"average Dublin house prices should fall to ‘the €300,000 mark" according to Many Lou McD.

micosoft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121518630#Comment_121518630

The CSO projections. Not fantasy SF land. Why is it so hard for people to validate publicly available information. Combination of life expectancy, natural population growth and immigration that we need to sustain our economy AND social care systems.

Fake history on house building rates. We are building vastly more housing today than we did in the fifties, sixties or seventies and the state did not have some form of building agency - it outsourced to builders in the vast number of cases. Moreover we have totally different standards of building and much more focus on Dublin. We also learned that building sink estates like Ballymun and large creates even more problems so we now build mixed developments.

Frank Bullitt

I mean, she is right, but actually getting them to that price? Yeah, not going to happen.

micosoft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121518704#Comment_121518704

Also land costs. We aren't building it anymore. And many of the talking heads fail to acknowledge that Imperial Cities like Vienna and bombed out cities like Berlin are not reasonable comparators where the state through edict owns the land. Major projects like moving Dublin Port up the coast to free up land is much more important than trying to crash the economy to reduce house prices as some seem to want or the bizarre Year Zero Khmer Rouge approach of sending Civil Servants out to build houses in the fields.

whatnext

Does anyone on here understand or have they noticed the presence of the word average in all the quoted figures.

some are less, some are more. A simple mathematical fact is more will be less than the average than above.

sometimes it’s very easy to see how the looney left and far right can get a strangle hold when people gloss over what they think they have read and accept it as fact and then go on to perpetuate this interpretation to even more people.

BillyHaelyRaeCyrus

Im sorry to seem like a broken record. But Ive been asking this for a long time and the answers people give are always about upskilling or moving out of Dublin which is not viable it would mean not having any low paid jobs in Dublin (which would just double current house prices anyway)

300k is still out of reach out over 50% of the population. So what will happen to half the people who cant buy at those rates in the long term ie the urban working class? Are we accepting that people are just going to live at home until their 50 or house share into their 70s? And then what will happen in 30 years when todays live at home/renters retire unable to pay to rent a room anymore?

micosoft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121518682#Comment_121518682

Scrapping the property tax lands them on the extreme libertarian end of the spectrum of dismantling the state. Both the right and the left both believe in wealth/property taxes. This idea that we have a right/left orientation in Ireland when we have a less/more populist dimension. Our failure to invest in water infrastructure has not gone magically away either.

Tombo2001

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121517967#Comment_121517967

Possibly so - maybe she is being honest about what people will get when they vote SF.

Wonder why she singled out Dublin? Is the housing crisis only in Dublin? Is SF not (famously) and all-Ireland party?

Also, maybe explain why SF didnt employ this strategem whilst actually in govt in NI; where there is also a housing crisis.

Finally - how did she segue from Robbie Keane to this?

Tombo2001

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121518789#Comment_121518789

the honest truth?

People who arent directly affected by the housing crisis dont really think about it. People dont 'expect' you to do anything because they are thinking about other problems, the problems that affect them. Sorry if that sounds harsh, I think its the truth.

BillyHaelyRaeCyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121518887#Comment_121518887

Ok, so heres a better way of phrasing it. What is going to happen to us in the long term. Like the over 50% of people in their 20s and 30s that either rent, many in house shares, or live at home. A very large amount will never own. The current social welfare policy is to subsidise the rent of workers in the private rental market. So where are we going to live if its impossible to actually make housing affordable

Tombo2001

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121518897#Comment_121518897

Honestly - if it was me - if I was 25 and earning 40k a year and really really wanted to buy a house, first thing I would do is leave Dublin.

BillyHaelyRaeCyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121518904#Comment_121518904

Im in my 30s. I wont be making 40k outside of Dublin.

And that advise is basically saying working class people should not exist in Dublin.

I know how other countries deal with it. They have a functioning long term rental market. In Germany (and most of Central and Eastern Europe as far as I know) when you sign a lease you have lifetime fixed rents like a mortgage does. So what starts off as a salaried rent becomes affordable on a pension over the lifetime of the lease due to inflation.

Tombo2001

OK - but if you are waiting for a state solution to your problems, you will be 50. And thats being optimistic.

Hence, saying what I would do.

BillyHaelyRaeCyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121518953#Comment_121518953

I've had the mistake of personalising these posts before and it goes nowhere.

Im talking about perhaps a million people in 30 - 40 years retired without owning a home. Maybe the plans is we all inherit. Although I cant see how that works when we still wont have enough homes for our population. What did single people do in the past in retirement?

Tombo2001

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121518965#Comment_121518965

You are right - and to some degree I was being flippant and short sighted.

It does affect me. At the moment peripherally - schools in Dublin cant get teachers. When the kids get older it will affect me a lot more.

SharkMX

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121518965#Comment_121518965

Im trying to buy now and its proving difficult. I i wait much longer i'll only be able to get a shorter mortgage. Time is my enemy.

But im not so stupid as to think that voting SF will get me a house. Id have to be now trying to buy one myself for that.

BillyHaelyRaeCyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121518981#Comment_121518981

Our birthrate has dropped 50% in a decade because people cant have kids in house shares or mammys house. Helen McEntee even stated as much last week in a debate on immigration saying we need migrants to do the jobs to pay the pensions of the future because our birth rate is too low to keep up. Which in turn makes housing even worse

BillyHaelyRaeCyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121518989#Comment_121518989

I dont think SF can fix the housing issues directly. I know that FF and FG cant, or at least cant do it without hurting their own votes which they wont do in the short term. Maybe we will see a covid style response in 20 years when boomers are dead and renters become 40 - 50% of the voting public.

To be honest, I work for a Irish company, and I could see SF policies crashing inward investment and lowering immigration or leading to depopulation which would lower house prices. Wages rising is how it traditionally worked but since the 90s real wages have been falling while asset prices rise.

SharkMX

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121519014#Comment_121519014

So crash the country to bring down house prices. Yep, that'll get the votes.

nullzero

Mary Lou and the wing nuts.

Sinn Fein offering simplistic answers to complex questions.

Everything SF have claimed they can offer the electorate in recent years should be enough to set alarm bells ringing in any sane person's ears as all of it is pie in the sky unattainable politicing nonsense.

We all know the price of property is a joke in Ireland and needs to be addressed, offering soundbites instead of an actual well thought out road map out of this situation (which is what is needed) shows how insubstantial SF's ideas are. They've had a long time to formulate a real solution but we're still only getting soundbites.

Allinall

If all that happened was average house prices coming down to €300,000, not one extra person would be able to buy a house.

Without increase in supply, nothing will change.

Francis McM

If there was a property crash and house prices in Dublin fell to 300k, there would be a lot of people in huge negative equity and a lot of people out of work - just like the last time there was a crash. What developer is going to build houses now and train apprentices if the possible (some would say probable) leader of the incoming government in 18 months time wishes the price of Dublin houses to fall to 300k, which would mean few if any new houses would be built by the private sector. According to the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland (SCSI), the average cost of building a 3-bedroom house in Dublin is €371,311. - so builders and developers would not employ people or build if houses could be bought for an average 300k.

So SF would be making a much bigger problem / mess overall.... far fewer houses being built, huge lay-offs, huge negative equity ( for those who bought in 2023 for example ) , less property taxes / stamp duty / vat / taxes from builders etc.

And that fellow from Donegal, the hopeful Minister for finance who did not even complete his course in Letterkenny I.T. (or whatever it was / is called) - does he realise if there was a crash like last time and developers went bust, people handed back keys to properties etc, and many skilled building workers emigrated (same as last time), the government may not be able to borrow out of the crises like last time? Our national debt is what, 5 or 6 times higher per head now that just before the last crash in 2007 / 2008.

SharkMX

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121519037#Comment_121519037

Best not to let them near it then.

How long have SF had to get answers to the "How?" part when they make dramatic ill thought out announcements? Yet they still never come out with the "How?".

Bobson Dugnutt

Eoin’s book suggests that we wouldn’t need private developers. All tradespeople would work for a state building company.

Bluefoam

If house prices dropped to that level, you'd have a massive influx of foreign investment, houses would be bought up by investors and prices wouldn't be long shooting back up to their current rates & young buyers would be even more disadvantaged...

Ireland isn't much more expensive than much of the rest of the world when it comes to house prices... The key is getting more money into peoples pockets and managing the cost of living.

BillyHaelyRaeCyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121519037#Comment_121519037

I think middle aged home owners have no concept of what life is like for people in their 20s and 30s who don't own a home. My quality of life was better as a fresh grad call centre worker with cheap rent in 2012 than it is today on twice the salary

spaceHopper

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121518918#Comment_121518918

Those kind of rentals aren't from mom and pop landlords they are from instructions and unions.

We need to break the link between long and short term rental. Long term rental = state agency rental. Short term = private Landlord renting to Student, people starting out, just arrived here... eventually they move to either long term rental or buy their own place.

I think what MLMD is saying is we need to reduce building cost and revalue houses so that your average 420K house is now 300K. Banks would have to suck it up. If you are selling a house and buying again it's not so bad you get less and pay less too. The problems is I don't see it happening. We should have let it happen in 2008 but every CSI PPI has been all about getting back to peak prices.

BillyHaelyRaeCyrus

Would people on this forum support what happened across Europe in response to the post ww2 housing crisis. Building millions of cheap factory made assembly line flats in tower blocks on greenfield sites on the outskirts of major cities. For example the land between Dublin Airport and Swords or else south of Newcastle/citywest. We also wouldnt need anything but labourers to assemble onsite as they slot into place. Thats the jobs that unskiled Irish lads did in England in the 50s, 60s and 70s. It would be new Ballymuns but working class ghettos seems a lot better than no working class housing. Id live in one.

Bobson Dugnutt

Eoin’s radical plan for housing.

BillyHaelyRaeCyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121519090#Comment_121519090

Thats my solution. Much better than the studio i pay half my wages for. Much better than renting from a landlord with no security. Much better than having massive homlessness of elderly people in 40 years when my generation retires.

If wages cant buy homes, than cheaper homes are the only solution

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121519004#Comment_121519004

The average family has been going in one direction for years now. That's was long before house shares or mammys house as you claim. We still have a high home ownership rate and the majority of houses been build are been bought by people to live in. Yes some people are in house shres etc but the claim that is the reason the birth rate is down is incorrect.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121518850#Comment_121518850

300k is for a house, how much is an apartment?

Dublin and other cities need to stop building houses and mass building of apartments like every other European city, sorry every other city in the World. Houses at this stage are too expensive, too slow and take up too much land for the population growth