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The Bad Man Tipster

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    #122
    poa
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭poa


    mailburner wrote: »
    You considered putting a seven figure sum on something yet are only putting 700 or so on something you consider to be a cert above
    would you not put on more if that were the case?

    My accounts are limited with all the main bookies.
    Paddypower will only allow me 500 max now on this.
    So the balance will be on Betfairs exchange next week.
    They are the only two I can get any weight on with now.
    I have gambled for 16 years, now its nothing like I used to; mainly due to the bookies limits.
    These days I place 3-4 moderate 500-2K bets per year and do 2-3 months in-depth research on each bet.
    I would like to get more on Bremain, but my main bet of the year; and funds are tied up in Clinton to win POTUS in November. Nothing special though only 2K, but I consider it a dead cert.
    My days of backing 7 figures are over now, I got what I wanted from gambling over 16 years. I was never pro, but used to back more heavy, and more frequently.
    Upsets do happen too.
    My biggest bet of the year was meant to be on Wilder v Povetkin. I had 4 figures on Wilder, but due to Povetkin's positive test for Meldomium the fight was cancelled and my bet was voided. Its a shame as I considered that a dead cert. So I am now going for Bremain, Tyson Fury, Hilary Clinton.
    They are my bets for this year and that's it in November. Wilder would have pumped things up nicely, but what can one do? Somethings are just not meant to be.


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    #123
    Bandana boy
    Registered Users Posts: 4,325 ✭✭✭Bandana boy


    poa wrote: »
    My accounts are limited with all the main bookies.
    Paddypower will only allow me 500 max now on this.
    So the balance will be on Betfairs exchange next week.
    They are the only two I can get any weight on with now.
    I have gambled for 16 years, now its nothing like I used to; mainly due to the bookies limits.
    These days I place 3-4 moderate 500-2K bets per year and do 2-3 months in-depth research on each bet.
    I would like to get more on Bremain, but my main bet of the year; and funds are tied up in Clinton to win POTUS in November. Nothing special though only 2K, but I consider it a dead cert.
    My days of backing 7 figures are over now, I got what I wanted from gambling over 16 years. I was never pro, but used to back more heavy, and more frequently.
    Upsets do happen too.
    My biggest bet of the year was meant to be on Wilder v Povetkin. I had 4 figures on Wilder, but due to Povetkin's positive test for Meldomium the fight was cancelled and my bet was voided. Its a shame as I considered that a dead cert. So I am now going for Bremain, Tyson Fury, Hilary Clinton.
    They are my bets for this year and that's it in November. Wilder would have pumped things up nicely, but what can one do? Somethings are just not meant to be.

    You are doing 2-3 months research on a 500 quid bet and other times somehow getting a million quid bet on some random tennis match , I do not believe you


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    #124
    poa
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭poa


    Bandana boy wrote: »
    You are doing 2-3 months research on a 500 quid bet and other times somehow getting a million quid bet on some random tennis match , I do not believe you

    Where did I say I bet a million on a tennis match?
    I think you are mistaken.
    Read my posts properly, then quote me correctly.
    Then make your point.
    Yes, I do 2-3 months research typically on my 3-4 bets per year.
    I do this whether its 500 or 2K, and did the same over 16 years of gambling right up to my max bets of 7 figures.
    That is what it takes to win, and win, and win.
    Hard work and dedication pays, and so my accounts with the main bookies are limited now as a result.
    I like to bet on Tennis, Boxing, Oscars, Politics. I don't get involved with other markets.
    With regard to my tennis example of Djokovic and 1.1, I was trying to clarify that dead certs do exist in some 50/50 cases with no draws. Upsets can and do happen, but they are rare.
    Of course 1.1 isn't value so one must lump on, but its low risk. 7 figures on 1.1 is much safer than on 1.5 etc. I think you get the point now.
    The only time I have mentioned 1 million, is when I gave the example of how the EU referendum market has moved from 33M to 34M on Bremain after MP Jo was murdered. The point being, that to make 1M move in a market; yes, there were some 7 figure pro-gambler backing Bremain, as they do daily.
    I could break this down further, but I think you get it now.
    Don't muddle what I have said to try and run me down, show me up, or slag me with misquotes.
    The only person you are showing up here is yourself.
    I talk sense based on 16 years of my gambling, and fact.
    My ultimate point being; that doing 2-3 months research personally on even a small 500 Euro bet, is better than trusting an online tipster who is an affiliate marketer paid by a bookie to give tips.


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    #125
    Bandana boy
    Registered Users Posts: 4,325 ✭✭✭Bandana boy


    poa wrote: »
    Where did I say I bet a million on a tennis match?
    I think you are mistaken.
    Read my posts properly, then quote me correctly.
    Then make your point.
    Yes, I do 2-3 months research typically on my 3-4 bets per year.
    I do this whether its 500 or 2K, and did the same over 16 years of gambling right up to my max bets of 7 figures.
    That is what it takes to win, and win, and win.
    Hard work and dedication pays, and so my accounts with the main bookies are limited now as a result.
    I like to bet on Tennis, Boxing, Oscars, Politics. I don't get involved with other markets.
    With regard to my tennis example of Djokovic and 1.1, I was trying to clarify that dead certs do exist in some 50/50 cases with no draws. Upsets can and do happen, but they are rare.
    Of course 1.1 isn't value so one must lump on, but its low risk. 7 figures on 1.1 is much safer than on 1.5 etc. I think you get the point now.
    The only time I have mentioned 1 million, is when I gave the example of how the EU referendum market has moved from 33M to 34M on Bremain after MP Jo was murdered. The point being, that to make 1M move in a market; yes, there were some 7 figure pro-gambler backing Bremain, as they do daily.
    I could break this down further, but I think you get it now.
    Don't muddle what I have said to try and run me down, show me up, or slag me with misquotes.
    The only person you are showing up here is yourself.
    I talk sense based on 16 years of my gambling, and fact.
    My ultimate point being; that doing 2-3 months research personally on even a small 500 Euro bet, is better than trusting an online tipster who is an affiliate marketer paid by a bookie to give tips.

    You have a bank roll of somewhere between 2-18 million which you were previously willing to risk in bets of a million plus , but now you do a years research to gamble 2-8 thousand across 3-4 bets , putting somewhere in the region of 0.0001 and 0.004 % of your bank on the line . This is not true , nor are any of your stories of million pound bets that you are anyone you know have placed

    Free Twitter tipsters are certainly not worth quitting your job to follow , but as a bit of fun trying to turn 10 quid into a grand they are pretty harmless , is certainly not worth making up your stories to turn people away


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    #126
    poa
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭poa


    Bandana boy wrote: »
    You have a bank roll of somewhere between 2-18 million which you were previously willing to risk in bets of a million plus , but now you do a years research to gamble 2-8 thousand across 3-4 bets , putting somewhere in the region of 0.0001 and 0.004 % of your bank on the line . This is not true , nor are any of your stories of million pound bets that you are anyone you know have placed

    Free Twitter tipsters are certainly not worth quitting your job to follow , but as a bit of fun trying to turn 10 quid into a grand they are pretty harmless , is certainly not worth making up your stories to turn people away

    OK you are trolling now.
    I have reported you and added you to my ignore list.
    I wish you the best of luck with your bets.


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    #127
    ianburke
    Registered Users Posts: 691 ✭✭✭ianburke


    wilder was my biggest bet of the year too. couldn't believe the odds.i was very confident he would have smashed povetkin around the ring. at 4/5 you could not go wrong. was sick when i learned the russian had failed a drugs test.

    the dead cert thing is dangerous though. surely price is the most important thing. if wilder was 1/5 i wouldn't touch it. djokovic was 1/50 on average to beat rank 21 feliciano lopez in february and lost. he was 1/66 to beat number 45 in the world vesely and lost. lost to karlovic in 2015, robredo in 2014. all of these would be certs in your book and would have ended very badly. it would be a long time clawing back those losses and every now and again he would lose to another bum.


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    #128
    Shanotheslayer
    Registered Users Posts: 17,191 ✭✭✭✭Shanotheslayer


    Poa,

    Why don't you use Asian bookies if you're so limited? They likes of Mackers etc, bet multiple thousands on games and aren't limited.


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    #129
    inforfun
    Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 20,862 Mod ✭✭✭✭inforfun


    MOD

    Back on topic, please (if there ever was one)
    And drop the handbagging.
    Next will be closing this thread and sent you all outside to play


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    #130
    Mellor
    Registered Users Posts: 39,047 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    poa wrote: »
    The only time I have mentioned 1 million, is when I gave the example of how the EU referendum market has moved from 33M to 34M on Bremain after MP Jo was murdered.
    Saying you used to place "7 figures" implies you were betting 1m+. Is that not what you meant?
    Some might find bets like that unbelievable from someone who wasn't betting professionally.
    How many bets in the 7 figure ballpark have you made?


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    #131
    Mellor
    Registered Users Posts: 39,047 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    These $10 into $$$$ challenges are fun to watch, if you aren't playing along.


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    #132
    ianburke
    Registered Users Posts: 691 ✭✭✭ianburke


    i don't think the bad man is a bad guy. i know he gets paid win or lose but surely if anything he prefers his tips to win than lose? he seems to put some thought into his selections. i wouldn't be gone on backing the picks at 1/3 etc but the odd challenge from 10 to 1000 has to be a bit of craic. can do no harm really.


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    #133
    poa
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭poa


    Shanotheslayer wrote: »
    Poa,

    Why don't you use Asian bookies if you're so limited? They likes of Mackers etc, bet multiple thousands on games and aren't limited.

    I am retired from that level of gambling now.
    I got what I wanted from 16 years of gambling.
    Now I am just happy to bet 3-4 times per year, 500-2K bets.


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    #134
    poa
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭poa


    Mellor wrote: »
    Saying you used to place "7 figures" implies you were betting 1m+. Is that not what you meant?
    Some might find bets like that unbelievable from someone who wasn't betting professionally.
    How many bets in the 7 figure ballpark have you made?

    I was part of a syndicate. The number depended on the market, but we would all contribute up to 7 figures. In my 16 years 3 times we lumped on that heavy.
    Personally 5 figures was a regular back bet for me at my peak. Oscars, boxing, tennis, politics.
    I have never got involved in other markets, even though I am well connected with others.
    This year my plan was; Wilder, Bremain, Fury, Clinton. Sadly Wilder was voided, so I will continue with the others as planned.
    I have 500 on Bremain, with another 200 to go on next week. 2K is on Clinton, so I am just waiting on the Bremain to deliver; and I will lump that on Fury.
    Nothing else interests me this year to be honest. I had moderate wins on Djokovic and Mugruza in the French Open finals respectively; but under 500 each so nothing special. I just backed them with what was voided off Wilder to be honest.
    I did OK over the 16 years, and decided to quit when I was ahead rather than go pro-level as that means 14-16 hour days to be successful. It isn't for me.
    These days I am happy with a few 500 or 2K bets.
    For what it's worth, my biggest loss was 12K on one 50/50 bet, so upsets do happen.


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    #135
    poa
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭poa


    ianburke wrote: »
    wilder was my biggest bet of the year too. couldn't believe the odds.i was very confident he would have smashed povetkin around the ring. at 4/5 you could not go wrong. was sick when i learned the russian had failed a drugs test.

    the dead cert thing is dangerous though. surely price is the most important thing. if wilder was 1/5 i wouldn't touch it. djokovic was 1/50 on average to beat rank 21 feliciano lopez in february and lost. he was 1/66 to beat number 45 in the world vesely and lost. lost to karlovic in 2015, robredo in 2014. all of these would be certs in your book and would have ended very badly. it would be a long time clawing back those losses and every now and again he would lose to another bum.

    Wilder was a real shame. I had 1K on him myself. Really good value odds.
    I am going lump 1K on Fury after my Bremain bet delivers as the 1.9 odds are also good. I reckon he will win on points again, same as last time.
    What do you think?


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    #136
    poa
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭poa


    I get asked for tips a lot, and rarely give them.
    But a nice accumulator if you fancy it is this:
    Bremain, Fury, Clinton.
    I am going on in singles myself, but did look at the odds for an accumulator and they are nice on Paddypower.
    Fury being 1.9 pumps it up nicely.


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    #137
    Mellor
    Registered Users Posts: 39,047 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    poa wrote: »
    These days I am happy with a few 500 or 2K bets.
    For what it's worth, my biggest loss was 12K on one 50/50 bet, so upsets do happen.
    You must have lost all the three 7 figure bets though? As you said previously that your biggest ever win was the oscars this year. Where you had 5 figures on Leo, a massive short priced favourite.
    20k bet would have been a win of only a few thousand.
    Lots of conflicting claims don't lend credibility.


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    #138
    ianburke
    Registered Users Posts: 691 ✭✭✭ianburke


    poa wrote: »
    Wilder was a real shame. I had 1K on him myself. Really good value odds.
    I am going lump 1K on Fury after my Bremain bet delivers as the 1.9 odds are also good. I reckon he will win on points again, same as last time.
    What do you think?

    Fury should win. I am backing himself, frampton and ward this summer. Only worry is fury getting screwed on the cards. He has upset a lot of people since november and all it would take is an offended judge to give a round or two against.


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    #139
    poa
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭poa


    Mellor wrote: »
    You must have lost all the three 7 figure bets though? As you said previously that your biggest ever win was the oscars this year. Where you had 5 figures on Leo, a massive short priced favourite.
    20k bet would have been a win of only a few thousand.
    Lots of conflicting claims don't lend credibility.

    Read my posts again.
    I was part of a syndicate, we pooled our funds together up to 7 figures.
    I was part of that level 3 times. Personally I have had 5 figures on bets (not as part of a syndicate). These days 2K per bet is my max.
    Yes I had 5 on DiCaprio at short odds. I considered him a dead cert, and that is my modus operandi usually. Short odds, favourite, low risk, heavy backing.
    I like 50/50 bets with no draws like tennis or the EU referendum for example.
    Upsets can and do happen, that's a given. But when one is backing a 1.1 favourite it's rare enough. That is where my 2-3 months of in-depth research comes in. Sometimes I will leave it if I have a bad feeling on it.
    For what its worth, I have lost 12K on a single bet so don't always get it right; no one can.
    I did my balls in backing 2K on Klitschko to beat Fury for example.
    This time I am backing Fury 1K at odds of 1.9.
    That is the way it goes, win some, lose some.
    I have done OK over the 16 years I gambled like I said. Now I just have 3-4 bets per year typically for fun. I am retired from heavy betting, as I decided its better to quit when one is ahead.
    It may interest you that there are Betfair syndicates currently operating with many members backing and laying together. I know of one on Bremain which I was invited to join but declined as I already have a bet on it.
    But its useful to have contacts, as some of the insider knowledge can be of use.
    I consider Bremain, Fury, Clinton; all to be safe bets. Consider it a tip.
    For the record, I don't care whether you believe me or not. I am not here to argue fact/fiction, I am happy to give a tip and see others profit.


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    #140
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    poa wrote: »
    I get asked for tips a lot, and rarely give them.
    But a nice accumulator if you fancy it is this:
    Bremain, Fury, Clinton.
    I am going on in singles myself, but did look at the odds for an accumulator and they are nice on Paddypower.
    Fury being 1.9 pumps it up nicely.

    It's 3.58 for this treble today, bit hard to get excited about those kind of treble numerals.

    Maybe liven it up with the NBA's Golden State Warriors 1.53 & Espania 4.33 for a lively 23.7.
    But maybe 'four from five' as Brexit too close to call* and boxing generally too volatile by it's very nature.
    Espania best ideally within in an e/w accum also.

    * close if it's counted properly as no in power wants brexit.

    Am surprised thebadmantipster lad still has 50k followers on twitter.
    - as he spends most of his time apologising to them all.


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    #141
    mailburner
    Registered Users Posts: 23,830 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    poa wrote: »
    For example, I was ready to place a 7 figure amount on a 50/50 event,
    that would be losing your balls alright
    poa wrote: »
    Read my posts again.
    I was part of a syndicate, we pooled our funds together up to 7 figures.


    For what its worth, I have lost 12K on a single bet so don't always get it right; no one can.
    I did my balls in backing 2K on Klitschko to beat Fury for example.
    .
    so it was a syndicate:confused:
    2k in comparison to above hardly a big deal/losing your balls
    Mellor wrote: »
    You must have lost all the three 7 figure bets though? As you said previously that your biggest ever win was the oscars this year. Where you had 5 figures on Leo, a massive short priced favourite.
    20k bet would have been a win of only a few thousand.
    Lots of conflicting claims don't lend credibility.

    That's how it looks to me and that's putting it mildy


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    #142
    poa
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭poa


    Kohen Grumpy Python wrote: »
    It's 3.58 for this treble today, bit hard to get excited about those kind of treble numerals.

    Maybe liven it up with the NBA's Golden State Warriors 1.53 & Espania 4.33 for a lively 23.7.
    But maybe 'four from five' as Brexit too close to call* and boxing generally too volatile by it's very nature.
    Espania best ideally within in an e/w accum also.

    * close if it's counted properly as no in power wants brexit.

    Am surprised thebadmantipster lad still has 50k followers on twitter.
    - as he spends most of his time apologising to them all.

    Agreed, so I am going with singles. 700 Bremain, 1K Fury, 2K Clinton.
    I would like an accumulator on them but it would need to be value to really pump it up.


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    #143
    poa
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭poa


    mailburner wrote: »
    that would be losing your balls alright


    so it was a syndicate:confused:
    2k in comparison to above hardly a big deal/losing your balls



    That's how it looks to me and that's putting it mildy

    A loss is a loss to me, whether that is say 500 or 10K. I don't like losing.
    2K is 2K and I feel the burn the same as when I lost 12K
    Each to their own though. I am sure some people will say it doesn't matter to them when they lose, but when I lose 2K it burns me same as any loss over the 16 years of gambling. I get the same rush on a winning 500 Euro bet as I do on 2K one. That's just me though, everyone is different.


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    #144
    mailburner
    Registered Users Posts: 23,830 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    agree with fury though and am surprised that 5/4 is available on him (bwin)


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    #145
    poa
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭poa


    mailburner wrote: »
    agree with fury though and am surprised that 5/4 is available on him (bwin)

    Over the years Klitschko has been a cash machine for me. So I backed him odds on favourite 2K and we had an upset. These things happen. So now I a 1K on Fury. The only other time I have backed Fury was v Chisora, and that was a nice 2K win. I think he wins again on points, and the 1.9 is value. I think its a good bet.


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    #146
    mailburner
    Registered Users Posts: 23,830 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    poa wrote: »
    Over the years Klitschko has been a cash machine for me. So I backed him odds on favourite 2K and we had an upset. These things happen. So now I a 1K on Fury. The only other time I have backed Fury was v Chisora, and that was a nice 2K win. I think he wins again on points, and the 1.9 is value. I think its a good bet.

    why are you taking only 1.9 when hes 2.12 on the exchanges and at least evens with a few others including matchbook?
    that would drive me crazy tbh

    for me he only needs to repeat what he did in the first fight to win again and pts looks the obvious one


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    #147
    poa
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭poa


    One of my biggest lucky escapes was BBC sports personality. I was ready to back 10K on Rory McIlroy as he was the favourite. But I got a call from someone with insider knowledge there would be an upset. Lewis Hamilton would win. I couldn't believe this as even on the day his odds were a massive 5.0. McIlroy was odds on favourite and my instinct was this was a dead cert. But reluctantly I backed the 10K on Hamilton convinced it was wrong. And it delivered.
    Upsets do happen, even with odd-on favourites in a 2 horse race like BBC SPOTY. Recently its been a case of Andy Murray v the field with no threats.
    Hurt Locker v Avatar was another one I went against my instincts in the Oscars. Sometimes it pays to back the underdog not the favourite in a 50/50 event.


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    #148
    poa
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭poa


    mailburner wrote: »
    why are you taking only 1.9 when hes 2.12 on the exchanges and at least evens with a few others including matchbook?
    that would drive me crazy tbh

    for me he only needs to repeat what he did in the first fight to win again and pts looks the obvious one

    Because I get a premium tax rate on Betfair's exchange.
    So it actually works out less than 1.9 after tax.
    I can't get 1K on with any of the online bookies as my accounts are limited.
    Paddypower will give me 1K at 1.9 so I took it.
    Sometimes I can't get on at all and have to use friends accounts as I am too known in the bookies.
    I am one hour from the border so sometimes drive to the North and back in Sterling at the same odds.
    Paddypower cashiers use a traffic light rating on customers, and let's just say I have gone from being an amber customer to red quickly.


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    #149
    mailburner
    Registered Users Posts: 23,830 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    poa wrote: »
    Because I get a premium tax rate on Betfair's exchange.
    So it actually works out less than 1.9 after tax.
    I can't get 1K on with any of the online bookies as my accounts are limited.
    Paddypower will give me 1K at 1.9 so I took it.
    Sometimes I can't get on at all and have to use friends accounts as I am too known in the bookies.
    I am one hour from the border so sometimes drive to the North and back in Sterling at the same odds.

    matchbook currently 2.04 and the likes of pinnacle might suit your stakes and surely if you're only doing 3-4 bets per year then they'll hardly be looking out for you


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    #150
    mailburner
    Registered Users Posts: 23,830 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    poa wrote: »
    have gone from being an amber customer to red quickly.

    that doesn't take much in fairness given my own account is limited and my bets weren't big
    on my second pp account because my bank changed from visa to mastercard so using a vpn


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    #151
    poa
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭poa


    mailburner wrote: »
    matchbook currently 2.04 and the likes of pinnacle might suit your stakes and surely if you're only doing 3-4 bets per year then they'll hardly be looking out for you

    I prefer Betfair to Matchbook as they have more liquidity in the markets I focus on; tennis, boxing, politics, boxing.
    I can still get weight on some bookies with new accounts, but it's only for the first bet then it's cents after that.
    I have a few friends I use to back for me, and sometimes drive to new towns to get on or the North.
    The funny thing is, I have never been limited in any of the bookies in the North, even with a run of 2K winning bets over a short period.
    For 2K I typically use the exchange as its less hassle, although the premium tax eats into my winnings.
    For 500 to 1K its Paddypower as on some markets like politics often their odds are good.


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