The accelerating fall in Sinn Féin support

Annasopra

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121875478#Comment_121875478

Sure their TD from Cork Donncha OLaoghaire even said that on radio and admitted there was no strong support for them for Yes Yes.

Annasopra

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121876128#Comment_121876128

Oh absolutely and in the middle of it all Sinn Fein rolled out even more cynicism - they saw government was losing the care referendum because of disability and jumped cynically onto this bandwagon

https://twitter.com/PearseDoherty/status/1764702374575161532?t=TorgS9_60InsDd7-Q0OZ8Q&s=19

tom23

I think actually preferred them when they said nothing. Bulshitters.

Annasopra

And of course in a cynical twist SF now says they wouldn't rerun the referendum. Absolute and utter bullshitters. Sit on the fence and jump off the fence when they know its safe.

Galwayguy35

The one that got elected back in 2020 even though she was on holidays at the time might actually have to do a bit of canvassing when the next GE rolls around.

Another problem they will have in an election is they aren't transfer friendly, thats what happened to the candidate in my area last time around.

He got 7000 first preferences and had nowhere to go after that.

2 years ago they were full sure they would wipe the floor with the other parties but its hard to know what way it will go now for a few different reasons.

It could be argued that a few hecklers posting videos to X and Tiktok won't make any difference but these people have influence with voters in working class urban areas the shinners need for votes.

baldbear

Their stance or non statement on economic migrants coming in abusing the asylum process is killing them.

Galwayguy35

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121880841#Comment_121880841

Oh they hate talking about immigration but whether they like it or not its going to be a hot topic coming up to the local and general elections.

Bigger problem for the shinners as well compared to other left leaning parties like the Soc Dems who are also soft on it because so many AS have been moved into less affluent areas which were a gold mine for votes for SF up until now.

qwertyuiopa

Sinn Fein are fúcked.

They've been completely taken over by the likes of Mary Lou, Eoin Ó Broin, Lynn Boylan etc who are all completely down the right on rabbit hole. They can never change, as u turning now would go against everything they've ever said and everything they stand for.

The old school Shinners have all been pushed aside at this stage, as their 'traditional' views were no longer deemed progressive enough for the new cabal.

They've completely abandoned the working classes who they just presumed would continue voting for them. Unfortunately for them, the ordinary people have copped on to them now.

They backed the government during the ridiculous covid lockdowns.

They backed the government on the hate speech laws.

They've backed the government on immigration.

They backed the government on the referendums.

I voted Sinn Fein for years, but never again.

You reap what you sow

Denny61

I see all the feelin fallers and fine girls tripping over them self's on here to put it all on the shinners ..even more so now to get them in to power and clean up the mess our country is in.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121881086#Comment_121881086

I have read this 3 times now and still no idea what you are trying to say?

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121880166#Comment_121880166

What was one of the TD's called Sinn Fein, the "flip flop party", sounds about right

Finty Lemon

Wait until ultimate bluffer Eoin O'Broin's housing "plan" is subjected to proper scrutiny. It will be a very unpalatable model for most people once they get a better understanding of the detail. All in the name of meeting some magic affordability figure.

I wonder is Michael McDowell up for the job of tearing it apart? He could do it in under 2 minutes I reckon.

Dav010

Epic fail on Mary Lou’s part. Instead of saying SF would have to wait for the results of the referendum before considering their response in government, she bolted out of the stall and said SF would rerun the referendum. Now her own party members are slapping her down.

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/sinn-fein-wont-re-run-family-and-care-referendums-if-we-get-into-government-matt-carthy-td/a372819168.html

gym_imposter

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121880812#Comment_121880812

Ann Rabbitte and Ciaran Cannon are both mediocre so the SF lad might have a fighting chance?

SharkMX

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121880812#Comment_121880812

This is a position they are happy to be in. If they were in government they wouldnt know what to do with themselves. They want to remain sitting on a fence shouting at those in power. Thats all they can do.

Kermit.de.frog

Latest poll

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1771662174336725337

No sign of the decline in popularity stopping yet.

lizzyjane

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058335203/the-accelerating-fall-in-sinn-fein-support

Never ever would I vote for these traitors again. Give me FG or FF any day of the week at least you know what to expect from those chancers. The working class in Ireland badly need a new political party to vote for.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121935285#Comment_121935285

Ahh poor old Sinn Fein, I did say coming up towards elections people would start to take more interest in their policies and it would start to fall apart. Interesting it started a lot earlier than expected but it is their policies which is the issue.

So who does the revolt vote move to? Independents? another group of trying to give the right answer to every questions. Hurlers in the ditch v2.0

road_high

SF got an easy pass in 2020- they were the anyone but the government choice and people just voted for them in protest: no such chance this time

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121935428#Comment_121935428

You might say all that but they will be the biggest party and will spurred on by their chief objective a UI referendum north and south (not housing) try to cobble together the greatest Spaghetti mix of an unstable government the country has ever seen

Dangerous times ahead and all borne out of greedy voters with unrealistic expectations

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121940168#Comment_121940168

Once they have to admit it will bring about taxes, high ones at that for a United Ireland it will soon come to an end that angle

Try telling all the ones on social welfare who are sitting at home, more than capable of working, that it will also mean a cut to their social welfare as well

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121940168#Comment_121940168

I think you are overestimating the importance of a United Ireland to the electorate, anything which would involve higher taxes, a significant drain on the public purse and heightened security issues will not appeal to voters, especially now.

I suspect ML will not be banging that particular drum at election time.

road_high

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121940168#Comment_121940168

“Greedy voters with unrealistic expectations “- is that because they no longer fall for SFs complete BS? Silly selfish people- they don’t know what’s good for them

Wanderer78

...oh i think we ll all be surprised how quickly the electorate will swing towards sf on the day itself, i think the referendum was a very big surprise, this could happen again on the day, and polls may not show this at all, as there is now a significant rise in last minute deciders.....

road_high

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121940238#Comment_121940238

Yes but it’ll be in the opposite direction to this- momentum’s never swing in a totally different direction on election day and unless SF radically alter the rapid decline will just continue. People aren’t going to randomly turn around at the ballot box and “oh silly me, I was wrong and now I’m going to vote SF”. It doesn’t work like that

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121940250#Comment_121940250

how do you know how a couple of million people are gonna vote, polls cant even pick up that?

nobody knows how this is really gonna pan out, including me, but its very likely that some will in fact move towards sf, and others away from the three main parties

the referendum has shown us many interesting things, theres clearly a very strong move away from government parties, theres clearly a very strong anti-government vote out there, many last minute deciders, etc etc

what are you talking about, voters being silly at the ballot box, what the hell are you on about???

...i.e. this could be one of the biggest voter upheavals the state has ever experienced, as this is also occurring in many other countries, again, we re currently experiencing a major anti-establishment upheaval across many countries, and it has now begun here to, its unfortunate that its sf here, but thats what it is, we now have to prepare for the possibility of sf lead government, more than likely with ff....

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121940283#Comment_121940283

What's occurring in other countries is a shift to the right, not to the left. SF are losing support as they are seen as similar to FF/FG on immigration.

ToweringPerformance

I live in a working class area in Dublin and the reason many people around here lost faith in SF is their immigration stance. Unless that changes they aren't getting into government it's really that simple.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121940283#Comment_121940283

The tendency for last minute rushes is for an emerging trend to strengthen and take on a runaway position. People like to associate with success.

The evident large trends at the moment are away from Sinn Fein and towards independents. My expectation is that if anything these trends will accelerate.

However, there are smaller trends to note. The drift away from government parties appears to have halted somewhat, and a slight drift back has begun. There is a possibility that this may accelerate. Look at the two most recent polls. FG's best performance in one was 22%, SF's worst performance in the other was 25%, if both of those were true, the gap is down to 3%. The gap was nearly 20% at one point.

For FG to be performing above their general election performance at this point in the cycle is actually a good outcome, especially in the context of the doom and gloom for them in the media and on social media.

Finally, no sign of this yet, but it would only take one climate event to swing a certain number of voters back to the Greens. That doesn't have to be even a climate event here but one that gets wider publicity.

Water John

Independents will do well in the GE. That's fine if the elected Independent has a specific set of values or knows what he/she can achieve with any possible Govn't. Mightn't be everyone's cup of tea, but Michael Lowry is one that regularly does a deal with Govnt's and sticks to it. The Independent who's all over the place, really doesn't do their constituents or the people of the country, any favours.