July 2016 Boards forecast contest

MTC _____ 14.8 _ 25.5 _ 3.8 _ 160 _ 080 _ 17.1 30th

Here's a list of the forecasts received so far, I am going to be away from the internet for about four days starting "today" so, if we get some more late entries, I may need to post a larger table. For that reason I won't establish Con Sensus numbers until then.

As to the b.b.q. question, not this year sadly won't be able to travel out of my own time zone, maybe one of these years ...

FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ High Min, date

Dacogawa _____________ 16.1 _ 28.1 _ 3.9 _ 155 _ 080 ___ 16.9 _ 24
Rikand _______ (-2) _____16.0 _ 26.0 _ 3.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 18.0 _ 31
Sunflower3 ____________ 15.9 _ 25.5 _ 4.9 _ 105 _ 110 ___ 16.1 _ 21
JD ___________________ 15.8 _ 27.2 _ 3.9 _ 125 _ 092 ___ 17.2 _ 29
Kindred Spirit __________ 15.3 _ 27.0 _ 4.0 _ 104 _ 095 ___ 17.0 _ 22

Norma L _______________15.3 _ 27.0 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 16.5 _ **

Joe Public ______________15.1 _ 24.9 _ 3.9 _ 109 _ 099 ___ 18.9 _ 22
rameire _______________ 15.1 _ 24.8 _ 3.3 _ 125 _ 088 ___ 16.3 _ 09
waterways _____________ 15.0 _ 27.3 _ 3.9 _ 119 _ 101 ___ 16.8 _ 16
John mac _____ (-1) _____15.0 _ 26.0 _ 6.9 _ 110 _ 103 ___ 14.8 _ 27
sryanbruen ____________ 15.0 _ 25.0 _ 3.9 _ 105 _ 101 ___ 16.9 _ 23
Lumi __________________15.0 _ 25.0 _ 3.7 _ 152 _ 085 ___ 16.7 _ 29
Bsal __________________ 15.0 _ 23.8 _ 4.0 _ 140 _ 090 ___ 16.0 _ 13
DOCARCH _____________ 14.9 _ 25.6 _ 4.7 _ 124 _ 092 ___ 16.8 _ 21
MrSkinner _____________ 14.9 _ 24.9 _ 4.5 _ 111 _ 092 ___ 15.8 _ 16
M.T. Cranium ___________14.8 _ 25.5 _ 3.8 _ 160 _ 080 ___ 17.1 _ 30
Pauldry _______________ 14.7 _ 23.0 _ 4.9 _ 180 _ 088 ___ 16.8 _ 31
200motels _____________ 14.6 _ 27.0 _ 5.9 _ 102 _ 106 ___ 16.6 _ 23
Tae laidir_______________14.6 _ 25.0 _ 4.0 _ 135 _ 094 ___ 16.8 _ 29
Jpmarn ______ (-1) _____ 14.5 _ 24.5 _ 4.5 _ 130 _ 080 ___ 14.8 _ 26
Dasa29 ______ (-2) _____ 14.5 _ 24.0 _ 3.5 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 16.0 _ 16
Carnacalla ____ (-2) _____14.1 _ 23.2 _ 3.6 _ 145 _ 100 ___ 17.4 _ 29
_________________________________________________________

** NormaL will get zero points if date is 1st-15th, one point if 16th-24th and max of two points if 25th-31st. I estimated the value of 16.5 from forecasting experience but I'm open to changing that if anyone has strong opinions about what an average July high minimum might be.

Updated Table of forecasts (with Con Sensus added)

FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ High Min, date

Dacogawa _____________ 16.1 _ 28.1 _ 3.9 _ 155 _ 080 ___ 16.9 _ 24
Rikand _______ (-2) _____16.0 _ 26.0 _ 3.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 18.0 _ 31
Sunflower3 ____________ 15.9 _ 25.5 _ 4.9 _ 105 _ 110 ___ 16.1 _ 21
JD ___________________ 15.8 _ 27.2 _ 3.9 _ 125 _ 092 ___ 17.2 _ 29
Kindred Spirit __________ 15.3 _ 27.0 _ 4.0 _ 104 _ 095 ___ 17.0 _ 22

Norma L _______________15.3 _ 27.0 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 16.5 _ **

Joe Public ______________15.1 _ 24.9 _ 3.9 _ 109 _ 099 ___ 18.9 _ 22
rameire _______________ 15.1 _ 24.8 _ 3.3 _ 125 _ 088 ___ 16.3 _ 09
waterways _____________ 15.0 _ 27.3 _ 3.9 _ 119 _ 101 ___ 16.8 _ 16
John mac _____ (-1) _____15.0 _ 26.0 _ 6.9 _ 110 _ 103 ___ 14.8 _ 27
sryanbruen ____________ 15.0 _ 25.0 _ 3.9 _ 105 _ 101 ___ 16.9 _ 23
Lumi __________________15.0 _ 25.0 _ 3.7 _ 152 _ 085 ___ 16.7 _ 29

Con Sensus ____________ 15.0 _ 25.0 _ 3.9 _ 124 _ 092 ___ 16.8 _ 23

Bsal __________________ 15.0 _ 23.8 _ 4.0 _ 140 _ 090 ___ 16.0 _ 13
DOCARCH _____________ 14.9 _ 25.6 _ 4.7 _ 124 _ 092 ___ 16.8 _ 21
MrSkinner _____________ 14.9 _ 24.9 _ 4.5 _ 111 _ 092 ___ 15.8 _ 16
M.T. Cranium ___________14.8 _ 25.5 _ 3.8 _ 160 _ 080 ___ 17.1 _ 30
Pauldry _______________ 14.7 _ 23.0 _ 4.9 _ 180 _ 088 ___ 16.8 _ 31
200motels _____________ 14.6 _ 27.0 _ 5.9 _ 102 _ 106 ___ 16.6 _ 23
Tae laidir_______________14.6 _ 25.0 _ 4.0 _ 135 _ 094 ___ 16.8 _ 29
Jpmarn ______ (-1) _____ 14.5 _ 24.5 _ 4.5 _ 130 _ 080 ___ 14.8 _ 26
Dasa29 ______ (-2) _____ 14.5 _ 24.0 _ 3.5 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 16.0 _ 16
Carnacalla ____ (-2) _____14.1 _ 23.2 _ 3.6 _ 145 _ 100 ___ 17.4 _ 29
_________________________________________________________

Our scoring leader mickger844posts did not enter in July, this won't greatly affect his chances in the best 10 of 12 scoring system as he would still have one to "give" there.

The consensus of the group is for a rather cool, moist and cloudy month, with no forecasts below normal for rainfall.

So far, by my quick check of the data, the high minimum established is only 12.4 at Valentia on 4th (not including today to be checked later).

Just for the record, the extremes so far:

MAX 22.4 Gurteen 7th

MIN 4.8 Moorepark 3rd.

Update after two weeks (14 days) ...

IMT at 14.2 with the week 14.8 (0.6 below normal for the period).

PRC at 116% after a rather wet week (142% of normal). Estimate 125% now after today's rain.

SUN down to 79.1% of normal after a very cloudy week (61% of normal, basically 3-4 hours a day instead of the normal 5-6 or so).

No changes to MAX or MIN (today will change the MAX), min on 14th was 6.6 C, and the high minimum for the bonus will probably be adjustable by end of this current warm spell. Would expect IMT to gain about 0.2 a day for about a week now, could be in the mid 15s eventually.