"average Dublin house prices should fall to ‘the €300,000 mark" according to Many Lou McD.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121856887#Comment_121856887

Paddy Power are not the all seeing eye of politics.

Also, those odds are specific to leader, not party.

If you asked the same question to most political commentators, they would not agree that it is 3 times more likley SF will govern vs FF or FG.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121856887#Comment_121856887

I have just explained in simple language how the odds for next Taoiseach are unrelated to the odds of Sinn Fein being in government because of complications around the formation of coalitions and potential retirements of leaders. Paddy Power are not currently offering odds on which parties will form the next government.

Your example is like using the odds of next manager to be sacked to determine which club is going to win the league.

The odds on who the next Taoiseach in Ireland will be are that, no more, no less. They tell us very little about which parties will be in government.

Similarly, Sinn Fein are favourites to be the largest party after the next election, they were also the largest party after the last election, but they ended up in opposition. Pretty much the same outcome is likely.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121857056#Comment_121857056

The odds for SF to be the largest party are even stronger. The bookies prediction is SF as the largest party in Ireland, with Mary Lou as our Taoiseach, by quite a considerable margin.

These aren't just the odds with Paddypower either, its the same with any bookie that offers political betting.

Political commentators have no skin in the game, it costs them very little personally when they're wrong. And/or they have their own political biases. Their predictions are far less accurate than the bookies. Because when the bookies are very wrong it costs them prohibitively large sums of money.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121857445#Comment_121857445

"the odds for next Taoiseach are unrelated to the odds of Sinn Fein being in government" - actual lol. Do you think Mary Lou is going to get voted in as Taoiseach if SF aren't in government? Do explain how exactly?

Mary Lou having the lowest odds of becoming Taoiseach means the bookies think SF are going to be a dominant party in our next government. Because if they aren't she won't be becoming Taoiseach. Surely thats rather obvious.

If our current FF/FG/Green government is returned, as the poster I was replying to claimed is odds on, Mary Lou is not going to be our Taoiseach. But thats not the most likely outcome in the next election according to every bookmaker in the country.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121858100#Comment_121858100

Sinn Fein are the largest party in the current Dail, they are not in government.

Neither of the two sets of betting odds that you have produced say anything about the likely formation of the next Government.

They say a certain number of things as follows:

1. Sinn Fein are likely to be the largest party in the Dail after the next election, according to the bookies, like duh, have you seen an opinion poll?
2. MLMD is most likely to be still party leader after the next election, again duh, If Leo or MM drop seats, they are dead meat, MM will resign rather than go into coalition with SF, MM and LV have more chance of losing their seats than MLMD, therefore those possibilities reduce their likelihood of being Taoiseach, even if their parties are in government.
3. If SF do go into government , they will be the largest party and more likely to have Taoiseach post, whereas MM and LV, if they end up in government are 50/50 on who is Taoiseach first.

As I said already, the odds tell us nothing about likely government, only about what they say they are about.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121858116#Comment_121858116

You really don't understand betting odds.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121858119#Comment_121858119

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121858124#Comment_121858124

Its rather hilarious seeing you tie yourself in knots trying to ignore the numbers here. The bookies figures aren't political, they're based on cold hard money. "the odds for next Taoiseach are unrelated to the odds of Sinn Fein being in government" is a genuinely hilarious line of argument of yours, you've either got no understanding of Irish politics or are deliberately trying to ignore the real world.

There is absolutely zero possibility for Mary Lou to be Taoiseach if our current government is returned.

If the most likely outcome of the next election was a return of our current government then the favourites to be Taoiseach would be one or both of Martin and Varadkar. They're not, by a long shot.

The odds for our next Taoseach tell us very explicitly who is most likely to be leading our next government. Which is Mary Lou apparently, by a large margin. Which will require SF being in government, ie a rather significant change in government.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121858149#Comment_121858149

Let's wait and see. In terms of numbers if I was you I wouldn't be lecturing anyone. Remember the old tax post 😂

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121858149#Comment_121858149

If the most likely outcome of the next election was a return of our current government then the favourites to be Taoiseach would be one or both of Martin and Varadkar. They're not, by a long shot.

Whatever about anything else, this simply isn't true as both of their odds will be essentially doubled by the nature of the arrangement.

Hawkeye123

The Irish government does not want house prices to fall because if they do, people who find themselves in negative equity will stop paying their mortgages and house prices will go into a downward spiral. It cost the state 200 billion to inflate house prices in the first place so falling house prices is a big no no for the government.

Consequently, when the ECB started hiking interest rates a year or two ago, and Ireland's house prices showed signs of levelling off. The government responded by easing lending standards to ensure more people could borrow more money so that house prices would continue to rise. At the time, I predicted the return of the 110% mortgage because like I say, the government really really really DO NOT want house prices to fall.

Well, this morning I read in the Irish Times that the talk in the Oireachtas is that multinationals have a big issue with the housing crisis and the blame is being put (by whom I can guess) on the tighter lending standards introduced following the 2008 housing crash.

So kids, expect to be able to borrow more in the near future. Your bigger mortgage is what will keep house prices on an upward trajectory for the time being.

The thing is, I think the multinationals are going to downsize or withdraw from Ireland anyway over the next few years, (due to other reasons).

So, we will be left with people who are unemployed, with 110% mortgages, and a national debt of 240 billion, (most of which was used to re-inflate a bubble in house prices), and of course we will then have a newly popped bubble in house prices to contend with.

Given the EU's sticky inflation, I doubt borrowing another 200 billion to re-blow the house bubble again is an option. The time is coming to pay the piper folks.

blackwhite

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121858149#Comment_121858149

Firstly - odds aren't set based solely on who the bookmaker thinks will win - it's also weighted by what their exposures from pre-existing bets is. So the odds on MLMD will already be dampened due to people having placed bets on her being the next Taoiseach when SF were polling at 7-9% higher than they currently are.

Secondly - the odds also factor in the likelihood of any particular party leader being ousted by their party before the next Taoiseach is elected by the Dáil.

Hence you've Martin at 4-1, but also McGrath at 25-1; and Varadkar at 4-1 but also Coveney at 14-1 and Donohue at 33-1. For SF, you've MLMD at 8-13, but Doherty only at

66-1.

Current PP odds are

MLMD 8/13 ~ 61.9%

MM 4/1 ~ 20.0%

LV 4/1 ~ 20.0%

Coveney 14/1 ~ 6.7%

McGrath 25/1 ~ 3.8%

Pascal 33/1 ~ 2.9%

Pearse 66/1 ~ 1.5%

Ryan 125/1 ~ 0.8%

Translate those odds to probabilities and it comes to approx. 63% probability for a SF Taoiseach vs 54% probability for a Taoiseach from one of the Govt parties - so SF approximately one-sixth more likely to lead the next Govt according to the bookies. That's not a large margin by any means, and is already weighted by SF likely having attract more bets during the period that they were polling at higher levels than currently.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121860309#Comment_121860309

So just to reiterate. The poster I replied to claimed the current government are most likely to be returned.

I replied saying the bookies odds suggest otherwise.

The odds, and your post, suggest exactly what I said - the current gov are not in fact the most likely to be returned. An SF government is currently the most likely election outcome.

The cold hard statistics of this seem to have triggered a few posters in the thread.

blackwhite

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121860521#Comment_121860521

Again - the odds reflect two things - not solely what the bookies believe is the most likely result.

Betting placed during 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 all weigh into the odds offered by the bookies also, and based on polling during those years it's likely that weighting is also skewed towards MLMD and will have the impact of dampening the odds offered by bookies on her.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121859552#Comment_121859552

....increasing credit into housing markets is actually what causes house price inflation, this can come from individuals and/or from investment funds, including pension funds etc, this is occurring all over the world in most advanced economies, resulting in housing bubbles...

...this overall approach is known as financialisation, and its causing extremely serious property problems, and subsequent social problems, virtually everywhere it has been implemented....

...our national debt didnt actually go directly into inflating house prices, but went into filling the holes left in the balance sheets from the crash, bond holders etc....

...this debt would have been far better spent on our actual needs at the time, including building more public and social homes, as it was noted at the height of the crash that we were in fact running out of properties, particularly in the dublin region....

...some of this debt should have also been invested in other critical needs including major infrastructure needs, present and future needs....

...but instead, austerity was 'chosen' as the 'best' policy, and what a monumental success story it was and is!

...oh mnc's aint goin anywhere, so relax!

...national or public debt isnt necessarily a bad thing, but it does depend what it is used for, yes it can be used to inflate the price of assets, but if it used to actually build and create new assets such as housing, thats a good use of it....

again, or problem is actually with credit, credit comes from the financial sector itself, as banks create it, but since we ve convinced ourselves that publicly created money such as deficit created money, is simply the work of the devil, this in turn forces us towards bank created credit for our needs, and it now is primarily being used to inflate the price of assets such as, and in particular property, we may never move back towards running deficits for some of our needs, including housing.....

...so basically, we re stuck, stuck with severely dysfunctional property markets, hyper inflated property prices, and serious supply problems, indefinitely...

...sorry folks, but you re kids, grand kids, nieces and nephews are now completely fcuked in regards their property needs....

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121860529#Comment_121860529

But, again, you can make efforts to downplay the MLMD lead, but the odds are still very clearly not pointing towards a a return of the current government.

This isn't even just the bookies alone, as polls show the same thing:

"When it comes to choosing a coalition option for the next government, 27 per cent of voters support a continuation of the present Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael-Green coalition, marginally ahead of having a government led by Sinn Féin without either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael at 25 per cent.

A Sinn Féin-Fianna Fáil coalition is the top choice for 11 per cent, followed by a Sinn Féin-Fine Gael coalition at 6 per cent. Almost one in five voters (17 per cent) would prefer to see another combination, while 14 per cent are undecided."

44% for a government with SF in it, vs 27% for a return of the current government.

And:

"89 per cent of voters would like to see a change to the way in which the country is run.

One in every two voters (51 per cent) support moderate change, while 38 per cent are in favour of radical change. Only a small minority (8 per cent) are wary of change and 3 per cent are undecided."

Again, very clearly suggesting the statement "the current government are most likely to be returned" is an incorrect statement.

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2023/09/29/poll-shows-the-vast-majority-of-irish-voters-want-change/

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121858100#Comment_121858100

Largest party yes, very likley - leading a govt, not so likley.

But we will see.

Clo-Clo

Has Sinn Fein come out yet to confirm teh 300k price or was it just the usual noise from them?

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121860309#Comment_121860309

You have dismantled his points far better than I did.

A 63% probability for a SF Taoiseach based on the bets already placed to date is quite low. As you say, those odds are weighted by existing exposure.

We probably won't see odds on the parties to form the next government until after the European elections. Those will tell us a bit more.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121860583#Comment_121860583

Pretty pointless stats because 25% (2nd largest vote) saying they would hypothetically like to see a SF led govt without FFG, is ignoring the reality that the composition of such a govt is almost impossible.

SF get in with FF's blessing.

If they dont have FF as a coalition partner they cant reasonably form a govt.

Hawkeye123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121860557#Comment_121860557

I actually agree with a lot of this. But about the multinationals, I did not mean to say they will all pull out or downsize but if a recession were to cause a contraction of say 5% in the multinational sector in Ireland, and if that translated to a spike in mortgage defaults, and if those defaults resulted in a drop in house prices, then we would have a small number of mortgage holders in negative equity. If some of those people were to go on a mortgage payment strike, house prices would fall a little further.

This scenario would not be so bad if that was all that happened and if the multinational sector recovered and carried on, then house prices would resume their upward tradjectory.

But the economy of the western world and Europe in particular is facing some very serious challenges. For example, a couple of days ago, Powell in the US wanted to reassure investors and mortgage holders that interest rates would still be cut this year. Immediately the US dollar lost value which means US inflation will rise, making it harder to cut interest rates. Then there are the geopolitical challenges to global trade and the fact that a Trump victory would result in some of the multinationals here, moving their opperations to the US.

We`ll see what happens.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121860529#Comment_121860529

Indeed. Their odds factor in risk they are already exposed to from previous bets, when SF were riding high.

I dont know if the odds factor in likley trajectories of voting intent, which would currently see SF on a downward trend.

Geuze

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121861610#Comment_121861610

Bear in mind that the 300k applies only to 4,000 or 8,000 new houses to be built per year, according to the SF plan.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121862079#Comment_121862079

THose 4-8k the ones that people think will be free houses and thats why they are voting for them :-)

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121862079#Comment_121862079

They have also said that average prices in Dublin should be 300k.

4k homes or whatever can be priced at any value, since they can be purchased/owned by the govt and sold as affordable at whatever price the govt decide.

Yet the prices those 4k sell at have almost zero bearing on the macro level price for the other 2.1 million homes in the state.

Its just typical SF populist nonesense.

Hawkeye123

Well, today's indo says a court has just forced a vulture fund to give an insolvent homebuyer a long term mortgage.

If bad debts are now a worse investment than before, their value will fall further.

Yes, financialization is an issue but it has QE at it's root. You are right, it will continue because it looks like the central banks are going to surrender to inflation.

Gold may be the only way young people can hope to gain home ownership now.

Hawkeye123

The reason the central bank expects house completions to hit 35000 this year is because that is less than what is required. Ensuring fewer houses than required get completed is government policy. They think that will keep house prices rising in perpetuity.

They are wrong, it won't.