European Parliament Elections 2024 - Friday, June 7th

MFPM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122121045#Comment_122121045

In the Europeans they'll do nothing and in the locals I'd broadly agree they'll have little impact but I'd be surprised if there are not a couple of people elected, hopefully I'm wrong.

Immigration isn't an issue for whole swathes of the population but it's being stoked up by a combination of a relatively small number of protests protests that have gotten disproportionate coverage and now the MSM are giving it more exposure which has put the centre right parties and the Shinners under pressure and they've all responded badly, Pascal Donohue talking about increased deportations, the OTT response to the canal tents all feeds a narrative that benefits the anti migrant types.

Their transfers will go all over the place, they transfer to each other but anyone perceived to be anti establishment may benefit.

scheister

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122120814#Comment_122120814

Looking at them and note that the Irish people are running an candidate in my area whos YouTube makes my head hurt and seems to have the name of the area is he running in wrong in the video.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122120623#Comment_122120623

Their party names are too similar. They will just spread their vote.

corkie

Interesting pole on twitter for Dublin?

https://twitter.com/PaulTreyvaud/status/1790029295705862178

If anyone comes across one for the South/MNW please share?

Recommendations to elect MEPs for 3 constituencies of Midlands-North West (5 MEPs), South (5 MEPs)

and Dublin (4 MEPs) were laid before the Houses of Parliament on 27 November.

StormForce13

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122091909#Comment_122091909

Maybe not as bizarre when you remember who Daly selected as one of her Parliamentary Assistants!

After carrying out extensive research and consulting a wide circle made up of at least one of her fellow MEPs she decided that Mick Wallace's sprog Fionn was the best candidate to make her cups of tea, fold her tights and polish her shoes for her. A very convenient way to slither around that outrageous ban on MEPs employing family members.

StormForce13

Anyway, I received the election leaflet from the Labour Party candidate for Ireland South in today's post.

The leaflet from Niamh Hourican (who is Green TD Nessa Hourican's much more sensible sister) promises me that ….

"As your MEP I will introduce a European Plan for Affordable, …"

Strangely, Niamh doesn't tell me what her promised European Plan will make affordable. So it could be literally anything - soft drugs, cat food, season tickets to Thomond Park, organic vegetables, or maybe even housing. But who can say? Maybe Niamh isn't sure!

Imagine the cost of printing about 1,300,000 leaflets with that mistake in them!

MFPM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122133792#Comment_122133792

What's interesting about it? A contrarian on X plucks 4 candidates based on odds and starts an X poll on them. He excludes two incumbents who's odds are marginally longer. The only 'interesting' thing here is how followers of Treyvaud on X might vote if they have a vote in Dublin. No idea why that would be of interest though!

cute geoge

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122133792#Comment_122133792

Bring it on , we heading for the watershed moment in time when irish politics will never again be the same !!! Could it be posable no FFG ,SF,Lab or Green MEP elected in Dublin

dulpit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122134058#Comment_122134058

No. With absolute certainty that won't happen.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122133792#Comment_122133792

Twitter polls are, always, completely useless.

They've got even more useless since Elmo took over.

Restaurant Gemma's followers are all going to vote Niall Boylan in that; but likely either don't live in Dublin (or Ireland!), or won't vote in the actual election anyway.

cute geoge

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122134096#Comment_122134096

Are you so sure ,like the referendum's in March nearly everyone had a yes vote predicted and look how that turned out!!!!

MFPM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122134058#Comment_122134058

The only part of that you have right is Labour, they've no chance. SF will top the poll, FF/FG are by no means certain of 1 each but there'll be definitely 1 of them elected. Greens have a chance too.

cute geoge

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122134138#Comment_122134138

So for argument sake we will say 1 SF ,1 or either FF or FG ,I independent Ireland for sure , 1 shootout between 2 independents//Ireland First/Green/FF or FG

MFPM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122134191#Comment_122134191

No. Niall Boylan has a chance, an outside chance, personally I don't see him making it. Ireland First have as much chance as I have and I'm not standing.

Most likely outcome is SF and FG and two from Andrews, Daly, Cuffe and N Boylan.

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122134295#Comment_122134295

I'd be very surprised if Regina does not get elected, FG polling numbers in Dublin are solid and only running one candidate so not been to funky. Lynn obviously is safe.

You don't think the SD candidate or Brid has a chance if Cuffe or/and Daly have a bad night?

Contrary to what we see on twitter Dublin has a lot of left wing voters up for grabs if the incumbents struggle.

I can't make my mind up on Boylan, the name recognition is good, but are their actual votes on the ground for him and where are the transfers coming from?

MFPM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122134387#Comment_122134387

FG should win, but the government is not popular and Reggie isn't a great candidate, she's brutal, but as you say it's a one-candidate strategy and Middle-Class voters tend to vote in EE and she should get in.

FF were polling at 11% in the recent poll in Dublin, that's lower than Andrews polled in 2019 - again a one-candidate strategy, you'd think he'd make it, but I don't think he's guaranteed.

If Daly is ahead of the rest of the left (including Labour & Soc Dems) like in 2019, she will take a lot of their transfers including a decent chunk from SF, I think she will be there or there about, of course the same applies to B.Smith - Ogle hasn't a prayer, the Soc Dems might do OK, but Labour are far too damaged - there's no reason for people to get behind Labour in any serious numbers.

The Greens will poll reasonably well, Cuffe is a better bet than O'Sullivan in Ireland South. He'll get that middle-class vote the Greens get and will pull transfers from FG/FF and then will also pull some from Lab/Soc Dems and others on the Left.

N. Boylan is the unknown - he'll hope to pull in the anti-migrant vote and is likely to be the leading candidate from that milieu so he will pull whatever transfers there are from thugs like Dwyer, the big issue he and the racist right face is that they need working class votes in big numbers (areas like Coolock, Finglas, East Wall that have had protests) and the turn-out in many of those areas is traditionally low and not in the numbers they'd need to get elected - that's my big doubt.

I'm assuming there will be a poll on each of the Euro constituencies in the coming weeks, they will give us a clearer picture of what to expect.

gmisk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122134295#Comment_122134295

I don't think it's an outside chance at this stage, Boylan is third in the betting odds currently. I wouldn't vote for him in a million years but to each their own...

MFPM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122135284#Comment_122135284

I'm not sure betting odds are a fully accurate guide to voters intentions.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122133792#Comment_122133792

The biggest problem for any real world pollster is getting a sample that is representative of the wider electorate.

That dude was hugely against Covid lockdowns as he was a restauranter. As such he built up a following of anti-lockdown, anti-vax and general anti-establishment types. There's nothing inherently wrong with that but it means that any poll that he puts out is going to disproportionately have that section of the electorate in it (and is effectively meaningless as a result).

scheister

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122135389#Comment_122135389

the odds can be way off based as much on money and liquidity as voter intentions. Lorna Bogue's odds have been cut from 100/1 to 33/1. But I don't think that is on the back of her support increasing more likely people putting money think as a long shot. Thinks 33's is a more accurate price for her.

Also John waters started out at 2/1 gone out to 8/1 now I would still think that price is wrong 25/1 or 33/1 would better reflect his changes. if he polls any higher then 3% I would be surprised. He polled 1.48% for GE20

Brussels Sprout

Regarding Clare Daly's chances. I've made my opinion of her behaviour in the European parliament clear several times on this thread and in other threads so I'm not going to rehash that but just look at it more analytically.

I do not see her getting elected for several reasons:

1. In 2019 SF had a shocker. They got 11.7% nationally in the European elections. In Dublin that meant that Lynn Boylan lost her seat. She went from 23.6% FPVs in 2014 to 10.8% FPVs in 2019. Sure, some of her vote went to Ciaran Cuffe but a lot of it went to Clare Daly. SF are not going to get 11.7% this time. Even on that bad day in 2019 they got roughly 2/3 of what they had been consistently polling at. With them at around 25% in recent polls even a bad day like that would have them in the high teens. Boylan is almost certainly going to get elected and it's quite likely votes that she lost to Daly in 2019 will come back to her.
2. Has Daly likely grown her voter base over the past 5 years? It is hard to think that she has. She would have hoovered up the hard-left transfers in 2019 so they're already in the bag. That's the choir that she is preaching to when she rails against the EU, NATO and the USA at every opportunity. At the same time that's likely putting off a lot of the middle class Soc Dem, Labour, Green type voters that abound in Dublin when it comes to lower order preferences that prove crucial when it comes to transfers in such a massive field election.
3. Even though she's seen as far-left I think that she will lose voters to some of the far-right candidates. That's because at some point both of those are simply anti-establishment votes. 5 years ago people furious with the status quo were willing to go with Daly because they were impressed with her standing up to the bullying Gardai during the Maurice McCabe scandal. Now that voter might instead be furious about increasing levels of migration and choose to vote far-right instead. If they do there's no guarantee that that vote transfers back to her.

All of the above applies to Mick Wallace in Ireland South too.

MFPM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122136420#Comment_122136420

There's some merit to this but you're allowing your pejorative opinion cloud your objectivity. Indeed your point about Wallace illustrates that more graphically, no analysis on his constituency just lazy rinse and repeat on Dublin.

1. SF vote dropped by 13% of course Daly would have pulled some of that, but I haven't seen any figures to suggest she pulled massively more than others from it. The GP vote went up by 5%, the Soc Dems took 5.6% and FF/FG were up 3% so all parties benefited from the SF collapse. Boylan will top the poll this time, the bulk of no 2s will go to Doolan but he won't be in the running for a seat and in my view Daly will gain significantly from their transfers though Smith will too. The plethora of left candidates will add to her transfers too.
2. As for growing her base, perhaps she hasn't but the situation has changed in the last few months. The Israel slaughter in Gaza has validated much of what she has been saying in her critique of NATO, US imperialism and the EU. Their so called concern for democracy and human rights and victims of war has been utterly exposed by their implacable support for Netanyahu. I don't think you should underestimate just how much damage Frau Genocide has done to the EU, she has laid bare their rotten hypocrisy. Zelensky's rotten support for Israel won't go unnoticed too. There is no doubt she will suffer some kick back in the 'rugby centrist dad' heartlands of South Dublin who go along with the EU's hypocrisy but I'm not convinced that will be detrimental.
3. Losing votes to the far right might happen but that's far more likely to affect SF, interestingly you haven't even mentioned that, indeed it will affect all the main parties and I would argue will affect Daly far less than the others and indeed her 'anti establishment' perception as you call it will benefit her, if you're voting Niall Boylan 1, you're not voting FF, FG, Lab, GP, Soc Dem 2.

Daly has a real battle on her hands, I'd rate her chances no more than 50/50 but she can win.

Danzy

40k votes on the first count for Daly could set her up for the last seat.

She has a strong enough base built up and there is a sizeable enough left wing vote in Dublin.

With her positions on Gaza and Ukraine, and those stories in the news for the next month she'll be getting a strong turnout and transfers from across that side.

I'd prefer to eat broken glass than see her reelected but it will be there or there abouts.

Quitelife

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122134387#Comment_122134387

FG will poll well in Dublin relatively speaking 20-25% , there is a lot of rich people in Dublin who will vote Fine Gael ensuring Regina her seat.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122136838#Comment_122136838

"Pejorative opinion cloud" - In a post where I didn't use a single pejorative (unlike your response I might add).

The reason I didn't go through the same process with Wallace is because it's remarkably similar. I'd literally have been repeating the same points but with different SF MEP/candidate names.

The only thing I'll agree with you on is that von Dr Leyen's shameless support of Israel's genocidal actions plays into the hands of candidates like Daly. If she manages to save her seat it'll be after riding a wave of fury about what's happening in Palestine.

MFPM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122137719#Comment_122137719

All your posts mentioning Daly including the one I responded to contain pejorative language, you've laid your bias out graphically many times.

Even your 'riding a wave of fury' jibe illustrates my point further. Palestine will not be the reason Daly will or won't be elected, not sure it'll play a huge role in the election but it has exposed the hypocrisy of the EU (as you acknowledge) and others and confirms some of the just criticisms she has made.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122137836#Comment_122137836

What pejorative language did I use in my original post? Unless you consider the term "hard-left" to be pejorative (in which case you're reaching) I don't see any.

corkie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122116897#Comment_122116897

Just registered for the above webinar and will hopefully be tuning in after all.

Reminder 7pm tonight.

https://twitter.com/CNaM_ie/status/1788577643413004393

robwen

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/european-elections-polls-show-barry-cowen-could-fall-foul-of-partys-split-vote-while-mick-wallace-faces-scrap-to-get-back-in/a2103928342.html

Some mysterious private polling data

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122133792#Comment_122133792

It is neither a pole or a poll.

Its a fella doing a Xer vote 🤣