European Parliament Elections 2024 - Friday, June 7th

MFPM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122142682#Comment_122142682

Yep, and not a single figure given in the article, not 1! Who on earth sees a poll and doesn't give some figures? Soc Dems challenging O'Sullivan/Wallace - what figure are they on?

Mullooly doing well in the Midlands, whoa, big surprise there but how well, what figure is he polling?

Aodhan O'Riordain pushing for a seat in Dublin, I'd be interested to see those figures.

There is nothing in this article that anyone following the elections isn't aware of, this sounds like Sheahan has sat down with one of his FF or FG chums and got some info.

I suspect there'll be an IT poll next week and the week after with actual figures.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122143073#Comment_122143073

The only thing that the Indo confirmed was that it was a private poll.

It reads like a Cowen press release with a State wide storyline to cover.

MFPM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122143148#Comment_122143148

Yeah, it read like that.

MFPM

The RTE TV debates for the EE will be interesting, 70+ candidates obviously cannot all be accommodated. They have decided on three main debates, one for each constituency. They'll have other radio debates, and TWIP seems to be planning debates too - not sure about Virgin's plans.

Upfront with Katie Hannon Election Debate (Midlands Northwest) - Monday 20th May, on RTÉ One & RTÉ Player 

Prime Time Election Debate (Ireland South) - Thursday 30th May, on RTÉ One & RTÉ Player 

Prime Time Election Debate (Dublin) - Tuesday 4th June, on RTÉ One & RTÉ Player

There will be a maximum of 8 candidates in each debate. It'll be interesting to see how they work it out, the Soc Dems are already kicking up (they have a point) about being excluded from South and MNW.

In Dublin, the three incumbents Cuffe, Daly and Andrews will have to be included, then FG and SF (LB), that's 5 then the Soc Dems is 6 - I assume Lab have to be there and Bríd Smith, but they'll want N Boylan because he'll be good for social media clicks.

The other constituencies will be harder due to the multiple candidates - Walsh and Carberry, Cowen, Chambers and Blaney - they'll all kill each other to get on.

Danzy

Saw posters in Mayo today, all 3 FF candidates on it.

Thought of this.

Superman 2 from the 80s

Barry Cowen is surely General Zod.

scheister

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122143719#Comment_122143719

This is always the fun part of it all trying to select the people that are allowed. If I recall in the past those not on live put a video on live.

Perhaps RTE do polling themselves and go with the top 8 in those polls or top 8 according to boylesports.

Alternatively each Dail party that is running get a spot as well as sitting MEP's add in high profile others if space. Don't think any party is running two sitting MEP's in the same area.

In all options could you limit to one person per party.

No idea is perfect if sitting MEP's get preference Maria Walsh gets on ahead of Nina Carbury who is polling higher. If going the betting route I think in south the 10th and 11th in the list get on if limited to one per party.

dulpit

It won't be based on betting odds anyway. Those odds are nothing to do with the likelihood of somebody being elected and are all to do with what way people have betted.

You have to assume some sort of poll to pick the candidates.

Brussels Sprout

I'd be very wary about reading too much into polls with a relatively small sample size especially over the two geographically larger constituencies (and especially Midlands-North West….how the hell do you get a representative sample from such a huge constituency).

With that being said:

• A little surprised to see both Flanagan and Mullooly deemed solid as I thought that they'd be competing directly for chunks of the same vote base. Cowen getting screwed by having two running mates is the least surprising thing in there
• Kelly, Kelleher + 1 SF being a lock in Munster is also expected. That leaves two seats up for grabs. Surprising to think that the Soc Dem candidate might be in the picture. She's a relative unknown. I'd definitely need to see more polling to believe that
• Dublin being a Battle Royale, with the exception of Boylan, also checks out. They have 6 others vying for the remaining 3 seats although it's hard to believe that O'Riordan has a serious shot there.
• Peter Casey didn't even get a mention in MNW. I wonder will he even get on the debate stage there.
• No mention of any of the far-right candidates - It would have been a big surprise if there was. That vote's going to go in so many directions given the huge number of candidates running - it'll be interesting to see who are the last few candidates left standing and ultimately where their votes go to (I'm guessing Toibin, McNamara, N. Boylan and Mullooly)

MFPM

Following on from today's actual poll with figures in the IT it seems we may have some fugures on the Euros tomorrow. They've certainly gathered figures, interesting if they release figures for all three constituencies or it'll be spread out over days.

MFPM

The Tonight Show on Virgin have a Euro debate from the Dublin Constituency, Cuffe, Andrews, Daly Doherty and Doolan only.

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122146784#Comment_122146784

Caught small bits but was distracted due to work/real life etc

Clare seemed to have a good night, Andrews didn't have a good night, he's far from dead but he's not in a great place at all.

I was surprised to see no Neil Boylan, ratings wise seems an odd exclusion.

MFPM

It wasn't a great debate, the moderator wasn't at it at all. It started with the attempted assassination in Slovakia and then brock effectively invited Andrews to smear Daly, even though he seemed thrown, he had no choice then to repeat his slurs and Daly savaged him, he never really recovered and was by far the poorest in the debate. Daly was the standout, Cuffe was good, Doolan was fine - he was on here to boost his profile as Lynn Boylan has the seat already - Doherty was her usual self but, she had no major clangers apart from committing to vote for Frau Genocide in the new parliament.

B2021M

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122147539#Comment_122147539

Serbia??

MFPM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122147665#Comment_122147665

Oops!

Brussels Sprout

Irish Times will have their Euro polls in tomorrow's paper which means they'll be available online at midnight.

MFPM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122151053#Comment_122151053

I thought that but they don't update their website until 6am from what I can see.

L1011

Ah for the days of Broadsheet being non-insane (and still existing, obviously) and sending one of their contributors to a 24h shop to get the papers as they landed.

I seem to remember people in Cork being able to get the SBP at ~10:30pm on Saturday, as its printed there, and people racing for that for polls during one of the previous election cycles (2014? May have been pre-Broadsheet so could have been 2009 or 2011)

MFPM

MNW debate with Katie Hannon on Monday.

8 candidates - Walsh, Casey, McHugh, Flanagan, McManus, Cowen, O'Reilly Tobin.

No Soc Dems, No Lab. Also looks like FF/FG/SF putting forward their favoured candidates and those most likely to be elected.

Hope it's better than last night's mess.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122151169#Comment_122151169

They were discussing it on their podcast today and mentioned that they'd be out later tonight - which I took to mean midnight

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122151217#Comment_122151217

Very strange that Mullooly isn't attending. As someone with a real shot at a seat I presume he must have been at least invited.

I like Saoirse McHugh but including her seems like an odd choice. Yes she came 7th in 2019 in that same constituency but that was the high point of her political journey. She came 8th in a 4-seater in the 2020 election, left the Green Party and hasn't really been heard from since. I can't imagine she has a hope of winning a seat this time out.

MFPM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122151606#Comment_122151606

Oh, that's good thanks for that. I hadn't listened to the podcast yet.

MFPM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122151653#Comment_122151653

I thought the same about Mullooly. I read or heard somewhere that attendance is based on incumbents and those exceeding 5% last time out which would perhaps explain why McHugh and O'Reilly are in this debate. McHugh was GP in 2019. She's decent and consistent but outside of X she's had little profile in recent years and won't come near to the vote she got then.

corkie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122151053#Comment_122151053

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/editorials/2024/05/17/the-irish-times-view-on-the-european-election-opinion-poll-a-close-contest-ahead/ ~~ Archive Link

Is that the poll your discussing?

MFPM

Polls are interesting though the 3 main parties as expected will take a seat each in each constituency.

Dublin Cuffe and Daly down from 2019 as expected, B Smith doing OK and probably pulling from Daly. The main surprise is Labour, seems high not withstanding Dublin is Labour's only real base. FG should win but they'll be concerned with Doherty's performance. Long way to go.

MNW seems the hardest to call, Flanagan not as high as I expected, Gildernew outpolling McNanus too. Walsh and Carberry neck and neck.

South - O'Sullivan and Wallace are likely gone but hard to call the last two seats here but 3 weeks to go.

Brussels Sprout

Some very interesting numbers in that poll:

• FF & FG being surprisingly resilient in all constituencies. Lisa Chambers in 4th in MNW was a real surprise. I guess she's only going to turn the dial up on her recent questionable statements now. Barry Andrews with really strong numbers in Dublin too. Sean Kelly and Billy Kelleher getting elected on the first count if they keep up those numbers.
• Independent Ireland candidates with a poor enough showing for two of their candidates (5% for Boylan and 0% for Punch). Mullooly is in with a shout alright. Him missing out on that debate is really going to sting now though especially since he's polling higher than many people who were invited.
• Speaking of which - Peadar Toibin not doing great. On these numbers himself and the Independent Ireland candidates are going to need to be very transfer friendly to all of the various far-right vote that is being scattered to the wind. I expect them to ratchet up the anti-migration talk as a result.
• Wallace and O'Sullivan look in dire trouble of losing their seats in Ireland South
• O' Riordan doing surprisingly well. If he can stay ahead of Cuffe then you'd imagine a lot of that vote will transfer to him and could get him over the line
• Could be a similar scenario brewing between Daly and Smith although their combined vote (12%) is still very far short of a quote (20%)
• McNamara will likely to be disappointed to only be at 4% in Ireland South. There will be a big battle for the last two seats there though and he's right in the thick of it
• None of the far-right candidates are registering. Most seem to be on 0-2%. The one exception is Derek Bligh, the leader of one of the new parties, in Ireland South who's on 4% which actually puts him ahead of 2 sitting MEPs.

Still 3 weeks to go so it's all early days yet but I'm sure a lot of minds have been focused this morning.

cute geoge

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122152480#Comment_122152480

I am both delighted but very suprised with Derek Blighe polling ,It surely is a boost to him to even get mentioned that he is actually running for a mep in the papers .Is he the dark horse ,he has built a big following on social media and if he gets a break on mainstream media and gets his mane out there he will be in the shake up .Hard to believe Kelly ,Kelliher and O riordan in Dublin are going so well !!

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122152480#Comment_122152480

I' very skeptical. Chambers is the obvious WTF ,,,speaking to some FF insiders they are saying she is dead and she was nowhere on the poll released Wednesday night. Yates and Matt on his podcast and the other poll said the three candidate strategy was killing them and it was Cowen or bust, FF are polling poorly so no idea how Chambers has somehow flying.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122152798#Comment_122152798

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122152480#Comment_122152480

Definitely interesting reading. One thing to keep in mind is that there was a large cohort of undecideds (~20%?) who will have a large impact on the end result.

I would hazard a guess that undecideds will favour anti-government parties, as if you supported any of govt parties you would already be sure at this stage - it's an easy decision, as opposed to deciding who to vote for out of the myriad of independent and lesser party candidates.

Brussels Sprout

Just thinking about that poll a bit more and those numbers for SF in MNW are pretty damn bad.

That constituency contains Donegal, Cavan, Monaghan and Louth, which would be their heartland in the Republic and yet their total % is a mere 14%. For a party getting 25% in national general election polls that's a suspiciously low number.

Anyway, this is pivotal:

The Undecideds already made a mockery of the polls in the Referenda a few months ago. It will be interesting to see what way they break in this campaign.

CrabRevolution

https://www.thejournal.ie/public-fund-for-eu-journalism-in-ireland-6380383-May2024/

More worry by officialdom that the electorate are too stupid to know who they should be voting for.

A cynic reading through the article would think that it's quite the coincidence that they're suddenly fretting about this only now that there's likely to be a rightward lurch in the EU elections this year.

But then they literally just say it themselves at the end;

"Coleman reasoned that these resources in the media are particularly needed as the next make up of the European Parliament is likely to “push back” on progressive legislation around immigration, climate change and have more sceptics of the EU gaining seats."

It's weird to see members of the media so openly declare that they don't believe that differences in policy and political views even exist any more; to them there's just a single unquestionably correct take on every topic, as natural and innate as the laws of physics (and which they, by chance, happen to share), and those who oppose this conclusion are just divisive evildoers.