The accelerating fall in Sinn Féin support

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121935285#Comment_121935285

Ahh poor old Sinn Fein, I did say coming up towards elections people would start to take more interest in their policies and it would start to fall apart. Interesting it started a lot earlier than expected but it is their policies which is the issue.

So who does the revolt vote move to? Independents? another group of trying to give the right answer to every questions. Hurlers in the ditch v2.0

road_high

SF got an easy pass in 2020- they were the anyone but the government choice and people just voted for them in protest: no such chance this time

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121935428#Comment_121935428

You might say all that but they will be the biggest party and will spurred on by their chief objective a UI referendum north and south (not housing) try to cobble together the greatest Spaghetti mix of an unstable government the country has ever seen

Dangerous times ahead and all borne out of greedy voters with unrealistic expectations

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121940168#Comment_121940168

Once they have to admit it will bring about taxes, high ones at that for a United Ireland it will soon come to an end that angle

Try telling all the ones on social welfare who are sitting at home, more than capable of working, that it will also mean a cut to their social welfare as well

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121940168#Comment_121940168

I think you are overestimating the importance of a United Ireland to the electorate, anything which would involve higher taxes, a significant drain on the public purse and heightened security issues will not appeal to voters, especially now.

I suspect ML will not be banging that particular drum at election time.

road_high

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121940168#Comment_121940168

“Greedy voters with unrealistic expectations “- is that because they no longer fall for SFs complete BS? Silly selfish people- they don’t know what’s good for them

Wanderer78

...oh i think we ll all be surprised how quickly the electorate will swing towards sf on the day itself, i think the referendum was a very big surprise, this could happen again on the day, and polls may not show this at all, as there is now a significant rise in last minute deciders.....

road_high

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121940238#Comment_121940238

Yes but it’ll be in the opposite direction to this- momentum’s never swing in a totally different direction on election day and unless SF radically alter the rapid decline will just continue. People aren’t going to randomly turn around at the ballot box and “oh silly me, I was wrong and now I’m going to vote SF”. It doesn’t work like that

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121940250#Comment_121940250

how do you know how a couple of million people are gonna vote, polls cant even pick up that?

nobody knows how this is really gonna pan out, including me, but its very likely that some will in fact move towards sf, and others away from the three main parties

the referendum has shown us many interesting things, theres clearly a very strong move away from government parties, theres clearly a very strong anti-government vote out there, many last minute deciders, etc etc

what are you talking about, voters being silly at the ballot box, what the hell are you on about???

...i.e. this could be one of the biggest voter upheavals the state has ever experienced, as this is also occurring in many other countries, again, we re currently experiencing a major anti-establishment upheaval across many countries, and it has now begun here to, its unfortunate that its sf here, but thats what it is, we now have to prepare for the possibility of sf lead government, more than likely with ff....

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121940283#Comment_121940283

What's occurring in other countries is a shift to the right, not to the left. SF are losing support as they are seen as similar to FF/FG on immigration.

ToweringPerformance

I live in a working class area in Dublin and the reason many people around here lost faith in SF is their immigration stance. Unless that changes they aren't getting into government it's really that simple.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121940283#Comment_121940283

The tendency for last minute rushes is for an emerging trend to strengthen and take on a runaway position. People like to associate with success.

The evident large trends at the moment are away from Sinn Fein and towards independents. My expectation is that if anything these trends will accelerate.

However, there are smaller trends to note. The drift away from government parties appears to have halted somewhat, and a slight drift back has begun. There is a possibility that this may accelerate. Look at the two most recent polls. FG's best performance in one was 22%, SF's worst performance in the other was 25%, if both of those were true, the gap is down to 3%. The gap was nearly 20% at one point.

For FG to be performing above their general election performance at this point in the cycle is actually a good outcome, especially in the context of the doom and gloom for them in the media and on social media.

Finally, no sign of this yet, but it would only take one climate event to swing a certain number of voters back to the Greens. That doesn't have to be even a climate event here but one that gets wider publicity.

Water John

Independents will do well in the GE. That's fine if the elected Independent has a specific set of values or knows what he/she can achieve with any possible Govn't. Mightn't be everyone's cup of tea, but Michael Lowry is one that regularly does a deal with Govnt's and sticks to it. The Independent who's all over the place, really doesn't do their constituents or the people of the country, any favours.

tom23

Very simple... most of the working class areas have seen a huge increase in IPA centres. The fact that Sinn Fein have made no official comment on it means they haven't the square root of 6 hopes of getting into government.

road_high

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121940330#Comment_121940330

The anger is palpable- Mary Lou can’t walk around working class areas in Dublin without a near Lynch mob baying for her. This ain’t how you become Taoiseach in any way

road_high

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121940677#Comment_121940677

They have indeed- their support for them has been very clear. You’re a racist if you say and think otherwise

road_high

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121880812#Comment_121880812

That won’t happen again- thing is once you get elected you soon get found out. SF have been the most inept and underwhelming opposition the Dáil has ever seen. I’m only amazed their support is still around 25%.

gym_imposter

SF are really looking like proper flakes these days, flip flopping now on the hate speech bill

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121940737#Comment_121940737

They just have to be a better choice than FG or FF, neither party has any interest in housing, in day to day issues.

It's a pity that SF are throwing it away with its going along with the extreme Free market, anti worker scale of inward migration.

There is a danger of SF become a party of and for ideological pure middle class snobs.

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121940330#Comment_121940330

Oh you can bet your bottom dollar it will change in time for the General election like all the other pirouette's in their policies

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121940331#Comment_121940331

Hard to disagree with that

gym_imposter

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121940771#Comment_121940771

SF rightfully knew they needed to win over the media if they were ever going to enter government, going Woke ensured this and also gained them middle class leftist votes which Labour used to own, unfortunately it meant they shed support from their traditional working class base

They aren't near as socially liberal in the north

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121940816#Comment_121940816

To a degree but the leadership and especially the advisers in Leinster hse and Parnell Sq are like that and have always been like that.

The workers party/Marxist types vs the ordinary centre left economically and nationalist type.

ToweringPerformance

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121940773#Comment_121940773

We'll see. They are actively been told to take a hike on doorsteps around here. They'd 3 solid votes from my household a couple of years ago that's gone now.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121940773#Comment_121940773

It won't it is a religious tenet for many in the party and especially among those with power.

The working class, everyone, can go fu68 themselves for their wrong think.

gym_imposter

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121940832#Comment_121940832

Woke isn't Marxist, it's very comfortable with capitalism

tom23

won’t happen middle class have ideological left liberalism with soc dems and the totally useless labour party. Sinn Fein have peaked - it’s all down hill quickly unless they show quickly they have irish electorate best interests at heart instead of obsessing with showing solidarity to the poor unfortunates of the world.

Sweet.Science

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121940773#Comment_121940773

It cant . A lot of the 25% they current have are pro open border immigration .

Sweet.Science

I think from here on out it will be extremely difficult for a Government to form and if it does, to last any longer than a year.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121940854#Comment_121940854

No. In fact they are opposite yet most of the radical left today is woke.

If you believe that there is no such thing as society, only economic units and that driving growth is more important than any thing, then you can be woke as well, less cognitive dissonance there.