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July 2016 Boards forecast contest

  • 28-06-2016 4:10am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,215 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the IMT (Irish mean temperature, an average for five stations, Casement, Claremorris, Mullingar, Oak Park and Shannon). The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 15.3 C.

    2. Predict the MAX, the highest daily maximum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

    3. Predict the MIN, the lowest daily minimum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

    4. Predict the PRC, the average rainfall expressed as percentage of normal at the eleven stations we normally use, which include the five mentioned for IMT and also Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Malin Head, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia.

    5. Predict the SUN, the total sunshine expressed as a percentage of normal at the six stations used (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia).

    6. For a BONUS question, predict the highest minimum temperature of the month and the date. In case anyone needs further instructions, a high minimum equates to a warm overnight low reading, backed up by further warmth before midnight the following night. An average value for this is set at 17.5 C.

    Enter by the deadline of 0300h on Friday 1st of July, or take the slight penalties that are assigned on first, increasing on second.

    Good luck !!


«13

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,853 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry __________ 14.7 _ 23.0_ 4.9 _ 180_ 88 _ 16.8 July 31st


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen __________ 16.5 _ 27.0_ 3.9 _ 75_ 110 _ 18.9 July 23rd

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    pauldry wrote: »
    Pauldry __________ 14.7 _ 23.0_ 4.9 _ 180_ 88 _ 16.8 July 31st

    I'm doin' the exact opposite as you :cool:.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,717 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal __________ 15.0 _ 23.8_ 4.0 _ 140_ 90 _ 16.0 July 13th


  • Registered Users Posts: 165 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3.....15.9.....25.5.....4.9.....105......110.......16.1.....21st....


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels
    14.6 _ 27.0_ 5.9 _ 102_ 106 _ 16.6 July 23rd
    __________________


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,853 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    I'm doin' the exact opposite as you :cool:.

    I hope youre right!


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,770 ✭✭✭ rameire


    rameire __________ 15.1 _ 24.8_ 3.3 _ 125_ 88 _ 16.3 July 9th


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    pauldry wrote: »
    I hope youre right!

    So do I. I don't want a double cold July like 2011 and 2012.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    sryanbruen __________ 16.5 _ 27.0_ 3.9 _ 75_ 110 _ 18.9 July 23rd

    EDIT: sryanbruen___________ 15.0 _ 25.0 _ 105 _ 101 _ 16.9 July 23rd

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



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  • Registered Users Posts: 318 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit......15.3......27.0........4.0.......104........95.....17.0 22nd of July.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    mrskinner wrote: »
    Skinner"...........17.........29...........2............155............43.......12.3belmullet

    'Em are you from Spain :eek:?

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,122 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH __________ 14.9 _ 25.6_ 4.7 _ 124_ 92 _ 16.8 July 21st


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,215 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    MTC _____ 14.8 _ 25.5 _ 3.8 _ 160 _ 080 _ 17.1 30th


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,584 ✭✭✭ jd


    JD __________ 15.8 _ 27.2_ 3.9 _ 125_92 _ 17.2 July 29


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 Lumi


    Lumi _____ 15.0 _ 25.0 _ 3.7 _ 152 _ 085 _ 16.7 29th


  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner: ........... [email protected]


  • Registered Users Posts: 352 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways......15.0......27.3........3.9.......119........101.....16.8 16nd of July. can we have a BBQ then together with M.T.?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,773 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa __________ 16.1 _ 28.1_ 3.9 _ 155_ 80 _ 16.9 July 24th


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir__________ 14.6 _ 25.0_ 4.0 _ 135 _ 94 _ 16.8 July 29th


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,746 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public __________ 15.1 _ 24.9_ 3.9 _ 109_ 99 _ 18.9 July 22nd


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,997 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac __________ 15.0 _ 26.0_ 6.9 _ 110_ 103 _ 14.8__ 27


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn __________ 14.5_ 24.5_ 4.5 _ 130_ 80_ 14.8 July 26th.


  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29 __________ 14.5 _ 24.0_ 3.5 _115 _ 95 _ 16.0 July 16nd


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,573 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    I did it again :(

    Rikand _____ 16.0 ___ 26.0 ____ 3.0 _____ 110 _____ 100 ____ 18.0 31st July


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,666 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    Rikand wrote: »
    I did it again :(

    Rikand _____ 16.0 ___ 26.0 ____ 3.0 _____ 110 _____ 100 ____ 18.0 31st July

    Yep same, I'm on holidays and didn't even notice the thread!

    Carnacalla _____ 14.1_ 23.2 _ 3.6 _ 145 _ 100 _ 17.4 29th


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Carnacalla wrote: »
    Yep same, I'm on holidays and didn't even notice the thread!

    Carnacalla _____ 14.1_ 23.2 _ 3.6 _ 145 _ 100 _ 17.4 29th

    I hope you're wrong! I don't want a July like last year 'til like, NEVER.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,215 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Here's a list of the forecasts received so far, I am going to be away from the internet for about four days starting "today" so, if we get some more late entries, I may need to post a larger table. For that reason I won't establish Con Sensus numbers until then.

    As to the b.b.q. question, not this year sadly won't be able to travel out of my own time zone, maybe one of these years ...

    FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ High Min, date

    Dacogawa _____________ 16.1 _ 28.1 _ 3.9 _ 155 _ 080 ___ 16.9 _ 24
    Rikand _______ (-2) _____16.0 _ 26.0 _ 3.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 18.0 _ 31
    Sunflower3 ____________ 15.9 _ 25.5 _ 4.9 _ 105 _ 110 ___ 16.1 _ 21
    JD ___________________ 15.8 _ 27.2 _ 3.9 _ 125 _ 092 ___ 17.2 _ 29
    Kindred Spirit __________ 15.3 _ 27.0 _ 4.0 _ 104 _ 095 ___ 17.0 _ 22

    Norma L _______________15.3 _ 27.0 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 16.5 _ **

    Joe Public ______________15.1 _ 24.9 _ 3.9 _ 109 _ 099 ___ 18.9 _ 22
    rameire _______________ 15.1 _ 24.8 _ 3.3 _ 125 _ 088 ___ 16.3 _ 09
    waterways _____________ 15.0 _ 27.3 _ 3.9 _ 119 _ 101 ___ 16.8 _ 16
    John mac _____ (-1) _____15.0 _ 26.0 _ 6.9 _ 110 _ 103 ___ 14.8 _ 27
    sryanbruen ____________ 15.0 _ 25.0 _ 3.9 _ 105 _ 101 ___ 16.9 _ 23
    Lumi __________________15.0 _ 25.0 _ 3.7 _ 152 _ 085 ___ 16.7 _ 29
    Bsal __________________ 15.0 _ 23.8 _ 4.0 _ 140 _ 090 ___ 16.0 _ 13
    DOCARCH _____________ 14.9 _ 25.6 _ 4.7 _ 124 _ 092 ___ 16.8 _ 21
    MrSkinner _____________ 14.9 _ 24.9 _ 4.5 _ 111 _ 092 ___ 15.8 _ 16
    M.T. Cranium ___________14.8 _ 25.5 _ 3.8 _ 160 _ 080 ___ 17.1 _ 30
    Pauldry _______________ 14.7 _ 23.0 _ 4.9 _ 180 _ 088 ___ 16.8 _ 31
    200motels _____________ 14.6 _ 27.0 _ 5.9 _ 102 _ 106 ___ 16.6 _ 23
    Tae laidir_______________14.6 _ 25.0 _ 4.0 _ 135 _ 094 ___ 16.8 _ 29
    Jpmarn ______ (-1) _____ 14.5 _ 24.5 _ 4.5 _ 130 _ 080 ___ 14.8 _ 26
    Dasa29 ______ (-2) _____ 14.5 _ 24.0 _ 3.5 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 16.0 _ 16
    Carnacalla ____ (-2) _____14.1 _ 23.2 _ 3.6 _ 145 _ 100 ___ 17.4 _ 29
    _________________________________________________________

    ** NormaL will get zero points if date is 1st-15th, one point if 16th-24th and max of two points if 25th-31st. I estimated the value of 16.5 from forecasting experience but I'm open to changing that if anyone has strong opinions about what an average July high minimum might be.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,746 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Con got away with it for long enough but I feel Norma should be subjected to penalty points for a late entry. Come on, fair is fair and rules are rules :)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Joe Public wrote: »
    Con got away with it for long enough but I feel Norma should be subjected to penalty points for a late entry. Come on, fair is fair and rules are rules :)

    Norma L is not a person. The figures are average means for the month over a 30 year period 1981 to 2010. Also ConSensus is not a person. The figures will be the average over all the guesses. M.T. will be calculating these figures when he gets back to his computer on Tuesday. For average temperature this month the Consensus look like it will about 15.0c about 0.3c below Normal.


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