0 _ 25.0 _ 3.7 _ 152 _ 085 ___ 16.7 _ 29

Con Sensus ____________ 15.0 _ 25.0 _ 3.9 _ 124 _ 092 ___ 16.8 _ 23

Bsal __________________ 15.0 _ 23.8 _ 4.0 _ 140 _ 090 ___ 16.0 _ 13
DOCARCH _____________ 14.9 _ 25.6 _ 4.7 _ 124 _ 092 ___ 16.8 _ 21
MrSkinner _____________ 14.9 _ 24.9 _ 4.5 _ 111 _ 092 ___ 15.8 _ 16
M.T. Cranium ___________14.8 _ 25.5 _ 3.8 _ 160 _ 080 ___ 17.1 _ 30
Pauldry _______________ 14.7 _ 23.0 _ 4.9 _ 180 _ 088 ___ 16.8 _ 31
200motels _____________ 14.6 _ 27.0 _ 5.9 _ 102 _ 106 ___ 16.6 _ 23
Tae laidir_______________14.6 _ 25.0 _ 4.0 _ 135 _ 094 ___ 16.8 _ 29
Jpmarn ______ (-1) _____ 14.5 _ 24.5 _ 4.5 _ 130 _ 080 ___ 14.8 _ 26
Dasa29 ______ (-2) _____ 14.5 _ 24.0 _ 3.5 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 16.0 _ 16
Carnacalla ____ (-2) _____14.1 _ 23.2 _ 3.6 _ 145 _ 100 ___ 17.4 _ 29
_________________________________________________________

Just reposting this table just to compare you guesses and the scores you getting.

M.T. Cranium

I can confirm that the IMT settled at 15.4 although it was 15.44 -- so those scores are good to go.

My rough calculation on PRC is 93% but will wait for the MS on 3rd to confirm that.

I have not done any further estimates on SUN and will await the MS numbers, and I have no new info about MAX, MIN while continuing to think that 16.9 (Dunsany, on the 18th) was the high min. Unless I find otherwise that will also stand.

So would imagine these provisional scores will be very close to the actual ones posted on 3rd as I'm sure the edit function will run out and we may as well see them at the end of the thread.

General heads up, if you can't find sticky threads you can solve that by either going to legacy site or clicking on "important threads" in green box top right of your screen. I went through this back in the spring. Back to old school legacy site for me and my fixed link.

M.T. Cranium

The scores are now confirmed. IMT was already confirmed at 15.4 C. MAX and MIN were confirmed at 30.4 and 4.8 C.

PRC came in on 93%, the scoring was based on 95% and is maintained to reflect that there is a marginal "minimum progression" situation off 93%.

SUN registered somewhere between 77 and 81 per cent by margin of error of the stats that I have available, which is close enough to the 80 per cent used (and here again scores are very close to a minimum progression although a couple managed to max out at 10 points.

The bonus was already scored from known data as discussed.

As JPmarn has kindly posted the actual forecasts, I have taken a moment to review the scores for any errors. I did find one error in my math, sorry Rameire, your score on MIN drops by 10 from the provisional table. I checked the bonus scoring and found some where a one point shift was needed. Otherwise, the provisional table can now be taken as confirmed scoring for July, but I am going to repost it next in the correct order, then I will go on to updating the annual scoring.

Look for that in about ten minutes for the reordered table then in an hour after that for the annual update.

M.T. Cranium

Final scores for July 2016


FORECASTER ___________IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ Bonus (8,2) ___ TOTALS

Kindred Spirit __________ 24 _ 15*_ 12 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 08 _ 01 _______ 79
DOCARCH _____________ 20 _ 13*_ 19 _ 05 _ 08 ___ 08 _ 02 _______ 75
Sunflower3 ____________ 20 _ 12*_ 19 _ 12 _ 04 ___ 05 _ 02 _______ 74

Norma L ______________ 24 _ 15*_ 07 _ 13 _ 06 ___ 06 _ 02 _______ 73

waterways _____________21 _ 17*_ 11 _ 07 _ 06 ___ 08 _ 02 _______ 72
MrSkinner _____________ 20 _ 10*_ 17 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 04 _ 02 _______ 71
sryanbruen ____________ 21 _ 11*_ 11 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 08 _ 01 _______ 70
JD ___________________ 21 _ 16*_ 11 _ 05 _ 08 ___ 06 _ 00 _______ 67
Dacogawa _____________ 18 _ 18*_ 11 _ 00 _ 10 ___ 08 _ 01 _______ 66
200motels _____________ 17 _ 15*_ 09 _ 13 _ 05 ___ 06 _ 01 _______ 66

Con Sensus ____________ 21 _ 11*_ 11 _ 05 _ 08 ___ 08 _ 01 _______ 65

Joe Public ______________22 _ 10*_ 11 _ 10 _ 06 ___ 02 _ 01 _______ 62
M.T. Cranium ___________19 _ 12*_ 10 _ 00 _ 10 ___ 07 _ 00 _______ 58
Lumi __________________21 _ 11*_ 09 _ 00 _ 09 ___ 07 _ 00 _______ 57
Tae laidir_______________17 _ 11*_ 12 _ 02 _ 07 ___ 08 _ 00 _______ 57
Jpmarn ______ (-1) _____ 16 _ 09*_ 17 _ 03 _ 10 ___ 01 _ 00 __ 56-1=55
rameire _______________ 22 _ 10*_ 05 _ 05 _ 08 ___ 05 _ 00 _______ 55
Pauldry _______________ 18 _ 02*_ 19 _ 00 _ 08 ___ 08 _ 00 _______ 55
Rikand _______ (-2) _____19 _ 14*_ 02 _ 10 _ 06 ___ 03 _ 00 __ 54-2=52
Bsal __________________ 21 _ 06*_ 12 _ 00 _ 08 ___ 04 _ 01 _______ 52
John mac _____ (-1) _____21 _ 14*_ 00 _ 10 _ 05 ___ 01 _ 00 __ 51-1=50
Dasa29 ______ (-2) _____ 16 _ 07*_ 07 _ 08 _ 07 ___ 04 _ 02 __ 51-2=49
Carnacalla ____ (-2) _____ 12 _ 04*_ 08 _ 00 _ 06 ___ 05 _ 00 __ 35-2=33
_________________________________________________________

* MAX scores are adjusted for minimum progression.

Congrats to Kindred Spirit, DOCARCH and sunflower3 for leading the way, for a change Norma L beat most of us and Con Sensus. Well done Norma L. (why thank you kind sir).

M.T. Cranium

Annual scoring for 2016


rank _FORECASTER ________Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun _Jul __ TOTAL ____ best 6 of 7 (rank)


01 waterways _____________ 75 _ 75 _ 58 _ 66 _ 75 _ 75 _ 72 ___ 496 _____ 438 (1)

02 Con Sensus ____________ 73 _ 75 _ 77 _ 70 _ 67 _ 57 _ 65 ___ 484 _____ 427 (3)

02 MrSkinner ______________83 _ 66 _ 64 _ 58 _ 73 _ 67 _ 71 ___ 482 _____ 424 (3)
03 Lumi __________________71 _ 72 _ 89 _ 59 _ 65 _ 60 _ 57 ___ 473 _____ 416 (5)
04 Sunflower3 _____________72 _ 71 _ 81 _ 43 _ 61 _ 63 _ 74 ___ 465 _____ 422 (4)
05 DOCARCH _____________ 53 _ 62 _ 61 _ 71 _ 71 _ 58 _ 75 ___ 451 _____ 398 (6t)

06 Norma L _______________52 _ 65 _ 70 _ 57 _ 71 _ 61 _ 73 ___ 449 _____ 397 (8)

06 Rameire _______________ 69 _ 60 _ 70 _ 72 _ 59 _ 63 _ 55 ___ 448 _____ 393 (9)
07 Tae laidir ______________ 86 _ 76 _ 76 _ 46 _ 47 _ 53 _ 57 ___ 441 _____ 395 (8)
08t mickger844posts _______ 78 _ 63 _ 89 _ 68 _ 79 _ 59 _ --- ___ 436 _____ 436 (2)
08t Rikand _______________ 67 _ 76 _ 54 _ 54 _ 73 _ 60 _ 52 ___ 436 _____ 384 (13)
10 Dacogawa _____________ 52 _ 58 _ 89 _ 50 _ 75 _ 47 _ 66 ___ 437 _____ 390 (10t)

11t Sryanbruen ___________ 27 _ 63 _ 52 _ 76 _ 65 _ 72 _ 70 ___ 425 _____ 398 (6t)
11t Jpmarn _______________64 _ 60 _ 47 _ 75 _ 73 _ 51 _ 55 ___ 425 _____ 378 (17)
13 M.T. Cranium ___________46 _ 62 _ 78 _ 66 _ 69 _ 45 _ 58 ___ 424 _____ 379 (16)
14 JD____________________ 69 _ 77 _ 32 _ 71 _ 61 _ 45 _ 67 ___ 422 _____ 390 (10t)
15 Joe Public ______________28 _ 63 _ 65 _ 72 _ 63 _ 59 _ 62 ___ 412 _____ 384 (15)
16t 200motels _____________46 _ 68 _ 74 _ 61 _ 70 _ 22 _ 66 ___ 407 _____ 385 (14)
16t Bsal __________________65 _ 66 _ 66 _ 60 _ 53 _ 45 _ 52 ___ 407 _____ 362 (18)
18 Pauldry________________ 53 _ 69 _ 45 _ 80 _ 56 _ 45 _ 55 ___ 403 _____ 358 (19)
19 Dasa29 ________________66 _ 58 _ 67 _ 53 _ 56 _ 53 _ 49 ___ 402 _____ 353 (20)
20 lostinashford ___________ 69 _ 66 _ 63 _ 78 _ 77 _ 36 _ --- ___ 389 _____ 389 (12)

21 john mac ______________ 72 _ 57 _ 36 _ 44 _ 66 _ 57 _ 50 ___ 382 _____ 346 (21)
22 kindredspirit ____________--- _ 35 _ 65 _ 58 _ 61 _ 41 _ 79 ___ 339 _____ 339 (22)
23 Schadenfreudia __________65 _ 72 _ 58 _ 65 _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 260 _____
24 omicron ________________76 _ 43 _ 72 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 191
25 Carnacalla ______________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 72 _ 33 ___ 105
25 Timmyboy ______________ --- _ 53 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---_ --- ____ 53
26 Elmer Blooker ___________ --- _ --- _ 51 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ____ 51
______________________________________________________________

Waterways now leads both contests and is our lone challenger to stay ahead of Con Sensus in both of them; Mickger844posts holds on to second in the Boards contest (ranked at end of each row), while MrSkinner is third in that contest and second in the total score (MTC) division. Lumi, Sunflower3 and DOCARCH are all quite close behind the leaders. Norma L and Sryanbruen made significant moves up the table.

waterways

Please help me to beat Con Sensus! I think my August forecast is ship-wrecked.

Thank you M.T. Cranium for all your work,

waterways

Oh and I forgot to say:
Congrats to Kindred Spirit for the great July forecast!